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March 25, 2020

Bullish tone and wild markets - making money like crazy

Bullish tone and wild markets - making money like crazy

There are now some bullish undertones in the market with the VIX which had risen to an unsustainable level was a good sign that the huge bounce was coming. It was not only obvious from the VIX but also from many technical indicators that had become extremely oversold.. Many stocks had been driven own to the 200d MAs and the machines were starting to kick in - just check stocks like AMD, NVDA and SHOP. These are amazing times to make money in both directions long and short and that is why timing matters no matter what anyone says.. You could tell from the indicators that the markets were very stretched before the huge pullback and it was a big nasty correction of around 35% and if you were keeping an eye on the stocks that had moved down, you could have made a ton of money on the short side. And this rally we saw today was very expected based on the recent price action over the last 2 days of the previous week. The markets and many stocks were bouncing of the recent lows and today these stocks moved up very nicely and this was an excellent opportunity to make a lot of MONEY.. That is why we say technicals are important to understand and use as a way to make trades. We are sticking with over night and intra-day trades and that is the most optimum way to make money. There is nothing like buy and hold and go tell that to the guy who has been holding on to XOM and CVX and WYNN and see what he says...about buy and hold strategy..

Options are another way to really enhance your returns and yet people do not want to even spend 5 minutes a day to learn basics about options and how they can boost your returns.. I feel sad for these people... Educated engineers and scientists who will delve into complex equations and designs will not spend even 30 minutes a day or even a week to figure out simple technical trading skills and learn basics about options - what a joke.... Anyway - we are recommending to go long here and the markets are down quite a bit and we think the DOW (DJIA) has to move to around 23500 and all the components of the DOW should also move up - we like every stock here except oil related stocks.. Tech stocks are a good bet for trading and we like BA - Boeing (we are long) and WDC... we closed our ROKU position but we still like it on a pullback - check out EXAS and PANW for some good trades. We like DE, CAT, ISRG...

Follow us on twitter @trucharts for our daily updates and stock picks - also check the screener on our site along with the stock charts page for real time charts, quotes and fundamental data.

We are working on a technical alerts system from our site and this should be ready soon..

Good luck trading..

Bob B.
Founder/CEO
Trucharts.com

March 16, 2020

Markets Panic amid the corona virus

Markets Panic amid the corona virus


Well, since our last post, markets have gone even further down and have pretty much wiped out the whole Trump elections gains in a matter of two weeks.  We have been warning of bubbles and valuations being absolutely out of control and now reality is starting to come into focus. We suspect margin calls are also exacerbating the selling  We were short and were long some puts and took on some longs today.. Two of our accounts was in an all cash position. 

Still there is risk and we are waiting for some of our indicators to show when buying is safe. The bottom is not in yet and you may see some wild rallies - do not buy - but only use these to unload or do intraday trading - there is lot of money to be made here.. We will see a bottom and it will be very obvious once it arrives and the pent up demand will be huge... So be ready.

if you have not taken profits in stocks that are making money like AMZN, AAPL and MSFT along with FB, NFLX - we highly recommend taking profits.. These stocks have not reached a bottom yet even with the intermediate rallies.. Check out our tweets @trucharts and check out some of the charts we post during the week. We have been short AAPL, SHOP and ROKU.. We closed our ROKU position today.. 

Again - we recommend doing intraday trading and using options to collect and get good premiums. The bottom is not in yet as much as it may appear from the oversold conditions and the VIX.. We may see a short term rally here - but use these to sell.. 

Good luck trading..

Check out our site - for excellent real time charts, quotes and fundamental data along with our excellent screener..

B. Bhatia
Founder Trucharts.com

March 7, 2020

Volatility and Markets the corona virus effect

Volatility and Markets the corona virus effect


Well what a couple of weeks its been in the markets - the volatility and point moves have been pretty staggering and unseen in the most recent times and not really since the 1999-2000 bubble and also since the GFC of 2008..all from the corona virus.. Point moves in the DOW, S&P500 along with the NASDAQ are quite a wake up call for many used to the markets that have gone up in a straight line since 2019. And yet no one was crying out that markets were in bubble territory from all valuations perspective and higher than the 1999-2000 bubble.. Yet all the analysts kept raising their target prices for already over hyped and over valued stocks. Well the virus came and fixed that - in a span of 4 or 5 trading days all the gains of 4 months were wiped out. Just check the chart below...

The market players and individual investors had become numb to any down moves and were high on everything moving up and were hypnotized by the markets - since every buying the dip was a good move - specially in the big names - the DOW stocks and the most owned stocks by the entire universe of funds - HD, MSFT, FB, GOOG, and you can easily name the whole list.. 

As you can see the markets look oversold and may have some consolidation at this level - around 25000 for the DOW and around 280 for the S&P500. The QQQ (or NASDAQ even though looking oversold - may head lower - we think there is short term risk to stocks like AAPL, MSFT, AMZN and FB - the big movers for the past few months. AAPL definitely moves lower to around 240.. We recommend taking some profits in these big names.

Here are the charts for AAPL, AMZN, FB and MSFT. 
FB looks the weakest...











The DIA chart here is showing resistance at 270 so we should expect a bounce to that level  (around 27000 for the DOW). 
Although the markets have been volatile - it is a great time to make money.. The volatility creates huge opportunities to make money with intraday or overnight trades with the right stocks. Many stocks are moving over $10+ a day and that is a huge bonus to make money. It is easy to find these stocks and these are very standard big names like AMZN, MA, V, SHOP, ADBE, NFLX and many more. We recommend more day trading rather than holding overnight positions.

We really like gold and you can check our tweets and blogs and our call on gold since it has been at 1100 and now has had a move to around 1700 a move of around 40%+.. We still like gold and are long physical bullion and buying more... Our target is 2500 as fiat currencies are failing and in the end there will be some reset as the debts are unsustainable as are the promises being made by governments. We expect INR (Indian rupee to head to 80 per dollar..)

Good luck trading and do subscribe to our site - it is a measly 180 per year (premium) and 95/year for basic membership to excellent REAL TIME CHARTS, QUOTES, FUNDAMENTAL DATA, excellent scanner (screener) along with buy/sell strategy signals - we are working on sending technical alerts via sms/email...and many other features... 

Sincerely
Bob B (Founder Trucharts.com)


February 6, 2020

After a long time and another crazy market


Crazy markets and bubbles in process:

It has been quite some time since we wrote up our thoughts on where we are on the markets and the latest news.

We have been steadfast in our commentary that this market is a bubble which has grown bigger after Trump's election. Stocks were moving up exponentially and some still are - and we are seeing this in primarily the software companies and this sector is trading at unheard of valuations.  Majority of these stocks are trading at valuations that are reminiscent of the dotcom stocks..

Just go check the list and price/sales ratios of some of these companies - check stocks like TEAM, NOW, ZS, OKTA, SPLK, ADBE, SHOP and many others in this sector. The list is long and we will publish a table of these so you can see this crazy bubble behavior.

Take a look $TSLA - stock moves over $100 per day. Stocks like $AAPL have moved over 80% in less than a year and yet many other big cap tech names are moving in an exponential fashion. This is all a result of the Fed, PBOC, BOJ and ECB money pumping into the system - revenue growth is less than 10% - eps growth YoY is stagnant - yet stocks keep moving up.. Low interest rates and the Fed put are going to make this bubble much bigger - we expect the Dow to go to 40000 and NASDAQ to cross 10000. So for now the tagline is - Just Keep Buying - not a single Fed member has uttered the words bubble - at least Greenspan had the balls to utter the words 'irrational exuberance'. At present, we are way beyond irrational exuberance uttered words with EV/S (Enterprise value to Sales) ratio at the highest level in history along with P/S (Price to Sales) ratios of many companies at unheard of levels - just take a look at PAYC - trading at over 27 times revenue - and the Fed bobble heads - say valuations are little high - I think these guys smoke pot together in a room and get high - Yellen/Bernanke have taught Mr Jay (we cal him Jerry from Tom and Jerry) that bubbles are good and to keep pumping..the money spigot...

So if you ain't making money in this market - guess who is the monkey.. The Fed is giving a hand to everyone to make insane amount of money and if you do not see it - its your fault.. Stocks are being traded by the machines and have become insanely predictable... Go check our site in the screener section and why we run certain screens - these are to quickly identify stocks that we can trade..

Here are the links - we have a multiple technical screener and a single dynamic screener:

https://trucharts.com/drpScanner.aspx
https://trucharts.com/Scanner.aspx

The big industrial stocks are crumbling but everyone in the DOW is moving to stocks like UNH, MA, AAPL and MSFT. Stocks like CAT, DE are trading at reasonable prices - but not from a fundamentals perspective. Make a list and trade it.. hold for a day or so and then sell it.. This is not a buy and hold market. We will do a video and post it on youtube channel and publish the link in an upcoming blog post.

Here is a suggestion - look for stocks trading at RSI (Relative strength index less than 30). Or Bullish MACD crossover stocks.

We are now providing free real time quotes and charting on our site. Check it out and for a small annual fee you can get access to our technical alerts.

https://trucharts.com/StockCharts.aspx - for charts and company detailed data.

Now time to make some $$$$..

Good luck trading.


January 6, 2019

Schizophrenic markets, Fed Reserve, Powell and markets moving up, FAANG stocks

Schizophrenic markets, Fed  Reserve, Powell and markets moving up, FAANG stocks

Well the man with balls - lost them over Xmas and New Year's eve - you know who we are talking about - none other than good old Powell himself.. I guess he had a good chat with grandma Yellen and good old bubble maker Bernanke himself and suddenly had his balls chopped off for being too aggressive and making the rich poor - oh we feel for the rich!!! What a fucking joke. Markets gyrating 1000 points in a day, 700 points - guess we have to get used to these type of moves. And then we have the blabber heads on TV trying to explain these markets. And non stop talk about the Fed and their constant analysis - just annoying - it would be nice to have a channel where no one says anything. Yet have you heard anyone yet mentioning that the bubble is falling apart. Somehow the Fed roll off the balance sheet is now being questioned after the teachers of Powell (Yellen/Bernanke) made some noise on Friday and everyone was excited. Again we are coming off very oversold conditions and several stocks are bouncing of key moving averages. We like any stock here for the short term - normally all stocks in the indices will move with the move up. so the FAANG stocks are also good for the ride up. Banking stocks look strong on charts - again be mindful - we are talking about some short term moves here and these can be used to trade intra-day and for overnight positions. Obvious names come to mind - FB, GOOG, SHOP, GRUB, NFLX (which moved up and we think it is going to 300). There are many other heavily shorted stocks that also have high betas.

Here is an article worth reading:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-06/ugly-truth-you-wont-hear-fed

The AAPL news was expected - it was obvious based on the suppliers indicating that their biggest customer (as if this was a big secret) was canceling orders - so the news from AAPL should not have shocked anyone and it was also obvious when the stock started falling after the last earnings report. As expected the stocks dropped and the once darling of Wall Street lost a total of over 350B in market cap value - that is the whole market cap for FB - and we say the markets are not over-valued or expensive - this is actually happening - everyone is in equities and the ETFs do not help - we think ETFs should be banned - these distort markets and are really another way for Wall St to just make more money. How are these different from mutual funds - there is really no difference.

AAPL will need to change its approach on the next generation phones and there is nothing new on the horizon and specially this paying $1000 for a phone days are over. These companies need to start realizing that after a certain point - (same as computers) - people are not going to pay up for small feature improvements and there is a lot of competition in this space. Competitive phones are cheaper and better. A good phone should be no more than 500 - yet all these companies keep pricing themselves out of the markets. As you can see Samsung and AAPL are losing market share to Chinese competitors all around the world and we expect that prices will trend downwards as we may have reached the peak with IPHONE X.

There will be backlash as ordinary customers will stop paying these high prices being pushed onto them. This is going to be the next computer - lots of competition and prices will start to come down. There is a lot of buzz around 5G - we expect some noise around this - but it will be short lived. Prices will not be going any higher from here on forward. This means it will impact margins not just for AAPL, Samsung and others - but also their downline suppliers - they will be put under pressure on component pricing.

We would trade the markets here as earnings season is upon us - watch the man without the balls now - Powell - who changes his tune every couple of weeks. He is like a management trainee..

We are expecting to launch our new revamped site with new features and buy/sell directly from our site towards the end of Jan - slight delay to our original planned date.

Time to go and make some money.. Good luck trading.

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2019..

Trucharts team/Founder (Co-founder Jetstox.com)

December 23, 2018

The Fed, the markets and tech stocks - FAANG - NVDA and others

The Fed, the markets and tech stocks - FAANG - NVDA, FB and others


Well the Fed showed that it has balls and is not dictated by markets or politics - and this is what would be expected if they are truly independent and focused on maintaining their mandate of full employment and low inflation - the previous two Fed generals or chairman/chairwoman did a terrible injustice by not raising early enough and leading to a massive ALL asset bubble - not just in good old USA, but all over the world. We were not aware but Chairman Powell has been an investment banker and a hedge fund manager. We hope he saw that the bubble was brewing in the markets and that valuations were truly over extended to a level that matched the 2000 bubble. Along with this we have a massive debt issuance from corporates that are rated at grade "BBB" - when companies issued bonds at cheap rates and this number has ballooned to $4T (yes TRILLION) from 1.5T in 2008. Watch the FAANG stocks - these are broken..

We have provided here a link for a very good article from Mauldin economics (one of the better ones written) - 

We are down a mere 6% and everyone is panicking - imagine that - a mere 6% and apparently a growing economy (bustling as they say) - where it cannot handle a Fed funds rate of a mere 2.5% - what is wrong with a 2.5% fed funds rate - that is just 50bp over the 2% mandated inflation rate. Really - how is that our wonderful economy cannot tolerate such a normal Fed funds rate.. All the idiots on CNBC and Bloomberg - are nothing but a bunch speculators who have never experienced a bubble.   As we mentioned in our previous blog post - not a single soul has mentioned the word bubble - or how truly overvalued the markets are still - even after this pullback. We also stated that bear market rallies are fierce and vicious - so watch for many more of these in 2019 - but the trend is still down and there will be a reversion to the mean - it is called the law of nature and physics. Drumpf panicking as is Mnuchin - such morons.. Do check our comments on our last blog on how tops are marked with 3 different events.

We would like you to refer to our previous posts on stocks and why these were overvalued - stocks like NVDA, ALGN, ADBE and NOW. Check the charts we had posted and we are still recommending to sell these if you are making money. NVDA and ALGN are both down over 50% - and do you recall the analyst who upgraded the stock at 290 along with the analyst who upgraded ALGN. Well these guys still have their jobs and the stocks are down over 60%. We picked ADBE as our next big short - as it has a market cap of over 100B - for a company that does only 10B in revenue - what is that - a P/S of 10x.. Again overvalued and over hyped stock. We keep track of our key indicators and our indicators are saying there is more downside and there will be rallies on perceived good news and from oversold conditions - but these will be rallies to sell into. Here is our updated short portfolio;


We are still recommending shorting HD and LOW - the retailers will have a tough time in 2019 and this is being reflected in their stock prices - shorting Macys (M) would be a good idea here.

Again we will are in process of revamping our site - expect to launch in January - new features along with direct trading from our platform. Can't wait..

We want to wish everyone a merry Christmas and Happy New Year and wishing everyone good luck in their trading and some sound advice - to stop listening to the bozos on TV - Cramer, CNBC and Bloomberg. Too much analysis and non stop gibberish. Do your own work and analysis - it does not take that long to make sensible decisions.

Trucharts.com Founder

December 8, 2018

Our top short picks and markets

Our top short picks and markets


What a roller coaster - down 700 point and then up 700 points, we have had one of the most volatile periods since any recent memory in the markets. But we said in our last article that bear market rallies are fierce and vicious - these happen to shake out the weak, but the trend does not change - it happens to suck in those who think markets are bouncing back and going higher - this picture has been played before many a time. Basically what happens after a long period in these type of bull markets, where every dip is bought and things go back up again. The mindset of the investors and many becomes complacent and it is like becoming habituated or trained and maybe even numb to any volatility. On top of that if you add all the sound on TV, news and articles - you seem to be lulled into the fact that it is all OK and you can just keep buying - it will always go higher. We mentioned in our last post - it is like being at a party and everybody is high and drunk - no one knows what the hangover will be like. We recommend you read this article and it echoes our sentiment on housing and credit bubble:


We are witnessing people reducing prices in one of the most hyped up housing places in America - California - specially Bay Area where folks were tripping over each other to buy houses - overbidding with cash offers was a common staple.. Now we are seeing price reductions ranging from a very low percent all the way up to 40% reductions - UNHEARD OF IN Bay area - we are staying with our prediction of the coming 30% price correction in California and Bay Area.

We wanted to also show how tops in some stocks are made - this always happens when companies build monuments to their success - good examples of this in our present era are - guess - NVDA, AAPL, FB and CRM - this tells us the story in these stock is also over.. So sell these while you are making money.

If you recall we have been steadfast on our call on NVDA stock being one of the most over-hyped and over priced semiconductor stock in the history of the markets (as much as we missed the bull run in the stock) - we stayed with our call on shorting it all the way up. As we stated sometimes it requires a lot of patience - the stock was trading at the highest P/S multiple ever. Well the markets finally spoke and the stock has crashed over 50%. We think it is going to $80.. Another over-hyped stock in our short list was ALGN - what a joke - stock went from 80 to 400+ - we said short it - and as of Friday the stock has crash 50% - think about that 50% - it is now at 200. The stock was trading at a P/S multiple of 17-18 - so for every $1 in revenue - people were willing to $17 - what a fucking joke. We were long puts and made some good money.

Well we want to bring to you our next top short picks - if you make some money - at least give us some credit and subscribe to our site - here they are - LULU, HD, ADBE and NOW. ADBE is trading at a P/S of almost 14 - Market cap 114B and 8B in revenue (ridiculous); NOW trading at 17 P/S ratio - 2 B in revenue and market cap of 33.5B; HD is a call on the housing slow down - just short it - over priced - we expect their earnings are headed lower.. LULU another retail dump stock and over hyped. We have other plays but these are on the top of our list. We are still short and hold shorts on these stocks in our account except HD for now - we will swap TXN short for HD short.

We like gold as it has been holding up and cash as a holding - gold has been moving up and this is telling us that there is some event that may occur which will impact the markets - maybe Deutsche Bank (DB) - it is not clear. In addition this has been a market for traders and not investors and it will stay the same for the foreseeable future - there is money to be made for the last few weeks via via intraday trading. So stay on your toes and again - this is not an invest-able market - majority of our accounts are in cash and we published our short and short/long portfolio on our twitter handle - @trucharts.

We do not do FB - but do post on twitter our trades. One additional prediction - FB will not be a company in ten years.

We have an incredible deal coming in Jan on our site www.trucharts.com  - stay tuned..

Good luck trading.


Founder and Trucharts team





November 18, 2018

Our latest thoughts on markets, Bubbles, Housing, NVDA



Our thoughts on housing, NVDA, ALGN and bubbles:



Written on 11/01:

Housing Correction coming, Bubbles, and how we held our NVDA short for over 2 years - patience is a virtue in the markets - what stocks look vulnerable and why we think HD is going to less than 50.. Well, what we expected finally happened - fortunately we were prepared for this big move down and we think more is coming - we used our indicators to monitor and these were confirmed once the move down was triggered.  We believe this pullback and move down could last longer than anyone thinks. Bear market rallies are fierce and vicious, and these tend to fool the ones who are still hanging on to their hats, praying for the move up so they can liquidate their positions which were acquired a lot higher. Unfortunately praying and hope are not the answer. 

We have shown here our short portfolio and our long/short portfolios below..

We know that there are some impeccable indicators that clearly show we were approaching a top in the markets - here they are: AMD stock - Masayoshi investing money like it grows on trees (which we guess is partially true), and ETRADE ads on TV showing trading can make one a billionaire.. Very standard ads - we live in a world where we are easy to forget the past, and repeat the same mistakes in a different form at a later time with a different group or generation of folks.. It is called wash, rinse and repeat - the big guys know it and they play the game well. Suck in everybody - make them high and drunk - then kick them out onto the road.. Works perfectly.. been there done that.

We have been warning for several weeks now that we are experiencing one of the most massive bubbles ever - ridiculous valuations - excessive risk taking with no regard for risk. Eventually someone has to pay for all this money printing. We believe the Fed has realized there is a massive bubble in stocks and is focused on pricking the bubble. Well, they are succeeding. Not a single soul and crackhead on TV has uttered the word bubble - CNBC, Bloomberg - you name it - all these assholes come on TV acting like they are gods of the stock market - everyone of them is a pump and dump ass.. Trust us - we know this very well - when one analyst came out and pumped up NVDA - all the asses on TV said it is going higher.. It is the most expensive semiconductor stock in the world - trading at over 15 time P/S - there is ZERO justification for that and guess what my favorite top of the market indicator did - that Masayoshi idiot invested in NVDA. We had shorted it all the way up at every 20% move and then also bought the long term puts. Agreed that we missed this bull run - but sometimes you have to use your gut and sit through it - trust us - we have learned patience from markets. And this mistake will never happen again.. We know how to manage such a situation much better next time around. BTW - whatever happened to that analyst - did he get fired - nope - we know that in these firms, the firms will be short the stock, and then their analysts will come and put a buy on the stock while the firm is shorting at the same time.. It is a well known technique/practice - but will never get out to the public - well now you have it.  Another one of our favorite shorts and overhyped stock ALGN - what a joke - company does 2B in revenue and market cap was over 35B - how does this make any fucking sense.. (We are allowed to cuss in our own blog!!) - I can tell you people lost their shirts in this stock as it dropped over $80 in a week and over $170 in 4 weeks. Margin calls are running around the trading desks.. We were long ALGN puts right before earnings.

Housing in Bay area - here is our open prediction - a 30% correction is coming.. We said it and are putting it in writing.. There is a 100% stocks to housing correlation in Bay Area and once all of the stocks come back down to earth - so will housing prices - we are already witnessing price reductions of over 100K in a week for eager sellers.. Unheard of again - where people were jumping over each other to overbid and paying top price of over 200K-300K on average over asking - now there are no buyers - whoever is out buying - is going to regret it very soon.. Just a 20% reduction in price will instantly eliminate all your equity.. It is coming - wait and watch. This is the main reason we think HD stock has to go to 50.. all the days of renovation and flipping are coming to an end.. The SALT and HELOC deductions will devastate the Bay Area - watch - Trump knows it. Prices are coming down in NY, Denver, Australia, Hong Kong, Canada, UAE and India.

We are short and stay short NVDA, ALGN, NOW and many more overhyped and overpriced stocks. We will buy when there is blood on the streets.. It is unfortunate that many people will end up losing (wise ones will sell and take their profits) while all the suckers who are still drunk and high at the party will be stuck with a big shock.. It is also unfortunate that the Fed and all Central bankers have made the world (along with China) addicted to bubbles.. They have not learned that human behavior does not change just because of a single or two  incidents (2000 and 2008 crash) - people will take more risk when money is flowing like water.. No one is talking about all the pension funds, government liabilities, and many more government entities that will suffer consequences of bubble markets - it is sad and it would have been better had the Fed and central bankers had taken a more gradual slow and steady approach - we might have been in a much better position. Yet they do the same - wash , rinse and repeat.. So take profits while you are up - and do not end up crying later..

We will be announcing an amazing offer for equity trading from our site directly very soon - an unbeatable offer - that will rock your brain.. It is coming - stay tuned.. and keep checking our site..which will also be completely revamped.. 

Also check our call on Chinese Yuan to USD targets on our twitter handle @trucharts where we post our trades and our previous blogs. 

BTW - sell AMZN and we are short NFLX.

Short portfolio link on Twitter handle - (@trucharts)

      https://twitter.com/trucharts/status/1063793651552182272

Long portfolio:


Good luck trading..

Founder/CEO/Team at Trucharts.com   


October 7, 2018

Tech Stocks - Alibaba (BABA) and China/Semiconductor Stocks Updated/Fixed for fonts

Tech Stocks - Alibaba (BABA) and China/Semiconductor Stocks

First disclosure - We missed this bubble and are really upset that we missed it - made money in the last two bubbles but did not see this one even though it was staring us straight in the eyes. But this was an important lesson learned and a very expensive one at that. We missed many amazing stocks and that is what upsets us the most.. Truly disappointing..

Now back to the markets:What a run up - absolutely amazing - it was a classic up move from a huge pullback from earlier in the year. Every stock was just going up, up and up. There was no stopping the BULL train and indices hitting new highs - many stocks hitting new highs - company valuations crossing $1Trillion - bigger than the GDP of many nations put together.. Yet not one analyst or talking head or journalist (except that 1%) were willing to utter the word BUBBLE. New startups being valued at numbers that exceed the 2000 bubble, funding at levels not seen even in 2000 - Idiot Masayoshi - raising 100B funds like candy.. These are the signs of bubbles - not a single soul is scared or even concerned - margin debt at all time highs. P/S of companies at records - companies making no money being funded as they are going to make BILLIONS.. We have to say these are all signs we have seen and witnessed before and these never end nicely.. We have become addicted to bubbles and we have now perpetuated 3 within a span of 18 years - that is unheard of. Massive money printing and FOMO amongst the VCS, the investing public and machines doing the trading has led to this excess of massive proportions. There is not a single day when a company is going public - which is a sign the smart money (VCs) are cashing out - while everyone is high and drunk.. Some examples of stocks trading at ridiculous P/S - NOW - over 18x P/S; ETSY - over 14x P/S; and there are many more. The numbers of companies trading at these type of valuations is absolutely staggering. And every new company has now a valuation above $1B - it is an absolute joke - NVDA trading at over 170B market cap and P/S of over 15 for a semiconductor company - that is unheard of in the history of semi companies. Full disclosure - we are short NVDA.Here is a comment from ex CEO Scott McNealy from good old Sun Microsystems which eventually went out of business: read the words - they are actually amazing from a valuation perspective:



Anyway we can go on and on and now the 10Y Treasury is yielding over 25 bp over 3% and heading higher. Housing bubbles are cracking in many parts of the world - India, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, New York, Denver and many other locations are starting to breakdown from this incessant building of homes and apartments (flats as they are known abroad)You can only blow a bubble so big before it eventually explodes.. And the Fed and the world are all addicted to bubbles. We have huge issues with pensions all around the world - debt to GDP ratios at extremes and student loans, auto loans (with high car payments ever and highest number of payback years). Credit card debt at extremes and everyone is loaded with debt - this is unsustainable. The Indian banking system which was flush with loose money and corrupt insiders is now unraveling at a rapid pace and the INR is dropping to record lows while the markets are finally coming down. We think there may be a reset - do not know when and how - but something has to give because we have gone past the limits of what makes sense. It would have been better if the central banks had a good plan and approach to the crisis and managed it in a much slower and better fashion - but that is not what happened - they turned on the tap at full speed and now what we are experiencing is the overflow effects with no control left. It is like unleashing a monster.. If they would have taken a slow and gradual approach we would not be where we are today - staring down another bubble.. Unfortunately we want quick fixes and have been addicted to these bubble methods - which in the end always lead to busts.. This bust will last longer then anytime before and it will not be pretty. Just wanted to pen down our thoughts this week.We would sell the stocks like BABA - broken down and many tech stocks are finally breaking the 200d SMAs (some have already done so and have gone down since - look at MCHP and now we expect the same for TXN and BIDU etc.) So buy and hold works great when everything moves up in tandem but fails when things go sideways and/or start to breakdown.. We will update more next week. We are recommending short on ETSY and ROKU.

There is some exciting news coming from our site/platform - keep tuned..Good luck trading.

Founder Trucharts.com/Co-founder JETSTOX.com 

August 26, 2018

Do we keep buying or sell here..

Trucharts Blog 8/24/2018

Do we keep buying or sell here...


Such a conundrum buy or sell. Stocks keep moving up on the Nasdaq - this is very reminiscent of the 2000 bubble - the Dow Jones moved up first, stagnated and then the NASDAQ took over. We are seeing so much froth - in all stocks and at prices that are exhibiting absolute bubble characteristics. But yet stocks keep moving up - and we believe this may be driven by FOMO and central banks seeing the US economy as strong and buying stocks - think about that central banks buying stocks. Never has that happened in the history and ever since central banks have been in existence - money printing has become the norm and no longer an exception. Risk metrics are being thrown out the window and the predictions are getting frothier each day as if there will be no event that will kill this bull market. Valuations for all metrics are at the highest ever and yet there is not a sign of even a single bear on TV. Just run a check on price to book and price to sales along with PE screeners and you will see what we see as the most frothiest market ever. Every deal is getting funded and VCs are raising funds at an unprecedented levels. Everyone is an investing genius when all assets are moving up.. Very typical behavior at the top of bull markets.. You can never call a top until all leading stocks start breaking down.


Anyway - that was a short treatise on our thoughts as to where we are in this stage of the longest bull market in history. We are witnessing one of the biggest bubbles - and we do not know when or how this will end. In this market a $10B market capitalization is considered to be very low. Companies like VEEV, NOW, ALGN, and many others have revenues of no more than $2.2B but their market caps exceed over $78B - total annual revenue for these companies - $4.7B - so the multiple is - 16.59 - so for every dollar in revenue - people are willing to pay $16.59 - hmm - and the Fed says there is no bubble or folks come on TV and say - it is all great - bubbles are made this way.. 


On another note - marijuana stocks CGC and TLRY are trading at P/S of over 150 - so people are paying $150 per ever $1 of revenue - TOTAL MADNESS.


But these thoughts aside, we know this is an excellent market for trading and making money on a short term basis and also by the use of options or intra day or even from day to day trading. We are seeing machines doing a lot of the trading based on very elemental trading signals and this tells us that fundamentals do not matter - no matter what anyone is saying - there is froth, technical trading and money is being made at a frantic pace..


Using options or put spreads for stocks that are moving sideways or are in an uptrend is a very good way to generate income on your portfolio - candidates for these type of spreads would be CAT, DE, EA, IBM, ATVI, MNST, QCOM, INTC


No charts this week but checkout some new features on our site like our dynamic screener at with multiple options for screening:

http://www.trucharts.com/drpScanner.aspx

Our single variable scanner at:
http://trucharts.com/Scanner.aspx

We are planning to go long BIDU, EA, QCOM and INTC. We are heading into the AAPL announcement in September so you can be long stocks supplying to AAPL - like IDTI, INTC and others.

Good luck trading - check out our buy/sell signals on our page http://trucharts.com/Stockcharts.aspx

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Good luck trading.

Trucharts Founder