Aug 5 markets update and has the market tone changed?

 

Markets update Aug 5 2023 - and our thoughts for Q3

Check out the video at the link below:

https://youtu.be/YhBPPdgW2q0

Awesom video update this week - check it out...

 

What we traded this week - WYNN,AMAT,MU,NXPI and discuss the big cap names and NVDA.

• Markets update for the past week – DIA,QQQ,SPY,SSO
• Earnings upcoming - NVDA
• Bank stocks and Dow stocks – CAT,DE,BA,JNJ,AAPL,MSFT
• ETF page
• WYNN, AMAT, MU, MTCH, NXPI
• SHOP and shorting
• Candlestick vs OHLC bars
• Software stocks
• stock Z (Zillow group)
• Backtest feature another use case
• Software or SAAS stocks CRWD,ZS,COUP,OKTA and MACD patterns
• Subscribe, database issue update and screener example
• Contact us – truchartscom@gmail.com
• Follow us on twitter - @trucharts

https://youtu.be/h9VaZFpVN7A

 

B Bhatia

Markets update Aug 8th - How we made 40% on AMD in 20% on MTCH in a week.. and 40% on NVAX..

Markets update week ending Aug 8 and what stocks to watch for next week

In the video this week we discuss the following - check it out and watch the whole video - you will see how to make money...

1.Site features and what we offer (voice issue (video), real time quotes and charts, self funded, subscribe, database update and screener)

2.Markets update for the past week – DIA,QQQ,SPY,SSO

3.Multiple stock charts

4.How we traded and made a 40% return on AMD, over 20% on MTCH and over 30% on

   NVAX

5.Bank stocks, ETF page, Reports page (Dow 30), CAT,DE,DIS,JNJ,FDX,UPS (gap ups)

6.Moving average examples and breakouts for OLED, BYND, ANET, FVRR, NFLX, AAPL, FB

7.Our favorite stock Z (Zillow group) and how we close to doubled our money

8.Backtest feature

9.Heatmap issue and fix, update

10.Software or SAAS stocks CRWD,ZS,COUP,OKTA and MACD patterns

11.Contact us – truchartscom@gmail.com

12.Follow us on twitter - @trucharts

Video:

Markets Panic amid the corona virus

Markets Panic amid the corona virus

Well, since our last post, markets have gone even further down and have pretty much wiped out the whole Trump elections gains in a matter of two weeks.  We have been warning of bubbles and valuations being absolutely out of control and now reality is starting to come into focus. We suspect margin calls are also exacerbating the selling  We were short and were long some puts and took on some longs today.. Two of our accounts was in an all cash position. 

Still there is risk and we are waiting for some of our indicators to show when buying is safe. The bottom is not in yet and you may see some wild rallies - do not buy - but only use these to unload or do intraday trading - there is lot of money to be made here.. We will see a bottom and it will be very obvious once it arrives and the pent up demand will be huge... So be ready.

if you have not taken profits in stocks that are making money like AMZN, AAPL and MSFT along with FB, NFLX - we highly recommend taking profits.. These stocks have not reached a bottom yet even with the intermediate rallies.. Check out our tweets @trucharts and check out some of the charts we post during the week. We have been short AAPL, SHOP and ROKU.. We closed our ROKU position today.. 

Again - we recommend doing intraday trading and using options to collect and get good premiums. The bottom is not in yet as much as it may appear from the oversold conditions and the VIX.. We may see a short term rally here - but use these to sell.. 

Good luck trading..

Check out our site - for excellent real time charts, quotes and fundamental data along with our excellent screener..

B. Bhatia

Founder Trucharts.com

Is the bull run over or is it just a correction? AAPL, Biotech, Industrials - what and where are the markets headed in this swoon?

Is the bull run over or is it just a correction? 

AAPL, Biotech, Industrials - what and where are the markets headed in this swoon?

Trucharts.com - Weekly Blog update

Hi to all our readers and viewers. We did not publish a blog last weekend due to some family commitments. 

Finally got back to the markets and sure enough - excitement all week - DOW was down seven days in a row. The Dow Jones, AAPL, NASDAQ, BIOTECH, Technology, Semi-Stocks and many indices were down for the week. Oil crashing, commodities crashing, China markets down (over $4T valuation wiped out), gold was down - then bounced, earnings were spotty and big energy stocks are being abandoned. With oil crashing, energy companies margins and earnings will be headed downwards. 

Narrow breadth and leadership in the markets were the key points we discussed in our previous blogs as being the indicators and signs of a topping market. We had several huge 3 digit moves and these type of moves are very characteristic nature of topping markets and this is exactly what we were observing. We had also indicated through our facebook and twitter page to sell into any rallies or going short certain stocks. 

A fight between the bull and the bears and short covering were driving stocks like CMG,GOOG,AMZN,NFLX and the top horsemen of the markets higher. The DOW component stocks are being hammered down and we think the DOW has definitely topped out. Revenue growth in companies in the S&P500 were unimpressive and EPS were primarily inline and forecasts were either lower or inline. We will have to wait to see how this plays out. We had also indicated to be short the semiconductor stocks after the INTC and MU earnings report and this played out very favorably for us. We are still short INTC,AMBA and SWKS. QRVO news was terrible and many other companies reported inline and their forecasts were below analyst estimates. We think this will impact AAPL earnings next quarter - the Apple watch and Apple Pay are also not performing well. We prefer to be short the AAPL suppliers and would lighten up on any technology positions on any rallies in this sector.

Now the Biotech stocks - these are the stocks that have helped the NASDAQ run upto new highs (eclipsing it's old high from the 2000 bubble). These are starting to show signs of fatigue from the huge run-ups and for the first time in over a year the IBB etf closed below it's 13 week SMA. We need to see it stay below this 13 week SMA for another week and if it does, we can expect it to go the 50 week SMA at around 320. We are short IBB. We are also seeing some stocks in this sector dropping from their bubbly highs. 

We had to close our TWTR position - we think this stock is headed lower. We had hedged the position with puts so we were able to handle the loss. We went long NFLX.

The averages have definitely broken some trendlines along with some major averages - we think this a bad sign and expect some volatility in August going into the September Fed meeting. Jobs report this past week was 215K but that was still above what we call a critical threshold of 200K jobs per month. Real estate is in a bubble mode and as are stocks and both these sectors will have to correct - stocks are already correcting and it is definitely a stock picker's market.  

UPDATE: We forgot to mention the number of new highs has been contracting sharply and therefore stocks hitting new lows is rising. Media stocks tanked last week and many of these broke major trendlines, and there has been major insider selling in all stocks. These are all signs that we have topped out after this 7 year bull market run. We would highly advise to take profits and sell any rallies.

As for China - the country is now in control of their markets - but we think this will be a futile exercise and the country is mired in over capacity, high debt, real estate bubble and still has a strong currency - we think they need to devalue the Yuan to gain over their rivals in the Asian subcontinent. Shadow banking is a huge problem in China and we have to see how the party handles the situation and not letting the markets run freely.

Let us see some of the charts we have discussed above along with the indices charts:

1. AAPL Chart support at 105 - expect a bounce after MACD and RSI turn. Short.
2. DOW Jones support at around 17000
3. IBB headed to around 330-350 range - Short
4. NASDAQ support at 50 week SMA.
5. NFLX still looking strong
6. SPY - support at 50 week SMA

 

 

 


Interesting articles for reading this week:

http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/93862/why-china-extremely-vulnerable-now
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-08/12-trillion-fat-finger-how-glitch-nearly-crashed-global-financials-system-true-story
http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/legionnaires-outbreak-new-york-city-bill-de-blasio/2015/08/07/id/669061/
http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-dragon-losing-shine-foreign-firms-035151394.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/buck-wargo/boomerang-kids_b_7912484.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/150-watch-terrifying-apple-luxury-184402938.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/made-by-china-is-what-chinese-consumers-want-now-2015-8?r=UK&IR=T
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/irresistible-china-stock-trade-keeps-160001314.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-producer-prices-slide-to-six-year-low-in-july-2015-8
http://www.businessinsider.com/factset-q3-eps-estimates-sp-500-prices-2015-8
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-worlds-seventh-largest-economy-is-in-a-downward-spiral-2015-8

Good luck trading.

Trucharts Team

Where are the markets headed - UP or DOWN?

Trucharts.com - Blog Update - Week ending 5/15/2015

Where are the markets headed - up or down??

We were unable to publish our blog for week ending 5/8 as we were in China due to blogging restrictions. We are going to summarize the market events for the last two weeks and provide our outlook for the coming weeks and thoughts on some trading.

Well we noticed a pattern during the past two weeks - markets would be sluggish during the early part of the week and then ramp into the end of week trading - week of 5/8 we had a huge move on Friday and last week the big move occured on Thursday. Bonds which have been crushed for the past few months (see TBT chart below) bounced back and it is currently oversold and we expect TBT to move up to its 50d SMA. This will lead to a drop in yields in the coming weeks and interest sensitive stocks should move higher - housing stocks like DHI and LEN to move higher. Markets moved higher on Thursday due to the lower retail number print and the jobless claims number. The markets are totally schizoprehnic - every data point is like a tug of war between the bulls and the bears - but we think the bulls are winning.

The indices like S&P500 brokeout to a new high last week and we expect the move higher. Check the charts below for DIA, SPY, SVXY and TNA. With the Fed pumping money into the economy and staying on the sidelines with the low or ZIRP will drive stocks higher. The Fed is stuck in a corner and we have been saying this for weeks. There is internal strife within the Fed governors and there is lot of jawboning going on the interest rate hike front. This is creating a stable trading environment in stocks - we especially like the drug stocks and stocks with weekly option expirations. The NASDAQ moves are being dictated by the biotech stocks. We expect the biotech ETFs to move higher here - these have still not closed below the 13 week SMA.

Our USO position closed on Friday, we are looking to go long BIDU,TWTR. Oil did bounce back and is back at being above $60. Gold rallied and we expect a pullback. The Greece situation has been nothing but noise. Eurozone economies did well due to the pullback in the Euro, but the markets saw a pullback last week. China is in a bubble and will not end until everyone is loaded up - there is a billionaire being made every week - reminds us of the 2000 Nasdaq tech bubble. 

We are still long MO,DNKN,BIDU and we will close our BOX position this week.

ISEE C/P ratio hit a new 52 week high on Thursday - it recorded a reading of 228 and that means over 2.2 calls were being bought for every put. This typically points to a higher market. Hedges are cheap now as volatility is low and we recommend buying some SPY puts and or puts for your positions at 10% below for 30d out timeframe.

Checkout our backtest article we posted last week for our site and also check out excellent subscription rates for full access and it is currently discounted at 50% for one year access - here is the link - http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx and we would really appreciate if you can spread the word for our site - and create a buzz - we know we have one of the best stock charting sites on the web. We have updated our home page and are still adding features daily. Check these out and send us your feedback - support@trucharts.com - your feedback is so critical to help us improve our user experience. 

Closed EEM short.

Here are some articles for some good reading this week. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-16/what-goldman-telling-its-clients-sell-may-and-dont-come-back-one-year

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-16/one-gauge-investor-sentiment-just-hit-6-year-high

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-17/presenting-77-billion-p2p-bubble

Here are the charts we are watching this week:

 

 

 


Good luck trading. 

Trucharts Team

Backtest feature at Trucharts.com

Backtest feature at Trucharts.com:

Stock Chart(s) Free - Trucharts.com - MACD Chart - Charting, Technical Analysis, Hot Stocks, Real time Stock news:

Check this customizable backtest feature on our site - we show here an example run for SMA cross with a 10day exit after the event occurs and you can see over 1000 bars the profit was 165%. SMA crossover is 5d crosses above 9d SMA. You can customize these for long or short events for any stock. Green color transactions point to profitable trades.