Awesom video update this week - check it out...

 

What we traded this week - WYNN,AMAT,MU,NXPI and discuss the big cap names and NVDA.

• Markets update for the past week – DIA,QQQ,SPY,SSO
• Earnings upcoming - NVDA
• Bank stocks and Dow stocks – CAT,DE,BA,JNJ,AAPL,MSFT
• ETF page
• WYNN, AMAT, MU, MTCH, NXPI
• SHOP and shorting
• Candlestick vs OHLC bars
• Software stocks
• stock Z (Zillow group)
• Backtest feature another use case
• Software or SAAS stocks CRWD,ZS,COUP,OKTA and MACD patterns
• Subscribe, database issue update and screener example
• Contact us – truchartscom@gmail.com
• Follow us on twitter - @trucharts

https://youtu.be/h9VaZFpVN7A

 

B Bhatia

Markets Update for Week of Jul 6th and stocks to buy - Check it out..

Markets and stocks updated for week of Jul 4 - Jul 11..

Also on youtube at:

https://youtu.be/kFDlyY_ghl4

Video update for Jun 27

We present a discussion on the SPY, DIA, Casino stocks, Financial/Bank stocks and present some short ideas. In addition we show a single screener feature using the MACD indicator. Check it out.

https://youtu.be/XitY2aIxf6k

After a long time and another crazy market

Crazy markets and bubbles in process:

It has been quite some time since we wrote up our thoughts on where we are on the markets and the latest news.

We have been steadfast in our commentary that this market is a bubble which has grown bigger after Trump's election. Stocks were moving up exponentially and some still are - and we are seeing this in primarily the software companies and this sector is trading at unheard of valuations.  Majority of these stocks are trading at valuations that are reminiscent of the dotcom stocks..

Just go check the list and price/sales ratios of some of these companies - check stocks like TEAM, NOW, ZS, OKTA, SPLK, ADBE, SHOP and many others in this sector. The list is long and we will publish a table of these so you can see this crazy bubble behavior.

Take a look $TSLA - stock moves over $100 per day. Stocks like $AAPL have moved over 80% in less than a year and yet many other big cap tech names are moving in an exponential fashion. This is all a result of the Fed, PBOC, BOJ and ECB money pumping into the system - revenue growth is less than 10% - eps growth YoY is stagnant - yet stocks keep moving up.. Low interest rates and the Fed put are going to make this bubble much bigger - we expect the Dow to go to 40000 and NASDAQ to cross 10000. So for now the tagline is - Just Keep Buying - not a single Fed member has uttered the words bubble - at least Greenspan had the balls to utter the words 'irrational exuberance'. At present, we are way beyond irrational exuberance uttered words with EV/S (Enterprise value to Sales) ratio at the highest level in history along with P/S (Price to Sales) ratios of many companies at unheard of levels - just take a look at PAYC - trading at over 27 times revenue - and the Fed bobble heads - say valuations are little high - I think these guys smoke pot together in a room and get high - Yellen/Bernanke have taught Mr Jay (we cal him Jerry from Tom and Jerry) that bubbles are good and to keep pumping..the money spigot...

So if you ain't making money in this market - guess who is the monkey.. The Fed is giving a hand to everyone to make insane amount of money and if you do not see it - its your fault.. Stocks are being traded by the machines and have become insanely predictable... Go check our site in the screener section and why we run certain screens - these are to quickly identify stocks that we can trade..

Here are the links - we have a multiple technical screener and a single dynamic screener:

https://trucharts.com/drpScanner.aspx
https://trucharts.com/Scanner.aspx

The big industrial stocks are crumbling but everyone in the DOW is moving to stocks like UNH, MA, AAPL and MSFT. Stocks like CAT, DE are trading at reasonable prices - but not from a fundamentals perspective. Make a list and trade it.. hold for a day or so and then sell it.. This is not a buy and hold market. We will do a video and post it on youtube channel and publish the link in an upcoming blog post.

Here is a suggestion - look for stocks trading at RSI (Relative strength index less than 30). Or Bullish MACD crossover stocks.

We are now providing free real time quotes and charting on our site. Check it out and for a small annual fee you can get access to our technical alerts.

https://trucharts.com/StockCharts.aspx - for charts and company detailed data.

Now time to make some $$$$..

Good luck trading.

Tech Stocks - Alibaba (BABA) and China/Semiconductor Stocks Updated/Fixed for fonts

Tech Stocks - Alibaba (BABA) and China/Semiconductor Stocks

First disclosure - We missed this bubble and are really upset that we missed it - made money in the last two bubbles but did not see this one even though it was staring us straight in the eyes. But this was an important lesson learned and a very expensive one at that. We missed many amazing stocks and that is what upsets us the most.. Truly disappointing..

Now back to the markets:What a run up - absolutely amazing - it was a classic up move from a huge pullback from earlier in the year. Every stock was just going up, up and up. There was no stopping the BULL train and indices hitting new highs - many stocks hitting new highs - company valuations crossing $1Trillion - bigger than the GDP of many nations put together.. Yet not one analyst or talking head or journalist (except that 1%) were willing to utter the word BUBBLE. New startups being valued at numbers that exceed the 2000 bubble, funding at levels not seen even in 2000 - Idiot Masayoshi - raising 100B funds like candy.. These are the signs of bubbles - not a single soul is scared or even concerned - margin debt at all time highs. P/S of companies at records - companies making no money being funded as they are going to make BILLIONS.. We have to say these are all signs we have seen and witnessed before and these never end nicely.. We have become addicted to bubbles and we have now perpetuated 3 within a span of 18 years - that is unheard of. Massive money printing and FOMO amongst the VCS, the investing public and machines doing the trading has led to this excess of massive proportions. There is not a single day when a company is going public - which is a sign the smart money (VCs) are cashing out - while everyone is high and drunk.. Some examples of stocks trading at ridiculous P/S - NOW - over 18x P/S; ETSY - over 14x P/S; and there are many more. The numbers of companies trading at these type of valuations is absolutely staggering. And every new company has now a valuation above $1B - it is an absolute joke - NVDA trading at over 170B market cap and P/S of over 15 for a semiconductor company - that is unheard of in the history of semi companies. Full disclosure - we are short NVDA.Here is a comment from ex CEO Scott McNealy from good old Sun Microsystems which eventually went out of business: read the words - they are actually amazing from a valuation perspective:



Anyway we can go on and on and now the 10Y Treasury is yielding over 25 bp over 3% and heading higher. Housing bubbles are cracking in many parts of the world - India, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, New York, Denver and many other locations are starting to breakdown from this incessant building of homes and apartments (flats as they are known abroad)You can only blow a bubble so big before it eventually explodes.. And the Fed and the world are all addicted to bubbles. We have huge issues with pensions all around the world - debt to GDP ratios at extremes and student loans, auto loans (with high car payments ever and highest number of payback years). Credit card debt at extremes and everyone is loaded with debt - this is unsustainable. The Indian banking system which was flush with loose money and corrupt insiders is now unraveling at a rapid pace and the INR is dropping to record lows while the markets are finally coming down. We think there may be a reset - do not know when and how - but something has to give because we have gone past the limits of what makes sense. It would have been better if the central banks had a good plan and approach to the crisis and managed it in a much slower and better fashion - but that is not what happened - they turned on the tap at full speed and now what we are experiencing is the overflow effects with no control left. It is like unleashing a monster.. If they would have taken a slow and gradual approach we would not be where we are today - staring down another bubble.. Unfortunately we want quick fixes and have been addicted to these bubble methods - which in the end always lead to busts.. This bust will last longer then anytime before and it will not be pretty. Just wanted to pen down our thoughts this week.We would sell the stocks like BABA - broken down and many tech stocks are finally breaking the 200d SMAs (some have already done so and have gone down since - look at MCHP and now we expect the same for TXN and BIDU etc.) So buy and hold works great when everything moves up in tandem but fails when things go sideways and/or start to breakdown.. We will update more next week. We are recommending short on ETSY and ROKU.

There is some exciting news coming from our site/platform - keep tuned..Good luck trading.

Founder Trucharts.com/Co-founder JETSTOX.com 

Fed testimony, Markets, Tech Stocks and Backtest feature on our site

Fed testimony, Markets, Tech Stocks and Backtest feature on our site

LATEST UPDATE: Yellen dovishness sparked huge market move and tech stocks came off oversold conditions. Revenue growth is not there - but we are in bubble mode. We like the following pair trade - Long NFLX calls, Short NVDA. VIX is at all time low and volume in markets is also low - therefore the grind higher. Keep tight trailing stops. SP500 is going to 2500 and DOW to 22000. No stopping this bubble - we like also KLAC and AMAT. BA was our top pick and we still like it.

Brief update on the markets and Yellen testimony. 

Well looks like the squirrel went back into its hole - Yellen and the central bankers are now clueless as to what to do - one moment they are hawkish and then the next two weeks they become dovish. They are so scared now to raise rates, that they have just completely given up. They talked about reigning in the monetary stimulus via draining liquidity from the system by selling their assets on their huge balance sheet of over $4T - loaded with mortgage backed securities. They want to start this in September and increase that as they go along. In addition, Grandma Yellen also indicated that she may not be raising rates (of course that would increase our debt burden) T aggressively - the markets rocked up in a straight line, dollar crashed but gold was up slightly. Basically the Fed is saying we do not care about the bubbles, asset valuations and whatever else the loose monetary policy has unleashed in asset bubbles around the world. Case in example - do you know that the Indian stock market is up over 1000% - yes 1000% - in 14 years - no one is mentioning that the Indian banks are drowning in NPLs - but yet the market is up over 1000%. PEs and company valuations in the US are at levels not seen since the 2000 and 2007 heights and moving higher. But the central banks do not care as this is making the rich richer and the goal is to make the average guy feel richer. Nasdaq is out performing and we are heading into earnings season for Q2 - we will have to wait and see how the companies manipulate their results using financial engineering and stock buybacks etc. Oil has been crashing - we had predicted that and we will have to wait and see how that plays out. Tech stocks are rocking and rolling like there is no bound to valuations and PEs - sounds like the 1999-2000 bubble times (i remember those days very distinctly). FAANG stocks are rocking and we like NFLX and AMZN. FB is breaking out and we need to watch carefully where it goes. We like BABA, QCOM, BA, CAT, LLY, AAPL and are short NVDA. Airline stocks like UAL are about to breakout and rail stocks along with defense stocks look good. Even though there may be issues with the valuations etc., these do not matter as we are in full bubble mode - in Bay area people are over bidding on houses by over 350K with multiple offers - exactly like 1999. We expect this to continue. In addition, we are not seeing any real technical weakness in the markets other retail and oil stocks. We also like EEM as merging markets are doing well.

Always put a stop limit loss of 5% to 10% below 50d SMA to limit your loss or gains in case there is a crash. Check these values on weekly charts also - like 13 week and 20 week SMA.

Also spend your time to learn how to trade options - it helps to reduce and improve your portfolio risk and return.

Do read the following: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-13/global-stocks-hit-new-all-time-high-after-dovish-yellen-strong-chinese-trade-data

There is a very unique feature on our site - call backtest and we use it for checking certain technical analysis parameters for many stocks to see which yield the best winning results. Here is an example for stock Facebook or FB and you can see one of our trading strategies generated a buy signal on 7/7 and the results showed that this was a very strong signal for FB and it yielded 7 winners and 1 losing trade. So there was a very high probability that the signal would yield to higher prices and sure enough the stock moved over $8 in 3 days to 159. See the snippet of the testing below:

It is tested over 600 trading bars and the results are amazing. We will be restricting use of this to paid subscribers only very soon and you have a chance to test it out. You can also check out our videos on youtube - links are on our site - www.trucharts.com.

Good luck trading.

Happy Post Thanksgiving Blog - Markets and where these are headed going into 2016?

Happy Post Thanksgiving Blog - Markets and where these are headed going into 2016?

Started writing the blog in Hong Kong and now continuing to write in Singapore (a truly amazing city - so clean - it is like spotless). Still writing (now from Singapore lounge - Hong Kong airport is soooo much better).. 

Schizophrenic markets controlled by Central Bank speak and driving us crazy.. Down one day and up another just because of Central Banks (specifically Draghi - he is becoming such an annoyance) - Eurzone economy sucks - just suck it up and go home. What a waste of time. Well we had two days of trading on the downside and after the stupid huge ramp on Friday, because of options expiration and Draghi speak, we still expect the markets to stay range bound due to Q4 seasonality and technically weak. Energy stocks are crashing and our theme has been consistent on the energy stocks - stay away from these and our target for oil was between 35-60 - now we are at the low end of this range - tough to say where it goes - commodity complex is crashing and I was told that folks who bought real estate in many places (folks who were in the commodity business) are trying to dump their real estate holdings to pay off debts and get liquid. The COMMODITY boom is way over.. What happens to gold?? This will be tough sledging for gold with rate hikes coming. Negative interest rates in the Eurozone - who ever thought we would have negative interest rates - these are truly amazing times and the printing binge is not ending - then Saudi Arabia just secured financing for the tallest building in the world - Who the fuck wants to live in Saudi Arabia other than the fu%$$ng Arabs in such hot weather and crappy place. Having lived in the Middle East for a long part of my life - I hated every minute of it there. Someone's ego needs to be stoked - Alwaleed Bin Talal!! Ridiculous - this country is going broke and they are worried about tallest building in the world. Such BS..These people will never learn - they are here to just stoke their stupid egos.. 

Finally able to write freely after the stupid censors and blogging restrictions, 2 days of overcoming food poisoning in China - makes you wonder how is this country going to really move into the 21st century if it blocks freedom of speech, gets away with human rights violations and yet we welcome it everywhere - sounds too hypocritical to me. But, the progress in China is unbelievable - they keep on building - i think I counted over 500 cranes (since I was bored) in the taxi from Dongguan to Shenzhen. Crazy. There is no stopping the real estate train in China - not happening..Who knows where and how this will end - but right now it keeps chugging along. Travelled to India on this trip another crazy place with so much traffic, pollution and no control - and yet people keep talking about the Indian economy growing - where - it is predominantly driven by real estate, black money and infrastructure sucks, loans are defaulting and banks keep lending. The world is going crazy with the carry trade and there is no telling what the outcome is going to be. Right now everyone is acting like a drunken sailor and there is non stop money printing going on with no end in sight. Sounds like the good old Roman empire days..Well thanksgiving was great for the markets and black Friday looked good except online buying was even stronger. Then Yellen spoke and we had two down days right after that markets bounced on Draghi speaking.

It is typically a strong part of the year for the markets so you would have to buy the dips here - in strong stocks, typically Q4 is the best performing quarters and with quite a bit of under performance this year for many funds including hedge funds, we would expect a run on stocks going into the end of the year primarily in the big names that are holding the markets up - what we call the Trojan horses - AMZN,NFLX,GOOGL,FB,BIDU,BABA, and many others in this list and also top names that are underperforming this year will be picked up just to show good or at par performance relative to the markets - so our position would be to go net long here in the big names and ULTA also fits into that list. We stated in our previous blogs and on twitter that we liked the tobacco stocks(MO and PM) and LLY. We were net long the market with these stocks and these performed well for us. We have been short puts on YHOO - we like the idea of the sale of the core business - stock could go to 40.

Please do check out our site for our great buy/sell signals - we have been posting the charts on twiiter (follow @trucharts) - we have some amazing buy/sell signal strategies and we followed them for the energy stocks and that saved us a ton of money - specially stocks like SDRl, RIG, XOM, CVX and XLE. 

For 2016, we expect huge challenges for the markets due to lowered earnings and there is lot of technical issues with the markets that do not suggest a higher market - narrow breadth, leadership and overvaluation in many sectors - tech specifically. We would stay in some consumer staples with dividend stocks and stocks which have proven earnings power and options for hedging.  AAPL going into Q1 still looks good - but we would would hedge our position. Watch VIX closely - whenever it shoots to 30 - 40 range - start buying and we would sell biotech here - biotech bubble is over. Good luck trading.

Trucharts Founder/CEO and team
BB

Do you buy or sell now!! Markets where are they headed for Q4 and our favorite stocks - Trucharts.com Blog week ending 10/9/2015

Trucharts.com Blog - week ending 10/09/2015

Do you buy or sell now!! Markets where are they headed for Q4 and our favorite stocks - Trucharts.com Blog week ending 10/9/2015

Well the title says it all - what do you do now that we have had this wonderful rally this week - the move (to us was expected) has been decent and we had stated the markets would move higher after the retest and elevated VIX. So now the VIX is trending down, material stocks have been up, gold has been moving up, right after the Fed announcement and energy moved higher. Markets moved higher as junk bond yields recovered from an oversold condition - be mindful - there is a very high correlation between JNK (etf) and the markets. This is the correlation related to the appetite for riskier assets - specially high yield junk bonds. Based on the charts for DIA and SPY - included here below - we expect the markets to go higher as technicals are still trending higher - see the MACD, RSI and the 200d SMA looks like where we could be headed which would be 17500 for DJIA and 2050 for the S&P500 - these would pose as high resistance for the indices and huge overhead supply. We believe this is just a bounce from an oversold condition with weakening fundamentals, remember earnings drive stock prices. But there are signs of bubbles everywhere and we would be taking profits and sell into the rallies.

Here are weekly charts for DIA and SPY:

 

Now we are heading into the earnings season for Q3 and forecasts for Q4 - we will have to see what the companies say. From FACTSET news we learned that it would be the first quarter since 2009 for back to back declining earnings quarter over quarter. In addition, FACTSET noted that forward P/E is around 15.9 vs average of 14.1 (5 year). We expect big declines in energy sector along with impact to companies earnings with global exposure due to strong dollar. Well Ms Yellen is going to make it easier by driving down the dollar with the Fed's non stop money printing and ZIRP. We have deleted the earnings calendar and estimates from our site due to very low usage. We will try to see if we can get this data from some other providers. You can check our realtime news page which has an earnings section and dates for reporting.

If you own a position in TSLA - please be mindful - this stock on weekly chart looks like it headed a lot lower and has formed a nice topping pattern. It is at a very critical juncture - the 100 week SMA. Here is the chart:

Charts for gold miners and GLD are looking good for the short term - trend is higher - good for some short term trading. See chart for GLD here - not convincing enough for me. Volume is not strong - but looks like it could go to 50w SMA around 113.

Here is a chart for BABA - we went long at 62.7 based on the buy signal from our site and will close the position soon - very likely this week. As you can see the buy signal was strong and stock is still heading higher - a very unique feature from our site. Please read DISCLAIMERS on our site and our site policies. We always strongly recommend you do your own due diligence and if have never invested in stocks - these are very speculative stocks and trading inherently is not for the risk averse. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions - our recommendations are meant for seasoned traders and experienced professionals.

Please make sure you are aware of holdings in your portfolio and the earnings reporting date - this is available in Yahoo and buy some cheap protection via puts maybe 10% below the current stock price - to limit your risk.

We were also long MO and plan to stay long - strong chart and did a breakout on this past week to a new high from a consolidation pattern.

Now on to our favorite stocks for trading this week and ones we will be taking positions in. These are the stocks we will be trading this week:

http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=VRX
http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=LLY
http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=MO
http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=YUM
http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=AAL

Please take some time reviewing these charts above and monitor these stocks. There are many others but we try to limit our choices to what we think have the highest probability of making money.

Please also take some time to review our site and do subscribe - as we said for all the services we provide, we know we offer the best value for money. We cannot survive if we do not have paying subscribers and we need your support to make the site a sustaining entity. People do not work for free and we do not get anything for free. But our users use our site entirely free and do not take advantage of what we truly offer to help you make money in stocks. 

Again your support is very critical - it is a mere $9 per month. If you cannot afford that then please do not trade stocks. You pay that much in commission and will very likely lose money also.

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team and Founder/CEO

NASDAQ,DOW and SPY where are these headed? What to do with your portfolio? Trucharts Weekly Blog

Trucharts Weekly Blog

NASDAQ,DOW and SPY where are these headed? What to do with your portfolio?

Sorry that we were unable to publish our blog last weekend due to some family commitments. Well the Fed speech impact was short lived and then volatility picked up in the past week and the biggest standout was the biotech sector which had driven up the NASDAQ to its 2000 highs and everyone on TV was still bullish on biotech sector. As much as we like some stocks in the drug sector and the biotech sector, the valuations were not justified - in addition, we were seeing heavy insider selling in many companies. Many biotech companies with no revenues were showing exponential charts and if you recall how we warned about exponential charts - these always are a bad sign of things to come. Just check out some of the high flyers in the biotech sector. We were also seeing weakening technical signals in the ETF IBB when it was hitting new highs.

Check these stocks:

www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=BLUE
www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=ICPT

www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=PBYI

and then there are many more in this sector that would move on the smallest drug news. Absolutely ridiculous. We have been saying to keep and eye on the 50 week SMA for ETF IBB (which we have been short), and sure enough once it broke the line in the sand it cascaded down and now it is a pure short. We are stil short but we are long BIS (short ETF) which closed for the first time above 50 week SMA - here is a comparison chart (IBB vs BIS). Check the BIS volume - highest ever.

We also have the chart here for the buy/sell signals for IBB on weekly chart - see below (this feature is provided to our registered/subscribed users). We think IBB is headed to around 260 - 280 range. There will be margin calls on folks who are long biotech stocks.

  



Now where do we think the markets are headed - gold moved up after Godmother Yellen spoke on Thursday that rates would rise in 2015 and markets were up in on Friday early and then pulled back later in the afternoon. We believe the institutions are moving into the comfort of consumer cyclicals, staples and high divided yielding stocks in sectors that are still strong. We are concerned that we may see dividend cuts in the stocks of oil companies - just a guess - but with oil down - there is no way these companies can sustain such high payouts. In addition, we expect massive layoffs and the oil states economies will be affected (Texas, Louisiana and others). We like NKE after their earnings report. We hav been playing with NFLX and are short FIT/GPRO (valuation too high). We expect the DOW to stay range bound 15000 - 17000 for some time here, SPY is headed to around 1750 - current price is 192.85. We would be very careful here - SPY and DIA have broken 100 week SMA. 

China slowdown has now shown up in 2 major equipment suppliers - JOY and CAT. CHina is definitely slowing down and we have to see if they are headed the way of Japan. In addition, the central banks are still running loose with money printing and it seems to be helping the top 1% only. Brazil is going to the dogs with its credit rating cut. The rates for 10 year bonds in Brazil have shot up to 16% - want buy some Brazil debt - anyone? We would stay away from these stocks. We like gold stocks - but we need to see high volume breakout - we are not there yet. We encourage to write covered calls on your positions - that is what we have done and that has protected our portfolio. The trend is down. The ony thing in favor of the indices is the RSI is oversold - but needs to consolidate. Here is weekly chart for SPY:

Check out our site features at the best subscription rates in the industry and on the web:

http://truchartscom.blogspot.com/p/why-is-trucharts.html

Good luck trading.

Stay nimble.

Trucharts Team and Founder/CEO

IBB short update?? Read it..

We are providing an update on our position on IBB. It is slated to close below 50d SMA for the 1st time in over 18 months. We would short it here - we are short since 340. See RSI and MACD - trending down - this is weekly chart.

Here is the chart:

Markets - Up and Down - What to do now - BUY or SELL?

Markets - Up and Down - What to do now - BUY or SELL?

Happy Labor day to all.

Well what do we think of the markets here and the direction. We stated in several blogs that markets were exhibiting topping action and we told our readers to take profits, sell rallies and reduce exposure or go short the semiconductor and biotech sector. We have been following this advice in our own portfolio. We have been net short since late June.

Markets have been bouncing from the recent crash and everyone was getting excited. This tells us that the people are still not scared enough and the folks on CNBS (got this of the web and I love it) are still very bullish in light of the market action. The VIX is still elevated and the ISEE call put ratio is still biased towards more put buying - we have not seen such a long string of the ISEE C/P ratio trend towards put buying. Markets dropped on Friday heading into the Labor day weekend. 

Major ETFs reflecting the DOW (ETF: DIA) and others have closed below their respective 100 week SMA. This is definitely not a good sign. We think the markets are headed lower to the 200d weekly SMA and maybe to the next support of 15000 for the DOW. We still recommend lightning up on your positions and take profits in any rally. Companies earnings forecasts are not strong and many are even lower than consensus forecasts. Just take a look at DE. JOY and the semi companies. Stocks are driven by earnings and stocks with their downward movements are indicating lower earnings coming in the future. Corporate buybacks and earnings number rigging along with Fed liquidity was what was driving the markets. You can expect short term rallies due to oversold conditions - but the trend is still down and we would wait before going net long. Insiders have been selling stocks at a rapid pace and they were doing so when the markets were topping - Major insiders in the biotech sector and semi sector dumped a lot of stock at the peak - this tells us that they got extremely rich and do not anticipate any higher prices - the markets were priced to perfection and the markets had gone up without even a 10% correction for over 3 years. We have shown some of charts below.

This past weekend the finance minister for China said that the China stock bubble had burst and this tells us that the Chinese government reactions and intervention in their stock markets is not working - and guess what happens - the Chinese citizens promptly move their money into real estate - the cycle never ends. We will have to wait and see how all the events play out in China. 

China is definitely slowing down and this is the world's second largest economy. They are mired in over capacity and nit driven by internal consumption. We think this is impacting the world economy and the commodity complex as China is the biggest consumer of the commodities.

Housing prices are again up in the US and heading into another bubble and we think this is definitely in the back of the Fed's thought process and with unemployment hitting the 5.1% well within the target range of full employment for the Fed - we think there is going to be pressure on the Fed to raise the Fed Funds rate. We have now the highest rate of employment participation (that means majority of the employable folks have stopped looking for a job).

From a stock perspective - we would not go long any of the semi stocks - we like SLAB possibly - but be mindful - you can take a position if you do not mind averaging down. We would hedge all our positions by selling covered calls and or you can sell puts if you want to own a stock. Now for shorts (be mindful we do not recommend shorting for amateurs - this is for experienced folks) - we still think IBB offers the best shorting opportunity here along with AMBA stock. We are short IBB and AMBA (since 115). Even though some of the indicators are oversold on a daily basis, the weekly indicators are not oversold yet.

We recommend watching this documentary (on youtube) on how OIL controls the world and how the "SEVEN SISTERS" control the world's oil: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtYOjMmEMeg - it is called the 'Secret of SEVEN SISTERS' - unbelievable. 

Check out our buy/sell strategies automated on your portfolio to see if your stock is still a buy or sell signal - try this on weekly and daily chart. Use the Stock charts page to check this. 

As we said last week - we are self funded and would like to get more subscribers so we can look for an investor to help us take the site to the next level - we would like to ask our readers and users to subscribe - it is a measly $9 or $15 per month to get the best feature set on the web and we know this since our returning user base is engaged on our site for more than 12 minutes a session. We use very minimal budget for marketing - we use our funds primarily for development, paying salaries to our developers, and servers, news/data feeds. 

Here is the link to the subscription service page: http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx 

Here are the weekly charts along with our trendlines drawn:

 

 

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team/Founder/CEO

Fed Speak - What to do with your portfolio this week and market direction - UP or DOWN!

Fed Speak - What to do with your portfolio this week and market direction - UP or DOWN!

We just went through one of the most volatile weeks in the markets since the dog days of 2008-2009 financial crisis. Is China slowing, what is the Fed going to do and is the world headed into a recession? So many questions and the answers are not very clear. From a volatility perspective, the VIX hit the highest levels on Monday last week when the DOW traversed over 4500 points - this has never happened before - there were huge opportunities to buy at the lows that day and make a huge profit - volatility is truly a trader's gift and an easy way to generate some very quick profits - if you are a technical trader it becomes even easier. You have to make your preferred stock list and watch those only else you will not be able to choose during big market moves, like the one we had last Monday 8/24. We did make money as we were net short into the market and would have really preferred to get into some stocks that tanked at the open - we knew that the  markets would bounce - since it was an oversold condition and markets did rebound into the end of the week - just go check some of the low prices for some of the top stocks on 8/24. Several stocks opened down over 20% and then recovered very nicely. That is why you have to have cash set aside for trading on volatile days - because the returns can be magnificent. 

Markets rebounded over 1000 points on the DOW late into the week and many stocks bounced off the lows - there was short covering and some buying buy the big funds since they saw this as a huge buying opportunity - we saw the fund managers discussing this on TV. Volatility numbers are still high and we would expect volatility this week also. Major trend-lines have been broken and we have to test the trend-lines and the previous support levels (which are now resistance levels) for all the indices.

Fundamentally we do not think the economy or the tech stocks have bottomed - China slowdown and the issues/headwinds they are facing from their bad loans, high debts, exports slowing, over capacity are going to have repercussions around the world. US economy is still strong with the jobs numbers still ahead of the 200K/month magic mark and we think the Fed sees this and is ready to pull the trigger in September. We still suspect whether the Fed will actually raise the Fed Funds rate in Sept. We wil have to wait and see - from our perspective we do not think they have the 'guts' to do it. 

China intervention into their stock markets was one of the worst ideas and then they have been so reactive to every little piece of economic news, that they are acting like a 2 year old's in a candy shop. Lowering RR ratios, cutting interest rates, injecting cash, and so many others drastic measures, it makes one wonder what really is going on in China. 

Is it really that bad!!

There was The Jackson Hole meeting this weekend and the Fischer indicated that the Fed would move towards hiking rates. They know there is a bubble and they are trying to defuse it before it becomes bigger and then they are left with no tools to fight it. We will just have to wait and see with the numerous number of crazy commentary on CNBC and Bloomberg non stop about the Fed's plans. It is getting really ridiculous!!

As we write this futures are down - we expected that heading into Mondays' - typically weak in recent weeks.

Anyway, we expect the markets to consolidate here within a 500 point range - with a topside target of 17000 and low of around 16000. S$P500 to be range bound between 1920 and 2040 range. NASDAQ which was primarily up because of biotech stocks should start seeing some pullback. 

Use this opportunity to lighten up on tech stocks - fundamentally there has been no change in their outlook and forecasts - the trend is down and we expect it to stay that way. With Apple's event coming Sept 9th, we expect that the tech stocks may stay range bound here. We like SLAB for short term trade. We are short AMBA (earnings on Sept 1),SWKS,INTC,PYPL and MU. Our shorts did well for us during this downdraft. We were discussing topping action in the markets and we were ready for it. Long NFLX. We use options to hedge all our positions.

Commodities - oil bounced - expect that to be short lived - we are heading into the slowest season for oil - post summer time. Still some money to be made from short term trading here - check out chart for USO and OIL. Possibly very oversold - should go up for short term. Gold Bounced - we are keeping a close eye on this - as it is tied to the dollar - but with the weaker currencies abroad, we think gold can shine - wait and see.

Here are the charts for DIA daily and weekly - Daily chart shows an oversold condition and weekly is not oversold yet. Watch these carefully along with the VIX. We always trade stocks which have underlying options and are very liquid. We like DIS for short term - looks oversold. Do not like biotech - short IBB.

 

 

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Market Turbulence - Earnings Season and - What to expect next week - Trucharts.com Weekly Blog Update 7/25/2015

Market Turbulence - Earnings Season and - What to expect next week - Trucharts.com Weekly Blog Update 7/25/2015

What a turbulent week - all that excitement from the Greek bailout last week and with the onslaught of earnings season we ended the week down. In the prior week when the markets broke the 200d SMA on Greek news, the markets were oversold - but we indicated in our blogs that the markets were exhibiting topping action with bad breadth and narrow leadership. In addition, we stated that the semi sector was weak and heading into a major slowdown after the news from INTC. Sure enough the semi sector stocks are in a downward trend and we the earnings forecast was not strong. 

We believe the semi sector was being driven by the mobile market and that seems to be slowing down. All markets mature - just like the PC market - we are seeing the growth curve reaching a saturation point - we can expect that AAPL and companies that supply to this industry will be experiencing major slowdown in the coming years. Everyone talks about the next frontier being the automotive industry - but compared to the mobile phone market it is too small and also experiencing a slowdown. The Windows XP phase out last year was also a factor in last year's ramp in the semi stocks. But INTC is headed to 25 - they way overpaid for what ALTR was offering. A very stupid move by INTC.

AMZN and GOOG, along with NFLX - we think these caught the shorts off guard - so it was a huge short covering rally in these stocks. NFLX looks very bubble like. 

We had recommended shorts on AMKR, INTC and TSM and all these worked well for us. We were short AEM and closed that position (earlier then we wanted). Just check in our previous blog entries on where we recommended AMKR and INTC as shorts. 

We went long BIDU,CYBR,WBA,UA,LLY,V - positions in LLY,WBA and UA were called away because of our buy-write strategy - these stocks moved up very nicely. Check the charts at: www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx - 

We are currently short SWKS and AMBA (over-hyped and over-valued). 

Earnings from capital equipment industries like UTX, CAT, JOY and many others seems to be pointing a slowdown in the industrial sector in China. China news has not been positive and the government intervention into the stock markets is not a good sign. We expect further turbulence in the Chinese markets. China slowdown is also affecting the Aussies and New Zealand economies - yet their housing sector is in bubble mode - because of the low interest environment. We will have to watch and see how this plays out. 

We believe that China is playing a numbers game and trying to put on a good face on their economic issues - huge debt problems, slowing housing sector, falling stock markets, consumer slowdown, and shadow banking issues. China still needs time to truly grasp the knowledge of free markets and banking. When you can print your own currency at an unlimited pace - there will be long term implications.

We are seeing folks piling into consumer discretionary sector - we will have to wait and see how this plays out - we still like V and some of the consumer discretionary stocks. We are long MO which is set to report earnings next week. Next week is going to see a huge set of earnings from the biotech sector and also companies such as FB,LNKD and many others. Check the earnings page with calendar and mouseover charts on our site at: 

http://www.trucharts.com/EarningsView.aspx

Now let us look at some charts for the indices and stocks mentioned above (weekly charts):

Chart for AA show our automated buy/sell signals and you can see where AA was a great short - excellent signal.

SPY has not closed below 50 week SMA - very critical support, Dow Jones closed belwo 50 week SMA, INTC headed down, IWM (Russel 2000 ETF) has critical support at 50 week SMA, IBB critical support at 13 week SMA:

 

 

 

 

Good luck trading from Trucharts team. Hedge your positions.

Best of luck and happy trading.

What will markets do this earnings season - trucharts.com blog weekend edition and update

What will markets do this earnings season - trucharts.com blog weekend edition and update:

Well we had the big down move and then the earnings season started - VIX was elevated and the shorts or bears were thinking they had the upper hand - but maybe it was too early and too easy. Like they say when it is too good to be true then... The bears are probably licking their wounds - it is never good to be taking hefty positions in one direction or the other upon the dawn of earnings season, and last week, we think bears were caught off guard and this bubble growing bigger last week. Stocks like NFLX and GOOG/GOOGL killed the bears moral. We think many people were short these stocks into the earnings for these companies.

ADDED: We do not like the semi sector here - there is definitely a slowdown in this sector.

Gold is dropping like a rock - we predicted around 1000/oz and that is where we are headed - this is a bad sign seeing gold dropping - long term implications are not good - but this can be expected since markets are going up and the sentiment is in favor of the markets going up. The scenario is playing out like the 1999-2000 bubble - where stocks kept going up - real estate was going up (like now) and people stopped taking the refuge in gold and gold dropped to $200/oz and then rallied into 2008-2009 to 1900 per oz. We think we should wait on gold to bottom out and the markets topping action to complete its cycle. The bears have not thrown in the towel yet and the NASDAQ is now leading the markets - sounds like 1999-2000 - well a repeat is here. 

How can we forget about Greece - well the government and the leaders caved in and we know that the finance minister resigned because Tsipras was going break his own word. Now Greece maybe saved and the Germans averted their egotistical Euro but we think this is not the end - with many other countries to follow.. Sell out Tsipras.. 

Fed will raise rates this year and quickly ramp this into the new year - rents and housing are moving fast and the Fed does not want this to get out of hand..

The internet stocks are trading at ridiculous valuations - again - check the market caps of all the major movers last week - FB, GOOG and NFLX. Biotech is still moving up and the breadth in the overall markets is very weak - that means that leadership is very narrow and only a small section of the overall market stocks are moving higher. There is very good evidence of a bubble scenario here - stocks up, real estate up and the Fed is still at 0% rate. You can clearly see this in the ETF and stock charts below: Do you see a pattern here??  SPY bounced nicely off the 50 week SMA.

 

 

 

 

Looks like the bubble is still intact.

Just check the charts for IBB,NFLX,NKE,UA,NEU and there are many others like these. YUP there is no bubble. 

Next week over 450 companies will be reporting earnings - AAPL,MSFT,IBM,MMM and many others. We think the NASDAQ is taking the lead here from the internet and biotech stocks and the biotech bubble is still not ready to burst. These are great trading vehicles. We expect the DJIA to stay range bound and the SPY to track the NASDAQ - VIX dropped to below 12 and the stocks were coming off an oversold condition and the technicals like MACD, RSI and SMAs still are pointing to a move up.

We closed our INTC short and are short AMBA,AEM and long BIDU,CYBR,WBA and V,
WBA Chart: www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=WBA 

We like BIDU here - coming off a bottom and oversold condition - earnings are on 7/23.

Check out our site and we have the best buy/sell signals on daily and weekly charts - no other site offers this feature and we will be now limiting access to paying subscribers very soon.

Good luck trading and focus on hedging your positions with options - we do that for all our positions.

Trucharts Team

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