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Showing posts with label amgn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label amgn. Show all posts

February 14, 2021

New highs expected and absolute bubble mania - Check out the trades and ...


This video shows the stocks we picked last week and how these did. Along with that we have the picks for next week and where we expect markets to go. Highly recommend you check out the video - it is enlightening.. Here are he details in the video agenda:

Feb 13, 2021 – HAPPY CHINESE NEW YEAR AND HAPPY VALENTINES DAY

In this video:

Markets update for the past week– NASDAQ,DJIA,QQQ,SPY – Risk is high..!! 
NEW HIGHS – DOW target 32000; NASDAQ 15000 – Bubble mania

Trades we did – TWTR, CHWY, PINS, MRVL, AMAT
Trades from previous week – GNRC, CHWY, CPRT, NKE, KO, ZM, MTCH
Trades for next week – CSX, WYNN, LVS, UNP, AZN, CHWY, MRVL
Screener – Bollinger Band screener 
Trading technically – Check ROKU, ILMN and SQ 
Subscribe to our youtube channel and trucharts.com site – Tradier brokerage
Contact us – truchartscom@gmail.com
Follow us on twitter - @trucharts 
Please consult with your financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Not providing financial advice – just our analysis

February 6, 2021

Relentless markets - expecting higher highs - check out the picks for ne...


Markets are relentless and moving higher - we are staying bullish through February and keeping an eye out for technical breakdowns.. But we are not there yet. Still recommending certain stocks - also we show how to use custom periods for formulas on our site using the dynamic screener.. Try it out. Stock picks for next week are also discussed - here are the picks for next weeK;




Subscribe to TRUCHARTS.COM for real time quotes, charts and unlimited indicators.. Subscribe and also follow us on twitter @trucharts.



Risk is high - Market watch & updates - TSLA,AAPL,MSFT,VZ,SPOT,AMC and o...

Markets update for the past week– NASDAQ,DJIA,QQQ,SPY – Risk is high..!!
Time to take profits and be cautious
Stocks from last week
Trades we did – GS, AMC, SPOT, TWTR
Screener –VZ pick from last week
Picks for next week
Semi stocks and shorts (for professional and experienced traders only) – IWM and FB short
Subscribe to our youtube channel and trucharts.com site – Tradier brokerage
Contact us – truchartscom@gmail.com
Follow us on twitter - @trucharts 
Please consult with your financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Not providing financial advice – just our analysis


January 17, 2021

Markets and time to be cautious, take profits? Trades for next week - VZ...

What we discuss in this week's video update:

  • Markets update for the past week– NASDAQ,DJIA,QQQ,SPY
  • Time to take profits and be cautious
  • Stocks from last week
  • Trades we did – BIIB, AMGN, KLAC, AMAT, MSFT (short), CVS
  • Example TSCO – cross of 13d
  • Screener – RSI scanning and Gap ups – VZ pick for next week
  • Basic indicators to always watch – SMA (13,20,30,50,100,200), MACD, RSI, Volume
  • Picks for next week
  • Semi stocks and shorts (for professional and experienced traders only) – VZ, ETR long – NET or ZEN, QRVO as short
  • Subscribe to our youtube channel and trucharts.com site – Tradier brokerage
  • Contact us – truchartscom@gmail.com
  • Follow us on twitter - @trucharts 
  • MAKE $$$$$$$$$......

October 19, 2017

Bubbles everywhere and new highs and extreme complacency


Bubbles, Bubbles and more of it...


This is what bubbles of made of - low levels of volatility and no respect for risk. We are now in a massive bubble and it is now looking like it may also beat the 2000 bubble. All around me I see people discussing stocks and trying to make that quick buck and let me tell you in this type of environment it is very easy to do that. Extreme liquidity from all central banks and the Yellen, Draghi put is making this market look even more risky day by day. But right now everyone is high and happy - as every investor thinks that stocks will never ever go down and there is no risk. Stocks like IBM, UNH and big cap names moving over 10% in a day is not a normal market. Stock rebounding on bad news is not a normal market. All news is good news, even if it is manipulated from an earnings perspective. All valuation metrics are above and beyond the previous bubbles and we have literally created money out of thin air. Central bank balance sheets are loaded with debt instruments, company valuations from a Price/Sales and PE ratios are at highs that eclipse the previous bubbles. There is total disregard for risk and yet no one cares - everyone acts like this is normal price action. Take for example IBM - they beat earnings because of their tax rate - and their tax rate - a phenomenal 11% - yes you read that right - a company as big as IBM pays a 11% effective tax rate and us normal folks pay at 30%. Their revenue was marginally higher and yet the stock was up over 10% in a day - think about it IBM up over 10% in a day. ADBE reported numbers that were slightly higher than the analyst estimates for 2018 and the stock jumped over $15 in after hours - yes that is right over 10% move in a single day. Yet we have the TV talking heads all acting like this is normal and there is no bubble. We do, my friends, and I have lived through two of these and this is the 3rd one - but this is not only a stock bubble it is like a loaded gun - completely leveraged - with housing, stocks, debt, and bonds all at all time highs and we are supposed to act like this is normal. 

Our good old friend Masayoshi from Japan is back and making the rounds - he lost over 70B in the last bubble - yet people gave him money again and he is running around like a boy in a toy store making stupid investments in companies that will never survive and at valuations that are mind blowing. He has a 100B fund. Think about that 100B to invest anyway he wants with no restrictions. Exactly like 1999-2000.

Everyone is feeling rich and the rich just got a lot more richer. More billionaires everyday - why? - all because the Fed is a puppet to the banks and the markets. Foot on the pedal on money printing. They dare not touch the dial or the button - who knows what will happen if they cease or pull back on their asset purchase programs or take away the punch bowl. They are petrified and have no handle on the situation - they use outdated metrics to measure inflation so that can keep printing more money and to keep juicing the pump.. We are all at a big party and no one thinks it is going to end - end it will - when maybe next year - I think. But until then just keep drinking...and get drunk.

Margin debt is at all time highs and yet no one is worried - the last time that happened was at the market tops of 2000 and 2007.

Some articles to read:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-18/long-list-market-anomalies-what-look-if-indeed-major-bubble

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-18/something-wicked-way-comes-mcdonalds-–-bear-bull-costume

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-18/when-not-if

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-17/bubble-nomics

It is a bubble when you no longer have to flip homes to make money - you just have to take a snap (photo) and send it to an investor and just make money (check SnapFlip). Boy times have changed but the story has not. It is the same - wash, rinse and repeat (just with different names). Every show on TV now is related to housing flips and everyone is in it. Amazing how things look the same once you have experienced it before - what is that called - oh - 'deja-vu'. The more they say it is different this time, the more convinced I am that we are in this huge bubble and something is about to break. When who knows, but it will happen. Just read the articles in the links above. 

Margin debt at new highs, consumer credit card debt at new highs, auto loans at new highs, student loans debt at new highs - we are all running on borrowed time - we are a mind boggling debt creation machine and what is that called - enslavement. The rich have gotten richer and they are creating debt to enslave others. Companies are mired in debt and China - don't even talk about the Chinese regime - they are lying about everything - just to keep up the charade - debt is ballooning in China and is at over 250% of GDP and everyone says - that's OK - they will manage - of course, I could manage a trillion dollars as long as I have dollar printing machine in my back yard. 

It is amazing to see what is happening and everyone is smiling and acting like - there is no problem - it is all glorious.. Sure it is.. IPOs left and right, mind numbing valuations for startups with no revenue and so many stupid companies being funded - it just rings bells of 1999-2000. I think there must be a 17 year cycle or something..Anyway keep your eyes wide open, and learn to take money off the table and take profits.

We have a very unique feature on our platform - we call it PortfolioSense - as a subscriber you can enter any number of portfolios and we will send you an email at the end of the day to show how your stocks are doing in terms of the technical signals related to the holding in your portfolio. You can then check out the chart to see if you need to make a buy or sell decision. Check it out - I use it all the time and here is the link - http://www.trucharts.com/TransactionDetails.aspx

Don't even get me started on the Drumpf..


July 13, 2017

Fed testimony, Markets, Tech Stocks and Backtest feature on our site


Fed testimony, Markets, Tech Stocks and Backtest feature on our site


LATEST UPDATE: Yellen dovishness sparked huge market move and tech stocks came off oversold conditions. Revenue growth is not there - but we are in bubble mode. We like the following pair trade - Long NFLX calls, Short NVDA. VIX is at all time low and volume in markets is also low - therefore the grind higher. Keep tight trailing stops. SP500 is going to 2500 and DOW to 22000. No stopping this bubble - we like also KLAC and AMAT. BA was our top pick and we still like it.

Brief update on the markets and Yellen testimony. 

Well looks like the squirrel went back into its hole - Yellen and the central bankers are now clueless as to what to do - one moment they are hawkish and then the next two weeks they become dovish. They are so scared now to raise rates, that they have just completely given up. They talked about reigning in the monetary stimulus via draining liquidity from the system by selling their assets on their huge balance sheet of over $4T - loaded with mortgage backed securities. They want to start this in September and increase that as they go along. In addition, Grandma Yellen also indicated that she may not be raising rates (of course that would increase our debt burden) T aggressively - the markets rocked up in a straight line, dollar crashed but gold was up slightly. Basically the Fed is saying we do not care about the bubbles, asset valuations and whatever else the loose monetary policy has unleashed in asset bubbles around the world. Case in example - do you know that the Indian stock market is up over 1000% - yes 1000% - in 14 years - no one is mentioning that the Indian banks are drowning in NPLs - but yet the market is up over 1000%. PEs and company valuations in the US are at levels not seen since the 2000 and 2007 heights and moving higher. But the central banks do not care as this is making the rich richer and the goal is to make the average guy feel richer. Nasdaq is out performing and we are heading into earnings season for Q2 - we will have to wait and see how the companies manipulate their results using financial engineering and stock buybacks etc. Oil has been crashing - we had predicted that and we will have to wait and see how that plays out. Tech stocks are rocking and rolling like there is no bound to valuations and PEs - sounds like the 1999-2000 bubble times (i remember those days very distinctly). FAANG stocks are rocking and we like NFLX and AMZN. FB is breaking out and we need to watch carefully where it goes. We like BABA, QCOM, BA, CAT, LLY, AAPL and are short NVDA. Airline stocks like UAL are about to breakout and rail stocks along with defense stocks look good. Even though there may be issues with the valuations etc., these do not matter as we are in full bubble mode - in Bay area people are over bidding on houses by over 350K with multiple offers - exactly like 1999. We expect this to continue. In addition, we are not seeing any real technical weakness in the markets other retail and oil stocks. We also like EEM as merging markets are doing well.

Always put a stop limit loss of 5% to 10% below 50d SMA to limit your loss or gains in case there is a crash. Check these values on weekly charts also - like 13 week and 20 week SMA.

Also spend your time to learn how to trade options - it helps to reduce and improve your portfolio risk and return.


There is a very unique feature on our site - call backtest and we use it for checking certain technical analysis parameters for many stocks to see which yield the best winning results. Here is an example for stock Facebook or FB and you can see one of our trading strategies generated a buy signal on 7/7 and the results showed that this was a very strong signal for FB and it yielded 7 winners and 1 losing trade. So there was a very high probability that the signal would yield to higher prices and sure enough the stock moved over $8 in 3 days to 159. See the snippet of the testing below:

It is tested over 600 trading bars and the results are amazing. We will be restricting use of this to paid subscribers only very soon and you have a chance to test it out. You can also check out our videos on youtube - links are on our site - www.trucharts.com.

Good luck trading.

June 27, 2017

Mr. Market, Yellen, Gold, Tech stocks and bubbles

Markets, Yellen, Fed, gold, Tech stocks and bubbles

Well another week and Monday markets were up and all the bulls were running around predicting that the markets were headed higher. Sure enough we had a down week last week and Grandma Yellen's move to tighten is still being partially ignored by the markets. TLT or bonds were moving higher with yields moving down. We like TLT and have been long since 120. Check the chart here:


There was a heavy rotation into the biotech stocks this past week. The move in the biotech ETFs such as XBI, IBB and BIB were excellent and look like weekly breakouts. We expect these to move higher based on their weekly chart patterns. Check these charts below and we would expect a pullback before we would take any long positions.

Weekly charts:



We believe the rotation is coming out of tech stocks and moving into alternate investments that have been lagging. There is no question that we are in a bubble mode for all assets - the question is, when will this bubble burst. Over 90% of the tech stocks are trading at ridiculous PEs and valuations (that are above the 2000 stock bubble). 

Even with Fed tightening, central banks around the world are still in easing and loose monetary policy mode. 

Gold has been bouncing around this level between 1200 - 1330 for quite some time. Technicals are negative and we have to see a decisive break above the weekly moving averages of 13, 50 and 100 to turn bullish. We do not see that happening unless there is a monetary crisis a.k.a China Yuan or some other country currency crashing.

In the tech stocks we like, QCOM and WDC. These stocks relative to their peers are cheap and have good dividends and low PEs. We also like Alibaba - BABA, TWTR (if weekly close above $19.5) and would short NVDA. Please keep tight stops at 5% below 50d SMA or 20 week SMA. You can find these values on our site when you plot the charts on the www.trucharts.com/stockcharts.aspx page. 

We have added new features such as customizable multiple screener for various technical signals on our site under "Screener" menu option - check it out.  

We have video tours of our site on how to use the site effectively - please do check it out.

We have a discounted subscriber pricing which is at $10 per month or $120 annually. Please check this out on our subscriber page.

Good luck trading.

B. Bhatia
Founder/CEO - Trucharts.com


November 1, 2015

Best October Market Rally, Do you Buy, Sell or Hold?

Best October Market Rally, Do you Buy, Sell or Hold?

Trucharts.com Blog update week of 10/26/2015


Well again due to some business commitments we were unable to update our weekly blog for over two weeks now. We are finally back and updating our readers on what has transpired and with all the financial media going nuts over the best October rally, we have to sit back and see what to do next and plan for Q4. Check out our site for the best buy/sell signals for stocks and just apply it on BABA stock and you will see why we went long at 62.. Go tot the stock charts page and click on the Trucharts Trading Strategies bar - seen in red below and you will get the different trading strategy options to apply to the chart - (please read our disclaimers - please do your due diligence and consult with your financial adviser before making investment decisions) - this is for information purposes only. We offer this to our paying and free subscribed users only. You can try this on VRX and you will see it generated a SELL signal around 220.



There is no doubt that the rally was expected. We had discussed this in our last blog and our updates via twitter (twitter handle: @trucharts) and on facebook at (https://www.facebook.com/truchartscom-273554162830234/) - we expected S&P to reach around 2100, DJIA to reach around 17800 to 18000 and that is exactly what the indices did during the October rally and with earnings season in full force - markets responded to stocks with good earnings. We believe that this is a short lived rally and even if we hit new highs, we would sell into the rallies. Markets are not significantly overbought yet so we expect some sideways movements in the indices. The Fed spoke (amazing) and now that they realize they are well behind the curve in raising rates, the again tried to spook the markets by indicating a possible rate hike for December. Markets are in bubble mode - real estate along with it and it is not just here but all around the world. We have bubble blowers and Central banks printing money while earnings from companies are drying up and not even meeting lower estimates. The Wall Street gang plays this game beautifully, lower the estimates and when the companies report slightly better results, the street starts their cheering. One has to look through the numbers - but from a technical trading point of view you just have to be ready to trade based on the earnings announcements. Here are some charts for the S&P , DJIA and a chart we pulled from a very interesting article on M&A activity which typically tends to peak around market tops.

ADDED: Another good read:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-31/quick-bull-vs-bear-case-8-charts

Link to article: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-beginning-end-bull-market-131106708.html 

Source Bloomberg/UBS:


From the charts below for SP500 and DJIA we expect sideways movement and possible new highs into Q4 due to a typically strong Q4 season for the markets and we would lighten up into this sideways and possible upward movement. We would not hesistate to write covered calls on long positions. We have done that already for many of our accounts. Many tobacco stocks appear overbought, so we would either sell these or hedge with puts or reduce cost basis via covered call strategy. We are long PM and LLY. Our MRK position got called away.

As you can see the MACD is getting extended as is the RSI reaching overbought conditions. But we expect this to last for sometime with minor pullbacks and sideways movements.


 

We would lighten up on biotech stocks and health insurance companies. We believe that Obamacare is a total disaster and will very likely get repealed if the GOP takes the White house. The premiums are unaffordable and we are seeing several co-ops going out of business due to high costs and then the insured are being put into a situation with no coverage and high costs. We believe this will not end well and there will be a new wave or change in the healthcare system in this nation. The current scenario is not sustainable and is designed heavily in the favor of insurance companies and drug companies. We also think these insurance companies may have reached a peak in their earnings cycle. Our net portfolio is short tech stocks. AAPL seems to have peaked and we do not expect any major move in AAPL - we still like NFLX - as Q4 is a strong season for them.

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team

September 27, 2015

NASDAQ,DOW and SPY where are these headed? What to do with your portfolio? Trucharts Weekly Blog

Trucharts Weekly Blog

NASDAQ,DOW and SPY where are these headed? What to do with your portfolio?


Sorry that we were unable to publish our blog last weekend due to some family commitments. Well the Fed speech impact was short lived and then volatility picked up in the past week and the biggest standout was the biotech sector which had driven up the NASDAQ to its 2000 highs and everyone on TV was still bullish on biotech sector. As much as we like some stocks in the drug sector and the biotech sector, the valuations were not justified - in addition, we were seeing heavy insider selling in many companies. Many biotech companies with no revenues were showing exponential charts and if you recall how we warned about exponential charts - these always are a bad sign of things to come. Just check out some of the high flyers in the biotech sector. We were also seeing weakening technical signals in the ETF IBB when it was hitting new highs.


Check these stocks:

www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=BLUE
www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=ICPT

and then there are many more in this sector that would move on the smallest drug news. Absolutely ridiculous. We have been saying to keep and eye on the 50 week SMA for ETF IBB (which we have been short), and sure enough once it broke the line in the sand it cascaded down and now it is a pure short. We are stil short but we are long BIS (short ETF) which closed for the first time above 50 week SMA - here is a comparison chart (IBB vs BIS). Check the BIS volume - highest ever.

We also have the chart here for the buy/sell signals for IBB on weekly chart - see below (this feature is provided to our registered/subscribed users). We think IBB is headed to around 260 - 280 range. There will be margin calls on folks who are long biotech stocks.

  



Now where do we think the markets are headed - gold moved up after Godmother Yellen spoke on Thursday that rates would rise in 2015 and markets were up in on Friday early and then pulled back later in the afternoon. We believe the institutions are moving into the comfort of consumer cyclicals, staples and high divided yielding stocks in sectors that are still strong. We are concerned that we may see dividend cuts in the stocks of oil companies - just a guess - but with oil down - there is no way these companies can sustain such high payouts. In addition, we expect massive layoffs and the oil states economies will be affected (Texas, Louisiana and others). We like NKE after their earnings report. We hav been playing with NFLX and are short FIT/GPRO (valuation too high). We expect the DOW to stay range bound 15000 - 17000 for some time here, SPY is headed to around 1750 - current price is 192.85. We would be very careful here - SPY and DIA have broken 100 week SMA. 

China slowdown has now shown up in 2 major equipment suppliers - JOY and CAT. CHina is definitely slowing down and we have to see if they are headed the way of Japan. In addition, the central banks are still running loose with money printing and it seems to be helping the top 1% only. Brazil is going to the dogs with its credit rating cut. The rates for 10 year bonds in Brazil have shot up to 16% - want buy some Brazil debt - anyone? We would stay away from these stocks. We like gold stocks - but we need to see high volume breakout - we are not there yet. We encourage to write covered calls on your positions - that is what we have done and that has protected our portfolio. The trend is down. The ony thing in favor of the indices is the RSI is oversold - but needs to consolidate. Here is weekly chart for SPY:





Check out our site features at the best subscription rates in the industry and on the web:


Good luck trading.

Stay nimble.

Trucharts Team and Founder/CEO


September 3, 2015

Why bubbles exist and monetary policy is still easy!!

Why Bubbles exist and monetary policy:


Read this and see why we have bubbles everywhere - one day the fat lady will sing and (it happened in 2008), and the chicken will come home to roost. Thanks to the stupid Fed (Greenspan, Yellen and Bernanke) are all to blame and the US government was towing the line with Fannie And Freddie Mac which went bankrupt.. Unbelievable and now we are in another stock and real estate bubble in USA and many countries around the world due to the easy monetary policies.

http://www.businessinsider.com/worldwide-monetary-policy-in-one-chart-2015-9


Also watch this video - unbelievable - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYTyluv4Gws

From a trading perspective - we are still net short and our AMBA short worked very well, along with IBB short - we like this trade - long AMGN, short IBB. We are short tech stocks still - PYPL,INTC,SWKS.

Trucharts team