Happy Post Thanksgiving Blog - Markets and where these are headed going into 2016?

Happy Post Thanksgiving Blog - Markets and where these are headed going into 2016?

Started writing the blog in Hong Kong and now continuing to write in Singapore (a truly amazing city - so clean - it is like spotless). Still writing (now from Singapore lounge - Hong Kong airport is soooo much better).. 

Schizophrenic markets controlled by Central Bank speak and driving us crazy.. Down one day and up another just because of Central Banks (specifically Draghi - he is becoming such an annoyance) - Eurzone economy sucks - just suck it up and go home. What a waste of time. Well we had two days of trading on the downside and after the stupid huge ramp on Friday, because of options expiration and Draghi speak, we still expect the markets to stay range bound due to Q4 seasonality and technically weak. Energy stocks are crashing and our theme has been consistent on the energy stocks - stay away from these and our target for oil was between 35-60 - now we are at the low end of this range - tough to say where it goes - commodity complex is crashing and I was told that folks who bought real estate in many places (folks who were in the commodity business) are trying to dump their real estate holdings to pay off debts and get liquid. The COMMODITY boom is way over.. What happens to gold?? This will be tough sledging for gold with rate hikes coming. Negative interest rates in the Eurozone - who ever thought we would have negative interest rates - these are truly amazing times and the printing binge is not ending - then Saudi Arabia just secured financing for the tallest building in the world - Who the fuck wants to live in Saudi Arabia other than the fu%$$ng Arabs in such hot weather and crappy place. Having lived in the Middle East for a long part of my life - I hated every minute of it there. Someone's ego needs to be stoked - Alwaleed Bin Talal!! Ridiculous - this country is going broke and they are worried about tallest building in the world. Such BS..These people will never learn - they are here to just stoke their stupid egos.. 

Finally able to write freely after the stupid censors and blogging restrictions, 2 days of overcoming food poisoning in China - makes you wonder how is this country going to really move into the 21st century if it blocks freedom of speech, gets away with human rights violations and yet we welcome it everywhere - sounds too hypocritical to me. But, the progress in China is unbelievable - they keep on building - i think I counted over 500 cranes (since I was bored) in the taxi from Dongguan to Shenzhen. Crazy. There is no stopping the real estate train in China - not happening..Who knows where and how this will end - but right now it keeps chugging along. Travelled to India on this trip another crazy place with so much traffic, pollution and no control - and yet people keep talking about the Indian economy growing - where - it is predominantly driven by real estate, black money and infrastructure sucks, loans are defaulting and banks keep lending. The world is going crazy with the carry trade and there is no telling what the outcome is going to be. Right now everyone is acting like a drunken sailor and there is non stop money printing going on with no end in sight. Sounds like the good old Roman empire days..Well thanksgiving was great for the markets and black Friday looked good except online buying was even stronger. Then Yellen spoke and we had two down days right after that markets bounced on Draghi speaking.

It is typically a strong part of the year for the markets so you would have to buy the dips here - in strong stocks, typically Q4 is the best performing quarters and with quite a bit of under performance this year for many funds including hedge funds, we would expect a run on stocks going into the end of the year primarily in the big names that are holding the markets up - what we call the Trojan horses - AMZN,NFLX,GOOGL,FB,BIDU,BABA, and many others in this list and also top names that are underperforming this year will be picked up just to show good or at par performance relative to the markets - so our position would be to go net long here in the big names and ULTA also fits into that list. We stated in our previous blogs and on twitter that we liked the tobacco stocks(MO and PM) and LLY. We were net long the market with these stocks and these performed well for us. We have been short puts on YHOO - we like the idea of the sale of the core business - stock could go to 40.

Please do check out our site for our great buy/sell signals - we have been posting the charts on twiiter (follow @trucharts) - we have some amazing buy/sell signal strategies and we followed them for the energy stocks and that saved us a ton of money - specially stocks like SDRl, RIG, XOM, CVX and XLE. 

For 2016, we expect huge challenges for the markets due to lowered earnings and there is lot of technical issues with the markets that do not suggest a higher market - narrow breadth, leadership and overvaluation in many sectors - tech specifically. We would stay in some consumer staples with dividend stocks and stocks which have proven earnings power and options for hedging.  AAPL going into Q1 still looks good - but we would would hedge our position. Watch VIX closely - whenever it shoots to 30 - 40 range - start buying and we would sell biotech here - biotech bubble is over. Good luck trading.

Trucharts Founder/CEO and team
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