What will markets do this earnings season - trucharts.com blog weekend edition and update

What will markets do this earnings season - trucharts.com blog weekend edition and update:

Well we had the big down move and then the earnings season started - VIX was elevated and the shorts or bears were thinking they had the upper hand - but maybe it was too early and too easy. Like they say when it is too good to be true then... The bears are probably licking their wounds - it is never good to be taking hefty positions in one direction or the other upon the dawn of earnings season, and last week, we think bears were caught off guard and this bubble growing bigger last week. Stocks like NFLX and GOOG/GOOGL killed the bears moral. We think many people were short these stocks into the earnings for these companies.

ADDED: We do not like the semi sector here - there is definitely a slowdown in this sector.

Gold is dropping like a rock - we predicted around 1000/oz and that is where we are headed - this is a bad sign seeing gold dropping - long term implications are not good - but this can be expected since markets are going up and the sentiment is in favor of the markets going up. The scenario is playing out like the 1999-2000 bubble - where stocks kept going up - real estate was going up (like now) and people stopped taking the refuge in gold and gold dropped to $200/oz and then rallied into 2008-2009 to 1900 per oz. We think we should wait on gold to bottom out and the markets topping action to complete its cycle. The bears have not thrown in the towel yet and the NASDAQ is now leading the markets - sounds like 1999-2000 - well a repeat is here. 

How can we forget about Greece - well the government and the leaders caved in and we know that the finance minister resigned because Tsipras was going break his own word. Now Greece maybe saved and the Germans averted their egotistical Euro but we think this is not the end - with many other countries to follow.. Sell out Tsipras.. 

Fed will raise rates this year and quickly ramp this into the new year - rents and housing are moving fast and the Fed does not want this to get out of hand..

The internet stocks are trading at ridiculous valuations - again - check the market caps of all the major movers last week - FB, GOOG and NFLX. Biotech is still moving up and the breadth in the overall markets is very weak - that means that leadership is very narrow and only a small section of the overall market stocks are moving higher. There is very good evidence of a bubble scenario here - stocks up, real estate up and the Fed is still at 0% rate. You can clearly see this in the ETF and stock charts below: Do you see a pattern here??  SPY bounced nicely off the 50 week SMA.

 

 

 

 

Looks like the bubble is still intact.

Just check the charts for IBB,NFLX,NKE,UA,NEU and there are many others like these. YUP there is no bubble. 

Next week over 450 companies will be reporting earnings - AAPL,MSFT,IBM,MMM and many others. We think the NASDAQ is taking the lead here from the internet and biotech stocks and the biotech bubble is still not ready to burst. These are great trading vehicles. We expect the DJIA to stay range bound and the SPY to track the NASDAQ - VIX dropped to below 12 and the stocks were coming off an oversold condition and the technicals like MACD, RSI and SMAs still are pointing to a move up.

We closed our INTC short and are short AMBA,AEM and long BIDU,CYBR,WBA and V,
WBA Chart: www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=WBA 

We like BIDU here - coming off a bottom and oversold condition - earnings are on 7/23.

Check out our site and we have the best buy/sell signals on daily and weekly charts - no other site offers this feature and we will be now limiting access to paying subscribers very soon.

Good luck trading and focus on hedging your positions with options - we do that for all our positions.

Trucharts Team

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What a week - sorry, we could not post over the weekend and then we had huge market movements in China, US and then the Greek referendum. 

China markets were down over 30% and the Chinese government made or passed laws to arrest folks who were aggressively short selling, then increased margin leverage, forced brokers to plead a measly 120B Yuan to buy stocks, banned companies from selling their own stock and I am not sure when this list will end. Well in response to all these wonderful government interventions, the markets rebounded yesterday to the tune of 200 points and everyone was getting excited. We are non-believers of this rally and think it will still take its own course eventually - we believe the China growth engine is slowing due to their shadow banking and debt problems of the state owned entities. We expect the Chinese GDP growth to drop to below the 7% number and the Chinese are very concerned. We stated that the world is mired in overcapacity and China is at the root of this overcapacity. We expect a slight bounce in the markets here, but the downtrend should resume - timing not clear. When you are minting a billionaire everyday, you will eventually have more billionaires than anywhere in the world... Bubbles, bubbles and more bubbles and the Chinese government does not know how to handle bubbles - amateurs. And they have been printing money non stop - this will come to haunt them someday.

Now Greece - well the referendum passed with an overwhelming NO to the Eurozone and it is not clear what the Grexit will look like - we believe the Eurozone members Germany and France are extremely concerned about the future of the Euro zone if they allow Greect to exit - this is called dismembering - if one falls will others follow - Italy, Spain, Portugal and who else!! That is the reason the Eurozone leaders are scrambling to prevent Greece from exiting - we still expect that this is inevitable.. 

US markets - We stated in our previous blogs that the markets were exhibiting topping action and sure enough we had the markets trying to hold levels of 18000 for the DOW, 2100 for the SP500 and the 5000 level for NASDAQ. This topping action was ongoing for 4-6 weeks with 3 digit moves every other day. Eventually the markets broke down and now the earnings season is in full bloom. Markets broke 200D SMA for DOW and we are closely watching the 17700 level now as resistance and 2070 for the SP500. VIX is elevated and we have to be on our toes. 

We had earnings report from Micron, which were lower than forecast and their outlook was grim. AMD re-enforced the slowdown in the PC markets and we expect the same from the overall semi sector. We stated to go short INTC or SMH and overvalued stocks such as AMBA, SWKS, NXPI and AVGO. We believe INTC buying ALTR was a desperate move from INTC and they paid a hefty premium for this. And as did AVGO buying BRCM for a hefty premium. There is no questions there is a major slowdown in this sector and we do not expect any major driver for this sector. Overcapacity is a definite issue and the phone markets are getting severely saturated in China and India.

Some good reads from this and the past week:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-beijing-cannot-let-its-bull-market-die-2015-07-05?siteid=yhoof2

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/zeroing-empty-homes-china-throws-developers-lifeline-210739138--sector.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-04/feds-full-normalization-will-crush-casino

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-05/volatility-confusion-reign-pboc-intervenes-chinese-stocks-surge-then-tumble

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-06/tumbling-futures-rebound-after-varoufakis-resignation-most-china-stocks-drop-despite

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-05/hillary-ropes-everyday-reporters-creates-media-spectacle

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-05/china-crosses-rubicon-stock-bailout-bofa-says-pboc-risks-hurting-its-credibility

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-05/nightmare-euro-architects-coming-true-jpm-sees-grexit-base-case-split-eurogroup-comi

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-05/china-brokers-dust-off-wall-street-s-playbook-from-crash-of-1929?cmpid=yhoo

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stacey-alcorn/inside-the-tank---mr-wond_b_7726504.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-02/china-s-boom-has-world-bank-worried?cmpid=yhoo

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-04/ritholtz-s-reads-401-k-s-are-horribly-flawed

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/07/01/greedy-drugmakers-change-could-be-coming.aspx?source=ihpsitota0000001&lidx=2

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-banks-spending-even-more-than-vcs-on-future-of-finance-145337246.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-stock-market-crashing-chinese-095900183.html

We are long BIDU,CYBR with covered calls written and short INTC,SWKS,AMBA. We went long WBA today for a short term trade. 

We recommend that you hedge your positions by buying some put protection and selling some covered calls. 

Check out some new features on our site and help us spread the word - we rely on word of mouth advertising - we focus our funds on driving development of our site. 

Here are some charts for DIA, SPY, and QQQ - weekly: 

 

Keep an eye on 50 week SMA for all the above symbols - these are critical support. In addition, watch IBB to see if it closes this week below 13 week SMA - if it does - it is ripe for a short.

Best of luck trading.

Trucharts team.

Watch these charts closely this week..

Trucharts.com Blog Week ending 6/12/2015:

Watch these things and charts closely this week..

We did not have a chance to write a complete weekly blog last week due to some family emergencies. Finally got over these and now back to writing and watching and trading the markets this week. 

We are sure you must have been noticing the past few weeks how the big market players have been holding the DOW at 18000, SP500 at 2100 and the NASDAQ at 5000 - rigging - you have to wonder. Every week (for the past six weeks), there has been at least one day a week for a positive 3 digit move in the markets and then we have several - what we call - consolidation days - and then we have had news on Greece everyday impacting the moves in the indices. It is becoming like a same story different day.. Still there has been no resolution on the Greece situation, and then we are seeing some news today that the Greeks have not come forth with a solution that pleases the IMF and the Eurozone. Let us see how this unfolds.

Now back to our markets and China - an amazing bubble brewing there in the markets. A billionaire is made everyday and the three drop out due to improper financial conduct by their respective companies - just take a look at Hanergy as an example. 

We think the underlying fundamentals are weak and many stocks are exhibiting weak technicals, and in addition, we think the tech stocks are looking weak. We strongly recommend taking profits in this sector.

Here are some charts from our markets we are watching closely this week. Keep an eye on the 13 week SMA, the 50 week SMA and the 100 week SMA. Amazing support levels for all the ETFs below.

Charts Weekly: 

Check the chart for:

CVX at critical support - we think this could go to 90.
DIA going to 50 week SMA?
IBB at 13 week SMA - still looking good - still not closing below 13 week SMA.
IWM - Russell 2000 ETF - still strong
MMM - heading to 50 week SMA - should be a good buy point for a bounce
SPY- at week SMA - great support here.
TXN - at 50 week SMA - looking weak - may bounce here
XLK ETF - technology starting to show weakness. (See INTC chart below)

 

 

 

 

 

We are long BIDU,CYBR,TWTR,Z, and short AEM,AMBA. Closed DTEA, LLY and UA this week for a good profit.  

IPOs to watch this week: Fitbit - Wednesday - FIT.

Critical earnings this week:

Adobe Systems (ADBE), FedEx FDX, Oracle (ORCL), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Kroger (KR), CarMax (KMX), and KB Home (KBH), DTEA on Tuesday.

Check out our special subscription offer - just $90 for the whole year. The best deal of any technical and stock charting website on the web. Here is the link: 
http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx

Check out the results of our backtest feature - the fastest on the web: This is for IBB ETF with a 8 SMA crosses 12 SMA and exit is 11 days after crossover - the short needs to be optimized - but the long strategy shows a 174% return.

Keep an eye on these stocks and charts!!

Trucharts.com Blog Brief Update:

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Here are some stocks we like and are long and also keeping a close eye on:

Jobs reports was strong and USD is moving up and treasuries are dropping and yields are moving higher. Gold down - we are short AEM.

1. DTEA - went IPO today - we are long
2. UA - breaking out of a base - challenging NIKE
3. CYBR - we went long today
4. TIF - like it  - but closed this position
5. BIDU - love this stock 
6. QIHU - looking good for short term trade and China momentum

Charts to watch for SPY and IBB - check the 13 week SMA and 50 week SMA:

BIDU and TEVA update

Updates on our picks - Trucharts.com - 

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We had picked BIDU and TEVA yesterday - both of these are up today - BIDU is up over $3 and TEVA is up over $1.25. We expect markets to be volatile next week post Memorial day weekend. We would sell into rallies - take some profits here.

Trucharts Team

We made over 18% in three weeks? What did you trade?

Trucharts.com Blog week ending 4/24/2015

Free Stock Chart(s), Technical Screener, MACD Charts, Scanner, Real Time Stock News, Stock Patterns, Stock Quotes, Portfolio Management, Earnings Calendar and more:

Well the stock markets have been going through a nice up trend with this earnings season in full force. Stocks in many sectors were rocking and not so in some sectors. The technology semiconductor sector looks like it has topped out in earnings - check how AVGO, NXPI, TXN (reported earnings and tanked) and many others are pointing to a slowdown in this sector. We were short SMH and recommending shorting NXPI and AVGO in our last blog. We would stay short SMH.

In addition, next week we have the moment of the quarter earnings from AAPL on Monday and then TWTR on the 29th (and BIDU also). FB (Facebook) earnings did not look strong and we still do not like FB due to its valuation. Google stock moved, primarily due to short covering. AMZN was a blowout - unfortunately we think here it is expensive here - even though it may move higher. The earnings will keep going this week and you can check the earnings calendar for your stock on our stockview page in the data box and on our earnings calendar page at: Earnings Calendar.

Here is a stock we talked about shorting and looks like a great candidate for short - please always hedge your position by buying an out of the money call. We always hedge our positions. Stock is IPGP and here is the chart:

Stock is closed below 13d and 50d SMA - target would be 85 and below.




















Gold got killed last week but we think this is going to be range bound from $1100 to $1200 and we will keep a close eye on this. Some commodity stocks did well this past week - check out RS, VALE.

Markets are still trending higher - we think there is a chance for a breakout here and we have to see if there is follow through. Chinese markets are on a roll - bubble brewing but not over yet.

Now how did we make 18% - we traded TWTR stock - TWTR has been range bound between 49 and 53 and we bought the stock for 3 weeks in a row and wrote the covered calls for each of those weeks, since TWTR has weekly options. We traded 400 share blocks and our investment was $10000 and our net profit was $1800. Total return - 18%. We are still long TWTR and plan to stay long into earnings - we think TWTR is beating FB (facebook) and is growing now. We will write covered calls for next week May 1st - Friday for part of our position.  Anyway - I wil be traveling this week and will still try to publish and update the blog next weekend. Check out our site for excellent real time stock news and excellent features like mouseover charts/automated buy and sell signals for any stock which you will find on no other sites. We charge the lowest subscription fee for full access to our site. We need your support and we have been providing actual trades and the best picks for the last 6 months - all for free.

Just Keep Buying; Just Keep Buying -

Trucharts.com - Mid week markets update:

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The markets are on edging on the verge of a breakout - and looks like now we have to catch up with the bubbles in China, India and Hong Kong - money printing eventually always leads to bubbles and all the central banks do not care - under the guise of slowing economies - money printing and 0% interest rates are driving an asset and stock bubble - the central banks will never admit it, even if it is staring it right in their faces - since they are scared shit to raise rates. This has led to property bubbles and stock bubbles - no one can tell now when this will end - but when it does - watch out below - this is totally unsustainable and complacency is becoming the norm - unbelievable. Bubbles after bubbles and the only folks making money from this are the VC's who love companies with no earnings going IPO and they cash in really good. 

For now our motto is: like the fish in the NEMO movie says -  

"Just keep buying, just keep buying" (like "just keep swimming..."). 

We closed CAT today. Our SNDK short worked well and we will close position today. We like ETSY here but want to wait for a week to buy. Still long BIDU & USO (doing very well). Our MO position is also doing good and as is TWTR.

Trucharts team

What will you trade this week? We like these stocks...

Trucharts.com Blog - Updated - week ending - 4/10/2015

What will you trade this week? We like these stocks...

A hectic week and now the earnings train will come to town this week. So many earnings, and we can expect, very likely a lot of surprises and disappointments - we love Wall Street - they have been lowering the earnings estimates and then it is very likely that the company will beat the lowered estimates and everyone looks like a hero - the CEO, the analyst, CNBC and news guys love surprises. Is it going to be a train wreck or a smooth ride - what is the Q2 forecast going to be like - these are the questions we need to think about.

In the background we have the Euro dropping, oil moving higher and gold also. The European markets are ripping and now the experts are predicting if the British pound is going to drop thereby driving British stock market higher - well we are in a currency war now. The Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets are on an exponential move and we had pointed to an article on our twitter post  https://www.twitter.com/trucharts) about how housewives in China are now playing in the Chinese and Hong Kong markets. This is not about to end yet - bubbles do not end abruptly - these end when everyone on the streets, including your barber, is talking about stocks. So, still a ways to go.  

Well let us see our markets - the biotech sector bounced perfectly off its 50d SMA average, as did many of the biotech stocks. The DOW, and SP500 are exhibiting a wedge pattern, which seems to be pointing that the markets may breakout here. The NASDAQ which is primarily being driven by the biotech stocks seems to be forming a right shoulder - check the charts on our home page.

Well what will you trade this week - the tech stocks - the big industrials - check the earnings calendar on our site at: (http://www.trucharts.com/EarningsView.aspx) - additionally, we show the date on the stock charts page as shown below (see red marked box on the right corner):

We are going to close our AEM position and SNDK.

Well what stocks are we going to trade: Here are our picks - be mindful of the earnings dates:

We closed BIDU and TWTR in one account - but here are the charts we like this week:

1. www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=CAT - earnings are on 4/23 - but the chart looks 

    excellent

2. www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=TWTR - earnings are on 4/28 - we like TWTR

3. www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=XOM

4. www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=USO  - ETF - has a good chart

5. www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=LLY

We had picked MYL, TEVA, LLY, ABBV, LO, RAI and M in our last blog and all of these did very well. We still like LLY (watch earnings date).

Check out our best rates for subscribing to our site at - we offer the best feature set on the web: http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx

Best of luck trading.

Trucharts Team 

3 weeks and 15% return on one stock - how did we do it!!

Trucharts.com - covered call buy-write strategy BIDU stock - 

Free Stock Chart, Scans and best features of any stock charting site on the web:

How we made a 15% return in 3 weeks..

Our return of 15% on BIDU - bought stock at 205 - wrote weekly covered calls for two weeks $5.00 each - these expired worthless and then we wrote another covered call for this week for $5 - total credit was for $15.00 (for three weeks) and if stock gets called away Friday 4/10 we would end up making $1500 on ($10250) investment (50% margin). Awesome 15% return!! 

UPDATE : OUR STOCK CALLED AWAY ON FRIDAY APRIL 10.

Chart here: www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=BIDU

Trucharts team

How to trade this week after the bad jobs report?

Trucharts.com - Blog - Easter Weekend - Stock Charts Free - and more.

How to trade post Easter and what to expect?

We talked about the horrendous job reports we got on Friday in our last blog update - just a reminder the reports showed 126K jobs created vs the expectations of 226K. Futures dropped on the news and the USD dropped - gold rallied and then we had oil rallying this weekend with the Saudi's raising the price of oil to the Asian nations because of demand. In addition, we have the nuclear deal with Iran and then the war going on in Yemen - this is definitely going to impact the oil price volatility. Gold is up today over $12+.

The talking heads on TV are already trying to predict the Fed's move in Q3 and we still expect that the Fed will raise rates in Q3 unless the jobs report stays below 150K. With summer coming, we expect the jobs report to improve going forward. 

Futures are down this evening (DOW futures down -115) after recovering from a 200 point drop and everyone is already trying to predict whether the Fed is going to hold off on raising rates based on one jobs report (which we think is a blip) and should resume an upward trend next month. The weather did have an impact and we suspect hiring in the oil sector was down. 

We indicated that the earnings news has not been very encouraging and we expect that the forecast for the tech sector for Q2 will not be strong. With INTC and SNDK lowering revenue forecasts, we expect numbers to be coming down in the tech sector - recommend taking profits in this sector. We are looking to short TSM and SPIL.

Since we now have to wait till the next jobs report, we expect that bonds will rally here and yields will drop and this will help the utility and dividend paying stocks to shine at least for the short term, in addition to retail/housing stocks. We like the following stocks:

MO - (we are long) www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=MO
RAI - www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=RAI
LO - www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=LO
M - www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=M
PHM - www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=PHM

We are short SNDK, and long USO, BIDU, MO, TWTR. We still like TWTR and you can also check out our predefined scans report on our site at www.trucharts.com/marketreports.aspx.

Also check out our special subscription deals for complete access to our site at:
www.trucharts.com/charts_services.aspx

Good luck trading.

Trucharts Team

Markets falling falling - Market Update 3/25/2015

Markets falling falling - and Biotech crashing:

UPDATE: This link just added:

Free Charts for Stocks at Trucharts.com and more: 

Please read this excellent article on market valuation: 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-are-overpriced-overleveraged-headed-for-trouble-2015-03-25?siteid=yhoof2&cb=logged0.5530515506397933

So the biotechs are coming down. TWTR was downgraded today - we had sold covered calls. In our weekend blog we talked about weakening technicals in spite of new highs and the extended stocks like AVGO,NXPI and SWKS - tech stocks look weak heading into earnings season - short MSFT.

Also check out BIDU (down today) - covered call written. Our call on shorting SCO looking good. TJX holding, LLY down but still a hold. Z (down) - hedged with covered call. USO up today.

Short APOL.

Chart here: www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=APOL 
(Stock is going to 0).

Shorting AMKR end of day:

Stocks of Interest - and Covered Call Strategy with 12% return - Market closing 3/11/2015

Trucharts.com - Markets Update and Stocks of Interest and Covered Call Strategy for BIDU

Markets were in an oscillation mode today and we had several negative and positive readings. But at the end of the day - markets ended down. We shorted UAL today - even though it was up today - our position in BOX stock is doing well (we write covered calls and / or covered puts on our longs/shorts) as needed based on market conditions.

We still expect SP to test 2025 and the Euro to go below par to the USD - our target is 0.90 - 0.95 - currently it is at 1.056 approximately.

We are short AEM and UAL. Stocks long positions are BOX, TWTR, USO, DATA, Z. 

Looking to go long BIDU - chart here - www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=BIDU - we like the stock primarily because it looks oversold and the call premium is very good and therefore the short term returns with covered call writing will provide a good return on the investment. Be aware that this a volatile stock. 

So let us say you buy 100 shares on margin - for 2 months - margin rates vary but are around 2-4% currently.

The covered call for near the strike price of 205 for APRIL 17 2015 is around $5.00 - so you will collect 500 as premium for one month and then your cost will be around 200. Let us say on April 17th the stock is at 200 and your call expired worthless (205 strike) - you can write the 200 call for May 15th around that time should be around $7 and you collect 700. Your total investment on margin at 50% is $10000 and you collected $1200 as premium on the calls and your cost went down to around $193.  BIDU call writing makes lot of sense and therefore we are looking to do this trade.

TruCharts team