Is Tech Party over Fed and Grandma Yellen, ECB and Grandpa Draghi..

Is the Tech Stock party over??

So did the Fed crash the tech party and the bubble it created - what will it do to other asset bubbles. What will happen in the future with all the debt built up into the system and why have the billionaires become even richer in this cycle. The answer is Greed!! The Fed, ECB and central banks know that there is no way out of this debt cycle and bubble they have created and are responsible for. In the name of trying to save doomed and heavily taxed economies of the world and then making promises they cannot keep, the central banks are in a big bind - keep printing money and grow the debt or try to drain the liquidity. They have boxed themselves into a corner. 

The whole world has now over 280% debt to GDP ratio - Yes over 280% - thanks to Central banks and our crazy fractional banking system. Every nation is going to pay the price and the Fed has tried to perk up stock prices and has created another massive bubble in stocks and housing - it is called lather, rinse, repeat - when will these folks ever learn - that asset bubbles created from such loose monetary policies allow the folks at the top to get even richer and the lower class and middle class really do not get any benefit. Wages are stagnant and all the house buying is supported by elevated stock prices.

So did the Fed finally realize that the end is near.. and that they need to do something to stop their balance sheet from growing - did the ECB just realize that they are also complicit in perpetrating an asset bubble - just take a look at student debt, auto loan debt, and credit card debt just in the US. Consumer debt in UK, Australia and all countries is at exorbitant levels relative to income. Then there is corporate debt which has grown massively while rates have been low - will these go into default - what about the energy sector companies - will these be able to service their debt loads and their dividends?? 

The tech stocks and Nasdaq have had a massive run up and the valuations are at nose bleed levels. All these companies have manipulated earnings by doing stock buybacks and cost adjustments via layoffs and outsourcing. Real revenue growth is evident in very few companies and lot of the semiconductor companies businesses are very cyclical. Many of these stocks - specially like NVDA are trading at multiples given to very speculative companies or IPOs. We are betting heavily against NVDA and believe it is going lot lower. The daily chart shows a climax high on the day it touched its all time high of 168.5. In addition, the chart is parabolic in nature and parabolic charts never end well. We like QCOM as a better investment even though it is in the middle of some lawsuits and fighting the FTC and Apple. But their purchase of NXPI is an awesome addition to their portfolio as NXPI has huge presence in China. We do not believe the true benefits of this acquisition is reflected in the current stock price. NXPIs' RFID technology is omnipresent in China and the rest of the world (ROW) and growing. QCOM has enough cash to keep the dividend payout and if the government decides to change the tax rate on dividends then watch out and all dividend paying stocks will crash. See our video on youtube at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFC5iVaTkQY

So we think the bell on the NASDAQ and the semi stocks. We advise taking profits aggressively. All key indicators of market bullishness are at levels seen only in 1929 and 2007. 2000 bubble mania was higher and was the biggest bubble ever.

DOW stocks are doing well and it appears that energy may be bottoming here. We like CAT, DE and BA (wait to buy this one). The biotech sector still looks good but we would sell JNJ and MRK. Housing stocks look ok. Bonds are down recently - watch these closely.

Futures are pointing to a higher open for Monday Jul 3. This is very typical action prior to Jul 4th holiday. Sell into this rally any tech stocks and take profits. AAPL is still cheap but we would wait to buy at lower prices. We like NKE but keep a stop at 55. Weekly chart looks good. Chart for NKE - www.trucharts.com/stockcharts.aspx?TICK=NKE

Good luck trading. 

B. Bhatia

Founder

Mr. Market, Yellen, Gold, Tech stocks and bubbles

Markets, Yellen, Fed, gold, Tech stocks and bubbles

Well another week and Monday markets were up and all the bulls were running around predicting that the markets were headed higher. Sure enough we had a down week last week and Grandma Yellen's move to tighten is still being partially ignored by the markets. TLT or bonds were moving higher with yields moving down. We like TLT and have been long since 120. Check the chart here:

www.trucharts.com/stockcharts.aspx?TICK=TLT

There was a heavy rotation into the biotech stocks this past week. The move in the biotech ETFs such as XBI, IBB and BIB were excellent and look like weekly breakouts. We expect these to move higher based on their weekly chart patterns. Check these charts below and we would expect a pullback before we would take any long positions.

Weekly charts:

We believe the rotation is coming out of tech stocks and moving into alternate investments that have been lagging. There is no question that we are in a bubble mode for all assets - the question is, when will this bubble burst. Over 90% of the tech stocks are trading at ridiculous PEs and valuations (that are above the 2000 stock bubble). 

Even with Fed tightening, central banks around the world are still in easing and loose monetary policy mode. 

Gold has been bouncing around this level between 1200 - 1330 for quite some time. Technicals are negative and we have to see a decisive break above the weekly moving averages of 13, 50 and 100 to turn bullish. We do not see that happening unless there is a monetary crisis a.k.a China Yuan or some other country currency crashing.

In the tech stocks we like, QCOM and WDC. These stocks relative to their peers are cheap and have good dividends and low PEs. We also like Alibaba - BABA, TWTR (if weekly close above $19.5) and would short NVDA. Please keep tight stops at 5% below 50d SMA or 20 week SMA. You can find these values on our site when you plot the charts on the www.trucharts.com/stockcharts.aspx page. 

We have added new features such as customizable multiple screener for various technical signals on our site under "Screener" menu option - check it out.  

We have video tours of our site on how to use the site effectively - please do check it out.

We have a discounted subscriber pricing which is at $10 per month or $120 annually. Please check this out on our subscriber page.

Good luck trading.

B. Bhatia
Founder/CEO - Trucharts.com

Fed meeting, gold, tech stocks and where we are headed

Fed Meeting - Fed stance, Gold and Where markets are headed

So the Fed meeting was over last week and they raised the rates by 0.25bp. In addition, indicated that they need to start winding down their balance sheet. Whoa!! Is Grandma Yellen and the Fed waking up to the scenario that they are the primary cause of the bubble - well surprise, surprise - they and all Central banks have co-ordinated this massive bubble and they have no idea how to truly unwind it. Stocks are trading at ridiculous valuations and at levels above the 2007 peak. The 1999-2000 peak was a real bubble of truly massive proportions - but we are now in an all out massive bubble in all assets except gold (maybe).

Tech stocks are valued at the highest EV/Sales ratio, high PE's and the insiders are cashing out. Does that sound familiar? Right now machines are trading and there we believe will be the catch 22 and the main risk. We can tell via our intraday charts when machines kick into the trades. Right now machines are running the show and there is very little human intervention. In addition, complacency is running at lows and we expect this to stay this way possibly through the summer.

We had predicted that the DOW stocks would hit new highs and many of the big names are hitting new highs. Our prediction of Dow 21500 was met this week and we do not see any reason for now that would not allow it to move higher.

We trade on technicals and these seem to be working very well - as we think the machines are programmed to work on technical signals. This is another reason to use our reports page to identify stocks that meet certain technical criteria.

So which stocks do we like - and how does one protect your portfolio.

Based on our analysis, we are seeing a move into the Dow component stocks and big names. We still like AAPL as it is cheap 0 but we would wait for a nice pullback before taking a position. We like BA, MDT, JNJ, CAT and DE. These are looking strong. 

We would take profits in tech stocks as we thinkthe tech cycle and bubble is over and although we may see signs of a rebound - we would sell into the rallies. There is definite rotation going on and tech is not the place to be at least for the summer or until the IPHONE 8 announcement happens. We are short NVDA and will stay short. We are long puts on NVDA also. 

We believe that the Fed is on a tightening and liquidity draining from the system and this will result in a profit taking in tech stocks as these are overvalued on all key parametrics - except for AAPL. In addition, please keep tight stops at around 8% to 10% or at 5% below 50d SMA depending on your buy price.

Check out our site - we offer AI based trading algorithms with clear buy/sell signals, end of day technical reports which work great to find good stocks to trade or buy.

We do not like gold as the Fed is in tightening mode and draining liquidity.

Good luck trading. 

Check out our site tour youtube video at -  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFC5iVaTkQY

Friday's Nasdaq Tech Bloodbath

Blog 6/10/2017 and 6/12/2017 

Trucharts.com

Was it a tech carnage or not?? Friday was a huge rollercoaster ride but we made out really well!Well, Friday started out like a good day in the markets with many of the FAANNG stocks hitting new highs and then reversing ending lower. AMZN moved around 100 points and we were very fortunate that we had closed our puts and were long the lower puts on many stocks and all of these made us some really good profits.We have been short NVDA and are staying short - we know this is a bubble stock trading at ridiculous valuations. Many of the stocks on the NASDAQ have been going up non stop in a straight line up with almost no end in sight - it looked and still looks like the bubble of 1999-2000 with a different feel. Everyone feels invincible and like a investment pro. It is all easy to think that one is a genius in investing when making money is so easy. It is days like Fridays when folks start getting margin calls that we see selling and then everyone tries ti buy the dip. We will have to wait and see if buying this dip makes sense. 

Now there was one key thing we had noticed on Thursday even when stocks were moving higher - MSFT was acting weak and that was a sign that something was changing. Everyone in the midea and online (CNBS - Cramer) has been harping on and on about NVDA - a chipmaker which momentarily reached a market cap of 100B - yes 100B and selling at price to sales ratio of around 12+ - no semiconductor company has ever traded at such a huge multiple or valuation. Also it is very common to see when stocks are high flying that analysts and idots on TV come out and try to justify the valuations of such stocks - vocalizing terms which they have no idea about like AI and VR etc. NVDA is a chip company - end oif story and their sales will never ever reach the lofty valuation it carries. NVDA is primarily a graphics chip company with lot of competition and this is a very hyped stock. We highly recommend taking profits, if long, and we are short and long NVDA puts.So what happened Friday tech stock bubble - we think there is a shakeout that took place. Technicals are still strong and until we actually see real technical breakdowns - we have to count it as a shakeout. In addition, it would be prudent to take some chips off the table and ring the bell on profits. Many of the stocks bounced up from their 20day and 50d SMAs. Very typical when machines are running the house. We can expect some bounce but we are also seeing rotation out of tech stocks, which we mentioned have been going up in straight line fashion, into energy and other sectors. 

Financials were strong but we still think this was a dead cat bounce. We like BAC and some financials, in energy we like beaten down names like SLB for short term plays. We also like some retail names - short term trades - GPS looks good. We would short SBUX, NVDA and LRCX. Although the real technical weakness or clear breakdown is not evident yet - have tight stops above at recent high. We suspect there will be some bounce back and maybe this was just a shakeout. We will have to wait and see confirmation - as there were no breakdowns below 50dSMA. NVDA was a classic textbook climax high reversal.

Financials were looking strong as these were oversold and oil bounced with gold closing lower. We need to watch for follow through on these next week. GPS chart looks good and we are watching BABA to see if it consolidates here for a breakout.Monday was a nice bounce back day. Many good formations on charts - need to watch closely - still short NVDA.Good luck trading and checkout our video on youtube and follow us on twitter (@trucharts). We will start posting more videos on youtube on how to use our site more effectively for trading decisions. Do subscribe - it is only $10 per month for full year subscription.

B. Bhatia
Founder - Trucharts.com

S&P and all indices at records - Wow Trump did have a huge impact on markets. Where do we go from here?

Welcome to the era of Trump and record high markets:

First of all, I wanted to apologize from being away so long from writing my blogs. Due to personal medical reasons, I was unable to keep my blog updated.

Well, we are definitely in the record books for sure. All indices at all time highs, financials were up, airlines up - everything is and has been going up. Financials did pull back from their highs after the Trump agenda does not seem to be materializing. But tech stocks - unbelievable run - all semi stocks, NVDA, AMD and many others are trading like it is 1999. Many amateurs are jumping into the market and let me tell you, I lived through 1999-2000, cashed out at the top - and this is looking like deja vu all over again - maybe to slightly smaller extent. Stocks are trading at sky high valuations and nobody cares, the media just keeps priming the pump and the bubble - along with the Fed.

It has been a nice run and we are still not seeing any real technical weakness - except in the financial stocks. AMZN, GOOG, FB, NFLX (or FANG stocks) along with TSLA are trading at valuations that are the GDPs of many nations combined together. I think it is getting crazy - but make hay while the sun shines. There is no regard for risk or risk aversion and therefore one as an investor or trader needs to make sure they have their stops in place. This is a good time to have one foot out the door. 

There is no question that this is a liquidity driven bubble, the Fed and all central banks are driving this bubble with no regard for the debt and market valuations. You can tell you are in a bubble when the markets and certain stocks bounce back to new highs even on bad news - mind you there has really been no real growth in revenue - there has been financial shenanigans and financial engineering to create wonderful rosy outcomes. Huge stock buybacks, and setting expectations low with the analysts community - and then during earnings season beating the estimates - sounds like a nice scam to me. But the SEC is powerless entity and they just play along. 

Anyway, we think there is still room at the top. With all this talk (no action) about tax reform, health care reform, infrastructure - well Mr. Trump does not seem to get that this is not like erecting a skyscraper - or just making a golf resort - this is the government and the government does not run like a business - and you cannot run it like a reality show - he just loves showmanship. Anyway, back to the markets.

So we like the following stocks - AAPL, WDC, PANW, INTC, QCOM - there are many others, but we are being opportunistic in our trades and watch for new highs and breakouts. We also look at the technical end of day reports from our site at www.trucharts.com/marketreports.aspx - look for RSI less than 30, improving RSI, TC Positional Buy signals and MACD crossover reports. 

The unemployment picture is not looking good - debt at consumer level is at record highs and this is already impacting the retail sector - obvious from the store closing and stock prices. Leadership is narrow and housing is looking like a major bubble - rides along with stock prices. 

We are in a bull market and heading higher into the IPHONE 8 season and going long AAPL is a good trade. Keep good stops and wait for our next update soon.


Good luck trading.

Trucharts.com
Founder

Markets Post Xmas hangover, SP500 line in the sand breached and how to prepare for 2016; The movie "The Big Short"

Markets Post Xmas hangover - SP500 line in the sand breached and how to prepare for 2016; 

The movie "The Big Short"

Ok it has been a REALLY long time since I updated my blog. Was out of it for a while for many reasons but suffice to say that I will do my best to keep our readers updated as much as I can on the latest conditions about the happenings in the markets and my predictions.

Well we have had a helluva of a ride in January and thank the Lord we were short. I was expecting some run up into the 1st week but that did not happen. We knew that the 2015 end of the year ramp was a who can beat the next fund manager race and we made money in it while the going was good and then the bottom fell out of the markets - I guess they are saying oil - but we beg to differ - we think oil was one factor but in addition the markets were, and are, still overvalued. We had the standard drop to old support and the standard "W" bounce backup - very textbook pattern and we expect the markets to move up to the 50d SMA coming in from an oversold condition, high bearishness and elevated volatility. Personally I think we are headed lower but for the short term the bulls have the upper hand. And with Grandma Yellen and the Fed out of the way for March - the party is on.. We said short many of our favorites like - IBB, QCOM, AMBA, FIT and many more - we covered a lot of these shorts and are planning to cover some more this week to have some ammo for some short term long trades. We like a paired trade like long AMGN short IBB and writing weekly calls and puts. In addition, BIDU is reporting this week, as is HD. We are looking to go long BIDU and waiting to short HD if their earnings/forecast do not look strong. We think HD is topped out - but we need confirmation that the housing is sort of peaking out here.

I personally believe that the Superbowl 50 was the mark of the super debt and commodity cycle. Gold - our favorite metal did well - but we need to wait for a nice pullback and consolidation. In the end gold is the best currency. As I write this gold is down 20+ and markets are rocking!! We have to see the bears capitulate a little bit before the next leg down. Be nimble..

Now for my rant on politics in the USA - It is the biggest sham ever put in the face of the public. It is such a shame that there is no real leaders in this amazing country where we had folks like Abraham Lincoln and so many more Presidents that made us feel proud to be an American - After George Bush Sr - it has been all downhill - Obama - fuck Obamacare - the worst health care law ever enacted - - we do not live in a free market society - we live in a collusion/cartel of insurance company health care system along with the drug companies - go see how the biotech execs have been cashing out of their stock - mind blowing, to say the least.. Hillary - liar and panderer, Trump Incompetent - no idea what he is talking about or saying, Sanders - Give everything for free and blame the corporations except the fucking government - Cruz - owned by the Big Boys as is Rubio - thank God Jeb is gone, as is Christie - owned by the mafia and even looks like the Mafia and I feel sad for Rand Paul - not that I agree with everything he says - but he was a really good candidate - and the media just keeps giving Trump so much free advertising and you can tell the media is so totally biased with the incessant analysis is way beyond crazy.. Where do people find so much time?? None of the candidates are even worth becoming vice president - much less president. Sad state of affairs for this amazing country - what blows my mind is how people even listen to Hillary talk - she is speaks from both sides of her mouth - saying one thing and at the same time telling herself how stupid the citizens of this country are. It is truly mind boggling. Our votes have no meaning - that is how the whole system is designed. All these debates are just a show and nothing else - Hillary will be president - that is the plan and Trump is part of this whole sham. Noise in the system..

Now for one of the best movies of all time - goes in my top 10 list - "The Big Short" - Please see this movie and it will teach you why sometimes you have to go against the crowd. When we were running our hedge fund ( I wish we had known about the insurance on CDSs') - anyway we were short the housing market - and no one would believe us and they started pulling their money out of our fund. After the crash of 2008-2009 - people agreed that we were right. We see the same state of housing - I know I may be early - but the tell tale signs are there - and it will come crashing again. It is like a double top and that is what I believe we are witnessing - easy credit and easy money printing and bubble blowing by the Fed - Big Ben and then his apparent clueless prodigy Grandma Yellen - what a disaster. The Fed has done nothing, along with the bankers of this country - then ruin the whole economy - it is easy when money is free to print - we are in debt to our eyeballs and yet we act like - no big deal. At the rate we are going - we will cross 20T this year.. States are going to go broke and then the government will too.. Buy gold, land and hoard cash because they are going after our retirement accounts soon.. It is coming - be ready..

Anyway - I am travelling again after a long period of some sickness - in Hong Kong waiting for my flight to India and then going to China on my way back to start a new business venture. I will keep trading as I love it and it is one of my passions.  Do check out our site - we have made many changes and improvements and do subscribe - it helps pay for our self funded developers/server and data charges and keeps us motivated to do more. Not to brag - but I do think we have a very unique site and for the end user we provide some of the best features. We are working on more features and will keep doing so. We have the best buy/sell signals with our proprietary strategies - check these out on the stockcharts page.

Good luck trading and best wishes.

B Bhatia
Founder/CEO trucharts.com

Happy Post Thanksgiving Blog - Markets and where these are headed going into 2016?

Happy Post Thanksgiving Blog - Markets and where these are headed going into 2016?

Started writing the blog in Hong Kong and now continuing to write in Singapore (a truly amazing city - so clean - it is like spotless). Still writing (now from Singapore lounge - Hong Kong airport is soooo much better).. 

Schizophrenic markets controlled by Central Bank speak and driving us crazy.. Down one day and up another just because of Central Banks (specifically Draghi - he is becoming such an annoyance) - Eurzone economy sucks - just suck it up and go home. What a waste of time. Well we had two days of trading on the downside and after the stupid huge ramp on Friday, because of options expiration and Draghi speak, we still expect the markets to stay range bound due to Q4 seasonality and technically weak. Energy stocks are crashing and our theme has been consistent on the energy stocks - stay away from these and our target for oil was between 35-60 - now we are at the low end of this range - tough to say where it goes - commodity complex is crashing and I was told that folks who bought real estate in many places (folks who were in the commodity business) are trying to dump their real estate holdings to pay off debts and get liquid. The COMMODITY boom is way over.. What happens to gold?? This will be tough sledging for gold with rate hikes coming. Negative interest rates in the Eurozone - who ever thought we would have negative interest rates - these are truly amazing times and the printing binge is not ending - then Saudi Arabia just secured financing for the tallest building in the world - Who the fuck wants to live in Saudi Arabia other than the fu%$$ng Arabs in such hot weather and crappy place. Having lived in the Middle East for a long part of my life - I hated every minute of it there. Someone's ego needs to be stoked - Alwaleed Bin Talal!! Ridiculous - this country is going broke and they are worried about tallest building in the world. Such BS..These people will never learn - they are here to just stoke their stupid egos.. 

Finally able to write freely after the stupid censors and blogging restrictions, 2 days of overcoming food poisoning in China - makes you wonder how is this country going to really move into the 21st century if it blocks freedom of speech, gets away with human rights violations and yet we welcome it everywhere - sounds too hypocritical to me. But, the progress in China is unbelievable - they keep on building - i think I counted over 500 cranes (since I was bored) in the taxi from Dongguan to Shenzhen. Crazy. There is no stopping the real estate train in China - not happening..Who knows where and how this will end - but right now it keeps chugging along. Travelled to India on this trip another crazy place with so much traffic, pollution and no control - and yet people keep talking about the Indian economy growing - where - it is predominantly driven by real estate, black money and infrastructure sucks, loans are defaulting and banks keep lending. The world is going crazy with the carry trade and there is no telling what the outcome is going to be. Right now everyone is acting like a drunken sailor and there is non stop money printing going on with no end in sight. Sounds like the good old Roman empire days..Well thanksgiving was great for the markets and black Friday looked good except online buying was even stronger. Then Yellen spoke and we had two down days right after that markets bounced on Draghi speaking.

It is typically a strong part of the year for the markets so you would have to buy the dips here - in strong stocks, typically Q4 is the best performing quarters and with quite a bit of under performance this year for many funds including hedge funds, we would expect a run on stocks going into the end of the year primarily in the big names that are holding the markets up - what we call the Trojan horses - AMZN,NFLX,GOOGL,FB,BIDU,BABA, and many others in this list and also top names that are underperforming this year will be picked up just to show good or at par performance relative to the markets - so our position would be to go net long here in the big names and ULTA also fits into that list. We stated in our previous blogs and on twitter that we liked the tobacco stocks(MO and PM) and LLY. We were net long the market with these stocks and these performed well for us. We have been short puts on YHOO - we like the idea of the sale of the core business - stock could go to 40.

Please do check out our site for our great buy/sell signals - we have been posting the charts on twiiter (follow @trucharts) - we have some amazing buy/sell signal strategies and we followed them for the energy stocks and that saved us a ton of money - specially stocks like SDRl, RIG, XOM, CVX and XLE. 

For 2016, we expect huge challenges for the markets due to lowered earnings and there is lot of technical issues with the markets that do not suggest a higher market - narrow breadth, leadership and overvaluation in many sectors - tech specifically. We would stay in some consumer staples with dividend stocks and stocks which have proven earnings power and options for hedging.  AAPL going into Q1 still looks good - but we would would hedge our position. Watch VIX closely - whenever it shoots to 30 - 40 range - start buying and we would sell biotech here - biotech bubble is over. Good luck trading.

Trucharts Founder/CEO and team
BB

Best October Market Rally, Do you Buy, Sell or Hold?

Best October Market Rally, Do you Buy, Sell or Hold?

Trucharts.com Blog update week of 10/26/2015

Well again due to some business commitments we were unable to update our weekly blog for over two weeks now. We are finally back and updating our readers on what has transpired and with all the financial media going nuts over the best October rally, we have to sit back and see what to do next and plan for Q4. Check out our site for the best buy/sell signals for stocks and just apply it on BABA stock and you will see why we went long at 62.. Go tot the stock charts page and click on the Trucharts Trading Strategies bar - seen in red below and you will get the different trading strategy options to apply to the chart - (please read our disclaimers - please do your due diligence and consult with your financial adviser before making investment decisions) - this is for information purposes only. We offer this to our paying and free subscribed users only. You can try this on VRX and you will see it generated a SELL signal around 220.

There is no doubt that the rally was expected. We had discussed this in our last blog and our updates via twitter (twitter handle: @trucharts) and on facebook at (https://www.facebook.com/truchartscom-273554162830234/) - we expected S&P to reach around 2100, DJIA to reach around 17800 to 18000 and that is exactly what the indices did during the October rally and with earnings season in full force - markets responded to stocks with good earnings. We believe that this is a short lived rally and even if we hit new highs, we would sell into the rallies. Markets are not significantly overbought yet so we expect some sideways movements in the indices. The Fed spoke (amazing) and now that they realize they are well behind the curve in raising rates, the again tried to spook the markets by indicating a possible rate hike for December. Markets are in bubble mode - real estate along with it and it is not just here but all around the world. We have bubble blowers and Central banks printing money while earnings from companies are drying up and not even meeting lower estimates. The Wall Street gang plays this game beautifully, lower the estimates and when the companies report slightly better results, the street starts their cheering. One has to look through the numbers - but from a technical trading point of view you just have to be ready to trade based on the earnings announcements. Here are some charts for the S&P , DJIA and a chart we pulled from a very interesting article on M&A activity which typically tends to peak around market tops.

ADDED: Another good read:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-31/quick-bull-vs-bear-case-8-charts

Link to article: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-beginning-end-bull-market-131106708.html 

Source Bloomberg/UBS:

From the charts below for SP500 and DJIA we expect sideways movement and possible new highs into Q4 due to a typically strong Q4 season for the markets and we would lighten up into this sideways and possible upward movement. We would not hesistate to write covered calls on long positions. We have done that already for many of our accounts. Many tobacco stocks appear overbought, so we would either sell these or hedge with puts or reduce cost basis via covered call strategy. We are long PM and LLY. Our MRK position got called away.

As you can see the MACD is getting extended as is the RSI reaching overbought conditions. But we expect this to last for sometime with minor pullbacks and sideways movements.

 

We would lighten up on biotech stocks and health insurance companies. We believe that Obamacare is a total disaster and will very likely get repealed if the GOP takes the White house. The premiums are unaffordable and we are seeing several co-ops going out of business due to high costs and then the insured are being put into a situation with no coverage and high costs. We believe this will not end well and there will be a new wave or change in the healthcare system in this nation. The current scenario is not sustainable and is designed heavily in the favor of insurance companies and drug companies. We also think these insurance companies may have reached a peak in their earnings cycle. Our net portfolio is short tech stocks. AAPL seems to have peaked and we do not expect any major move in AAPL - we still like NFLX - as Q4 is a strong season for them.

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team

Do you buy or sell now!! Markets where are they headed for Q4 and our favorite stocks - Trucharts.com Blog week ending 10/9/2015

Trucharts.com Blog - week ending 10/09/2015

Do you buy or sell now!! Markets where are they headed for Q4 and our favorite stocks - Trucharts.com Blog week ending 10/9/2015

Well the title says it all - what do you do now that we have had this wonderful rally this week - the move (to us was expected) has been decent and we had stated the markets would move higher after the retest and elevated VIX. So now the VIX is trending down, material stocks have been up, gold has been moving up, right after the Fed announcement and energy moved higher. Markets moved higher as junk bond yields recovered from an oversold condition - be mindful - there is a very high correlation between JNK (etf) and the markets. This is the correlation related to the appetite for riskier assets - specially high yield junk bonds. Based on the charts for DIA and SPY - included here below - we expect the markets to go higher as technicals are still trending higher - see the MACD, RSI and the 200d SMA looks like where we could be headed which would be 17500 for DJIA and 2050 for the S&P500 - these would pose as high resistance for the indices and huge overhead supply. We believe this is just a bounce from an oversold condition with weakening fundamentals, remember earnings drive stock prices. But there are signs of bubbles everywhere and we would be taking profits and sell into the rallies.

Here are weekly charts for DIA and SPY:

 

Now we are heading into the earnings season for Q3 and forecasts for Q4 - we will have to see what the companies say. From FACTSET news we learned that it would be the first quarter since 2009 for back to back declining earnings quarter over quarter. In addition, FACTSET noted that forward P/E is around 15.9 vs average of 14.1 (5 year). We expect big declines in energy sector along with impact to companies earnings with global exposure due to strong dollar. Well Ms Yellen is going to make it easier by driving down the dollar with the Fed's non stop money printing and ZIRP. We have deleted the earnings calendar and estimates from our site due to very low usage. We will try to see if we can get this data from some other providers. You can check our realtime news page which has an earnings section and dates for reporting.

If you own a position in TSLA - please be mindful - this stock on weekly chart looks like it headed a lot lower and has formed a nice topping pattern. It is at a very critical juncture - the 100 week SMA. Here is the chart:

Charts for gold miners and GLD are looking good for the short term - trend is higher - good for some short term trading. See chart for GLD here - not convincing enough for me. Volume is not strong - but looks like it could go to 50w SMA around 113.

Here is a chart for BABA - we went long at 62.7 based on the buy signal from our site and will close the position soon - very likely this week. As you can see the buy signal was strong and stock is still heading higher - a very unique feature from our site. Please read DISCLAIMERS on our site and our site policies. We always strongly recommend you do your own due diligence and if have never invested in stocks - these are very speculative stocks and trading inherently is not for the risk averse. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions - our recommendations are meant for seasoned traders and experienced professionals.

Please make sure you are aware of holdings in your portfolio and the earnings reporting date - this is available in Yahoo and buy some cheap protection via puts maybe 10% below the current stock price - to limit your risk.

We were also long MO and plan to stay long - strong chart and did a breakout on this past week to a new high from a consolidation pattern.

Now on to our favorite stocks for trading this week and ones we will be taking positions in. These are the stocks we will be trading this week:

http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=VRX
http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=LLY
http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=MO
http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=YUM
http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=AAL

Please take some time reviewing these charts above and monitor these stocks. There are many others but we try to limit our choices to what we think have the highest probability of making money.

Please also take some time to review our site and do subscribe - as we said for all the services we provide, we know we offer the best value for money. We cannot survive if we do not have paying subscribers and we need your support to make the site a sustaining entity. People do not work for free and we do not get anything for free. But our users use our site entirely free and do not take advantage of what we truly offer to help you make money in stocks. 

Again your support is very critical - it is a mere $9 per month. If you cannot afford that then please do not trade stocks. You pay that much in commission and will very likely lose money also.

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team and Founder/CEO

NASDAQ,DOW and SPY where are these headed? What to do with your portfolio? Trucharts Weekly Blog

Trucharts Weekly Blog

NASDAQ,DOW and SPY where are these headed? What to do with your portfolio?

Sorry that we were unable to publish our blog last weekend due to some family commitments. Well the Fed speech impact was short lived and then volatility picked up in the past week and the biggest standout was the biotech sector which had driven up the NASDAQ to its 2000 highs and everyone on TV was still bullish on biotech sector. As much as we like some stocks in the drug sector and the biotech sector, the valuations were not justified - in addition, we were seeing heavy insider selling in many companies. Many biotech companies with no revenues were showing exponential charts and if you recall how we warned about exponential charts - these always are a bad sign of things to come. Just check out some of the high flyers in the biotech sector. We were also seeing weakening technical signals in the ETF IBB when it was hitting new highs.

Check these stocks:

www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=BLUE
www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=ICPT

www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=PBYI

and then there are many more in this sector that would move on the smallest drug news. Absolutely ridiculous. We have been saying to keep and eye on the 50 week SMA for ETF IBB (which we have been short), and sure enough once it broke the line in the sand it cascaded down and now it is a pure short. We are stil short but we are long BIS (short ETF) which closed for the first time above 50 week SMA - here is a comparison chart (IBB vs BIS). Check the BIS volume - highest ever.

We also have the chart here for the buy/sell signals for IBB on weekly chart - see below (this feature is provided to our registered/subscribed users). We think IBB is headed to around 260 - 280 range. There will be margin calls on folks who are long biotech stocks.

  



Now where do we think the markets are headed - gold moved up after Godmother Yellen spoke on Thursday that rates would rise in 2015 and markets were up in on Friday early and then pulled back later in the afternoon. We believe the institutions are moving into the comfort of consumer cyclicals, staples and high divided yielding stocks in sectors that are still strong. We are concerned that we may see dividend cuts in the stocks of oil companies - just a guess - but with oil down - there is no way these companies can sustain such high payouts. In addition, we expect massive layoffs and the oil states economies will be affected (Texas, Louisiana and others). We like NKE after their earnings report. We hav been playing with NFLX and are short FIT/GPRO (valuation too high). We expect the DOW to stay range bound 15000 - 17000 for some time here, SPY is headed to around 1750 - current price is 192.85. We would be very careful here - SPY and DIA have broken 100 week SMA. 

China slowdown has now shown up in 2 major equipment suppliers - JOY and CAT. CHina is definitely slowing down and we have to see if they are headed the way of Japan. In addition, the central banks are still running loose with money printing and it seems to be helping the top 1% only. Brazil is going to the dogs with its credit rating cut. The rates for 10 year bonds in Brazil have shot up to 16% - want buy some Brazil debt - anyone? We would stay away from these stocks. We like gold stocks - but we need to see high volume breakout - we are not there yet. We encourage to write covered calls on your positions - that is what we have done and that has protected our portfolio. The trend is down. The ony thing in favor of the indices is the RSI is oversold - but needs to consolidate. Here is weekly chart for SPY:

Check out our site features at the best subscription rates in the industry and on the web:

http://truchartscom.blogspot.com/p/why-is-trucharts.html

Good luck trading.

Stay nimble.

Trucharts Team and Founder/CEO