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Showing posts with label stock charting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock charting. Show all posts

February 22, 2016

Markets Post Xmas hangover, SP500 line in the sand breached and how to prepare for 2016; The movie "The Big Short"

Markets Post Xmas hangover - SP500 line in the sand breached and how to prepare for 2016; 

The movie "The Big Short"

Ok it has been a REALLY long time since I updated my blog. Was out of it for a while for many reasons but suffice to say that I will do my best to keep our readers updated as much as I can on the latest conditions about the happenings in the markets and my predictions.

Well we have had a helluva of a ride in January and thank the Lord we were short. I was expecting some run up into the 1st week but that did not happen. We knew that the 2015 end of the year ramp was a who can beat the next fund manager race and we made money in it while the going was good and then the bottom fell out of the markets - I guess they are saying oil - but we beg to differ - we think oil was one factor but in addition the markets were, and are, still overvalued. We had the standard drop to old support and the standard "W" bounce backup - very textbook pattern and we expect the markets to move up to the 50d SMA coming in from an oversold condition, high bearishness and elevated volatility. Personally I think we are headed lower but for the short term the bulls have the upper hand. And with Grandma Yellen and the Fed out of the way for March - the party is on.. We said short many of our favorites like - IBB, QCOM, AMBA, FIT and many more - we covered a lot of these shorts and are planning to cover some more this week to have some ammo for some short term long trades. We like a paired trade like long AMGN short IBB and writing weekly calls and puts. In addition, BIDU is reporting this week, as is HD. We are looking to go long BIDU and waiting to short HD if their earnings/forecast do not look strong. We think HD is topped out - but we need confirmation that the housing is sort of peaking out here.

I personally believe that the Superbowl 50 was the mark of the super debt and commodity cycle. Gold - our favorite metal did well - but we need to wait for a nice pullback and consolidation. In the end gold is the best currency. As I write this gold is down 20+ and markets are rocking!! We have to see the bears capitulate a little bit before the next leg down. Be nimble..

Now for my rant on politics in the USA - It is the biggest sham ever put in the face of the public. It is such a shame that there is no real leaders in this amazing country where we had folks like Abraham Lincoln and so many more Presidents that made us feel proud to be an American - After George Bush Sr - it has been all downhill - Obama - fuck Obamacare - the worst health care law ever enacted - - we do not live in a free market society - we live in a collusion/cartel of insurance company health care system along with the drug companies - go see how the biotech execs have been cashing out of their stock - mind blowing, to say the least.. Hillary - liar and panderer, Trump Incompetent - no idea what he is talking about or saying, Sanders - Give everything for free and blame the corporations except the fucking government - Cruz - owned by the Big Boys as is Rubio - thank God Jeb is gone, as is Christie - owned by the mafia and even looks like the Mafia and I feel sad for Rand Paul - not that I agree with everything he says - but he was a really good candidate - and the media just keeps giving Trump so much free advertising and you can tell the media is so totally biased with the incessant analysis is way beyond crazy.. Where do people find so much time?? None of the candidates are even worth becoming vice president - much less president. Sad state of affairs for this amazing country - what blows my mind is how people even listen to Hillary talk - she is speaks from both sides of her mouth - saying one thing and at the same time telling herself how stupid the citizens of this country are. It is truly mind boggling. Our votes have no meaning - that is how the whole system is designed. All these debates are just a show and nothing else - Hillary will be president - that is the plan and Trump is part of this whole sham. Noise in the system..

Now for one of the best movies of all time - goes in my top 10 list - "The Big Short" - Please see this movie and it will teach you why sometimes you have to go against the crowd. When we were running our hedge fund ( I wish we had known about the insurance on CDSs') - anyway we were short the housing market - and no one would believe us and they started pulling their money out of our fund. After the crash of 2008-2009 - people agreed that we were right. We see the same state of housing - I know I may be early - but the tell tale signs are there - and it will come crashing again. It is like a double top and that is what I believe we are witnessing - easy credit and easy money printing and bubble blowing by the Fed - Big Ben and then his apparent clueless prodigy Grandma Yellen - what a disaster. The Fed has done nothing, along with the bankers of this country - then ruin the whole economy - it is easy when money is free to print - we are in debt to our eyeballs and yet we act like - no big deal. At the rate we are going - we will cross 20T this year.. States are going to go broke and then the government will too.. Buy gold, land and hoard cash because they are going after our retirement accounts soon.. It is coming - be ready..

Anyway - I am travelling again after a long period of some sickness - in Hong Kong waiting for my flight to India and then going to China on my way back to start a new business venture. I will keep trading as I love it and it is one of my passions.  Do check out our site - we have made many changes and improvements and do subscribe - it helps pay for our self funded developers/server and data charges and keeps us motivated to do more. Not to brag - but I do think we have a very unique site and for the end user we provide some of the best features. We are working on more features and will keep doing so. We have the best buy/sell signals with our proprietary strategies - check these out on the stockcharts page.

Good luck trading and best wishes.

B Bhatia
Founder/CEO trucharts.com

May 31, 2015

Markets Direction - Up or Down? Where are we headed? Trucharts.com Blog Update

Markets Direction - Up or Down? Where are we headed? Weekend Blog Update week ending 5/29/15

We have not had a chance to do a weekend update due to the jet lag from travel and other pressing matters. Finally getting some time to put my thoughts down related to the markets from the past 3 weeks and heading into the summer session.

Well NASDAQ hit a new high, markets moved higher and many earnings were reported. Avago bought Broadcom - a $37B acquisition (we think they paid too much - almost 5.5x sales) and then we have Intel buying ALTR this week - from an earnings we had HD, LOW and many other companies that reported earnings in the past couple of weeks. ULTA also reported but the stock reversed after reporting its earnings as did HD. There is talk of additional mergers in the semi company space - here are the companies that we think are ripe for consolidation - MXIM, IDTI, TXN, SLAB, MCHP, ADI, NVDA, AMD, SWKS, MRVL, XLNX, AMBA and probably many others we are missing.  Keep an eye on these stocks. NXPI, AVGO, INTC and other big semi companies would be possible acquirers. With the AVGO and BRCM merger - the merged company will be the 3rd largest semiconductor company after INTC (1) and QCOM (2).

Our drug stock picks LLY, MYL and TEVA still holding strong. The biotech sector has been holding the NASDAQ up and we expect that this sector will eventually fall - we just cannot predict when - there is technical weakness in the ETFs in the biotech sector.

We are very concerned about the underlying weakness in the markets - structurally. We are seeing many stocks breaking down in the DOW and S&P500. In addition, stocks are reversing after reporting earnings - check HD, ULTA. Housing stocks are dropping - indicating that the markets are anticipating rate hikes from the Fed. We think the Fed sees an asset bubble and are being left with no choice but to start raising the Fed funds rate. Housing prices are moving up. unemployment is down to 5.3%, homes on the west coast are selling at prices higher than asking - and this has been the longest period for the rates being at near zero - now close to 6+ years and over the past week we posted an article on FB and G+ where Byron Wein discusses how the Fed has pumped over $3T into the markets - we concur. And then we see this article over the weekend:

All these are pointing to over valuation in the markets and the complacency is remarkable. The VIX was down last week and we expect this to spike higher in the coming weeks. We stated that we would take profits here and hedge positions with calls and puts. Adding some shorts is in our plan for the coming week.  We are long BIDU, TWTR, Z (all hedged with covered calls) and are looking to short MSFT, and possibly IBM. 

Just take a look at the stocks that popped on our sell signal strategy here:Just sort the page by volume from highest to lowest by clicking on the volume column twice: 

Watch for our regular daily posts and positions updates on Twitter and FB.

Again - watch the Greek situation, China stock bubble, and sell here to take some profits and wait for a better opportunity.

Good luck trading. Check out our special subscription rates and we offer the best feature set on the web for our lowest subscription rates - here is the link: 

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Link is: Backtest feature - play with it and you can use it to try some paper trades.

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Trucharts founder and team

March 22, 2015

Where are the markets headed this week and hot stocks to watch - Trucharts.com Blog

Trucharts.com Blog week ending 3/20/2015

Where are the markets headed this coming week and what are the hot stocks to watch this week.

The Fed spoke and the markets rocketed higher last week and gold moved higher and stocks responded positively to the Fed comments - bonds moved higher and yields dropped, the dollar was crushed for a short time and then bounced back. We still like the US dollar and we expect the Euro to head lower. The Fed is cornered and scared to do anything to upset the markets - and they are into playing 'WORD' games - patient and impatient etc. It is truly absurd how the markets are so hung up on words from the Fed. The markets were driven down heading into the Fed meeting and then the VIX got crushed and all the market indices rocketed higher right after the Fed meeting. Basically the Fed said they will not raise rates in June - something that was not surprising to us - we do not expect the Fed to raise rates at all this year even though there is lot of jawboning going on by the Fed and it's governors.

The DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS climbed above the 18K number - NASDAQ buoyed by the flaming biotech stocks and semiconductor stocks breached the 5000 mark and has everyone now waiting and talking about breaking the 2000 high - which we expect is coming to get all the news talking heads excited and bubbling with joy.

Biotech stocks the darlings of Wall Street are having price movements like the internet stocks of 2000 - we do not know when or how this is going to end - companies are buying other smaller rivals or companies with potential blockbuster drugs - and this can last as long as we are in this Fed driven rally and a zero interest rate environment - which says keep taking risks until We (the FED) says time out.

Technically speaking even though the RSI and MACD are exhibiting lower highs with this move up - the patterns seems to indicate higher highs. The NASDAQ is technically broken out to a new high. There maybe some pullbacks (consolidation) - but the trend is for higher highs. We are heading into earnings reporting season and need to be on guard for any potential earnings warnings - please keep these in mind prior to taking any big positions or longer term bullish positions.

AAPL was integrated into the DOW Industrials this week and is a Dow component now. We would be watchful of AAPL here. SBUX announced a stock split this week and SWKS, NXPI and AVGO hit brand new all time highs. Check out our reports page at www.trucharts.com/marketreports.aspx for stock lists with technical breakouts etc.

The biotech sector is on fire and we were wrong on our call in this sector but still believe that this sector is definitely overextended - but right now the sector is still in the hands of the bulls - just check stocks like www.trucharts.com/stockview.asp?TICK=REGN - please check the stock from period 2000 to now and you will see what we mean by exponential moves.

Stocks we picked last week - LLY and SO, PCG did well during this week and LLY was up over $6 from our pick price. 

Stocks we like this week - TWTR, MYL and TEVA - we will be watching these closely and be looking to go long TWTR. Here are the weekly charts (TEVA is breaking out):


Good luck trading.

Trucharts.com team and Founder