Happy Post Thanksgiving Blog - Markets and where these are headed going into 2016?
Started writing the blog in Hong Kong and now continuing to write in Singapore (a truly amazing city - so clean - it is like spotless). Still writing (now from Singapore lounge - Hong Kong airport is soooo much better)..
Schizophrenic markets controlled by Central Bank speak and driving us crazy.. Down one day and up another just because of Central Banks (specifically Draghi - he is becoming such an annoyance) - Eurzone economy sucks - just suck it up and go home. What a waste of time. Well we had two days of trading on the downside and after the stupid huge ramp on Friday, because of options expiration and Draghi speak, we still expect the markets to stay range bound due to Q4 seasonality and technically weak. Energy stocks are crashing and our theme has been consistent on the energy stocks - stay away from these and our target for oil was between 35-60 - now we are at the low end of this range - tough to say where it goes - commodity complex is crashing and I was told that folks who bought real estate in many places (folks who were in the commodity business) are trying to dump their real estate holdings to pay off debts and get liquid. The COMMODITY boom is way over.. What happens to gold?? This will be tough sledging for gold with rate hikes coming. Negative interest rates in the Eurozone - who ever thought we would have negative interest rates - these are truly amazing times and the printing binge is not ending - then Saudi Arabia just secured financing for the tallest building in the world - Who the fuck wants to live in Saudi Arabia other than the fu%$$ng Arabs in such hot weather and crappy place. Having lived in the Middle East for a long part of my life - I hated every minute of it there. Someone's ego needs to be stoked - Alwaleed Bin Talal!! Ridiculous - this country is going broke and they are worried about tallest building in the world. Such BS..These people will never learn - they are here to just stoke their stupid egos..
Finally able to write freely after the stupid censors and blogging restrictions, 2 days of overcoming food poisoning in China - makes you wonder how is this country going to really move into the 21st century if it blocks freedom of speech, gets away with human rights violations and yet we welcome it everywhere - sounds too hypocritical to me. But, the progress in China is unbelievable - they keep on building - i think I counted over 500 cranes (since I was bored) in the taxi from Dongguan to Shenzhen. Crazy. There is no stopping the real estate train in China - not happening..Who knows where and how this will end - but right now it keeps chugging along. Travelled to India on this trip another crazy place with so much traffic, pollution and no control - and yet people keep talking about the Indian economy growing - where - it is predominantly driven by real estate, black money and infrastructure sucks, loans are defaulting and banks keep lending. The world is going crazy with the carry trade and there is no telling what the outcome is going to be. Right now everyone is acting like a drunken sailor and there is non stop money printing going on with no end in sight. Sounds like the good old Roman empire days..Well thanksgiving was great for the markets and black Friday looked good except online buying was even stronger. Then Yellen spoke and we had two down days right after that markets bounced on Draghi speaking.
It is typically a strong part of the year for the markets so you would have to buy the dips here - in strong stocks, typically Q4 is the best performing quarters and with quite a bit of under performance this year for many funds including hedge funds, we would expect a run on stocks going into the end of the year primarily in the big names that are holding the markets up - what we call the Trojan horses - AMZN,NFLX,GOOGL,FB,BIDU,BABA, and many others in this list and also top names that are underperforming this year will be picked up just to show good or at par performance relative to the markets - so our position would be to go net long here in the big names and ULTA also fits into that list. We stated in our previous blogs and on twitter that we liked the tobacco stocks(MO and PM) and LLY. We were net long the market with these stocks and these performed well for us. We have been short puts on YHOO - we like the idea of the sale of the core business - stock could go to 40.
Please do check out our site for our great buy/sell signals - we have been posting the charts on twiiter (follow @trucharts) - we have some amazing buy/sell signal strategies and we followed them for the energy stocks and that saved us a ton of money - specially stocks like SDRl, RIG, XOM, CVX and XLE.
For 2016, we expect huge challenges for the markets due to lowered earnings and there is lot of technical issues with the markets that do not suggest a higher market - narrow breadth, leadership and overvaluation in many sectors - tech specifically. We would stay in some consumer staples with dividend stocks and stocks which have proven earnings power and options for hedging. AAPL going into Q1 still looks good - but we would would hedge our position. Watch VIX closely - whenever it shoots to 30 - 40 range - start buying and we would sell biotech here - biotech bubble is over. Good luck trading.
Trucharts Founder/CEO and team
BB
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Showing posts with label Bloggin restrictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bloggin restrictions. Show all posts
December 9, 2015
May 17, 2015
Where are the markets headed - UP or DOWN?
Trucharts.com - Blog Update - Week ending 5/15/2015
Where are the markets headed - up or down??
We were unable to publish our blog for week ending 5/8 as we were in China due to blogging restrictions. We are going to summarize the market events for the last two weeks and provide our outlook for the coming weeks and thoughts on some trading.
Well we noticed a pattern during the past two weeks - markets would be sluggish during the early part of the week and then ramp into the end of week trading - week of 5/8 we had a huge move on Friday and last week the big move occured on Thursday. Bonds which have been crushed for the past few months (see TBT chart below) bounced back and it is currently oversold and we expect TBT to move up to its 50d SMA. This will lead to a drop in yields in the coming weeks and interest sensitive stocks should move higher - housing stocks like DHI and LEN to move higher. Markets moved higher on Thursday due to the lower retail number print and the jobless claims number. The markets are totally schizoprehnic - every data point is like a tug of war between the bulls and the bears - but we think the bulls are winning.
The indices like S&P500 brokeout to a new high last week and we expect the move higher. Check the charts below for DIA, SPY, SVXY and TNA. With the Fed pumping money into the economy and staying on the sidelines with the low or ZIRP will drive stocks higher. The Fed is stuck in a corner and we have been saying this for weeks. There is internal strife within the Fed governors and there is lot of jawboning going on the interest rate hike front. This is creating a stable trading environment in stocks - we especially like the drug stocks and stocks with weekly option expirations. The NASDAQ moves are being dictated by the biotech stocks. We expect the biotech ETFs to move higher here - these have still not closed below the 13 week SMA.
Our USO position closed on Friday, we are looking to go long BIDU,TWTR. Oil did bounce back and is back at being above $60. Gold rallied and we expect a pullback. The Greece situation has been nothing but noise. Eurozone economies did well due to the pullback in the Euro, but the markets saw a pullback last week. China is in a bubble and will not end until everyone is loaded up - there is a billionaire being made every week - reminds us of the 2000 Nasdaq tech bubble.
We are still long MO,DNKN,BIDU and we will close our BOX position this week.
ISEE C/P ratio hit a new 52 week high on Thursday - it recorded a reading of 228 and that means over 2.2 calls were being bought for every put. This typically points to a higher market. Hedges are cheap now as volatility is low and we recommend buying some SPY puts and or puts for your positions at 10% below for 30d out timeframe.
Checkout our backtest article we posted last week for our site and also check out excellent subscription rates for full access and it is currently discounted at 50% for one year access - here is the link - http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx and we would really appreciate if you can spread the word for our site - and create a buzz - we know we have one of the best stock charting sites on the web. We have updated our home page and are still adding features daily. Check these out and send us your feedback - support@trucharts.com - your feedback is so critical to help us improve our user experience.
Closed EEM short.
Here are some articles for some good reading this week.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-16/what-goldman-telling-its-clients-sell-may-and-dont-come-back-one-year
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-16/one-gauge-investor-sentiment-just-hit-6-year-high
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-17/presenting-77-billion-p2p-bubble
Here are the charts we are watching this week:
Good luck trading.
Trucharts Team
Where are the markets headed - up or down??
We were unable to publish our blog for week ending 5/8 as we were in China due to blogging restrictions. We are going to summarize the market events for the last two weeks and provide our outlook for the coming weeks and thoughts on some trading.
Well we noticed a pattern during the past two weeks - markets would be sluggish during the early part of the week and then ramp into the end of week trading - week of 5/8 we had a huge move on Friday and last week the big move occured on Thursday. Bonds which have been crushed for the past few months (see TBT chart below) bounced back and it is currently oversold and we expect TBT to move up to its 50d SMA. This will lead to a drop in yields in the coming weeks and interest sensitive stocks should move higher - housing stocks like DHI and LEN to move higher. Markets moved higher on Thursday due to the lower retail number print and the jobless claims number. The markets are totally schizoprehnic - every data point is like a tug of war between the bulls and the bears - but we think the bulls are winning.
The indices like S&P500 brokeout to a new high last week and we expect the move higher. Check the charts below for DIA, SPY, SVXY and TNA. With the Fed pumping money into the economy and staying on the sidelines with the low or ZIRP will drive stocks higher. The Fed is stuck in a corner and we have been saying this for weeks. There is internal strife within the Fed governors and there is lot of jawboning going on the interest rate hike front. This is creating a stable trading environment in stocks - we especially like the drug stocks and stocks with weekly option expirations. The NASDAQ moves are being dictated by the biotech stocks. We expect the biotech ETFs to move higher here - these have still not closed below the 13 week SMA.
Our USO position closed on Friday, we are looking to go long BIDU,TWTR. Oil did bounce back and is back at being above $60. Gold rallied and we expect a pullback. The Greece situation has been nothing but noise. Eurozone economies did well due to the pullback in the Euro, but the markets saw a pullback last week. China is in a bubble and will not end until everyone is loaded up - there is a billionaire being made every week - reminds us of the 2000 Nasdaq tech bubble.
We are still long MO,DNKN,BIDU and we will close our BOX position this week.
ISEE C/P ratio hit a new 52 week high on Thursday - it recorded a reading of 228 and that means over 2.2 calls were being bought for every put. This typically points to a higher market. Hedges are cheap now as volatility is low and we recommend buying some SPY puts and or puts for your positions at 10% below for 30d out timeframe.
Checkout our backtest article we posted last week for our site and also check out excellent subscription rates for full access and it is currently discounted at 50% for one year access - here is the link - http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx and we would really appreciate if you can spread the word for our site - and create a buzz - we know we have one of the best stock charting sites on the web. We have updated our home page and are still adding features daily. Check these out and send us your feedback - support@trucharts.com - your feedback is so critical to help us improve our user experience.
Closed EEM short.
Here are some articles for some good reading this week.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-16/what-goldman-telling-its-clients-sell-may-and-dont-come-back-one-year
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-16/one-gauge-investor-sentiment-just-hit-6-year-high
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-17/presenting-77-billion-p2p-bubble
Here are the charts we are watching this week:
Good luck trading.
Trucharts Team
May 9, 2015
Blogging restricted
To all our readers - Sorry we have not been able to update any of our blogs and other social feeds due to restrictions in China (due to our travel here). We will provide an update on the markets for the past week and stocks to watch for the coming week. Thank God Hong Kong is still freer than China - we will see how long that lasts.
Trucharts Founder/CEO
Trucharts Founder/CEO
April 26, 2015
We made over 18% in three weeks? What did you trade?
Trucharts.com Blog week ending 4/24/2015
Free Stock Chart(s), Technical Screener, MACD Charts, Scanner, Real Time Stock News, Stock Patterns, Stock Quotes, Portfolio Management, Earnings Calendar and more:
Well the stock markets have been going through a nice up trend with this earnings season in full force. Stocks in many sectors were rocking and not so in some sectors. The technology semiconductor sector looks like it has topped out in earnings - check how AVGO, NXPI, TXN (reported earnings and tanked) and many others are pointing to a slowdown in this sector. We were short SMH and recommending shorting NXPI and AVGO in our last blog. We would stay short SMH.
In addition, next week we have the moment of the quarter earnings from AAPL on Monday and then TWTR on the 29th (and BIDU also). FB (Facebook) earnings did not look strong and we still do not like FB due to its valuation. Google stock moved, primarily due to short covering. AMZN was a blowout - unfortunately we think here it is expensive here - even though it may move higher. The earnings will keep going this week and you can check the earnings calendar for your stock on our stockview page in the data box and on our earnings calendar page at: Earnings Calendar.
Here is a stock we talked about shorting and looks like a great candidate for short - please always hedge your position by buying an out of the money call. We always hedge our positions. Stock is IPGP and here is the chart:
Stock is closed below 13d and 50d SMA - target would be 85 and below.
Gold got killed last week but we think this is going to be range bound from $1100 to $1200 and we will keep a close eye on this. Some commodity stocks did well this past week - check out RS, VALE.
Markets are still trending higher - we think there is a chance for a breakout here and we have to see if there is follow through. Chinese markets are on a roll - bubble brewing but not over yet.
Now how did we make 18% - we traded TWTR stock - TWTR has been range bound between 49 and 53 and we bought the stock for 3 weeks in a row and wrote the covered calls for each of those weeks, since TWTR has weekly options. We traded 400 share blocks and our investment was $10000 and our net profit was $1800. Total return - 18%. We are still long TWTR and plan to stay long into earnings - we think TWTR is beating FB (facebook) and is growing now. We will write covered calls for next week May 1st - Friday for part of our position. Anyway - I wil be traveling this week and will still try to publish and update the blog next weekend. Check out our site for excellent real time stock news and excellent features like mouseover charts/automated buy and sell signals for any stock which you will find on no other sites. We charge the lowest subscription fee for full access to our site. We need your support and we have been providing actual trades and the best picks for the last 6 months - all for free.
Free Stock Chart(s), Technical Screener, MACD Charts, Scanner, Real Time Stock News, Stock Patterns, Stock Quotes, Portfolio Management, Earnings Calendar and more:
Well the stock markets have been going through a nice up trend with this earnings season in full force. Stocks in many sectors were rocking and not so in some sectors. The technology semiconductor sector looks like it has topped out in earnings - check how AVGO, NXPI, TXN (reported earnings and tanked) and many others are pointing to a slowdown in this sector. We were short SMH and recommending shorting NXPI and AVGO in our last blog. We would stay short SMH.
In addition, next week we have the moment of the quarter earnings from AAPL on Monday and then TWTR on the 29th (and BIDU also). FB (Facebook) earnings did not look strong and we still do not like FB due to its valuation. Google stock moved, primarily due to short covering. AMZN was a blowout - unfortunately we think here it is expensive here - even though it may move higher. The earnings will keep going this week and you can check the earnings calendar for your stock on our stockview page in the data box and on our earnings calendar page at: Earnings Calendar.
Here is a stock we talked about shorting and looks like a great candidate for short - please always hedge your position by buying an out of the money call. We always hedge our positions. Stock is IPGP and here is the chart:
Stock is closed below 13d and 50d SMA - target would be 85 and below.
Gold got killed last week but we think this is going to be range bound from $1100 to $1200 and we will keep a close eye on this. Some commodity stocks did well this past week - check out RS, VALE.
Markets are still trending higher - we think there is a chance for a breakout here and we have to see if there is follow through. Chinese markets are on a roll - bubble brewing but not over yet.
Now how did we make 18% - we traded TWTR stock - TWTR has been range bound between 49 and 53 and we bought the stock for 3 weeks in a row and wrote the covered calls for each of those weeks, since TWTR has weekly options. We traded 400 share blocks and our investment was $10000 and our net profit was $1800. Total return - 18%. We are still long TWTR and plan to stay long into earnings - we think TWTR is beating FB (facebook) and is growing now. We will write covered calls for next week May 1st - Friday for part of our position. Anyway - I wil be traveling this week and will still try to publish and update the blog next weekend. Check out our site for excellent real time stock news and excellent features like mouseover charts/automated buy and sell signals for any stock which you will find on no other sites. We charge the lowest subscription fee for full access to our site. We need your support and we have been providing actual trades and the best picks for the last 6 months - all for free.
February 15, 2015
Trucharts.com Blog - week ending 2/13/2015 and Stocks to Watch
Trucharts.com Blog week ending 2/13/2015
Happy Valentine’s day to all and after a short travel hiatus, we are back to writing our blog. Due to blogging restrictions in China, we were unable to post to our G+, FB and blogger/WP. It feels weird when you cannot blog about just something simple as stocks. Anyway, it has been an exciting week after what we call a consolidation period in the markets. The S&P,NASDAQ and the DOW all hit an all time high – we were expecting the breakout based on the wedge pattern/descending triangle pattern that started in Nov. We expect this to move to last based on the recent earnings and the oil sector bouncing back. Gold pulled back and we expect gold to move down – we think the move up was due to the Chinese New Year. The Greek crisis is just noise and we do not expect this to impact the markets. Oil is in a bottoming phase and we will watch this closely – our picks LINE, USO and OIL jumped very nicely (over 30% for LINE and OIL etf), our GM short and F short will be rolled over to next month. We expect this to be a peak year for auto sales. Our pick CYBR did very well as did TWTR – both of these are up over 40% CYBR and 20% TWTR since our calls and check out the buy signal for CYBR on our buy/sell strategy chart below:
Check the Chaikin money flow Index on the bottom of the chart – it went negative when the stock gapped up on Friday. Based on our technical analysis, we would expect the stock to pull back/consolidate and make a move higher. The earnings were announced on Thursday after the close and the company crushed the earnings and guided higher.
CYBR _ WITH BUY/SELL SIGNALS
We went long ALTR based on the technicals. Here is the chart for ALTR. We will exit the position this week around 36.25 or better.
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http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=VFC (which went buy signal right before the gap up)
Markets are closed for President’s day – Monday. Good luck trading and check out our multiple charts feature and also our real time categorized news feature.
We closed our position in K (Kellogg) right before it gapped down on Friday – looks like people are not eating enough cereal!!
Our call on DAL short was right on the money - we closed that position this week.
Trucharts Founder
February 9, 2015
Delayed Blog posting due to travel and restrictions
To all:
Due to my personal travels for the past two weeks and travel to China - my blog has not been updated due to bloggin restrictions in China - we will be posting a big update later today - just a brief update on our calls on oil and the ETFs for oil (USO and OIL) these have moved up sharply from our recommendations and as has TWTR which really worked very well for us. We have been long USO and LINE which have moved up over 10% and 30% in the past week and TWTR has moved over 20%. We will discuss these and many other things during our blog update later today. Good luck trading and watch BOX stock.
Trucharts Founder/CEO
Due to my personal travels for the past two weeks and travel to China - my blog has not been updated due to bloggin restrictions in China - we will be posting a big update later today - just a brief update on our calls on oil and the ETFs for oil (USO and OIL) these have moved up sharply from our recommendations and as has TWTR which really worked very well for us. We have been long USO and LINE which have moved up over 10% and 30% in the past week and TWTR has moved over 20%. We will discuss these and many other things during our blog update later today. Good luck trading and watch BOX stock.
Trucharts Founder/CEO
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