Markets update Aug 8th - How we made 40% on AMD in 20% on MTCH in a week.. and 40% on NVAX..

Markets update week ending Aug 8 and what stocks to watch for next week

In the video this week we discuss the following - check it out and watch the whole video - you will see how to make money...

1.Site features and what we offer (voice issue (video), real time quotes and charts, self funded, subscribe, database update and screener)

2.Markets update for the past week – DIA,QQQ,SPY,SSO

3.Multiple stock charts

4.How we traded and made a 40% return on AMD, over 20% on MTCH and over 30% on

   NVAX

5.Bank stocks, ETF page, Reports page (Dow 30), CAT,DE,DIS,JNJ,FDX,UPS (gap ups)

6.Moving average examples and breakouts for OLED, BYND, ANET, FVRR, NFLX, AAPL, FB

7.Our favorite stock Z (Zillow group) and how we close to doubled our money

8.Backtest feature

9.Heatmap issue and fix, update

10.Software or SAAS stocks CRWD,ZS,COUP,OKTA and MACD patterns

11.Contact us – truchartscom@gmail.com

12.Follow us on twitter - @trucharts

Video:

Markets update for week of Jul 27 - Jul 31 and picks for next week..

Check out our video for this week:

In this video we discuss overall markets update, NASDAQ and why we had traded AMD stock and made over 40%. We also discuss AAPL, FB, MTCH, CAT, DE, PINS,JPM, casino stocks and why and how critical support prices are used using moving averages. We also show how to use "gap ups" in the screener to find stocks that are poised to move higher and why volume is an important characteristic. We show which stocks we are going to buy next week and how you could have made a very good return if you had traded AMD as we had picked it. So please do subscribe to our youtube channel and also to our site - you could have paid for the site subscription many times over just with the profits from AMD. Good luck trading and leave us your comments, questions or email us. Follow us on twitter @trucharts.

Trucharts.com market udpate Jul 25. AMD, WYNN, LVS, INTC, QQQ, AAPL, MS...

Trucharts.com markets update Jul 12 and stocks to buy for next week. ROKU...

Day trading at extremes and the fastest market bounce back

Day trading at extremes and the fastest market bounce back

Here we are - after being in the shortest bear market ever and the Fed unleashing the biggest money printing spree ever known in history, the markets responded and we recovered from the lows to climb back in the most ferocious fashion.. 

We bounced over 8K points in the DOW and crossed an all time high for the NASDAQ with everyone joining the bandwagon buying left and right - and the biggest short squeeze driving valuations and PE ratios one cannot even fathom..much less explain.. Analysts falling head our foot raising their price targets with no regard to the outcome or their actions... No justifications for their actions..Wow - sounds like the 1999-2000 bubble.. For companies to trade at 10x revenue is now considered to be cheap.... Then we have our wonderful day traders who proclaim they have found the holy grail to making billions and chastising greats like Buffet - you know who we are talking about.. 

These are crazy times with the Fed backing everything - we printed over $2T in a matter of 2 months and it took the US over 200 years to get to that number in debt... Think about it for a second.. We are going to kill the dollar and have severe inflation in the future - and the only safety is owning gold or precious metals. We stand steadfast in our belief that gold will rally to 3000 after the longest consolidation..

Tech stocks like AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, FB, MSFT - the FAANGS are trading at valuations in the TRILLIONS... These valuations rival GDP of several nations combined.... And yet not one analyst comes and says - hey we are in a bubble - those words are uttered by the smallest minority.. What we are seeing will leave the tulip bubble in the dust.. 

This is not over yet and we expect this to move much higher.. Our targets are still in place for DOW to get to 40000 by next year and 4000 for SP500.. Tech stocks will trade at numbers that will be dizzying... So keep buying - we are seeing breakouts even when the economy is not doing well from a consumer perspective... With so many unemployed and so many jobs lost, businesses shutting down - the Fed has basically backstopped the rich and are on the path to making them richer... This will drive housing prices higher and create another bubble in that sector... Long housing stocks.

Again - we recommend these stocks with caution knowing that the trend is still higher...

ZM         - chart here - https://trucharts.com/stockcharts.aspx?TICK=ZM    

PTON     - chart here - https://trucharts.com/stockcharts.aspx?TICK=PTON

BYND    - chart here - https://trucharts.com/stockcharts.aspx?TICK=BYND

NVDA     - chart here - https://trucharts.com/stockcharts.aspx?TICK=NVDA 

Be mindful of stops = only risk money you can afford to lose - day trading is still working well and is very profitable. Along with use of options - the returns are even better.. Use small leverage - no more than 2:1 but keep close stops and watch the charts. 

We are enhancing our site and provide real time quotes and will be adding trading soon.. Keep an eye out as you will have access to our site once you trade through our site zero commission trades, along with unlimited options trading for $30 per month.. Our buy/sell strategies are excellent and work well. But be mindful, these are technical signals only and are not driven by news etc..

Good luck trading.. We will post some new videos soon on how to use our screeners to find stocks.

Trucharts Founder

Bob

Markets - Up and Down - What to do now - BUY or SELL?

Markets - Up and Down - What to do now - BUY or SELL?

Happy Labor day to all.

Well what do we think of the markets here and the direction. We stated in several blogs that markets were exhibiting topping action and we told our readers to take profits, sell rallies and reduce exposure or go short the semiconductor and biotech sector. We have been following this advice in our own portfolio. We have been net short since late June.

Markets have been bouncing from the recent crash and everyone was getting excited. This tells us that the people are still not scared enough and the folks on CNBS (got this of the web and I love it) are still very bullish in light of the market action. The VIX is still elevated and the ISEE call put ratio is still biased towards more put buying - we have not seen such a long string of the ISEE C/P ratio trend towards put buying. Markets dropped on Friday heading into the Labor day weekend. 

Major ETFs reflecting the DOW (ETF: DIA) and others have closed below their respective 100 week SMA. This is definitely not a good sign. We think the markets are headed lower to the 200d weekly SMA and maybe to the next support of 15000 for the DOW. We still recommend lightning up on your positions and take profits in any rally. Companies earnings forecasts are not strong and many are even lower than consensus forecasts. Just take a look at DE. JOY and the semi companies. Stocks are driven by earnings and stocks with their downward movements are indicating lower earnings coming in the future. Corporate buybacks and earnings number rigging along with Fed liquidity was what was driving the markets. You can expect short term rallies due to oversold conditions - but the trend is still down and we would wait before going net long. Insiders have been selling stocks at a rapid pace and they were doing so when the markets were topping - Major insiders in the biotech sector and semi sector dumped a lot of stock at the peak - this tells us that they got extremely rich and do not anticipate any higher prices - the markets were priced to perfection and the markets had gone up without even a 10% correction for over 3 years. We have shown some of charts below.

This past weekend the finance minister for China said that the China stock bubble had burst and this tells us that the Chinese government reactions and intervention in their stock markets is not working - and guess what happens - the Chinese citizens promptly move their money into real estate - the cycle never ends. We will have to wait and see how all the events play out in China. 

China is definitely slowing down and this is the world's second largest economy. They are mired in over capacity and nit driven by internal consumption. We think this is impacting the world economy and the commodity complex as China is the biggest consumer of the commodities.

Housing prices are again up in the US and heading into another bubble and we think this is definitely in the back of the Fed's thought process and with unemployment hitting the 5.1% well within the target range of full employment for the Fed - we think there is going to be pressure on the Fed to raise the Fed Funds rate. We have now the highest rate of employment participation (that means majority of the employable folks have stopped looking for a job).

From a stock perspective - we would not go long any of the semi stocks - we like SLAB possibly - but be mindful - you can take a position if you do not mind averaging down. We would hedge all our positions by selling covered calls and or you can sell puts if you want to own a stock. Now for shorts (be mindful we do not recommend shorting for amateurs - this is for experienced folks) - we still think IBB offers the best shorting opportunity here along with AMBA stock. We are short IBB and AMBA (since 115). Even though some of the indicators are oversold on a daily basis, the weekly indicators are not oversold yet.

We recommend watching this documentary (on youtube) on how OIL controls the world and how the "SEVEN SISTERS" control the world's oil: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtYOjMmEMeg - it is called the 'Secret of SEVEN SISTERS' - unbelievable. 

Check out our buy/sell strategies automated on your portfolio to see if your stock is still a buy or sell signal - try this on weekly and daily chart. Use the Stock charts page to check this. 

As we said last week - we are self funded and would like to get more subscribers so we can look for an investor to help us take the site to the next level - we would like to ask our readers and users to subscribe - it is a measly $9 or $15 per month to get the best feature set on the web and we know this since our returning user base is engaged on our site for more than 12 minutes a session. We use very minimal budget for marketing - we use our funds primarily for development, paying salaries to our developers, and servers, news/data feeds. 

Here is the link to the subscription service page: http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx 

Here are the weekly charts along with our trendlines drawn:

 

 

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team/Founder/CEO

Greece Referendum - How will markets react this week? Trucharts.com Blog - week ending 6/26

Greece Referendum - How will markets react this week? Trucharts.com Blog - week ending 6/26

Well looks like our call on the weakness in the underlying fundamentals of the markets are finally coming to fruition. Earnings from ORCL (ORCL chart), Micron (MU Chart) were pointing to a slowdown in the tech sector - which we alluded to in our blog. 

We stated to take profits and hedge your positions with covered calls or puts a month out for a strike price 5% to 10% below the current prices, for some protection to the down side. INTC - chart below (weekly):

As you may have read in the news INTC is planning layoffs and with the MU news of slowdown in the PC sector we expect that INTC will very likely state the same. The ALTR buyout was primarily to fill their old fabs and they paid a hefty price for ALTR. Seems like a sign of desperation. We will be shorting INTC tomorrow.

Then this weekend we have the news from Greece calling for a referendum. We think the Greek leaders are doing the right thing and letting the people of Greece decide the fate of the country. The creditors are not happy but the choice of cutting back benefits/pensions significantly and hurting the people of Greece is not to be left in the hands of the a few politicians and the Germans. We will have to wait and see how Greece exits the Eurozone - we think they may have already made that decision.

We expect volatility in the markets this week - we alluded to the topping nature of the markets for the past few weeks and how the weakness in the individual DOW component stocks, transportation stocks as a sign of topping behavior. Here is the chart for SPY and DIA (weekly) - notice the weakening technicals (RSI, Moving Averages and MACD) - SPY has not closed below it's 13 week SMA - Chaikin Money Flow is still positive - the next two to three weeks are critical and we have to see if the SPY can hold or bounce of the 50 week SMA. We also stated how the markets have been playing the round number games with the Dow Jones 18000 level, SP500 2100 level and 5000 for the NASDAQ for the past 6 weeks with three digit moves every week.

SPY Chart:                                                            DIA Chart:

SPY support at 208 and DIA support at 177. Here are the daily charts - keep an eye on the moving average support lines:

 

What to do this week:

1. It is going to be a shortened trading week very likely with low volumes going into     
    the weekend because     of the 4th of July weekend.

2. Sell some covered calls and buy some protection - we are heading into earnings      
    season.

3. Take some profits as we stated earlier - nobody is going to complain or regret 
    locking in some profits.

4. Watch critical support levels for your stocks - you can do this easily with our charts 
     support resistance option on the stock charts page.

Our positions: Long BIDU, CYBR, Z, - short INTC/AMBA. All positions hedged with calls and puts.

On another note here is the chart for IBB ETF (Biotech stocks) - just see it's support level at the 13 week SMA - unbelievable.

We added new features to our site - a quick chart box on the home page and a new chart skin color scheme on the stock charts page - check these out - nice new features to have. The charts we are showing are with the new color scheme.







Some articles for good reading:

http://techcrunch.com/2015/06/26/the-tech-industry-is-in-denial-but-the-bubble-is-about-to-burst/

http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-is-a-petri-dish-2015-6

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/27/business/international/chinese-stock-indexes-plunge.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-27/bad-breadth-milestone-warning-stocks

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-27/chinas-370-billion-margin-call

http://www.econmatters.com/2015/06/chinese-stocks-how-to-think-like.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-27/desperate-china-cuts-key-policy-rates-after-stock-market-crash-its-just-1987

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/risky-buyers-making-comeback-housing-233326345.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-28/ecb-says-greek-bank-holiday-now-necessary

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-27/moodys-fitch-fret-over-billions-student-loan-abs-defaults-loom

Watch these charts closely this week..

Trucharts.com Blog Week ending 6/12/2015:

Watch these things and charts closely this week..

We did not have a chance to write a complete weekly blog last week due to some family emergencies. Finally got over these and now back to writing and watching and trading the markets this week. 

We are sure you must have been noticing the past few weeks how the big market players have been holding the DOW at 18000, SP500 at 2100 and the NASDAQ at 5000 - rigging - you have to wonder. Every week (for the past six weeks), there has been at least one day a week for a positive 3 digit move in the markets and then we have several - what we call - consolidation days - and then we have had news on Greece everyday impacting the moves in the indices. It is becoming like a same story different day.. Still there has been no resolution on the Greece situation, and then we are seeing some news today that the Greeks have not come forth with a solution that pleases the IMF and the Eurozone. Let us see how this unfolds.

Now back to our markets and China - an amazing bubble brewing there in the markets. A billionaire is made everyday and the three drop out due to improper financial conduct by their respective companies - just take a look at Hanergy as an example. 

We think the underlying fundamentals are weak and many stocks are exhibiting weak technicals, and in addition, we think the tech stocks are looking weak. We strongly recommend taking profits in this sector.

Here are some charts from our markets we are watching closely this week. Keep an eye on the 13 week SMA, the 50 week SMA and the 100 week SMA. Amazing support levels for all the ETFs below.

Charts Weekly: 

Check the chart for:

CVX at critical support - we think this could go to 90.
DIA going to 50 week SMA?
IBB at 13 week SMA - still looking good - still not closing below 13 week SMA.
IWM - Russell 2000 ETF - still strong
MMM - heading to 50 week SMA - should be a good buy point for a bounce
SPY- at week SMA - great support here.
TXN - at 50 week SMA - looking weak - may bounce here
XLK ETF - technology starting to show weakness. (See INTC chart below)

 

 

 

 

 

We are long BIDU,CYBR,TWTR,Z, and short AEM,AMBA. Closed DTEA, LLY and UA this week for a good profit.  

IPOs to watch this week: Fitbit - Wednesday - FIT.

Critical earnings this week:

Adobe Systems (ADBE), FedEx FDX, Oracle (ORCL), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Kroger (KR), CarMax (KMX), and KB Home (KBH), DTEA on Tuesday.

Check out our special subscription offer - just $90 for the whole year. The best deal of any technical and stock charting website on the web. Here is the link: 
http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx

Check out the results of our backtest feature - the fastest on the web: This is for IBB ETF with a 8 SMA crosses 12 SMA and exit is 11 days after crossover - the short needs to be optimized - but the long strategy shows a 174% return.

Where are the markets headed - UP or DOWN?

Trucharts.com - Blog Update - Week ending 5/15/2015

Where are the markets headed - up or down??

We were unable to publish our blog for week ending 5/8 as we were in China due to blogging restrictions. We are going to summarize the market events for the last two weeks and provide our outlook for the coming weeks and thoughts on some trading.

Well we noticed a pattern during the past two weeks - markets would be sluggish during the early part of the week and then ramp into the end of week trading - week of 5/8 we had a huge move on Friday and last week the big move occured on Thursday. Bonds which have been crushed for the past few months (see TBT chart below) bounced back and it is currently oversold and we expect TBT to move up to its 50d SMA. This will lead to a drop in yields in the coming weeks and interest sensitive stocks should move higher - housing stocks like DHI and LEN to move higher. Markets moved higher on Thursday due to the lower retail number print and the jobless claims number. The markets are totally schizoprehnic - every data point is like a tug of war between the bulls and the bears - but we think the bulls are winning.

The indices like S&P500 brokeout to a new high last week and we expect the move higher. Check the charts below for DIA, SPY, SVXY and TNA. With the Fed pumping money into the economy and staying on the sidelines with the low or ZIRP will drive stocks higher. The Fed is stuck in a corner and we have been saying this for weeks. There is internal strife within the Fed governors and there is lot of jawboning going on the interest rate hike front. This is creating a stable trading environment in stocks - we especially like the drug stocks and stocks with weekly option expirations. The NASDAQ moves are being dictated by the biotech stocks. We expect the biotech ETFs to move higher here - these have still not closed below the 13 week SMA.

Our USO position closed on Friday, we are looking to go long BIDU,TWTR. Oil did bounce back and is back at being above $60. Gold rallied and we expect a pullback. The Greece situation has been nothing but noise. Eurozone economies did well due to the pullback in the Euro, but the markets saw a pullback last week. China is in a bubble and will not end until everyone is loaded up - there is a billionaire being made every week - reminds us of the 2000 Nasdaq tech bubble. 

We are still long MO,DNKN,BIDU and we will close our BOX position this week.

ISEE C/P ratio hit a new 52 week high on Thursday - it recorded a reading of 228 and that means over 2.2 calls were being bought for every put. This typically points to a higher market. Hedges are cheap now as volatility is low and we recommend buying some SPY puts and or puts for your positions at 10% below for 30d out timeframe.

Checkout our backtest article we posted last week for our site and also check out excellent subscription rates for full access and it is currently discounted at 50% for one year access - here is the link - http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx and we would really appreciate if you can spread the word for our site - and create a buzz - we know we have one of the best stock charting sites on the web. We have updated our home page and are still adding features daily. Check these out and send us your feedback - support@trucharts.com - your feedback is so critical to help us improve our user experience. 

Closed EEM short.

Here are some articles for some good reading this week. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-16/what-goldman-telling-its-clients-sell-may-and-dont-come-back-one-year

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-16/one-gauge-investor-sentiment-just-hit-6-year-high

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-17/presenting-77-billion-p2p-bubble

Here are the charts we are watching this week:

 

 

 


Good luck trading. 

Trucharts Team

What will markets do this week? Semi Stocks, and which stocks are on our buy list

Trucharts.com Blog - What will the markets do this week - and which stocks are on our buy list?

Where are the markets headed this week? The markets exhibited volatile behavior this past week. The DOW and the SP500 ended below their respective 50d moving averages. The markets closing below the 50d SMA is a sign of weakness and with the upcoming earnings season, it would be wise to take some profits here and wait to take positions after earnings season is over. The NASDAQ held up due to the biotech bounce and the semi stocks on Friday due to takeover talk of ALTR by Intel (INTC). We expect the bounce to the 50d moving averages for the DOW and the S&P. See the charts here below for the DOW and the S&P.

In the commodity complex, gold had rallied hard due to the conflict in the Middle East and the Eurozone uncertainty with Greece. Oil moved up and then pulled back Friday after Yemen was bombed by Saudi Arabia. We think this conflict and Eurozone uncertainty will keep oil and gold volatile in the coming weeks. We think the risks in stocks is growing and we also showed a chart of the margin debt in China used for trading and buying stocks on margin - here it is again:

The Fed indicated that rates will start rising gradually from September - we believe this is coming and the markets are starting to get ready for rates to move higher. Here is an excerpt from the weekly Mauldin Economics newsletter (you can subscribe at Mauldin Economics) - an excellent writer: We call it the world on a debt binge thanks to the Fed:

Quoted as is from 'Thoughts from the Frontline' by John Mauldin
Begin Quote

This report was underscored by a rather alarming, academically oriented paper from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), “Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage.” Long story short, emerging markets have borrowed $9 trillion in dollar-denominated debt, up from $2 trillion a mere 14 years ago. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard did an excellent and thoroughly readable review of the paper a few weeks ago for theTelegraph, summing up its import:

Sitting on the desks of central bank governors and regulators across the world is a scholarly report that spells out the vertiginous scale of global debt in US dollars, and gently hints at the horrors in store as the US Federal Reserve turns off the liquidity spigot….

“It shows how the Fed's zero rates and quantitative easing flooded the emerging world with dollar liquidity in the boom years, overwhelming all defences. This abundance enticed Asian and Latin American companies to borrow like never before in dollars – at real rates near 1pc – storing up a reckoning for the day when the US monetary cycle should turn, as it is now doing with a vengeance.”

End Quote

There were some interesting picks we made this week:

1. SNDK short - staying short (company forecast lower revenue for the current qtr) - 
2. TWTR long and still long - looking to add to our position - we like TWTR and believe that they are ready to ramp their revenue model via ads (like facebook). The weekly chart for TWTR looks good (TWTR chart). 
3. Took a position in BIDU at 205 and are still long with a buy-write strategy. 
4. Additional positions we have are short AEM, long USO. 
5. Position in LLY was called away due to covered calls.

We wrote an article on IBB this week and showed that the weekly chart showed very good support at the 13 week and its 50 week average - here is the chart: We expect a pullback in IBB to the 13 week and if it closes below the 13 week, we expect a test of the 50 weeks SMA. Here is the chart:

Good luck trading.
Trucharts.com team

Markets falling falling - Market Update 3/25/2015

Markets falling falling - and Biotech crashing:

UPDATE: This link just added:

Free Charts for Stocks at Trucharts.com and more: 

Please read this excellent article on market valuation: 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-are-overpriced-overleveraged-headed-for-trouble-2015-03-25?siteid=yhoof2&cb=logged0.5530515506397933

So the biotechs are coming down. TWTR was downgraded today - we had sold covered calls. In our weekend blog we talked about weakening technicals in spite of new highs and the extended stocks like AVGO,NXPI and SWKS - tech stocks look weak heading into earnings season - short MSFT.

Also check out BIDU (down today) - covered call written. Our call on shorting SCO looking good. TJX holding, LLY down but still a hold. Z (down) - hedged with covered call. USO up today.

Short APOL.

Chart here: www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=APOL 
(Stock is going to 0).

Shorting AMKR end of day:

Stocks of Interest - and Covered Call Strategy with 12% return - Market closing 3/11/2015

Trucharts.com - Markets Update and Stocks of Interest and Covered Call Strategy for BIDU

Markets were in an oscillation mode today and we had several negative and positive readings. But at the end of the day - markets ended down. We shorted UAL today - even though it was up today - our position in BOX stock is doing well (we write covered calls and / or covered puts on our longs/shorts) as needed based on market conditions.

We still expect SP to test 2025 and the Euro to go below par to the USD - our target is 0.90 - 0.95 - currently it is at 1.056 approximately.

We are short AEM and UAL. Stocks long positions are BOX, TWTR, USO, DATA, Z. 

Looking to go long BIDU - chart here - www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=BIDU - we like the stock primarily because it looks oversold and the call premium is very good and therefore the short term returns with covered call writing will provide a good return on the investment. Be aware that this a volatile stock. 

So let us say you buy 100 shares on margin - for 2 months - margin rates vary but are around 2-4% currently.

The covered call for near the strike price of 205 for APRIL 17 2015 is around $5.00 - so you will collect 500 as premium for one month and then your cost will be around 200. Let us say on April 17th the stock is at 200 and your call expired worthless (205 strike) - you can write the 200 call for May 15th around that time should be around $7 and you collect 700. Your total investment on margin at 50% is $10000 and you collected $1200 as premium on the calls and your cost went down to around $193.  BIDU call writing makes lot of sense and therefore we are looking to do this trade.

TruCharts team