Awesom video update this week - check it out...

 

What we traded this week - WYNN,AMAT,MU,NXPI and discuss the big cap names and NVDA.

• Markets update for the past week – DIA,QQQ,SPY,SSO
• Earnings upcoming - NVDA
• Bank stocks and Dow stocks – CAT,DE,BA,JNJ,AAPL,MSFT
• ETF page
• WYNN, AMAT, MU, MTCH, NXPI
• SHOP and shorting
• Candlestick vs OHLC bars
• Software stocks
• stock Z (Zillow group)
• Backtest feature another use case
• Software or SAAS stocks CRWD,ZS,COUP,OKTA and MACD patterns
• Subscribe, database issue update and screener example
• Contact us – truchartscom@gmail.com
• Follow us on twitter - @trucharts

https://youtu.be/h9VaZFpVN7A

 

B Bhatia

Markets Panic amid the corona virus

Markets Panic amid the corona virus

Well, since our last post, markets have gone even further down and have pretty much wiped out the whole Trump elections gains in a matter of two weeks.  We have been warning of bubbles and valuations being absolutely out of control and now reality is starting to come into focus. We suspect margin calls are also exacerbating the selling  We were short and were long some puts and took on some longs today.. Two of our accounts was in an all cash position. 

Still there is risk and we are waiting for some of our indicators to show when buying is safe. The bottom is not in yet and you may see some wild rallies - do not buy - but only use these to unload or do intraday trading - there is lot of money to be made here.. We will see a bottom and it will be very obvious once it arrives and the pent up demand will be huge... So be ready.

if you have not taken profits in stocks that are making money like AMZN, AAPL and MSFT along with FB, NFLX - we highly recommend taking profits.. These stocks have not reached a bottom yet even with the intermediate rallies.. Check out our tweets @trucharts and check out some of the charts we post during the week. We have been short AAPL, SHOP and ROKU.. We closed our ROKU position today.. 

Again - we recommend doing intraday trading and using options to collect and get good premiums. The bottom is not in yet as much as it may appear from the oversold conditions and the VIX.. We may see a short term rally here - but use these to sell.. 

Good luck trading..

Check out our site - for excellent real time charts, quotes and fundamental data along with our excellent screener..

B. Bhatia

Founder Trucharts.com

The Fed, the markets and tech stocks - FAANG - NVDA and others

The Fed, the markets and tech stocks - FAANG - NVDA, FB and others

Well the Fed showed that it has balls and is not dictated by markets or politics - and this is what would be expected if they are truly independent and focused on maintaining their mandate of full employment and low inflation - the previous two Fed generals or chairman/chairwoman did a terrible injustice by not raising early enough and leading to a massive ALL asset bubble - not just in good old USA, but all over the world. We were not aware but Chairman Powell has been an investment banker and a hedge fund manager. We hope he saw that the bubble was brewing in the markets and that valuations were truly over extended to a level that matched the 2000 bubble. Along with this we have a massive debt issuance from corporates that are rated at grade "BBB" - when companies issued bonds at cheap rates and this number has ballooned to $4T (yes TRILLION) from 1.5T in 2008. Watch the FAANG stocks - these are broken..

We have provided here a link for a very good article from Mauldin economics (one of the better ones written) - 

www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/powell-the-third-mandate-the-new-fed-and-crawdads - Check it out - it has some really good data.

We are down a mere 6% and everyone is panicking - imagine that - a mere 6% and apparently a growing economy (bustling as they say) - where it cannot handle a Fed funds rate of a mere 2.5% - what is wrong with a 2.5% fed funds rate - that is just 50bp over the 2% mandated inflation rate. Really - how is that our wonderful economy cannot tolerate such a normal Fed funds rate.. All the idiots on CNBC and Bloomberg - are nothing but a bunch speculators who have never experienced a bubble.   As we mentioned in our previous blog post - not a single soul has mentioned the word bubble - or how truly overvalued the markets are still - even after this pullback. We also stated that bear market rallies are fierce and vicious - so watch for many more of these in 2019 - but the trend is still down and there will be a reversion to the mean - it is called the law of nature and physics. Drumpf panicking as is Mnuchin - such morons.. Do check our comments on our last blog on how tops are marked with 3 different events.

We would like you to refer to our previous posts on stocks and why these were overvalued - stocks like NVDA, ALGN, ADBE and NOW. Check the charts we had posted and we are still recommending to sell these if you are making money. NVDA and ALGN are both down over 50% - and do you recall the analyst who upgraded the stock at 290 along with the analyst who upgraded ALGN. Well these guys still have their jobs and the stocks are down over 60%. We picked ADBE as our next big short - as it has a market cap of over 100B - for a company that does only 10B in revenue - what is that - a P/S of 10x.. Again overvalued and over hyped stock. We keep track of our key indicators and our indicators are saying there is more downside and there will be rallies on perceived good news and from oversold conditions - but these will be rallies to sell into. Here is our updated short portfolio;

We are still recommending shorting HD and LOW - the retailers will have a tough time in 2019 and this is being reflected in their stock prices - shorting Macys (M) would be a good idea here.

Again we will are in process of revamping our site - expect to launch in January - new features along with direct trading from our platform. Can't wait..

We want to wish everyone a merry Christmas and Happy New Year and wishing everyone good luck in their trading and some sound advice - to stop listening to the bozos on TV - Cramer, CNBC and Bloomberg. Too much analysis and non stop gibberish. Do your own work and analysis - it does not take that long to make sensible decisions.

Trucharts.com Founder

Our top short picks and markets

Our top short picks and markets

What a roller coaster - down 700 point and then up 700 points, we have had one of the most volatile periods since any recent memory in the markets. But we said in our last article that bear market rallies are fierce and vicious - these happen to shake out the weak, but the trend does not change - it happens to suck in those who think markets are bouncing back and going higher - this picture has been played before many a time. Basically what happens after a long period in these type of bull markets, where every dip is bought and things go back up again. The mindset of the investors and many becomes complacent and it is like becoming habituated or trained and maybe even numb to any volatility. On top of that if you add all the sound on TV, news and articles - you seem to be lulled into the fact that it is all OK and you can just keep buying - it will always go higher. We mentioned in our last post - it is like being at a party and everybody is high and drunk - no one knows what the hangover will be like. We recommend you read this article and it echoes our sentiment on housing and credit bubble:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-08/everything-bubble-has-popped

We are witnessing people reducing prices in one of the most hyped up housing places in America - California - specially Bay Area where folks were tripping over each other to buy houses - overbidding with cash offers was a common staple.. Now we are seeing price reductions ranging from a very low percent all the way up to 40% reductions - UNHEARD OF IN Bay area - we are staying with our prediction of the coming 30% price correction in California and Bay Area.

We wanted to also show how tops in some stocks are made - this always happens when companies build monuments to their success - good examples of this in our present era are - guess - NVDA, AAPL, FB and CRM - this tells us the story in these stock is also over.. So sell these while you are making money.

If you recall we have been steadfast on our call on NVDA stock being one of the most over-hyped and over priced semiconductor stock in the history of the markets (as much as we missed the bull run in the stock) - we stayed with our call on shorting it all the way up. As we stated sometimes it requires a lot of patience - the stock was trading at the highest P/S multiple ever. Well the markets finally spoke and the stock has crashed over 50%. We think it is going to $80.. Another over-hyped stock in our short list was ALGN - what a joke - stock went from 80 to 400+ - we said short it - and as of Friday the stock has crash 50% - think about that 50% - it is now at 200. The stock was trading at a P/S multiple of 17-18 - so for every $1 in revenue - people were willing to $17 - what a fucking joke. We were long puts and made some good money.

Well we want to bring to you our next top short picks - if you make some money - at least give us some credit and subscribe to our site - here they are - LULU, HD, ADBE and NOW. ADBE is trading at a P/S of almost 14 - Market cap 114B and 8B in revenue (ridiculous); NOW trading at 17 P/S ratio - 2 B in revenue and market cap of 33.5B; HD is a call on the housing slow down - just short it - over priced - we expect their earnings are headed lower.. LULU another retail dump stock and over hyped. We have other plays but these are on the top of our list. We are still short and hold shorts on these stocks in our account except HD for now - we will swap TXN short for HD short.

We like gold as it has been holding up and cash as a holding - gold has been moving up and this is telling us that there is some event that may occur which will impact the markets - maybe Deutsche Bank (DB) - it is not clear. In addition this has been a market for traders and not investors and it will stay the same for the foreseeable future - there is money to be made for the last few weeks via via intraday trading. So stay on your toes and again - this is not an invest-able market - majority of our accounts are in cash and we published our short and short/long portfolio on our twitter handle - @trucharts.

We do not do FB - but do post on twitter our trades. One additional prediction - FB will not be a company in ten years.

We have an incredible deal coming in Jan on our site www.trucharts.com  - stay tuned..

Good luck trading.

Founder and Trucharts team

Tech Stocks - Alibaba (BABA) and China/Semiconductor Stocks Updated/Fixed for fonts

Tech Stocks - Alibaba (BABA) and China/Semiconductor Stocks

First disclosure - We missed this bubble and are really upset that we missed it - made money in the last two bubbles but did not see this one even though it was staring us straight in the eyes. But this was an important lesson learned and a very expensive one at that. We missed many amazing stocks and that is what upsets us the most.. Truly disappointing..

Now back to the markets:What a run up - absolutely amazing - it was a classic up move from a huge pullback from earlier in the year. Every stock was just going up, up and up. There was no stopping the BULL train and indices hitting new highs - many stocks hitting new highs - company valuations crossing $1Trillion - bigger than the GDP of many nations put together.. Yet not one analyst or talking head or journalist (except that 1%) were willing to utter the word BUBBLE. New startups being valued at numbers that exceed the 2000 bubble, funding at levels not seen even in 2000 - Idiot Masayoshi - raising 100B funds like candy.. These are the signs of bubbles - not a single soul is scared or even concerned - margin debt at all time highs. P/S of companies at records - companies making no money being funded as they are going to make BILLIONS.. We have to say these are all signs we have seen and witnessed before and these never end nicely.. We have become addicted to bubbles and we have now perpetuated 3 within a span of 18 years - that is unheard of. Massive money printing and FOMO amongst the VCS, the investing public and machines doing the trading has led to this excess of massive proportions. There is not a single day when a company is going public - which is a sign the smart money (VCs) are cashing out - while everyone is high and drunk.. Some examples of stocks trading at ridiculous P/S - NOW - over 18x P/S; ETSY - over 14x P/S; and there are many more. The numbers of companies trading at these type of valuations is absolutely staggering. And every new company has now a valuation above $1B - it is an absolute joke - NVDA trading at over 170B market cap and P/S of over 15 for a semiconductor company - that is unheard of in the history of semi companies. Full disclosure - we are short NVDA.Here is a comment from ex CEO Scott McNealy from good old Sun Microsystems which eventually went out of business: read the words - they are actually amazing from a valuation perspective:



Anyway we can go on and on and now the 10Y Treasury is yielding over 25 bp over 3% and heading higher. Housing bubbles are cracking in many parts of the world - India, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, New York, Denver and many other locations are starting to breakdown from this incessant building of homes and apartments (flats as they are known abroad)You can only blow a bubble so big before it eventually explodes.. And the Fed and the world are all addicted to bubbles. We have huge issues with pensions all around the world - debt to GDP ratios at extremes and student loans, auto loans (with high car payments ever and highest number of payback years). Credit card debt at extremes and everyone is loaded with debt - this is unsustainable. The Indian banking system which was flush with loose money and corrupt insiders is now unraveling at a rapid pace and the INR is dropping to record lows while the markets are finally coming down. We think there may be a reset - do not know when and how - but something has to give because we have gone past the limits of what makes sense. It would have been better if the central banks had a good plan and approach to the crisis and managed it in a much slower and better fashion - but that is not what happened - they turned on the tap at full speed and now what we are experiencing is the overflow effects with no control left. It is like unleashing a monster.. If they would have taken a slow and gradual approach we would not be where we are today - staring down another bubble.. Unfortunately we want quick fixes and have been addicted to these bubble methods - which in the end always lead to busts.. This bust will last longer then anytime before and it will not be pretty. Just wanted to pen down our thoughts this week.We would sell the stocks like BABA - broken down and many tech stocks are finally breaking the 200d SMAs (some have already done so and have gone down since - look at MCHP and now we expect the same for TXN and BIDU etc.) So buy and hold works great when everything moves up in tandem but fails when things go sideways and/or start to breakdown.. We will update more next week. We are recommending short on ETSY and ROKU.

There is some exciting news coming from our site/platform - keep tuned..Good luck trading.

Founder Trucharts.com/Co-founder JETSTOX.com