Trucharts.com markets update Jul 12 and stocks to buy for next week. ROKU...

Schizophrenic markets, Fed Reserve, Powell and markets moving up, FAANG stocks

Schizophrenic markets, Fed  Reserve, Powell and markets moving up, FAANG stocks

Well the man with balls - lost them over Xmas and New Year's eve - you know who we are talking about - none other than good old Powell himself.. I guess he had a good chat with grandma Yellen and good old bubble maker Bernanke himself and suddenly had his balls chopped off for being too aggressive and making the rich poor - oh we feel for the rich!!! What a fucking joke. Markets gyrating 1000 points in a day, 700 points - guess we have to get used to these type of moves. And then we have the blabber heads on TV trying to explain these markets. And non stop talk about the Fed and their constant analysis - just annoying - it would be nice to have a channel where no one says anything. Yet have you heard anyone yet mentioning that the bubble is falling apart. Somehow the Fed roll off the balance sheet is now being questioned after the teachers of Powell (Yellen/Bernanke) made some noise on Friday and everyone was excited. Again we are coming off very oversold conditions and several stocks are bouncing of key moving averages. We like any stock here for the short term - normally all stocks in the indices will move with the move up. so the FAANG stocks are also good for the ride up. Banking stocks look strong on charts - again be mindful - we are talking about some short term moves here and these can be used to trade intra-day and for overnight positions. Obvious names come to mind - FB, GOOG, SHOP, GRUB, NFLX (which moved up and we think it is going to 300). There are many other heavily shorted stocks that also have high betas.

Here is an article worth reading:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-06/ugly-truth-you-wont-hear-fed

The AAPL news was expected - it was obvious based on the suppliers indicating that their biggest customer (as if this was a big secret) was canceling orders - so the news from AAPL should not have shocked anyone and it was also obvious when the stock started falling after the last earnings report. As expected the stocks dropped and the once darling of Wall Street lost a total of over 350B in market cap value - that is the whole market cap for FB - and we say the markets are not over-valued or expensive - this is actually happening - everyone is in equities and the ETFs do not help - we think ETFs should be banned - these distort markets and are really another way for Wall St to just make more money. How are these different from mutual funds - there is really no difference.

AAPL will need to change its approach on the next generation phones and there is nothing new on the horizon and specially this paying $1000 for a phone days are over. These companies need to start realizing that after a certain point - (same as computers) - people are not going to pay up for small feature improvements and there is a lot of competition in this space. Competitive phones are cheaper and better. A good phone should be no more than 500 - yet all these companies keep pricing themselves out of the markets. As you can see Samsung and AAPL are losing market share to Chinese competitors all around the world and we expect that prices will trend downwards as we may have reached the peak with IPHONE X.

There will be backlash as ordinary customers will stop paying these high prices being pushed onto them. This is going to be the next computer - lots of competition and prices will start to come down. There is a lot of buzz around 5G - we expect some noise around this - but it will be short lived. Prices will not be going any higher from here on forward. This means it will impact margins not just for AAPL, Samsung and others - but also their downline suppliers - they will be put under pressure on component pricing.

We would trade the markets here as earnings season is upon us - watch the man without the balls now - Powell - who changes his tune every couple of weeks. He is like a management trainee..

We are expecting to launch our new revamped site with new features and buy/sell directly from our site towards the end of Jan - slight delay to our original planned date.

Time to go and make some money.. Good luck trading.

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2019..

Trucharts team/Founder (Co-founder Jetstox.com)

Best October Market Rally, Do you Buy, Sell or Hold?

Best October Market Rally, Do you Buy, Sell or Hold?

Trucharts.com Blog update week of 10/26/2015

Well again due to some business commitments we were unable to update our weekly blog for over two weeks now. We are finally back and updating our readers on what has transpired and with all the financial media going nuts over the best October rally, we have to sit back and see what to do next and plan for Q4. Check out our site for the best buy/sell signals for stocks and just apply it on BABA stock and you will see why we went long at 62.. Go tot the stock charts page and click on the Trucharts Trading Strategies bar - seen in red below and you will get the different trading strategy options to apply to the chart - (please read our disclaimers - please do your due diligence and consult with your financial adviser before making investment decisions) - this is for information purposes only. We offer this to our paying and free subscribed users only. You can try this on VRX and you will see it generated a SELL signal around 220.

There is no doubt that the rally was expected. We had discussed this in our last blog and our updates via twitter (twitter handle: @trucharts) and on facebook at (https://www.facebook.com/truchartscom-273554162830234/) - we expected S&P to reach around 2100, DJIA to reach around 17800 to 18000 and that is exactly what the indices did during the October rally and with earnings season in full force - markets responded to stocks with good earnings. We believe that this is a short lived rally and even if we hit new highs, we would sell into the rallies. Markets are not significantly overbought yet so we expect some sideways movements in the indices. The Fed spoke (amazing) and now that they realize they are well behind the curve in raising rates, the again tried to spook the markets by indicating a possible rate hike for December. Markets are in bubble mode - real estate along with it and it is not just here but all around the world. We have bubble blowers and Central banks printing money while earnings from companies are drying up and not even meeting lower estimates. The Wall Street gang plays this game beautifully, lower the estimates and when the companies report slightly better results, the street starts their cheering. One has to look through the numbers - but from a technical trading point of view you just have to be ready to trade based on the earnings announcements. Here are some charts for the S&P , DJIA and a chart we pulled from a very interesting article on M&A activity which typically tends to peak around market tops.

ADDED: Another good read:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-31/quick-bull-vs-bear-case-8-charts

Link to article: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-beginning-end-bull-market-131106708.html 

Source Bloomberg/UBS:

From the charts below for SP500 and DJIA we expect sideways movement and possible new highs into Q4 due to a typically strong Q4 season for the markets and we would lighten up into this sideways and possible upward movement. We would not hesistate to write covered calls on long positions. We have done that already for many of our accounts. Many tobacco stocks appear overbought, so we would either sell these or hedge with puts or reduce cost basis via covered call strategy. We are long PM and LLY. Our MRK position got called away.

As you can see the MACD is getting extended as is the RSI reaching overbought conditions. But we expect this to last for sometime with minor pullbacks and sideways movements.

 

We would lighten up on biotech stocks and health insurance companies. We believe that Obamacare is a total disaster and will very likely get repealed if the GOP takes the White house. The premiums are unaffordable and we are seeing several co-ops going out of business due to high costs and then the insured are being put into a situation with no coverage and high costs. We believe this will not end well and there will be a new wave or change in the healthcare system in this nation. The current scenario is not sustainable and is designed heavily in the favor of insurance companies and drug companies. We also think these insurance companies may have reached a peak in their earnings cycle. Our net portfolio is short tech stocks. AAPL seems to have peaked and we do not expect any major move in AAPL - we still like NFLX - as Q4 is a strong season for them.

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team

Is the bull run over or is it just a correction? AAPL, Biotech, Industrials - what and where are the markets headed in this swoon?

Is the bull run over or is it just a correction? 

AAPL, Biotech, Industrials - what and where are the markets headed in this swoon?

Trucharts.com - Weekly Blog update

Hi to all our readers and viewers. We did not publish a blog last weekend due to some family commitments. 

Finally got back to the markets and sure enough - excitement all week - DOW was down seven days in a row. The Dow Jones, AAPL, NASDAQ, BIOTECH, Technology, Semi-Stocks and many indices were down for the week. Oil crashing, commodities crashing, China markets down (over $4T valuation wiped out), gold was down - then bounced, earnings were spotty and big energy stocks are being abandoned. With oil crashing, energy companies margins and earnings will be headed downwards. 

Narrow breadth and leadership in the markets were the key points we discussed in our previous blogs as being the indicators and signs of a topping market. We had several huge 3 digit moves and these type of moves are very characteristic nature of topping markets and this is exactly what we were observing. We had also indicated through our facebook and twitter page to sell into any rallies or going short certain stocks. 

A fight between the bull and the bears and short covering were driving stocks like CMG,GOOG,AMZN,NFLX and the top horsemen of the markets higher. The DOW component stocks are being hammered down and we think the DOW has definitely topped out. Revenue growth in companies in the S&P500 were unimpressive and EPS were primarily inline and forecasts were either lower or inline. We will have to wait to see how this plays out. We had also indicated to be short the semiconductor stocks after the INTC and MU earnings report and this played out very favorably for us. We are still short INTC,AMBA and SWKS. QRVO news was terrible and many other companies reported inline and their forecasts were below analyst estimates. We think this will impact AAPL earnings next quarter - the Apple watch and Apple Pay are also not performing well. We prefer to be short the AAPL suppliers and would lighten up on any technology positions on any rallies in this sector.

Now the Biotech stocks - these are the stocks that have helped the NASDAQ run upto new highs (eclipsing it's old high from the 2000 bubble). These are starting to show signs of fatigue from the huge run-ups and for the first time in over a year the IBB etf closed below it's 13 week SMA. We need to see it stay below this 13 week SMA for another week and if it does, we can expect it to go the 50 week SMA at around 320. We are short IBB. We are also seeing some stocks in this sector dropping from their bubbly highs. 

We had to close our TWTR position - we think this stock is headed lower. We had hedged the position with puts so we were able to handle the loss. We went long NFLX.

The averages have definitely broken some trendlines along with some major averages - we think this a bad sign and expect some volatility in August going into the September Fed meeting. Jobs report this past week was 215K but that was still above what we call a critical threshold of 200K jobs per month. Real estate is in a bubble mode and as are stocks and both these sectors will have to correct - stocks are already correcting and it is definitely a stock picker's market.  

UPDATE: We forgot to mention the number of new highs has been contracting sharply and therefore stocks hitting new lows is rising. Media stocks tanked last week and many of these broke major trendlines, and there has been major insider selling in all stocks. These are all signs that we have topped out after this 7 year bull market run. We would highly advise to take profits and sell any rallies.

As for China - the country is now in control of their markets - but we think this will be a futile exercise and the country is mired in over capacity, high debt, real estate bubble and still has a strong currency - we think they need to devalue the Yuan to gain over their rivals in the Asian subcontinent. Shadow banking is a huge problem in China and we have to see how the party handles the situation and not letting the markets run freely.

Let us see some of the charts we have discussed above along with the indices charts:

1. AAPL Chart support at 105 - expect a bounce after MACD and RSI turn. Short.
2. DOW Jones support at around 17000
3. IBB headed to around 330-350 range - Short
4. NASDAQ support at 50 week SMA.
5. NFLX still looking strong
6. SPY - support at 50 week SMA

 

 

 


Interesting articles for reading this week:

http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/93862/why-china-extremely-vulnerable-now
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-08/12-trillion-fat-finger-how-glitch-nearly-crashed-global-financials-system-true-story
http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/legionnaires-outbreak-new-york-city-bill-de-blasio/2015/08/07/id/669061/
http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-dragon-losing-shine-foreign-firms-035151394.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/buck-wargo/boomerang-kids_b_7912484.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/150-watch-terrifying-apple-luxury-184402938.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/made-by-china-is-what-chinese-consumers-want-now-2015-8?r=UK&IR=T
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/irresistible-china-stock-trade-keeps-160001314.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-producer-prices-slide-to-six-year-low-in-july-2015-8
http://www.businessinsider.com/factset-q3-eps-estimates-sp-500-prices-2015-8
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-worlds-seventh-largest-economy-is-in-a-downward-spiral-2015-8

Good luck trading.

Trucharts Team

Trucharts.com - NFLX and JAZZ buy signals - check this out

Free Stock Charts, Auto Buy/Sell Signals - Trucharts.com:

Market closed up today - we had a 7:3 advances to decliners on the NYSE. NASDAQ and Amex were almost even advances to decliners. S&P closed almost at the highs and then there was NFLX - probably caught a lot of folks short in this position covering their positions - but the numbers for NFLX were strong and we believe this stock (even though expensive) is going higher. Check out these very interesting charts below. On both these stocks JAZZ and NFLX our trading strategy generated BUY signals yesterday - this strategy is a leading indicator and both stocks JAZZ and NFLX were up today strongly. This feature can be accessed on our site on the stock charts page. The link is www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx - look under Trucharts Trading Strategies under the chart. Amazing buy signals.

Trucharts.com end of weekly blog update - 10/17/2014

Trucharts.com end of week Blog update 10/17/2014

What a week of market gyrations.  It had our head spinning.  We were expecting volatility – but this was nothing we have experienced in the past two years – since the markets (like we stated before) have been going up in a straight line.  The correlation between the Fed balance sheet and the markets has been moving in tandem.  And then the Fed speaks anytime the markets drop – because obviously all the Wall Street guys are concerned about their portfolios dropping and how this will impact the average investor.  Fed governor Bullard spoke and then we had some other Fed governors speak – as soon as that happened the markets jumped and bounced.  It is like a scripted movie – predictable. Bullard (non-voting member fo FOMC) stated that the Fed should keep the bond buying active – wow!! As if the Fed balance sheet is not big enough yet.  It is $4T – yes 4 TRILLION and that has created a bubble in stocks, real estate and every asset.  Bonds had moved higher into this volatility and the VIX spiked to a high of 31+ and then settled the week at 21.99. We expect the VIX to pull back and bring some sense to back for some time into the markets.  There are some interesting charts we have shown below and with comments and trendlines indicated.  We are short IBB still and GM.  We expect NFLX to pull back and since we have earnings coming up from AAPL and many big names next week – we would like to stay on the sidelines and keep our powder dry.  We went long USO even though we think the correction in the OIL/energy sector is not over.  Gold did bounce but the long term chart looks weak.  Gold miners are getting slaughtered.

We have added one of our unique sentiment indicator charts at link:  http://www.trucharts.com/MarketSentiment_ISEE.aspx

This is of VIX vs SPY500 and you can see clearly how the VIX spiked significantly last week.

We have added the charts for LUV (Southwest airlines) – position closed last week.  DAL short closed last week – even though we may retake the short positions in these later.  Our SNDK profit was 150% – Oct 92.5 puts – we bought at $4 and it closed and sold for $10 on Friday expiration.

XLE chart shows breakdown in the energy sector.

QQQ bounced exactly off the 50 week average – see chart below.

The volatility did allow day traders to take advantage of the daily moves in the markets/stocks.  One of our fund manager friend who manages a S&P futures fund made the highest return and the return for the week was a whopping 17% and the YTD  return has been 64% with a hit ratio of 96.5%.

If you are interested in discussing this with our hedge fund manager – please contact us at support@trucharts.com and or at bbhatia@trucharts.com.  Please keep in mind that the minimum investment required is $50K or $100K.  

Here is the weekly return chart for past 32 weeks.  As you can see the return is low when volatility is low – but none the less positive.

        

 

 

 

 

 

Best of luck trading next week;

Trucharts team

Trucharts.com - Markets closing brief - 10/16/2014

Trucharts.com - Markets closing brief - 10/16/2014

The markets had a very volatile day today.  VIX spiked and then pulled back.  We have been saying that the market moves will be exaggerated with VIX flirting with above 20 levels.  Stocks, obviously gyrated between being positive and negative moves - and very wide intraday moves - excellent for day traders if timed correctly.  Biotech stocks were up and down and we need to monitor the closing of these stocks, the markets and indices tomorrow.  Google announced earnings that missed expectations - stock was down after hours.  We are watching oil since it is already in a bear market with a correction of 20%+.  We took a position in USO today for a possible move up from a corrective move - but will require patience.  Stop is at 28 for USO.  

Semiconductor stocks bounced today from a correction move down after SWKS (Skyworks) after making a higher earnings/revenue announcement.  We believe the market is oversold in the short term and we would expect some type of bounce and drop in the VIX.  But we will watch this closely. 

Check out the features on our site like real time news, stock scanner, stock backtest feature, automated buy/sell signals with our trading strategies.  There is a free trial sign up period: check our subscription price and for the price of 3 cups of Starbucks coffee you can get access to our site features.  We will publish our weekly update this weekend.  Here is a chart with our buy/sell signal strategy which shows :the NFLX signal before the carnage. 

We discussed NFLX in our blog 2 days before the huge drop and here is the chart with the red down arrow showing the sell signal right before the carnage.  Carl Icahn could have also saved some headache from this drop :-)...

We are still short GM/IBB and long USO/T.

Trucharts team.

Trucharts.com - Market close Update for 10/15/2014 and NFLX stock

Trucharts.com Blog Update market Close and mr NFLX

Well what a comeback - probably to suck in all the folks - do not get caught in this bull trap - sell into rallies.  Since VIX is up we expect such volatility in the markets.  Major moves up and down.  And here is the story of the day NFLX..  

Stock Charts - Free - Trucharts.com - We mentioned to watch NFLX closely and it is down 100 (yes you read that correctly $100) after hours - their new interface sucks.  We showed the technical chart this week and showed how it was looking weak.. A big Yes for technical analysis..

Trucharts Team