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Showing posts with label BIOTECH. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BIOTECH. Show all posts

August 26, 2018

Do we keep buying or sell here..

Trucharts Blog 8/24/2018

Do we keep buying or sell here...


Such a conundrum buy or sell. Stocks keep moving up on the Nasdaq - this is very reminiscent of the 2000 bubble - the Dow Jones moved up first, stagnated and then the NASDAQ took over. We are seeing so much froth - in all stocks and at prices that are exhibiting absolute bubble characteristics. But yet stocks keep moving up - and we believe this may be driven by FOMO and central banks seeing the US economy as strong and buying stocks - think about that central banks buying stocks. Never has that happened in the history and ever since central banks have been in existence - money printing has become the norm and no longer an exception. Risk metrics are being thrown out the window and the predictions are getting frothier each day as if there will be no event that will kill this bull market. Valuations for all metrics are at the highest ever and yet there is not a sign of even a single bear on TV. Just run a check on price to book and price to sales along with PE screeners and you will see what we see as the most frothiest market ever. Every deal is getting funded and VCs are raising funds at an unprecedented levels. Everyone is an investing genius when all assets are moving up.. Very typical behavior at the top of bull markets.. You can never call a top until all leading stocks start breaking down.


Anyway - that was a short treatise on our thoughts as to where we are in this stage of the longest bull market in history. We are witnessing one of the biggest bubbles - and we do not know when or how this will end. In this market a $10B market capitalization is considered to be very low. Companies like VEEV, NOW, ALGN, and many others have revenues of no more than $2.2B but their market caps exceed over $78B - total annual revenue for these companies - $4.7B - so the multiple is - 16.59 - so for every dollar in revenue - people are willing to pay $16.59 - hmm - and the Fed says there is no bubble or folks come on TV and say - it is all great - bubbles are made this way.. 


On another note - marijuana stocks CGC and TLRY are trading at P/S of over 150 - so people are paying $150 per ever $1 of revenue - TOTAL MADNESS.


But these thoughts aside, we know this is an excellent market for trading and making money on a short term basis and also by the use of options or intra day or even from day to day trading. We are seeing machines doing a lot of the trading based on very elemental trading signals and this tells us that fundamentals do not matter - no matter what anyone is saying - there is froth, technical trading and money is being made at a frantic pace..


Using options or put spreads for stocks that are moving sideways or are in an uptrend is a very good way to generate income on your portfolio - candidates for these type of spreads would be CAT, DE, EA, IBM, ATVI, MNST, QCOM, INTC


No charts this week but checkout some new features on our site like our dynamic screener at with multiple options for screening:

http://www.trucharts.com/drpScanner.aspx

Our single variable scanner at:
http://trucharts.com/Scanner.aspx

We are planning to go long BIDU, EA, QCOM and INTC. We are heading into the AAPL announcement in September so you can be long stocks supplying to AAPL - like IDTI, INTC and others.

Good luck trading - check out our buy/sell signals on our page http://trucharts.com/Stockcharts.aspx

Subscribe and get access to all our features along with notifications..

Good luck trading.

Trucharts Founder

June 27, 2017

Mr. Market, Yellen, Gold, Tech stocks and bubbles

Markets, Yellen, Fed, gold, Tech stocks and bubbles

Well another week and Monday markets were up and all the bulls were running around predicting that the markets were headed higher. Sure enough we had a down week last week and Grandma Yellen's move to tighten is still being partially ignored by the markets. TLT or bonds were moving higher with yields moving down. We like TLT and have been long since 120. Check the chart here:


There was a heavy rotation into the biotech stocks this past week. The move in the biotech ETFs such as XBI, IBB and BIB were excellent and look like weekly breakouts. We expect these to move higher based on their weekly chart patterns. Check these charts below and we would expect a pullback before we would take any long positions.

Weekly charts:



We believe the rotation is coming out of tech stocks and moving into alternate investments that have been lagging. There is no question that we are in a bubble mode for all assets - the question is, when will this bubble burst. Over 90% of the tech stocks are trading at ridiculous PEs and valuations (that are above the 2000 stock bubble). 

Even with Fed tightening, central banks around the world are still in easing and loose monetary policy mode. 

Gold has been bouncing around this level between 1200 - 1330 for quite some time. Technicals are negative and we have to see a decisive break above the weekly moving averages of 13, 50 and 100 to turn bullish. We do not see that happening unless there is a monetary crisis a.k.a China Yuan or some other country currency crashing.

In the tech stocks we like, QCOM and WDC. These stocks relative to their peers are cheap and have good dividends and low PEs. We also like Alibaba - BABA, TWTR (if weekly close above $19.5) and would short NVDA. Please keep tight stops at 5% below 50d SMA or 20 week SMA. You can find these values on our site when you plot the charts on the www.trucharts.com/stockcharts.aspx page. 

We have added new features such as customizable multiple screener for various technical signals on our site under "Screener" menu option - check it out.  

We have video tours of our site on how to use the site effectively - please do check it out.

We have a discounted subscriber pricing which is at $10 per month or $120 annually. Please check this out on our subscriber page.

Good luck trading.

B. Bhatia
Founder/CEO - Trucharts.com


February 22, 2016

Markets Post Xmas hangover, SP500 line in the sand breached and how to prepare for 2016; The movie "The Big Short"

Markets Post Xmas hangover - SP500 line in the sand breached and how to prepare for 2016; 

The movie "The Big Short"

Ok it has been a REALLY long time since I updated my blog. Was out of it for a while for many reasons but suffice to say that I will do my best to keep our readers updated as much as I can on the latest conditions about the happenings in the markets and my predictions.

Well we have had a helluva of a ride in January and thank the Lord we were short. I was expecting some run up into the 1st week but that did not happen. We knew that the 2015 end of the year ramp was a who can beat the next fund manager race and we made money in it while the going was good and then the bottom fell out of the markets - I guess they are saying oil - but we beg to differ - we think oil was one factor but in addition the markets were, and are, still overvalued. We had the standard drop to old support and the standard "W" bounce backup - very textbook pattern and we expect the markets to move up to the 50d SMA coming in from an oversold condition, high bearishness and elevated volatility. Personally I think we are headed lower but for the short term the bulls have the upper hand. And with Grandma Yellen and the Fed out of the way for March - the party is on.. We said short many of our favorites like - IBB, QCOM, AMBA, FIT and many more - we covered a lot of these shorts and are planning to cover some more this week to have some ammo for some short term long trades. We like a paired trade like long AMGN short IBB and writing weekly calls and puts. In addition, BIDU is reporting this week, as is HD. We are looking to go long BIDU and waiting to short HD if their earnings/forecast do not look strong. We think HD is topped out - but we need confirmation that the housing is sort of peaking out here.

I personally believe that the Superbowl 50 was the mark of the super debt and commodity cycle. Gold - our favorite metal did well - but we need to wait for a nice pullback and consolidation. In the end gold is the best currency. As I write this gold is down 20+ and markets are rocking!! We have to see the bears capitulate a little bit before the next leg down. Be nimble..

Now for my rant on politics in the USA - It is the biggest sham ever put in the face of the public. It is such a shame that there is no real leaders in this amazing country where we had folks like Abraham Lincoln and so many more Presidents that made us feel proud to be an American - After George Bush Sr - it has been all downhill - Obama - fuck Obamacare - the worst health care law ever enacted - - we do not live in a free market society - we live in a collusion/cartel of insurance company health care system along with the drug companies - go see how the biotech execs have been cashing out of their stock - mind blowing, to say the least.. Hillary - liar and panderer, Trump Incompetent - no idea what he is talking about or saying, Sanders - Give everything for free and blame the corporations except the fucking government - Cruz - owned by the Big Boys as is Rubio - thank God Jeb is gone, as is Christie - owned by the mafia and even looks like the Mafia and I feel sad for Rand Paul - not that I agree with everything he says - but he was a really good candidate - and the media just keeps giving Trump so much free advertising and you can tell the media is so totally biased with the incessant analysis is way beyond crazy.. Where do people find so much time?? None of the candidates are even worth becoming vice president - much less president. Sad state of affairs for this amazing country - what blows my mind is how people even listen to Hillary talk - she is speaks from both sides of her mouth - saying one thing and at the same time telling herself how stupid the citizens of this country are. It is truly mind boggling. Our votes have no meaning - that is how the whole system is designed. All these debates are just a show and nothing else - Hillary will be president - that is the plan and Trump is part of this whole sham. Noise in the system..

Now for one of the best movies of all time - goes in my top 10 list - "The Big Short" - Please see this movie and it will teach you why sometimes you have to go against the crowd. When we were running our hedge fund ( I wish we had known about the insurance on CDSs') - anyway we were short the housing market - and no one would believe us and they started pulling their money out of our fund. After the crash of 2008-2009 - people agreed that we were right. We see the same state of housing - I know I may be early - but the tell tale signs are there - and it will come crashing again. It is like a double top and that is what I believe we are witnessing - easy credit and easy money printing and bubble blowing by the Fed - Big Ben and then his apparent clueless prodigy Grandma Yellen - what a disaster. The Fed has done nothing, along with the bankers of this country - then ruin the whole economy - it is easy when money is free to print - we are in debt to our eyeballs and yet we act like - no big deal. At the rate we are going - we will cross 20T this year.. States are going to go broke and then the government will too.. Buy gold, land and hoard cash because they are going after our retirement accounts soon.. It is coming - be ready..

Anyway - I am travelling again after a long period of some sickness - in Hong Kong waiting for my flight to India and then going to China on my way back to start a new business venture. I will keep trading as I love it and it is one of my passions.  Do check out our site - we have made many changes and improvements and do subscribe - it helps pay for our self funded developers/server and data charges and keeps us motivated to do more. Not to brag - but I do think we have a very unique site and for the end user we provide some of the best features. We are working on more features and will keep doing so. We have the best buy/sell signals with our proprietary strategies - check these out on the stockcharts page.

Good luck trading and best wishes.

B Bhatia
Founder/CEO trucharts.com

September 3, 2015

Why bubbles exist and monetary policy is still easy!!

Why Bubbles exist and monetary policy:


Read this and see why we have bubbles everywhere - one day the fat lady will sing and (it happened in 2008), and the chicken will come home to roost. Thanks to the stupid Fed (Greenspan, Yellen and Bernanke) are all to blame and the US government was towing the line with Fannie And Freddie Mac which went bankrupt.. Unbelievable and now we are in another stock and real estate bubble in USA and many countries around the world due to the easy monetary policies.

http://www.businessinsider.com/worldwide-monetary-policy-in-one-chart-2015-9


Also watch this video - unbelievable - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYTyluv4Gws

From a trading perspective - we are still net short and our AMBA short worked very well, along with IBB short - we like this trade - long AMGN, short IBB. We are short tech stocks still - PYPL,INTC,SWKS.

Trucharts team

August 30, 2015

Fed Speak - What to do with your portfolio this week and market direction - UP or DOWN!

Fed Speak - What to do with your portfolio this week and market direction - UP or DOWN!


We just went through one of the most volatile weeks in the markets since the dog days of 2008-2009 financial crisis. Is China slowing, what is the Fed going to do and is the world headed into a recession? So many questions and the answers are not very clear. From a volatility perspective, the VIX hit the highest levels on Monday last week when the DOW traversed over 4500 points - this has never happened before - there were huge opportunities to buy at the lows that day and make a huge profit - volatility is truly a trader's gift and an easy way to generate some very quick profits - if you are a technical trader it becomes even easier. You have to make your preferred stock list and watch those only else you will not be able to choose during big market moves, like the one we had last Monday 8/24. We did make money as we were net short into the market and would have really preferred to get into some stocks that tanked at the open - we knew that the  markets would bounce - since it was an oversold condition and markets did rebound into the end of the week - just go check some of the low prices for some of the top stocks on 8/24. Several stocks opened down over 20% and then recovered very nicely. That is why you have to have cash set aside for trading on volatile days - because the returns can be magnificent. 

Markets rebounded over 1000 points on the DOW late into the week and many stocks bounced off the lows - there was short covering and some buying buy the big funds since they saw this as a huge buying opportunity - we saw the fund managers discussing this on TV. Volatility numbers are still high and we would expect volatility this week also. Major trend-lines have been broken and we have to test the trend-lines and the previous support levels (which are now resistance levels) for all the indices.

Fundamentally we do not think the economy or the tech stocks have bottomed - China slowdown and the issues/headwinds they are facing from their bad loans, high debts, exports slowing, over capacity are going to have repercussions around the world. US economy is still strong with the jobs numbers still ahead of the 200K/month magic mark and we think the Fed sees this and is ready to pull the trigger in September. We still suspect whether the Fed will actually raise the Fed Funds rate in Sept. We wil have to wait and see - from our perspective we do not think they have the 'guts' to do it. 

China intervention into their stock markets was one of the worst ideas and then they have been so reactive to every little piece of economic news, that they are acting like a 2 year old's in a candy shop. Lowering RR ratios, cutting interest rates, injecting cash, and so many others drastic measures, it makes one wonder what really is going on in China. 
Is it really that bad!!

There was The Jackson Hole meeting this weekend and the Fischer indicated that the Fed would move towards hiking rates. They know there is a bubble and they are trying to defuse it before it becomes bigger and then they are left with no tools to fight it. We will just have to wait and see with the numerous number of crazy commentary on CNBC and Bloomberg non stop about the Fed's plans. It is getting really ridiculous!!

As we write this futures are down - we expected that heading into Mondays' - typically weak in recent weeks.

Anyway, we expect the markets to consolidate here within a 500 point range - with a topside target of 17000 and low of around 16000. S$P500 to be range bound between 1920 and 2040 range. NASDAQ which was primarily up because of biotech stocks should start seeing some pullback. 

Use this opportunity to lighten up on tech stocks - fundamentally there has been no change in their outlook and forecasts - the trend is down and we expect it to stay that way. With Apple's event coming Sept 9th, we expect that the tech stocks may stay range bound here. We like SLAB for short term trade. We are short AMBA (earnings on Sept 1),SWKS,INTC,PYPL and MU. Our shorts did well for us during this downdraft. We were discussing topping action in the markets and we were ready for it. Long NFLX. We use options to hedge all our positions.

Commodities - oil bounced - expect that to be short lived - we are heading into the slowest season for oil - post summer time. Still some money to be made from short term trading here - check out chart for USO and OIL. Possibly very oversold - should go up for short term. Gold Bounced - we are keeping a close eye on this - as it is tied to the dollar - but with the weaker currencies abroad, we think gold can shine - wait and see.

Here are the charts for DIA daily and weekly - Daily chart shows an oversold condition and weekly is not oversold yet. Watch these carefully along with the VIX. We always trade stocks which have underlying options and are very liquid. We like DIS for short term - looks oversold. Do not like biotech - short IBB.

 

 


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We would love to get subscribers so we can keep the site going and it is the price of 2 lattes at Starbucks per month. 

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Good luck trading. Stay nimble.

Trucharts Team/Founder/CEO

August 23, 2015

Markets - What to do now? BUY,SELL,IGNORE,HOPE & PRAY


Markets - What to do now? BUY,SELL,IGNORE,HOPE & PRAY - Trucharts.com Weekly Blog Update - week ending 8/21/2015


Well we finally are getting some excitement in the markets.. Before we get into the gist of our discussion today after the amazing week we had - where the DOW plunged over 1000 points and VIX (volatility index) moved up finally, we would like to list the key viewpoints we have been discussing in our past blogs regarding the market action:

  • There has been sideways movements with triple digit moves every week (9-12 weeks)
  • Markets have been exhibiting very clear topping action
  • Narrow Breadth, narrow leadership, New Highs and New Lows ratio skewed to the downside
  • Oil and commodity complex crashing (we said oil dropping was a big deal)
  • China - China - China - over mired in debt and capacity in all sectors
  • WE HAD STATED THAT CHINA WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO DEVALUE AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THEY DID - IT WAS THEIR DEFACTO STIMULUS AND WE EXPECT FURTHER DEVALUATION OF THE YUAN - headed to 6.7-6.8 to USD range
  • Transports sector down
  • We have been saying sell into any rallies, take profits and hedge your positions
  • DO NOT listen to the talking heads on TV - it is all BS
  • NASDAQ was being buoyed by the biotech stocks and these were going to breakdown and were the new darlings of Wall Street along with the big internet names 
  • Earnings and Revenue forecasts were lower for the next qtr from many sectors -specially the tech sector
  • Valuations in many internet stocks like FB,PYPL,etc were at ridiculous and lofty levels along with the valuations being given to companies like UBER etc in the private placement
  • INTC and MU earnings were key and we had stated that the semi-sector was headed for a major slowdown. We said short INTC,AMBA,SWKS,HAL and MU 
  • We had hedged our longs with covered calls to reduce cost basis 
  • IBB ETF closed below 13 week SMA the week ending 8/14 for the first time in over 15 months
Well now everyone is wondering what next - what are you going to do with your portfolio - Well guess what - we are staying on the same viewpoint and thesis - Sell into rallies, take profits and short IBB (could be the best short). Markets will bounce - but these will be short lived - you can expect more volatility in the next few weeks. You will see clearly below in the charts below that major trendlines have been broken for all indices and the close below major moving averages is a big concern to us. We still like the INTC,MU,AMBA short and are shorting IBB/GILD. We were long NFLX - but with a covered call strategy. We will close half our position and wait for a better entry point. We will look to buy some index ETF on any bounce - target range for DOW is first support 16000 and then around 15000. We think PYPL could be another great short - we are short PYPL.

You can also use our BUY/SELL automated trading strategies on the stockview page to see where sell signals were generated and try to see which stocks in your portfolio are on a SELL signal - do this on weekly and daily charts for your stocks.


Here is the image of trading strategy box on the page above: You have to click to expand the box:



Here are some charts we would like to show this week - look at the trendline and averages - these are weekly charts - please look at RSI and MACD - these are headed down:

 

 



Good luck trading, take profits here and now, and sell into any rallies and wait for better entry points. DO NOT LISTEN to the talking heads on CNBC.

We love documentaries and our recommendation for this week is an amazing documentary on smart meters and why you should not allow these in your neighborhood - we live a world of tyranny and corporate corruption and power: You can see this one on AMAZON or YOUTUBE.

Trucharts Team/Founder/CEO

August 21, 2015

Markets - DOWN DOWN DOWN! - Read what we said!!

Markets --- DOWN DOWN DOWN! - Read what we said!!



Well there you have it - DOW down 530 points and NASDAQ down 171 wow!! Just go read all our blog entries and our tweets/fb posts on taking profits and hedging your positions with puts - we talked about the topping nature of the market and we covered some shorts this morning for a tidy profit - we were up all night thinking of trades to do this morning and then got the easy gift of DE (Deere) - we shorted right at the open. We have been short HAL, PYPL and IBB. We closed our IBB short call for 90% profit today - last week in our blog we picked IBB and HAL as top shorts along with PYPL and BABA, INTC, MU.

Good luck trading.. We told you so!!

Closed SWKS short.

Trucharts team



August 16, 2015

Is the bull run still intact - Markets ended below 50 day? Are you buying or selling? AAPL, NFLX, and the top horsemen

Is the bull run still intact - Markets ended below 50 day SMA? 

Are you buying or selling? 

AAPL, NFLX, Biotech and the top horsemen


What a week - but we ended the week with the market averages closing below their respective 50d SMAs. Looks ominous and then we had 5 days of non stop news of the Chinese Yuan devaluation - we had stated that this was the only option left for the Chinese and we do not think this is the end  the devaluation - the Chinese Yuan is headed to 6.8-7 relative to the USD. The currency is too strong and with the commodities in a complete crash scenario (from the slowdown in the Chinese economy), the Chinese government has to stimulate their exports by driving down the currency - just like all the other nations in the Pacific Rim - look at Japan.  

Markets moved sideways with minor moves up and down but still ended below their critical averages. We have been saying the markets have been going sideways with many 3 digit moves and topping action. Narrow breadth, narrow leadership, big stocks breaking down and a very high number of stocks below their 50d SMAs. Earnings have been lackluster and so have the forecasts. 

Investors and hedge funds are hiding in the high fliers and the consumer discretionary stocks - which are also starting to show some weakness. Some of the auto parts stocks are doing very well because of strong earnings reports. Dividend stocks are performing well due to the obvious benefits - although we think the dividends from the bigger oil players are at high risk of being cut due to the drop in oil prices and falling margins/profits. We would sell all the big oil stocks here if you own them and move money into cash or some other stocks like REITs and some of the other big industrial companies whose earnings look strong or are not affected by the commodity crash. Oil is headed lower and this creates a huge dilemma for the world over and especially the Middle East nations that rely heavily on oil exports for their economies. We are short HAL.

We have been saying to take profits in the tech sector after Micron (MU) and INTC earnings - this seems to have been the perfect call. Earnings were flat and forecasts going forward were lowered and sure enough all the semi stocks are being beaten down. We were short BABA into the earnings report, along with IBM - both of these shorts worked well for us. Sell AAPL and TXN. We are still short AMBA and SWKS and are looking to short MU.

Now let us look at the Biotech sector - especially the ETF IBB - it closed below the 13 week SMA for the first time in over 15 months and is starting to show technical weakness. We were short and did make money on some of our short calls and short puts. We are still staying short the IBB ETF and expect support for the short term at 50 week SMA at around 340. We think this could be the short of the century (our opinion entirely). Here is the chart:


You can clearly see support at the 50 week SMA.
We still do like AMGN - one of the only high dividend paying stocks in this sector. We would wait to go long AMGN.













We still like the REITs even though we think interest rates are going higher primarily the apartment REITs - with rents going through the roof - we think this will force the Fed to raise rates - rent is one of the components of the inflation index.

We expect the markets to test the 13 weeks SMA this week - around 17800 for the DOW and with the Greek Bailout approved by the Greek parliament - we would expect to see some bounce in the markets. 

Check the weekly charts with 13 week, 50 week, 100 week and 200 week SMA for all the indices on our site - you can use the big charts page at: http://www.trucharts.com/bigcharts.aspx

We have shown here below amazing results from our backtest strategy for IBB using the SMA cross with 14 day exit for 2000 bars - it showed a profit of over 211% - Amazing - we have the the snapshot below for part of the runs - an amazing number of profitable trades, just run the backtest feature and you can see for yourself with the numbers on the left hand side in the snapshot below.


Here is a chart of stock TRMB with our automated buy/sell strategy showing clear buy/sell signals on a weekly chart - a feature that is only offered on our site - to registered members only. This automated buy/sell signal could have made you money and saved you a lot of grief. I hate to say it - we do not believe in buy and hold - that is for sissies.

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team

May 17, 2015

Where are the markets headed - UP or DOWN?

Trucharts.com - Blog Update - Week ending 5/15/2015

Where are the markets headed - up or down??

We were unable to publish our blog for week ending 5/8 as we were in China due to blogging restrictions. We are going to summarize the market events for the last two weeks and provide our outlook for the coming weeks and thoughts on some trading.

Well we noticed a pattern during the past two weeks - markets would be sluggish during the early part of the week and then ramp into the end of week trading - week of 5/8 we had a huge move on Friday and last week the big move occured on Thursday. Bonds which have been crushed for the past few months (see TBT chart below) bounced back and it is currently oversold and we expect TBT to move up to its 50d SMA. This will lead to a drop in yields in the coming weeks and interest sensitive stocks should move higher - housing stocks like DHI and LEN to move higher. Markets moved higher on Thursday due to the lower retail number print and the jobless claims number. The markets are totally schizoprehnic - every data point is like a tug of war between the bulls and the bears - but we think the bulls are winning.

The indices like S&P500 brokeout to a new high last week and we expect the move higher. Check the charts below for DIA, SPY, SVXY and TNA. With the Fed pumping money into the economy and staying on the sidelines with the low or ZIRP will drive stocks higher. The Fed is stuck in a corner and we have been saying this for weeks. There is internal strife within the Fed governors and there is lot of jawboning going on the interest rate hike front. This is creating a stable trading environment in stocks - we especially like the drug stocks and stocks with weekly option expirations. The NASDAQ moves are being dictated by the biotech stocks. We expect the biotech ETFs to move higher here - these have still not closed below the 13 week SMA.

Our USO position closed on Friday, we are looking to go long BIDU,TWTR. Oil did bounce back and is back at being above $60. Gold rallied and we expect a pullback. The Greece situation has been nothing but noise. Eurozone economies did well due to the pullback in the Euro, but the markets saw a pullback last week. China is in a bubble and will not end until everyone is loaded up - there is a billionaire being made every week - reminds us of the 2000 Nasdaq tech bubble. 

We are still long MO,DNKN,BIDU and we will close our BOX position this week.

ISEE C/P ratio hit a new 52 week high on Thursday - it recorded a reading of 228 and that means over 2.2 calls were being bought for every put. This typically points to a higher market. Hedges are cheap now as volatility is low and we recommend buying some SPY puts and or puts for your positions at 10% below for 30d out timeframe.

Checkout our backtest article we posted last week for our site and also check out excellent subscription rates for full access and it is currently discounted at 50% for one year access - here is the link - http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx and we would really appreciate if you can spread the word for our site - and create a buzz - we know we have one of the best stock charting sites on the web. We have updated our home page and are still adding features daily. Check these out and send us your feedback - support@trucharts.com - your feedback is so critical to help us improve our user experience. 

Closed EEM short.

Here are some articles for some good reading this week. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-16/what-goldman-telling-its-clients-sell-may-and-dont-come-back-one-year

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-16/one-gauge-investor-sentiment-just-hit-6-year-high

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-17/presenting-77-billion-p2p-bubble

Here are the charts we are watching this week:

 

 

 


Good luck trading. 

Trucharts Team


April 16, 2015

Just Keep Buying; Just Keep Buying -

Trucharts.com - Mid week markets update:

SEO: BIDU stock, BIOTECH, Blog, Free Stock Charts, Hedge Fund update, Hot stocks, TWTR, MO, MACD charts

The markets are on edging on the verge of a breakout - and looks like now we have to catch up with the bubbles in China, India and Hong Kong - money printing eventually always leads to bubbles and all the central banks do not care - under the guise of slowing economies - money printing and 0% interest rates are driving an asset and stock bubble - the central banks will never admit it, even if it is staring it right in their faces - since they are scared shit to raise rates. This has led to property bubbles and stock bubbles - no one can tell now when this will end - but when it does - watch out below - this is totally unsustainable and complacency is becoming the norm - unbelievable. Bubbles after bubbles and the only folks making money from this are the VC's who love companies with no earnings going IPO and they cash in really good. 

For now our motto is: like the fish in the NEMO movie says -  

"Just keep buying, just keep buying" (like "just keep swimming..."). 

We closed CAT today. Our SNDK short worked well and we will close position today. We like ETSY here but want to wait for a week to buy. Still long BIDU & USO (doing very well). Our MO position is also doing good and as is TWTR.

Trucharts team

March 29, 2015

What will markets do this week? Semi Stocks, and which stocks are on our buy list

Trucharts.com Blog - What will the markets do this week - and which stocks are on our buy list?

Where are the markets headed this week? The markets exhibited volatile behavior this past week. The DOW and the SP500 ended below their respective 50d moving averages. The markets closing below the 50d SMA is a sign of weakness and with the upcoming earnings season, it would be wise to take some profits here and wait to take positions after earnings season is over. The NASDAQ held up due to the biotech bounce and the semi stocks on Friday due to takeover talk of ALTR by Intel (INTC). We expect the bounce to the 50d moving averages for the DOW and the S&P. See the charts here below for the DOW and the S&P.




In the commodity complex, gold had rallied hard due to the conflict in the Middle East and the Eurozone uncertainty with Greece. Oil moved up and then pulled back Friday after Yemen was bombed by Saudi Arabia. We think this conflict and Eurozone uncertainty will keep oil and gold volatile in the coming weeks. We think the risks in stocks is growing and we also showed a chart of the margin debt in China used for trading and buying stocks on margin - here it is again:



The Fed indicated that rates will start rising gradually from September - we believe this is coming and the markets are starting to get ready for rates to move higher. Here is an excerpt from the weekly Mauldin Economics newsletter (you can subscribe at Mauldin Economics) - an excellent writer: We call it the world on a debt binge thanks to the Fed:

Quoted as is from 'Thoughts from the Frontline' by John Mauldin
Begin Quote


This report was underscored by a rather alarming, academically oriented paper from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), “Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage.” Long story short, emerging markets have borrowed $9 trillion in dollar-denominated debt, up from $2 trillion a mere 14 years ago. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard did an excellent and thoroughly readable review of the paper a few weeks ago for theTelegraph, summing up its import:
Sitting on the desks of central bank governors and regulators across the world is a scholarly report that spells out the vertiginous scale of global debt in US dollars, and gently hints at the horrors in store as the US Federal Reserve turns off the liquidity spigot….

“It shows how the Fed's zero rates and quantitative easing flooded the emerging world with dollar liquidity in the boom years, overwhelming all defences. This abundance enticed Asian and Latin American companies to borrow like never before in dollars – at real rates near 1pc – storing up a reckoning for the day when the US monetary cycle should turn, as it is now doing with a vengeance.”
End Quote

There were some interesting picks we made this week:

  1. SNDK short - staying short (company forecast lower revenue for the current qtr) - 
  2. TWTR long and still long - looking to add to our position - we like TWTR and believe that they are ready to ramp their revenue model via ads (like facebook). The weekly chart for TWTR looks good (TWTR chart). 
  3. Took a position in BIDU at 205 and are still long with a buy-write strategy. 
  4. Additional positions we have are short AEM, long USO. 
  5. Position in LLY was called away due to covered calls.
We wrote an article on IBB this week and showed that the weekly chart showed very good support at the 13 week and its 50 week average - here is the chart: We expect a pullback in IBB to the 13 week and if it closes below the 13 week, we expect a test of the 50 weeks SMA. Here is the chart:


Good luck trading.
Trucharts.com team

March 8, 2015

Trucharts.com - Markets, Hot Stocks, Blog week ending 3/6/2015

Trucharts.com Blog week ending 3/06 and Hot Stocks to Watch Week of 3/9
What a jobs report - wow!! - even our numbers were not close enough to the actual numbers. Our estimate for March jobs report was around 230K on the high side and the number came in at 295K and unemployment rate dropped to a respectable 5.5%. We do not expect any slowdown heading into the summer season - the US dollar rallied and gold got crushed - we stated that gold was heading down in our previous posts - and here comes the probability that the Fed will be pushed to raise the Fed funds rate by June - we expect even that if they raise it by 0.25bp - would still be too low to affect the markets. There will likely be a short-term pullback - we indicated in our posts on fb and g+ that the markets looked extended and a pullback to 2050 should be expected. Also Mar 9th will be the 6 year anniversary of the bull market. The markets will be on the watch out for Fed statements going forward and the strength of the US dollar maybe hurting the export driven companies, but is a good sign for the US and the US economy. There should be some concern around job losses related to the oil industry - which we would expect to see happen within the next few months. We heard on the news of layoffs from HP and Ebay. But job hiring scene is still strong in many sectors. Majority of the job growth was in the in the service industry in the March jobs report. With the Fed still staying the course with ZIRP - we expect that the markets will consolidate here with some pullback heading into the Q2 earnings season. Support for the S&P is in the 2050 area.
Check out the videos and articles we posted on our G+ and FB pages.
Market Stats (from finance.yahoo.com) Friday close:
DOW JONES IND: 17856.78 - DOWN -278.94; S&P500: 2071.26 - DOWN -29.78; NASDAQ: 4927.37 - DOWN -55.44
ADVANCERS/DECLINERS: NYSE: 308/1574; (RATIO ~ 1:3) - NASDAQ: 858/1944 (RATIO ~ 1:2)
UP VOL/DOWN VOL (Millions): NYSE: 673/3177 (~1:5); NASDAQ: 541/1308 (~1:3)
We have been short AEMIBB (has been hurting but is a hedged position), Long ANGITWTR, Z, USO, DATA, LLY.
All of pur positions have calls or puts written against the position(s).
Here are stocks we are watching this week: Looking to short RGLD (or buy puts), Short UAL or buy puts and USO looks like it is pointing to lower oil prices - we have covered calls on USO. Here are the charts.
USO Stock ChartRGLD Stock ChartUAL Stock Chart
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


















 





 

 



Check out the charts we posted in our blog last week.

Good luck trading - please check our page - Why Trucharts.com at: http://truchartscom.blogspot.com/p/why-is-trucharts.html.

Trucharts Team