Greece Referendum - How will markets react this week? Trucharts.com Blog - week ending 6/26

Greece Referendum - How will markets react this week? Trucharts.com Blog - week ending 6/26

Well looks like our call on the weakness in the underlying fundamentals of the markets are finally coming to fruition. Earnings from ORCL (ORCL chart), Micron (MU Chart) were pointing to a slowdown in the tech sector - which we alluded to in our blog. 

We stated to take profits and hedge your positions with covered calls or puts a month out for a strike price 5% to 10% below the current prices, for some protection to the down side. INTC - chart below (weekly):

As you may have read in the news INTC is planning layoffs and with the MU news of slowdown in the PC sector we expect that INTC will very likely state the same. The ALTR buyout was primarily to fill their old fabs and they paid a hefty price for ALTR. Seems like a sign of desperation. We will be shorting INTC tomorrow.

Then this weekend we have the news from Greece calling for a referendum. We think the Greek leaders are doing the right thing and letting the people of Greece decide the fate of the country. The creditors are not happy but the choice of cutting back benefits/pensions significantly and hurting the people of Greece is not to be left in the hands of the a few politicians and the Germans. We will have to wait and see how Greece exits the Eurozone - we think they may have already made that decision.

We expect volatility in the markets this week - we alluded to the topping nature of the markets for the past few weeks and how the weakness in the individual DOW component stocks, transportation stocks as a sign of topping behavior. Here is the chart for SPY and DIA (weekly) - notice the weakening technicals (RSI, Moving Averages and MACD) - SPY has not closed below it's 13 week SMA - Chaikin Money Flow is still positive - the next two to three weeks are critical and we have to see if the SPY can hold or bounce of the 50 week SMA. We also stated how the markets have been playing the round number games with the Dow Jones 18000 level, SP500 2100 level and 5000 for the NASDAQ for the past 6 weeks with three digit moves every week.

SPY Chart:                                                            DIA Chart:

SPY support at 208 and DIA support at 177. Here are the daily charts - keep an eye on the moving average support lines:

 

What to do this week:

1. It is going to be a shortened trading week very likely with low volumes going into     
    the weekend because     of the 4th of July weekend.

2. Sell some covered calls and buy some protection - we are heading into earnings      
    season.

3. Take some profits as we stated earlier - nobody is going to complain or regret 
    locking in some profits.

4. Watch critical support levels for your stocks - you can do this easily with our charts 
     support resistance option on the stock charts page.

Our positions: Long BIDU, CYBR, Z, - short INTC/AMBA. All positions hedged with calls and puts.

On another note here is the chart for IBB ETF (Biotech stocks) - just see it's support level at the 13 week SMA - unbelievable.

We added new features to our site - a quick chart box on the home page and a new chart skin color scheme on the stock charts page - check these out - nice new features to have. The charts we are showing are with the new color scheme.







Some articles for good reading:

http://techcrunch.com/2015/06/26/the-tech-industry-is-in-denial-but-the-bubble-is-about-to-burst/

http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-is-a-petri-dish-2015-6

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/27/business/international/chinese-stock-indexes-plunge.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-27/bad-breadth-milestone-warning-stocks

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-27/chinas-370-billion-margin-call

http://www.econmatters.com/2015/06/chinese-stocks-how-to-think-like.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-27/desperate-china-cuts-key-policy-rates-after-stock-market-crash-its-just-1987

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/risky-buyers-making-comeback-housing-233326345.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-28/ecb-says-greek-bank-holiday-now-necessary

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-27/moodys-fitch-fret-over-billions-student-loan-abs-defaults-loom