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Showing posts with label gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gold. Show all posts

July 13, 2017

Fed testimony, Markets, Tech Stocks and Backtest feature on our site


Fed testimony, Markets, Tech Stocks and Backtest feature on our site


LATEST UPDATE: Yellen dovishness sparked huge market move and tech stocks came off oversold conditions. Revenue growth is not there - but we are in bubble mode. We like the following pair trade - Long NFLX calls, Short NVDA. VIX is at all time low and volume in markets is also low - therefore the grind higher. Keep tight trailing stops. SP500 is going to 2500 and DOW to 22000. No stopping this bubble - we like also KLAC and AMAT. BA was our top pick and we still like it.

Brief update on the markets and Yellen testimony. 

Well looks like the squirrel went back into its hole - Yellen and the central bankers are now clueless as to what to do - one moment they are hawkish and then the next two weeks they become dovish. They are so scared now to raise rates, that they have just completely given up. They talked about reigning in the monetary stimulus via draining liquidity from the system by selling their assets on their huge balance sheet of over $4T - loaded with mortgage backed securities. They want to start this in September and increase that as they go along. In addition, Grandma Yellen also indicated that she may not be raising rates (of course that would increase our debt burden) T aggressively - the markets rocked up in a straight line, dollar crashed but gold was up slightly. Basically the Fed is saying we do not care about the bubbles, asset valuations and whatever else the loose monetary policy has unleashed in asset bubbles around the world. Case in example - do you know that the Indian stock market is up over 1000% - yes 1000% - in 14 years - no one is mentioning that the Indian banks are drowning in NPLs - but yet the market is up over 1000%. PEs and company valuations in the US are at levels not seen since the 2000 and 2007 heights and moving higher. But the central banks do not care as this is making the rich richer and the goal is to make the average guy feel richer. Nasdaq is out performing and we are heading into earnings season for Q2 - we will have to wait and see how the companies manipulate their results using financial engineering and stock buybacks etc. Oil has been crashing - we had predicted that and we will have to wait and see how that plays out. Tech stocks are rocking and rolling like there is no bound to valuations and PEs - sounds like the 1999-2000 bubble times (i remember those days very distinctly). FAANG stocks are rocking and we like NFLX and AMZN. FB is breaking out and we need to watch carefully where it goes. We like BABA, QCOM, BA, CAT, LLY, AAPL and are short NVDA. Airline stocks like UAL are about to breakout and rail stocks along with defense stocks look good. Even though there may be issues with the valuations etc., these do not matter as we are in full bubble mode - in Bay area people are over bidding on houses by over 350K with multiple offers - exactly like 1999. We expect this to continue. In addition, we are not seeing any real technical weakness in the markets other retail and oil stocks. We also like EEM as merging markets are doing well.

Always put a stop limit loss of 5% to 10% below 50d SMA to limit your loss or gains in case there is a crash. Check these values on weekly charts also - like 13 week and 20 week SMA.

Also spend your time to learn how to trade options - it helps to reduce and improve your portfolio risk and return.


There is a very unique feature on our site - call backtest and we use it for checking certain technical analysis parameters for many stocks to see which yield the best winning results. Here is an example for stock Facebook or FB and you can see one of our trading strategies generated a buy signal on 7/7 and the results showed that this was a very strong signal for FB and it yielded 7 winners and 1 losing trade. So there was a very high probability that the signal would yield to higher prices and sure enough the stock moved over $8 in 3 days to 159. See the snippet of the testing below:

It is tested over 600 trading bars and the results are amazing. We will be restricting use of this to paid subscribers only very soon and you have a chance to test it out. You can also check out our videos on youtube - links are on our site - www.trucharts.com.

Good luck trading.

June 27, 2017

Mr. Market, Yellen, Gold, Tech stocks and bubbles

Markets, Yellen, Fed, gold, Tech stocks and bubbles

Well another week and Monday markets were up and all the bulls were running around predicting that the markets were headed higher. Sure enough we had a down week last week and Grandma Yellen's move to tighten is still being partially ignored by the markets. TLT or bonds were moving higher with yields moving down. We like TLT and have been long since 120. Check the chart here:


There was a heavy rotation into the biotech stocks this past week. The move in the biotech ETFs such as XBI, IBB and BIB were excellent and look like weekly breakouts. We expect these to move higher based on their weekly chart patterns. Check these charts below and we would expect a pullback before we would take any long positions.

Weekly charts:



We believe the rotation is coming out of tech stocks and moving into alternate investments that have been lagging. There is no question that we are in a bubble mode for all assets - the question is, when will this bubble burst. Over 90% of the tech stocks are trading at ridiculous PEs and valuations (that are above the 2000 stock bubble). 

Even with Fed tightening, central banks around the world are still in easing and loose monetary policy mode. 

Gold has been bouncing around this level between 1200 - 1330 for quite some time. Technicals are negative and we have to see a decisive break above the weekly moving averages of 13, 50 and 100 to turn bullish. We do not see that happening unless there is a monetary crisis a.k.a China Yuan or some other country currency crashing.

In the tech stocks we like, QCOM and WDC. These stocks relative to their peers are cheap and have good dividends and low PEs. We also like Alibaba - BABA, TWTR (if weekly close above $19.5) and would short NVDA. Please keep tight stops at 5% below 50d SMA or 20 week SMA. You can find these values on our site when you plot the charts on the www.trucharts.com/stockcharts.aspx page. 

We have added new features such as customizable multiple screener for various technical signals on our site under "Screener" menu option - check it out.  

We have video tours of our site on how to use the site effectively - please do check it out.

We have a discounted subscriber pricing which is at $10 per month or $120 annually. Please check this out on our subscriber page.

Good luck trading.

B. Bhatia
Founder/CEO - Trucharts.com