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Showing posts with label Stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stocks. Show all posts

December 23, 2018

The Fed, the markets and tech stocks - FAANG - NVDA and others

The Fed, the markets and tech stocks - FAANG - NVDA, FB and others


Well the Fed showed that it has balls and is not dictated by markets or politics - and this is what would be expected if they are truly independent and focused on maintaining their mandate of full employment and low inflation - the previous two Fed generals or chairman/chairwoman did a terrible injustice by not raising early enough and leading to a massive ALL asset bubble - not just in good old USA, but all over the world. We were not aware but Chairman Powell has been an investment banker and a hedge fund manager. We hope he saw that the bubble was brewing in the markets and that valuations were truly over extended to a level that matched the 2000 bubble. Along with this we have a massive debt issuance from corporates that are rated at grade "BBB" - when companies issued bonds at cheap rates and this number has ballooned to $4T (yes TRILLION) from 1.5T in 2008. Watch the FAANG stocks - these are broken..

We have provided here a link for a very good article from Mauldin economics (one of the better ones written) - 

We are down a mere 6% and everyone is panicking - imagine that - a mere 6% and apparently a growing economy (bustling as they say) - where it cannot handle a Fed funds rate of a mere 2.5% - what is wrong with a 2.5% fed funds rate - that is just 50bp over the 2% mandated inflation rate. Really - how is that our wonderful economy cannot tolerate such a normal Fed funds rate.. All the idiots on CNBC and Bloomberg - are nothing but a bunch speculators who have never experienced a bubble.   As we mentioned in our previous blog post - not a single soul has mentioned the word bubble - or how truly overvalued the markets are still - even after this pullback. We also stated that bear market rallies are fierce and vicious - so watch for many more of these in 2019 - but the trend is still down and there will be a reversion to the mean - it is called the law of nature and physics. Drumpf panicking as is Mnuchin - such morons.. Do check our comments on our last blog on how tops are marked with 3 different events.

We would like you to refer to our previous posts on stocks and why these were overvalued - stocks like NVDA, ALGN, ADBE and NOW. Check the charts we had posted and we are still recommending to sell these if you are making money. NVDA and ALGN are both down over 50% - and do you recall the analyst who upgraded the stock at 290 along with the analyst who upgraded ALGN. Well these guys still have their jobs and the stocks are down over 60%. We picked ADBE as our next big short - as it has a market cap of over 100B - for a company that does only 10B in revenue - what is that - a P/S of 10x.. Again overvalued and over hyped stock. We keep track of our key indicators and our indicators are saying there is more downside and there will be rallies on perceived good news and from oversold conditions - but these will be rallies to sell into. Here is our updated short portfolio;


We are still recommending shorting HD and LOW - the retailers will have a tough time in 2019 and this is being reflected in their stock prices - shorting Macys (M) would be a good idea here.

Again we will are in process of revamping our site - expect to launch in January - new features along with direct trading from our platform. Can't wait..

We want to wish everyone a merry Christmas and Happy New Year and wishing everyone good luck in their trading and some sound advice - to stop listening to the bozos on TV - Cramer, CNBC and Bloomberg. Too much analysis and non stop gibberish. Do your own work and analysis - it does not take that long to make sensible decisions.

Trucharts.com Founder

December 8, 2018

Our top short picks and markets

Our top short picks and markets


What a roller coaster - down 700 point and then up 700 points, we have had one of the most volatile periods since any recent memory in the markets. But we said in our last article that bear market rallies are fierce and vicious - these happen to shake out the weak, but the trend does not change - it happens to suck in those who think markets are bouncing back and going higher - this picture has been played before many a time. Basically what happens after a long period in these type of bull markets, where every dip is bought and things go back up again. The mindset of the investors and many becomes complacent and it is like becoming habituated or trained and maybe even numb to any volatility. On top of that if you add all the sound on TV, news and articles - you seem to be lulled into the fact that it is all OK and you can just keep buying - it will always go higher. We mentioned in our last post - it is like being at a party and everybody is high and drunk - no one knows what the hangover will be like. We recommend you read this article and it echoes our sentiment on housing and credit bubble:


We are witnessing people reducing prices in one of the most hyped up housing places in America - California - specially Bay Area where folks were tripping over each other to buy houses - overbidding with cash offers was a common staple.. Now we are seeing price reductions ranging from a very low percent all the way up to 40% reductions - UNHEARD OF IN Bay area - we are staying with our prediction of the coming 30% price correction in California and Bay Area.

We wanted to also show how tops in some stocks are made - this always happens when companies build monuments to their success - good examples of this in our present era are - guess - NVDA, AAPL, FB and CRM - this tells us the story in these stock is also over.. So sell these while you are making money.

If you recall we have been steadfast on our call on NVDA stock being one of the most over-hyped and over priced semiconductor stock in the history of the markets (as much as we missed the bull run in the stock) - we stayed with our call on shorting it all the way up. As we stated sometimes it requires a lot of patience - the stock was trading at the highest P/S multiple ever. Well the markets finally spoke and the stock has crashed over 50%. We think it is going to $80.. Another over-hyped stock in our short list was ALGN - what a joke - stock went from 80 to 400+ - we said short it - and as of Friday the stock has crash 50% - think about that 50% - it is now at 200. The stock was trading at a P/S multiple of 17-18 - so for every $1 in revenue - people were willing to $17 - what a fucking joke. We were long puts and made some good money.

Well we want to bring to you our next top short picks - if you make some money - at least give us some credit and subscribe to our site - here they are - LULU, HD, ADBE and NOW. ADBE is trading at a P/S of almost 14 - Market cap 114B and 8B in revenue (ridiculous); NOW trading at 17 P/S ratio - 2 B in revenue and market cap of 33.5B; HD is a call on the housing slow down - just short it - over priced - we expect their earnings are headed lower.. LULU another retail dump stock and over hyped. We have other plays but these are on the top of our list. We are still short and hold shorts on these stocks in our account except HD for now - we will swap TXN short for HD short.

We like gold as it has been holding up and cash as a holding - gold has been moving up and this is telling us that there is some event that may occur which will impact the markets - maybe Deutsche Bank (DB) - it is not clear. In addition this has been a market for traders and not investors and it will stay the same for the foreseeable future - there is money to be made for the last few weeks via via intraday trading. So stay on your toes and again - this is not an invest-able market - majority of our accounts are in cash and we published our short and short/long portfolio on our twitter handle - @trucharts.

We do not do FB - but do post on twitter our trades. One additional prediction - FB will not be a company in ten years.

We have an incredible deal coming in Jan on our site www.trucharts.com  - stay tuned..

Good luck trading.


Founder and Trucharts team





October 19, 2017

Bubbles everywhere and new highs and extreme complacency


Bubbles, Bubbles and more of it...


This is what bubbles of made of - low levels of volatility and no respect for risk. We are now in a massive bubble and it is now looking like it may also beat the 2000 bubble. All around me I see people discussing stocks and trying to make that quick buck and let me tell you in this type of environment it is very easy to do that. Extreme liquidity from all central banks and the Yellen, Draghi put is making this market look even more risky day by day. But right now everyone is high and happy - as every investor thinks that stocks will never ever go down and there is no risk. Stocks like IBM, UNH and big cap names moving over 10% in a day is not a normal market. Stock rebounding on bad news is not a normal market. All news is good news, even if it is manipulated from an earnings perspective. All valuation metrics are above and beyond the previous bubbles and we have literally created money out of thin air. Central bank balance sheets are loaded with debt instruments, company valuations from a Price/Sales and PE ratios are at highs that eclipse the previous bubbles. There is total disregard for risk and yet no one cares - everyone acts like this is normal price action. Take for example IBM - they beat earnings because of their tax rate - and their tax rate - a phenomenal 11% - yes you read that right - a company as big as IBM pays a 11% effective tax rate and us normal folks pay at 30%. Their revenue was marginally higher and yet the stock was up over 10% in a day - think about it IBM up over 10% in a day. ADBE reported numbers that were slightly higher than the analyst estimates for 2018 and the stock jumped over $15 in after hours - yes that is right over 10% move in a single day. Yet we have the TV talking heads all acting like this is normal and there is no bubble. We do, my friends, and I have lived through two of these and this is the 3rd one - but this is not only a stock bubble it is like a loaded gun - completely leveraged - with housing, stocks, debt, and bonds all at all time highs and we are supposed to act like this is normal. 

Our good old friend Masayoshi from Japan is back and making the rounds - he lost over 70B in the last bubble - yet people gave him money again and he is running around like a boy in a toy store making stupid investments in companies that will never survive and at valuations that are mind blowing. He has a 100B fund. Think about that 100B to invest anyway he wants with no restrictions. Exactly like 1999-2000.

Everyone is feeling rich and the rich just got a lot more richer. More billionaires everyday - why? - all because the Fed is a puppet to the banks and the markets. Foot on the pedal on money printing. They dare not touch the dial or the button - who knows what will happen if they cease or pull back on their asset purchase programs or take away the punch bowl. They are petrified and have no handle on the situation - they use outdated metrics to measure inflation so that can keep printing more money and to keep juicing the pump.. We are all at a big party and no one thinks it is going to end - end it will - when maybe next year - I think. But until then just keep drinking...and get drunk.

Margin debt is at all time highs and yet no one is worried - the last time that happened was at the market tops of 2000 and 2007.

Some articles to read:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-18/long-list-market-anomalies-what-look-if-indeed-major-bubble

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-18/something-wicked-way-comes-mcdonalds-–-bear-bull-costume

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-18/when-not-if

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-17/bubble-nomics

It is a bubble when you no longer have to flip homes to make money - you just have to take a snap (photo) and send it to an investor and just make money (check SnapFlip). Boy times have changed but the story has not. It is the same - wash, rinse and repeat (just with different names). Every show on TV now is related to housing flips and everyone is in it. Amazing how things look the same once you have experienced it before - what is that called - oh - 'deja-vu'. The more they say it is different this time, the more convinced I am that we are in this huge bubble and something is about to break. When who knows, but it will happen. Just read the articles in the links above. 

Margin debt at new highs, consumer credit card debt at new highs, auto loans at new highs, student loans debt at new highs - we are all running on borrowed time - we are a mind boggling debt creation machine and what is that called - enslavement. The rich have gotten richer and they are creating debt to enslave others. Companies are mired in debt and China - don't even talk about the Chinese regime - they are lying about everything - just to keep up the charade - debt is ballooning in China and is at over 250% of GDP and everyone says - that's OK - they will manage - of course, I could manage a trillion dollars as long as I have dollar printing machine in my back yard. 

It is amazing to see what is happening and everyone is smiling and acting like - there is no problem - it is all glorious.. Sure it is.. IPOs left and right, mind numbing valuations for startups with no revenue and so many stupid companies being funded - it just rings bells of 1999-2000. I think there must be a 17 year cycle or something..Anyway keep your eyes wide open, and learn to take money off the table and take profits.

We have a very unique feature on our platform - we call it PortfolioSense - as a subscriber you can enter any number of portfolios and we will send you an email at the end of the day to show how your stocks are doing in terms of the technical signals related to the holding in your portfolio. You can then check out the chart to see if you need to make a buy or sell decision. Check it out - I use it all the time and here is the link - http://www.trucharts.com/TransactionDetails.aspx

Don't even get me started on the Drumpf..


June 7, 2017

S&P and all indices at records - Wow Trump did have a huge impact on markets. Where do we go from here?


Welcome to the era of Trump and record high markets:

First of all, I wanted to apologize from being away so long from writing my blogs. Due to personal medical reasons, I was unable to keep my blog updated.

Well, we are definitely in the record books for sure. All indices at all time highs, financials were up, airlines up - everything is and has been going up. Financials did pull back from their highs after the Trump agenda does not seem to be materializing. But tech stocks - unbelievable run - all semi stocks, NVDA, AMD and many others are trading like it is 1999. Many amateurs are jumping into the market and let me tell you, I lived through 1999-2000, cashed out at the top - and this is looking like deja vu all over again - maybe to slightly smaller extent. Stocks are trading at sky high valuations and nobody cares, the media just keeps priming the pump and the bubble - along with the Fed.

It has been a nice run and we are still not seeing any real technical weakness - except in the financial stocks. AMZN, GOOG, FB, NFLX (or FANG stocks) along with TSLA are trading at valuations that are the GDPs of many nations combined together. I think it is getting crazy - but make hay while the sun shines. There is no regard for risk or risk aversion and therefore one as an investor or trader needs to make sure they have their stops in place. This is a good time to have one foot out the door. 

There is no question that this is a liquidity driven bubble, the Fed and all central banks are driving this bubble with no regard for the debt and market valuations. You can tell you are in a bubble when the markets and certain stocks bounce back to new highs even on bad news - mind you there has really been no real growth in revenue - there has been financial shenanigans and financial engineering to create wonderful rosy outcomes. Huge stock buybacks, and setting expectations low with the analysts community - and then during earnings season beating the estimates - sounds like a nice scam to me. But the SEC is powerless entity and they just play along. 

Anyway, we think there is still room at the top. With all this talk (no action) about tax reform, health care reform, infrastructure - well Mr. Trump does not seem to get that this is not like erecting a skyscraper - or just making a golf resort - this is the government and the government does not run like a business - and you cannot run it like a reality show - he just loves showmanship. Anyway, back to the markets.

So we like the following stocks - AAPL, WDC, PANW, INTC, QCOM - there are many others, but we are being opportunistic in our trades and watch for new highs and breakouts. We also look at the technical end of day reports from our site at www.trucharts.com/marketreports.aspx - look for RSI less than 30, improving RSI, TC Positional Buy signals and MACD crossover reports. 

The unemployment picture is not looking good - debt at consumer level is at record highs and this is already impacting the retail sector - obvious from the store closing and stock prices. Leadership is narrow and housing is looking like a major bubble - rides along with stock prices. 

We are in a bull market and heading higher into the IPHONE 8 season and going long AAPL is a good trade. Keep good stops and wait for our next update soon.


Good luck trading.

Trucharts.com
Founder







July 9, 2015

Greece, Markets and Dow Jones below 200d SMA - Mid week update - Blog Trucharts.com Stock Blog

Mid Week Update - Trucharts.com Stock Blog - Will Grexit be a reality and stocks to trade and China stock markets

SEO stuff: 

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What a week - sorry, we could not post over the weekend and then we had huge market movements in China, US and then the Greek referendum. 

China markets were down over 30% and the Chinese government made or passed laws to arrest folks who were aggressively short selling, then increased margin leverage, forced brokers to plead a measly 120B Yuan to buy stocks, banned companies from selling their own stock and I am not sure when this list will end. Well in response to all these wonderful government interventions, the markets rebounded yesterday to the tune of 200 points and everyone was getting excited. We are non-believers of this rally and think it will still take its own course eventually - we believe the China growth engine is slowing due to their shadow banking and debt problems of the state owned entities. We expect the Chinese GDP growth to drop to below the 7% number and the Chinese are very concerned. We stated that the world is mired in overcapacity and China is at the root of this overcapacity. We expect a slight bounce in the markets here, but the downtrend should resume - timing not clear. When you are minting a billionaire everyday, you will eventually have more billionaires than anywhere in the world... Bubbles, bubbles and more bubbles and the Chinese government does not know how to handle bubbles - amateurs. And they have been printing money non stop - this will come to haunt them someday.

Now Greece - well the referendum passed with an overwhelming NO to the Eurozone and it is not clear what the Grexit will look like - we believe the Eurozone members Germany and France are extremely concerned about the future of the Euro zone if they allow Greect to exit - this is called dismembering - if one falls will others follow - Italy, Spain, Portugal and who else!! That is the reason the Eurozone leaders are scrambling to prevent Greece from exiting - we still expect that this is inevitable.. 

US markets - We stated in our previous blogs that the markets were exhibiting topping action and sure enough we had the markets trying to hold levels of 18000 for the DOW, 2100 for the SP500 and the 5000 level for NASDAQ. This topping action was ongoing for 4-6 weeks with 3 digit moves every other day. Eventually the markets broke down and now the earnings season is in full bloom. Markets broke 200D SMA for DOW and we are closely watching the 17700 level now as resistance and 2070 for the SP500. VIX is elevated and we have to be on our toes. 

We had earnings report from Micron, which were lower than forecast and their outlook was grim. AMD re-enforced the slowdown in the PC markets and we expect the same from the overall semi sector. We stated to go short INTC or SMH and overvalued stocks such as AMBA, SWKS, NXPI and AVGO. We believe INTC buying ALTR was a desperate move from INTC and they paid a hefty premium for this. And as did AVGO buying BRCM for a hefty premium. There is no questions there is a major slowdown in this sector and we do not expect any major driver for this sector. Overcapacity is a definite issue and the phone markets are getting severely saturated in China and India.

Some good reads from this and the past week:


We are long BIDU,CYBR with covered calls written and short INTC,SWKS,AMBA. We went long WBA today for a short term trade. 

We recommend that you hedge your positions by buying some put protection and selling some covered calls. 

Check out some new features on our site and help us spread the word - we rely on word of mouth advertising - we focus our funds on driving development of our site. 

Here are some charts for DIA, SPY, and QQQ - weekly: 

 



Keep an eye on 50 week SMA for all the above symbols - these are critical support. In addition, watch IBB to see if it closes this week below 13 week SMA - if it does - it is ripe for a short.


Best of luck trading.
Trucharts team.

March 31, 2015

Are you buying or selling? We are selling..

Trucharts.com - Free Stock charts - MACD charts & Technical Analysis

Markets pulled back today giving up most of the wonderful gains yesterday - a bull trap. We stated to take profits in the rally and hedge your positions. We are heading into earnings season and be ready for some nasty surprises from the tech sector for Q2 earnings, and energy sector earnings. Gold has been dropping and oil has been pushed down to a potential nuclear agreement with Iran and what this will do the current glut situation. Biotech stocks were getting clobbered today and we think this is profit taking in this sector by the mutual funds for end of quarter performance numbers. The biotech sector has been moving up in an exponential fashion and we are still short IBB. Be prepared - we are already in the sixth year of this bull market and expect a pullback and maybe a meaningful is coming. Check out our automated trading strategies on our site to see if your stock is on a buy/sell signal. We are long TWTR. and short SMH.

In addition, we are recommending selling AAPL. 

UPDATED:

Read this: Our theory of a top forming.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-31/april-anxiety-75-year-itch

Trucharts Team