Higher highs as we predicted and stocks for next week - check out the vi...

Check out this video - we discuss the following topics and how we have been predicting higher highs and what to expect along with some of our picks.

See the agenda for the video below:

Key thesis and premise of our analysis and “WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SAYING”

Apr 11, 2021

• RISK IS HIGH – No change to this thesis – Markets are extended
• Markets will hit new highs – As expected – DJIA hit brand new high – As expected - hitting new highs
• March will be volatile – As expected – March was volatile – heading into earnings season now
• Being nimble in trading – still working well – Technicals are working well
• Not an investing but a trading market – No change here except for some big cap names
• Watching your technicals closely – MA’s, MACDs, RSI, CCI, CMF along with volume – Still using same indicators
• Using options for covered call and covered put strategies – Always using this as a good system for better ROI
• One on ones available for $99/hour
• Contact us – truchartscom@gmail.com
• Follow us on twitter - @trucharts

Markets update for the past week

• NASDAQ, DOW JONES and SP500
• From mar 13 - NEW HIGHS – DOW target 32000 – above and beyond now – new target - 35000; 
• NASDAQ holding in congestion/consolidation mode
• Current expectations – Still like DOW stocks – statement from Mar 13 – no change
• 
  
• Trades for next week – Retail stocks worth watching, tech volatile but not investable, Big cap names in DOW rule – same thesis from Mar 13 video
• What is our current investing theme – Trade tech with shorts and short term, and big cap names – seems to be working well
• Some SITE key features revisited
• 
  
• Subscribe to our youtube channel and trucharts.com site – Tradier brokerage

Please consult with your financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Not providing financial advice – just our analysis

Volatile markets in March.. What to expect next week and picks. Bounce c...

Volatile markets in March.. What to expect next week and picks. Bounce expected next week

Topics for this video: 

• Markets update for the past week– NASDAQ,DJIA,QQQ,SPY – Risk is high..!! 
• NEW HIGHS – DOW target 32000; NASDAQ 15000 – Bubble mania – what happened since Feb 13 video
• Current expectations – market oversold
• 
  
• Trades we did – AMAT, AMD, PYPL, DE, ROKU, SPOT was a downer
• Trades for last video – CSX, WYNN, LVS, UNP, AZN, CHWY, MRVL
• What is our current investing theme
• Screener – TCFast Buy and TCFast Sell, RSI scanning
• Spread options example
• 
  
• Trading technically – Why it is critical…when in a trading market
• Subscribe to our youtube channel and trucharts.com site – Tradier brokerage
• Contact us – truchartscom@gmail.com
• Follow us on twitter - @trucharts 
• Please consult with your financial advisor before making investment decisions.
• Not providing financial advice – just our analysis

Weekend video update - check it out - Great picks for next week and some awesome charts

Weekend Video update - Aug 22

 

Things we talk about in the video:

1.Markets update for the past week – DIA,QQQ,SPY,SSO

2.Stocks we picked – DE, AAPL, HD, LOW, housing stocks and predictions (TOL, DHI, KBH)

3.Bank stocks – BAC, JPM,

4.EXPE broke above 200d

5.Dow stocks – CAT,DE,BA,JNJ,

6.AMD, NVDA, ANSS

7.WYNN, AMAT, MU, NXPI, PINS

8.MA examples – PANW, SPOT, IDXX,

9.Call options

10.RSI scanning

11.Software or SAAS stocks NOW, CRWD,ZS,COUP,OKTA and MACD patterns

12.Subscribe to youtube and site

13.Contact us – truchartscom@gmail.com

14.Follow us on twitter - @trucharts

Trucharts.com markets update Jul 12 and stocks to buy for next week. ROKU...

Markets Update for Week of Jul 6th and stocks to buy - Check it out..

Markets and stocks updated for week of Jul 4 - Jul 11..

Also on youtube at:

https://youtu.be/kFDlyY_ghl4

Video update for Jun 27

We present a discussion on the SPY, DIA, Casino stocks, Financial/Bank stocks and present some short ideas. In addition we show a single screener feature using the MACD indicator. Check it out.

https://youtu.be/XitY2aIxf6k

Is Tech Party over Fed and Grandma Yellen, ECB and Grandpa Draghi..

Is the Tech Stock party over??

So did the Fed crash the tech party and the bubble it created - what will it do to other asset bubbles. What will happen in the future with all the debt built up into the system and why have the billionaires become even richer in this cycle. The answer is Greed!! The Fed, ECB and central banks know that there is no way out of this debt cycle and bubble they have created and are responsible for. In the name of trying to save doomed and heavily taxed economies of the world and then making promises they cannot keep, the central banks are in a big bind - keep printing money and grow the debt or try to drain the liquidity. They have boxed themselves into a corner. 

The whole world has now over 280% debt to GDP ratio - Yes over 280% - thanks to Central banks and our crazy fractional banking system. Every nation is going to pay the price and the Fed has tried to perk up stock prices and has created another massive bubble in stocks and housing - it is called lather, rinse, repeat - when will these folks ever learn - that asset bubbles created from such loose monetary policies allow the folks at the top to get even richer and the lower class and middle class really do not get any benefit. Wages are stagnant and all the house buying is supported by elevated stock prices.

So did the Fed finally realize that the end is near.. and that they need to do something to stop their balance sheet from growing - did the ECB just realize that they are also complicit in perpetrating an asset bubble - just take a look at student debt, auto loan debt, and credit card debt just in the US. Consumer debt in UK, Australia and all countries is at exorbitant levels relative to income. Then there is corporate debt which has grown massively while rates have been low - will these go into default - what about the energy sector companies - will these be able to service their debt loads and their dividends?? 

The tech stocks and Nasdaq have had a massive run up and the valuations are at nose bleed levels. All these companies have manipulated earnings by doing stock buybacks and cost adjustments via layoffs and outsourcing. Real revenue growth is evident in very few companies and lot of the semiconductor companies businesses are very cyclical. Many of these stocks - specially like NVDA are trading at multiples given to very speculative companies or IPOs. We are betting heavily against NVDA and believe it is going lot lower. The daily chart shows a climax high on the day it touched its all time high of 168.5. In addition, the chart is parabolic in nature and parabolic charts never end well. We like QCOM as a better investment even though it is in the middle of some lawsuits and fighting the FTC and Apple. But their purchase of NXPI is an awesome addition to their portfolio as NXPI has huge presence in China. We do not believe the true benefits of this acquisition is reflected in the current stock price. NXPIs' RFID technology is omnipresent in China and the rest of the world (ROW) and growing. QCOM has enough cash to keep the dividend payout and if the government decides to change the tax rate on dividends then watch out and all dividend paying stocks will crash. See our video on youtube at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFC5iVaTkQY

So we think the bell on the NASDAQ and the semi stocks. We advise taking profits aggressively. All key indicators of market bullishness are at levels seen only in 1929 and 2007. 2000 bubble mania was higher and was the biggest bubble ever.

DOW stocks are doing well and it appears that energy may be bottoming here. We like CAT, DE and BA (wait to buy this one). The biotech sector still looks good but we would sell JNJ and MRK. Housing stocks look ok. Bonds are down recently - watch these closely.

Futures are pointing to a higher open for Monday Jul 3. This is very typical action prior to Jul 4th holiday. Sell into this rally any tech stocks and take profits. AAPL is still cheap but we would wait to buy at lower prices. We like NKE but keep a stop at 55. Weekly chart looks good. Chart for NKE - www.trucharts.com/stockcharts.aspx?TICK=NKE

Good luck trading. 

B. Bhatia

Founder

Markets Post Xmas hangover, SP500 line in the sand breached and how to prepare for 2016; The movie "The Big Short"

Markets Post Xmas hangover - SP500 line in the sand breached and how to prepare for 2016; 

The movie "The Big Short"

Ok it has been a REALLY long time since I updated my blog. Was out of it for a while for many reasons but suffice to say that I will do my best to keep our readers updated as much as I can on the latest conditions about the happenings in the markets and my predictions.

Well we have had a helluva of a ride in January and thank the Lord we were short. I was expecting some run up into the 1st week but that did not happen. We knew that the 2015 end of the year ramp was a who can beat the next fund manager race and we made money in it while the going was good and then the bottom fell out of the markets - I guess they are saying oil - but we beg to differ - we think oil was one factor but in addition the markets were, and are, still overvalued. We had the standard drop to old support and the standard "W" bounce backup - very textbook pattern and we expect the markets to move up to the 50d SMA coming in from an oversold condition, high bearishness and elevated volatility. Personally I think we are headed lower but for the short term the bulls have the upper hand. And with Grandma Yellen and the Fed out of the way for March - the party is on.. We said short many of our favorites like - IBB, QCOM, AMBA, FIT and many more - we covered a lot of these shorts and are planning to cover some more this week to have some ammo for some short term long trades. We like a paired trade like long AMGN short IBB and writing weekly calls and puts. In addition, BIDU is reporting this week, as is HD. We are looking to go long BIDU and waiting to short HD if their earnings/forecast do not look strong. We think HD is topped out - but we need confirmation that the housing is sort of peaking out here.

I personally believe that the Superbowl 50 was the mark of the super debt and commodity cycle. Gold - our favorite metal did well - but we need to wait for a nice pullback and consolidation. In the end gold is the best currency. As I write this gold is down 20+ and markets are rocking!! We have to see the bears capitulate a little bit before the next leg down. Be nimble..

Now for my rant on politics in the USA - It is the biggest sham ever put in the face of the public. It is such a shame that there is no real leaders in this amazing country where we had folks like Abraham Lincoln and so many more Presidents that made us feel proud to be an American - After George Bush Sr - it has been all downhill - Obama - fuck Obamacare - the worst health care law ever enacted - - we do not live in a free market society - we live in a collusion/cartel of insurance company health care system along with the drug companies - go see how the biotech execs have been cashing out of their stock - mind blowing, to say the least.. Hillary - liar and panderer, Trump Incompetent - no idea what he is talking about or saying, Sanders - Give everything for free and blame the corporations except the fucking government - Cruz - owned by the Big Boys as is Rubio - thank God Jeb is gone, as is Christie - owned by the mafia and even looks like the Mafia and I feel sad for Rand Paul - not that I agree with everything he says - but he was a really good candidate - and the media just keeps giving Trump so much free advertising and you can tell the media is so totally biased with the incessant analysis is way beyond crazy.. Where do people find so much time?? None of the candidates are even worth becoming vice president - much less president. Sad state of affairs for this amazing country - what blows my mind is how people even listen to Hillary talk - she is speaks from both sides of her mouth - saying one thing and at the same time telling herself how stupid the citizens of this country are. It is truly mind boggling. Our votes have no meaning - that is how the whole system is designed. All these debates are just a show and nothing else - Hillary will be president - that is the plan and Trump is part of this whole sham. Noise in the system..

Now for one of the best movies of all time - goes in my top 10 list - "The Big Short" - Please see this movie and it will teach you why sometimes you have to go against the crowd. When we were running our hedge fund ( I wish we had known about the insurance on CDSs') - anyway we were short the housing market - and no one would believe us and they started pulling their money out of our fund. After the crash of 2008-2009 - people agreed that we were right. We see the same state of housing - I know I may be early - but the tell tale signs are there - and it will come crashing again. It is like a double top and that is what I believe we are witnessing - easy credit and easy money printing and bubble blowing by the Fed - Big Ben and then his apparent clueless prodigy Grandma Yellen - what a disaster. The Fed has done nothing, along with the bankers of this country - then ruin the whole economy - it is easy when money is free to print - we are in debt to our eyeballs and yet we act like - no big deal. At the rate we are going - we will cross 20T this year.. States are going to go broke and then the government will too.. Buy gold, land and hoard cash because they are going after our retirement accounts soon.. It is coming - be ready..

Anyway - I am travelling again after a long period of some sickness - in Hong Kong waiting for my flight to India and then going to China on my way back to start a new business venture. I will keep trading as I love it and it is one of my passions.  Do check out our site - we have made many changes and improvements and do subscribe - it helps pay for our self funded developers/server and data charges and keeps us motivated to do more. Not to brag - but I do think we have a very unique site and for the end user we provide some of the best features. We are working on more features and will keep doing so. We have the best buy/sell signals with our proprietary strategies - check these out on the stockcharts page.

Good luck trading and best wishes.

B Bhatia
Founder/CEO trucharts.com

Happy Post Thanksgiving Blog - Markets and where these are headed going into 2016?

Happy Post Thanksgiving Blog - Markets and where these are headed going into 2016?

Started writing the blog in Hong Kong and now continuing to write in Singapore (a truly amazing city - so clean - it is like spotless). Still writing (now from Singapore lounge - Hong Kong airport is soooo much better).. 

Schizophrenic markets controlled by Central Bank speak and driving us crazy.. Down one day and up another just because of Central Banks (specifically Draghi - he is becoming such an annoyance) - Eurzone economy sucks - just suck it up and go home. What a waste of time. Well we had two days of trading on the downside and after the stupid huge ramp on Friday, because of options expiration and Draghi speak, we still expect the markets to stay range bound due to Q4 seasonality and technically weak. Energy stocks are crashing and our theme has been consistent on the energy stocks - stay away from these and our target for oil was between 35-60 - now we are at the low end of this range - tough to say where it goes - commodity complex is crashing and I was told that folks who bought real estate in many places (folks who were in the commodity business) are trying to dump their real estate holdings to pay off debts and get liquid. The COMMODITY boom is way over.. What happens to gold?? This will be tough sledging for gold with rate hikes coming. Negative interest rates in the Eurozone - who ever thought we would have negative interest rates - these are truly amazing times and the printing binge is not ending - then Saudi Arabia just secured financing for the tallest building in the world - Who the fuck wants to live in Saudi Arabia other than the fu%$$ng Arabs in such hot weather and crappy place. Having lived in the Middle East for a long part of my life - I hated every minute of it there. Someone's ego needs to be stoked - Alwaleed Bin Talal!! Ridiculous - this country is going broke and they are worried about tallest building in the world. Such BS..These people will never learn - they are here to just stoke their stupid egos.. 

Finally able to write freely after the stupid censors and blogging restrictions, 2 days of overcoming food poisoning in China - makes you wonder how is this country going to really move into the 21st century if it blocks freedom of speech, gets away with human rights violations and yet we welcome it everywhere - sounds too hypocritical to me. But, the progress in China is unbelievable - they keep on building - i think I counted over 500 cranes (since I was bored) in the taxi from Dongguan to Shenzhen. Crazy. There is no stopping the real estate train in China - not happening..Who knows where and how this will end - but right now it keeps chugging along. Travelled to India on this trip another crazy place with so much traffic, pollution and no control - and yet people keep talking about the Indian economy growing - where - it is predominantly driven by real estate, black money and infrastructure sucks, loans are defaulting and banks keep lending. The world is going crazy with the carry trade and there is no telling what the outcome is going to be. Right now everyone is acting like a drunken sailor and there is non stop money printing going on with no end in sight. Sounds like the good old Roman empire days..Well thanksgiving was great for the markets and black Friday looked good except online buying was even stronger. Then Yellen spoke and we had two down days right after that markets bounced on Draghi speaking.

It is typically a strong part of the year for the markets so you would have to buy the dips here - in strong stocks, typically Q4 is the best performing quarters and with quite a bit of under performance this year for many funds including hedge funds, we would expect a run on stocks going into the end of the year primarily in the big names that are holding the markets up - what we call the Trojan horses - AMZN,NFLX,GOOGL,FB,BIDU,BABA, and many others in this list and also top names that are underperforming this year will be picked up just to show good or at par performance relative to the markets - so our position would be to go net long here in the big names and ULTA also fits into that list. We stated in our previous blogs and on twitter that we liked the tobacco stocks(MO and PM) and LLY. We were net long the market with these stocks and these performed well for us. We have been short puts on YHOO - we like the idea of the sale of the core business - stock could go to 40.

Please do check out our site for our great buy/sell signals - we have been posting the charts on twiiter (follow @trucharts) - we have some amazing buy/sell signal strategies and we followed them for the energy stocks and that saved us a ton of money - specially stocks like SDRl, RIG, XOM, CVX and XLE. 

For 2016, we expect huge challenges for the markets due to lowered earnings and there is lot of technical issues with the markets that do not suggest a higher market - narrow breadth, leadership and overvaluation in many sectors - tech specifically. We would stay in some consumer staples with dividend stocks and stocks which have proven earnings power and options for hedging.  AAPL going into Q1 still looks good - but we would would hedge our position. Watch VIX closely - whenever it shoots to 30 - 40 range - start buying and we would sell biotech here - biotech bubble is over. Good luck trading.

Trucharts Founder/CEO and team
BB

Is the bull run still intact - Markets ended below 50 day? Are you buying or selling? AAPL, NFLX, and the top horsemen

Is the bull run still intact - Markets ended below 50 day SMA? 

Are you buying or selling? 

AAPL, NFLX, Biotech and the top horsemen

What a week - but we ended the week with the market averages closing below their respective 50d SMAs. Looks ominous and then we had 5 days of non stop news of the Chinese Yuan devaluation - we had stated that this was the only option left for the Chinese and we do not think this is the end  the devaluation - the Chinese Yuan is headed to 6.8-7 relative to the USD. The currency is too strong and with the commodities in a complete crash scenario (from the slowdown in the Chinese economy), the Chinese government has to stimulate their exports by driving down the currency - just like all the other nations in the Pacific Rim - look at Japan.  

Markets moved sideways with minor moves up and down but still ended below their critical averages. We have been saying the markets have been going sideways with many 3 digit moves and topping action. Narrow breadth, narrow leadership, big stocks breaking down and a very high number of stocks below their 50d SMAs. Earnings have been lackluster and so have the forecasts. 

Investors and hedge funds are hiding in the high fliers and the consumer discretionary stocks - which are also starting to show some weakness. Some of the auto parts stocks are doing very well because of strong earnings reports. Dividend stocks are performing well due to the obvious benefits - although we think the dividends from the bigger oil players are at high risk of being cut due to the drop in oil prices and falling margins/profits. We would sell all the big oil stocks here if you own them and move money into cash or some other stocks like REITs and some of the other big industrial companies whose earnings look strong or are not affected by the commodity crash. Oil is headed lower and this creates a huge dilemma for the world over and especially the Middle East nations that rely heavily on oil exports for their economies. We are short HAL.

We have been saying to take profits in the tech sector after Micron (MU) and INTC earnings - this seems to have been the perfect call. Earnings were flat and forecasts going forward were lowered and sure enough all the semi stocks are being beaten down. We were short BABA into the earnings report, along with IBM - both of these shorts worked well for us. Sell AAPL and TXN. We are still short AMBA and SWKS and are looking to short MU.

Now let us look at the Biotech sector - especially the ETF IBB - it closed below the 13 week SMA for the first time in over 15 months and is starting to show technical weakness. We were short and did make money on some of our short calls and short puts. We are still staying short the IBB ETF and expect support for the short term at 50 week SMA at around 340. We think this could be the short of the century (our opinion entirely). Here is the chart:

You can clearly see support at the 50 week SMA.

We still do like AMGN - one of the only high dividend paying stocks in this sector. We would wait to go long AMGN.

We still like the REITs even though we think interest rates are going higher primarily the apartment REITs - with rents going through the roof - we think this will force the Fed to raise rates - rent is one of the components of the inflation index.

We expect the markets to test the 13 weeks SMA this week - around 17800 for the DOW and with the Greek Bailout approved by the Greek parliament - we would expect to see some bounce in the markets. 

Check the weekly charts with 13 week, 50 week, 100 week and 200 week SMA for all the indices on our site - you can use the big charts page at: http://www.trucharts.com/bigcharts.aspx

We have shown here below amazing results from our backtest strategy for IBB using the SMA cross with 14 day exit for 2000 bars - it showed a profit of over 211% - Amazing - we have the the snapshot below for part of the runs - an amazing number of profitable trades, just run the backtest feature and you can see for yourself with the numbers on the left hand side in the snapshot below.

Here is a chart of stock TRMB with our automated buy/sell strategy showing clear buy/sell signals on a weekly chart - a feature that is only offered on our site - to registered members only. This automated buy/sell signal could have made you money and saved you a lot of grief. I hate to say it - we do not believe in buy and hold - that is for sissies.

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team

Is the bull run over or is it just a correction? AAPL, Biotech, Industrials - what and where are the markets headed in this swoon?

Is the bull run over or is it just a correction? 

AAPL, Biotech, Industrials - what and where are the markets headed in this swoon?

Trucharts.com - Weekly Blog update

Hi to all our readers and viewers. We did not publish a blog last weekend due to some family commitments. 

Finally got back to the markets and sure enough - excitement all week - DOW was down seven days in a row. The Dow Jones, AAPL, NASDAQ, BIOTECH, Technology, Semi-Stocks and many indices were down for the week. Oil crashing, commodities crashing, China markets down (over $4T valuation wiped out), gold was down - then bounced, earnings were spotty and big energy stocks are being abandoned. With oil crashing, energy companies margins and earnings will be headed downwards. 

Narrow breadth and leadership in the markets were the key points we discussed in our previous blogs as being the indicators and signs of a topping market. We had several huge 3 digit moves and these type of moves are very characteristic nature of topping markets and this is exactly what we were observing. We had also indicated through our facebook and twitter page to sell into any rallies or going short certain stocks. 

A fight between the bull and the bears and short covering were driving stocks like CMG,GOOG,AMZN,NFLX and the top horsemen of the markets higher. The DOW component stocks are being hammered down and we think the DOW has definitely topped out. Revenue growth in companies in the S&P500 were unimpressive and EPS were primarily inline and forecasts were either lower or inline. We will have to wait to see how this plays out. We had also indicated to be short the semiconductor stocks after the INTC and MU earnings report and this played out very favorably for us. We are still short INTC,AMBA and SWKS. QRVO news was terrible and many other companies reported inline and their forecasts were below analyst estimates. We think this will impact AAPL earnings next quarter - the Apple watch and Apple Pay are also not performing well. We prefer to be short the AAPL suppliers and would lighten up on any technology positions on any rallies in this sector.

Now the Biotech stocks - these are the stocks that have helped the NASDAQ run upto new highs (eclipsing it's old high from the 2000 bubble). These are starting to show signs of fatigue from the huge run-ups and for the first time in over a year the IBB etf closed below it's 13 week SMA. We need to see it stay below this 13 week SMA for another week and if it does, we can expect it to go the 50 week SMA at around 320. We are short IBB. We are also seeing some stocks in this sector dropping from their bubbly highs. 

We had to close our TWTR position - we think this stock is headed lower. We had hedged the position with puts so we were able to handle the loss. We went long NFLX.

The averages have definitely broken some trendlines along with some major averages - we think this a bad sign and expect some volatility in August going into the September Fed meeting. Jobs report this past week was 215K but that was still above what we call a critical threshold of 200K jobs per month. Real estate is in a bubble mode and as are stocks and both these sectors will have to correct - stocks are already correcting and it is definitely a stock picker's market.  

UPDATE: We forgot to mention the number of new highs has been contracting sharply and therefore stocks hitting new lows is rising. Media stocks tanked last week and many of these broke major trendlines, and there has been major insider selling in all stocks. These are all signs that we have topped out after this 7 year bull market run. We would highly advise to take profits and sell any rallies.

As for China - the country is now in control of their markets - but we think this will be a futile exercise and the country is mired in over capacity, high debt, real estate bubble and still has a strong currency - we think they need to devalue the Yuan to gain over their rivals in the Asian subcontinent. Shadow banking is a huge problem in China and we have to see how the party handles the situation and not letting the markets run freely.

Let us see some of the charts we have discussed above along with the indices charts:

1. AAPL Chart support at 105 - expect a bounce after MACD and RSI turn. Short.
2. DOW Jones support at around 17000
3. IBB headed to around 330-350 range - Short
4. NASDAQ support at 50 week SMA.
5. NFLX still looking strong
6. SPY - support at 50 week SMA

 

 

 


Interesting articles for reading this week:

http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/93862/why-china-extremely-vulnerable-now
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-08/12-trillion-fat-finger-how-glitch-nearly-crashed-global-financials-system-true-story
http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/legionnaires-outbreak-new-york-city-bill-de-blasio/2015/08/07/id/669061/
http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-dragon-losing-shine-foreign-firms-035151394.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/buck-wargo/boomerang-kids_b_7912484.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/150-watch-terrifying-apple-luxury-184402938.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/made-by-china-is-what-chinese-consumers-want-now-2015-8?r=UK&IR=T
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/irresistible-china-stock-trade-keeps-160001314.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-producer-prices-slide-to-six-year-low-in-july-2015-8
http://www.businessinsider.com/factset-q3-eps-estimates-sp-500-prices-2015-8
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-worlds-seventh-largest-economy-is-in-a-downward-spiral-2015-8

Good luck trading.

Trucharts Team

Positioning your portfolio - Summer 2015 and Markets Direction - Blog Trucharts.com

Trucharts.com - Market positioning and where markets are for the summer - Blog Update for Week ending 6/19/2015

Well we guess by now you are all used to the volatility and jerky moves in the markets for the past few weeks. Markets that move sideways for a long period of time are either topping, consolidating, and what we call confused markets. For the past several weeks, we have been seen these wild 3 digit moves up and down and primarily the markets holding the 18000 for the DOW, 2100 for SP500 and now 5100+ for the NASDAQ. This has been occuring every single week. The Russell 2000 hit a new high as did the NASDAQ and everyone is ready to party like its 1999. 

Market pundits are trying to justify why the market valuations are low compared to 2000 - but some of their points sound absurd. Granted there are companies with good earnings and low PE ratios - but these are few and far between. Zero rates from the Fed, market speculators, big firms and heavy stock buybacks are the reasons driving this market and we have shown several examples of charts that look like exponential chart patterns. With everyone chasing performance and yield, stocks have been the only game in town and therefore we are seeing astronomical valuations for many companies - especially in biotech and stocks that are up for no reason (check the charts for stocks (for last 7 years period) like UHAL Chart; SHW chart; AMBA chart; IBB chart; REGN chart and many others. 

Here are the charts for DIA chart, SPY chart, IWM chart and QQQ chart from the week ending 6/19. You can see the DIA and SPY have not broken out yet and based on the market internals, we are seeing some fundamental weakness in the Industrial stocks, Utility stocks and the individual DOW component stocks - just check here the DOW 30 stocks with the mouseover charts feature: here is the link - DOW 30 stocks - check each chart and you will see how each of these stocks are doing currently.  

As we write, futures are up as Greece is trying to avoid printing drachmas and stay within the Euro zone. This is like the never ending story - it is like a soap opera - with the Greek Prime minister and the finance minister playing lead roles and the Germans are getting tired of it - but do not have a choice but to deal with it.

What should you be doing now: 

We would take a very defensive posture here and take some profits in profitable positions and sell some covered calls, and to protect downside risk with buying some puts on your positions - maybe 10% below (strike price) the current price - these are cheap, knowing that the volatility (VIX) is low and the puts would be cheap insurance. We typically hedge our positions as long and short and try to keep our portfolio balanced. We definitely still think there is risk here on the downside. 

NASDAQ is being hitting new highs primarily because it is being driven by the biotech stocks. These stocks may still go higher, but as they do, so does the risk. In addition, many new IPOs are healthcare related and biotech focused. We would be wary of trading these - unless you have the stomach or risk profile to handle volatile stocks. 

From a stock perspective, we are long BIDU, CYBR, Z, TWTR - we like MO, PM here for short term trades. We missed BTI at 104 (major support). We are short AMBA, and INTC.    
Here is a recap of some of the interesting articles we liked and have provided the links here:

What is the meaning of a "dry-bubble" to VCs?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-17/silicon-valleys-fantastic-dry-bubble

China bubble news:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-20/so-you-think-you-are-rich

California Drought:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-18/california-has-never-experienced-water-crisis-magnitude-%E2%80%93-and-worst-yet-come

TSMC and AAPL news - very interesting read and outlook on semi stocks:

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2015/06/18/even-apple-cant-save-tsmc/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

Till next week. 

Good luck trading.

Watch these charts closely this week..

Trucharts.com Blog Week ending 6/12/2015:

Watch these things and charts closely this week..

We did not have a chance to write a complete weekly blog last week due to some family emergencies. Finally got over these and now back to writing and watching and trading the markets this week. 

We are sure you must have been noticing the past few weeks how the big market players have been holding the DOW at 18000, SP500 at 2100 and the NASDAQ at 5000 - rigging - you have to wonder. Every week (for the past six weeks), there has been at least one day a week for a positive 3 digit move in the markets and then we have several - what we call - consolidation days - and then we have had news on Greece everyday impacting the moves in the indices. It is becoming like a same story different day.. Still there has been no resolution on the Greece situation, and then we are seeing some news today that the Greeks have not come forth with a solution that pleases the IMF and the Eurozone. Let us see how this unfolds.

Now back to our markets and China - an amazing bubble brewing there in the markets. A billionaire is made everyday and the three drop out due to improper financial conduct by their respective companies - just take a look at Hanergy as an example. 

We think the underlying fundamentals are weak and many stocks are exhibiting weak technicals, and in addition, we think the tech stocks are looking weak. We strongly recommend taking profits in this sector.

Here are some charts from our markets we are watching closely this week. Keep an eye on the 13 week SMA, the 50 week SMA and the 100 week SMA. Amazing support levels for all the ETFs below.

Charts Weekly: 

Check the chart for:

CVX at critical support - we think this could go to 90.
DIA going to 50 week SMA?
IBB at 13 week SMA - still looking good - still not closing below 13 week SMA.
IWM - Russell 2000 ETF - still strong
MMM - heading to 50 week SMA - should be a good buy point for a bounce
SPY- at week SMA - great support here.
TXN - at 50 week SMA - looking weak - may bounce here
XLK ETF - technology starting to show weakness. (See INTC chart below)

 

 

 

 

 

We are long BIDU,CYBR,TWTR,Z, and short AEM,AMBA. Closed DTEA, LLY and UA this week for a good profit.  

IPOs to watch this week: Fitbit - Wednesday - FIT.

Critical earnings this week:

Adobe Systems (ADBE), FedEx FDX, Oracle (ORCL), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Kroger (KR), CarMax (KMX), and KB Home (KBH), DTEA on Tuesday.

Check out our special subscription offer - just $90 for the whole year. The best deal of any technical and stock charting website on the web. Here is the link: 
http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx

Check out the results of our backtest feature - the fastest on the web: This is for IBB ETF with a 8 SMA crosses 12 SMA and exit is 11 days after crossover - the short needs to be optimized - but the long strategy shows a 174% return.

Markets Direction - Up or Down? Where are we headed? Trucharts.com Blog Update

Markets Direction - Up or Down? Where are we headed? Weekend Blog Update week ending 5/29/15

We have not had a chance to do a weekend update due to the jet lag from travel and other pressing matters. Finally getting some time to put my thoughts down related to the markets from the past 3 weeks and heading into the summer session.

Well NASDAQ hit a new high, markets moved higher and many earnings were reported. Avago bought Broadcom - a $37B acquisition (we think they paid too much - almost 5.5x sales) and then we have Intel buying ALTR this week - from an earnings we had HD, LOW and many other companies that reported earnings in the past couple of weeks. ULTA also reported but the stock reversed after reporting its earnings as did HD. There is talk of additional mergers in the semi company space - here are the companies that we think are ripe for consolidation - MXIM, IDTI, TXN, SLAB, MCHP, ADI, NVDA, AMD, SWKS, MRVL, XLNX, AMBA and probably many others we are missing.  Keep an eye on these stocks. NXPI, AVGO, INTC and other big semi companies would be possible acquirers. With the AVGO and BRCM merger - the merged company will be the 3rd largest semiconductor company after INTC (1) and QCOM (2).

Our drug stock picks LLY, MYL and TEVA still holding strong. The biotech sector has been holding the NASDAQ up and we expect that this sector will eventually fall - we just cannot predict when - there is technical weakness in the ETFs in the biotech sector.

We are very concerned about the underlying weakness in the markets - structurally. We are seeing many stocks breaking down in the DOW and S&P500. In addition, stocks are reversing after reporting earnings - check HD, ULTA. Housing stocks are dropping - indicating that the markets are anticipating rate hikes from the Fed. We think the Fed sees an asset bubble and are being left with no choice but to start raising the Fed funds rate. Housing prices are moving up. unemployment is down to 5.3%, homes on the west coast are selling at prices higher than asking - and this has been the longest period for the rates being at near zero - now close to 6+ years and over the past week we posted an article on FB and G+ where Byron Wein discusses how the Fed has pumped over $3T into the markets - we concur. And then we see this article over the weekend:

- http://finance.yahoo.com/news/robert-shiller-bubble-element-were-140322037.html 

All these are pointing to over valuation in the markets and the complacency is remarkable. The VIX was down last week and we expect this to spike higher in the coming weeks. We stated that we would take profits here and hedge positions with calls and puts. Adding some shorts is in our plan for the coming week.  We are long BIDU, TWTR, Z (all hedged with covered calls) and are looking to short MSFT, and possibly IBM. 

Just take a look at the stocks that popped on our sell signal strategy here:Just sort the page by volume from highest to lowest by clicking on the volume column twice: 

http://www.trucharts.com/FilteredStocks.aspx?ConditionId=8174,8175,8176

Watch for our regular daily posts and positions updates on Twitter and FB.

Again - watch the Greek situation, China stock bubble, and sell here to take some profits and wait for a better opportunity.

Good luck trading. Check out our special subscription rates and we offer the best feature set on the web for our lowest subscription rates - here is the link: 

http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx

Do checkout our backtest feature - it is the fastest on the web and ummatched by any site.

Link is: Backtest feature - play with it and you can use it to try some paper trades.

Please help by spreading the word of our site.

Trucharts founder and team

Stock Market 5/28 - Midday Update Tuesday - Trucharts.com -

Midday Market update: 5/27

Stocks are bouncing back from the drop yesterday post Memorial day holiday from a possible buy the dip philosophy and possible Greece solution. 

We doubt this move/rally and would look to sell into rallies and take profits - NASDAQ is up from the biotech stock moves and some tech stocks. We like $DE, $BIDU and went long $TIF today. Stocks getting hammered are $WDAY, $KORS and $SHAK.  We like $MO and the tobacco stocks for their dividends and would look to go long. Short gold for now.

Markets look extended still and volatility is still low. Oil is dropping. Watch SVXY and VXX.

BIDU and TEVA update

Updates on our picks - Trucharts.com - 

Stock Chart(s) Free - Trucharts.com - MACD Chart - Charting, Technical Analysis, Hot Stocks, Real time Stock news:

We had picked BIDU and TEVA yesterday - both of these are up today - BIDU is up over $3 and TEVA is up over $1.25. We expect markets to be volatile next week post Memorial day weekend. We would sell into rallies - take some profits here.

Trucharts Team

We made over 18% in three weeks? What did you trade?

Trucharts.com Blog week ending 4/24/2015

Free Stock Chart(s), Technical Screener, MACD Charts, Scanner, Real Time Stock News, Stock Patterns, Stock Quotes, Portfolio Management, Earnings Calendar and more:

Well the stock markets have been going through a nice up trend with this earnings season in full force. Stocks in many sectors were rocking and not so in some sectors. The technology semiconductor sector looks like it has topped out in earnings - check how AVGO, NXPI, TXN (reported earnings and tanked) and many others are pointing to a slowdown in this sector. We were short SMH and recommending shorting NXPI and AVGO in our last blog. We would stay short SMH.

In addition, next week we have the moment of the quarter earnings from AAPL on Monday and then TWTR on the 29th (and BIDU also). FB (Facebook) earnings did not look strong and we still do not like FB due to its valuation. Google stock moved, primarily due to short covering. AMZN was a blowout - unfortunately we think here it is expensive here - even though it may move higher. The earnings will keep going this week and you can check the earnings calendar for your stock on our stockview page in the data box and on our earnings calendar page at: Earnings Calendar.

Here is a stock we talked about shorting and looks like a great candidate for short - please always hedge your position by buying an out of the money call. We always hedge our positions. Stock is IPGP and here is the chart:

Stock is closed below 13d and 50d SMA - target would be 85 and below.




















Gold got killed last week but we think this is going to be range bound from $1100 to $1200 and we will keep a close eye on this. Some commodity stocks did well this past week - check out RS, VALE.

Markets are still trending higher - we think there is a chance for a breakout here and we have to see if there is follow through. Chinese markets are on a roll - bubble brewing but not over yet.

Now how did we make 18% - we traded TWTR stock - TWTR has been range bound between 49 and 53 and we bought the stock for 3 weeks in a row and wrote the covered calls for each of those weeks, since TWTR has weekly options. We traded 400 share blocks and our investment was $10000 and our net profit was $1800. Total return - 18%. We are still long TWTR and plan to stay long into earnings - we think TWTR is beating FB (facebook) and is growing now. We will write covered calls for next week May 1st - Friday for part of our position.  Anyway - I wil be traveling this week and will still try to publish and update the blog next weekend. Check out our site for excellent real time stock news and excellent features like mouseover charts/automated buy and sell signals for any stock which you will find on no other sites. We charge the lowest subscription fee for full access to our site. We need your support and we have been providing actual trades and the best picks for the last 6 months - all for free.

What will you trade this week? We like these stocks...

Trucharts.com Blog - Updated - week ending - 4/10/2015

What will you trade this week? We like these stocks...

A hectic week and now the earnings train will come to town this week. So many earnings, and we can expect, very likely a lot of surprises and disappointments - we love Wall Street - they have been lowering the earnings estimates and then it is very likely that the company will beat the lowered estimates and everyone looks like a hero - the CEO, the analyst, CNBC and news guys love surprises. Is it going to be a train wreck or a smooth ride - what is the Q2 forecast going to be like - these are the questions we need to think about.

In the background we have the Euro dropping, oil moving higher and gold also. The European markets are ripping and now the experts are predicting if the British pound is going to drop thereby driving British stock market higher - well we are in a currency war now. The Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets are on an exponential move and we had pointed to an article on our twitter post  https://www.twitter.com/trucharts) about how housewives in China are now playing in the Chinese and Hong Kong markets. This is not about to end yet - bubbles do not end abruptly - these end when everyone on the streets, including your barber, is talking about stocks. So, still a ways to go.  

Well let us see our markets - the biotech sector bounced perfectly off its 50d SMA average, as did many of the biotech stocks. The DOW, and SP500 are exhibiting a wedge pattern, which seems to be pointing that the markets may breakout here. The NASDAQ which is primarily being driven by the biotech stocks seems to be forming a right shoulder - check the charts on our home page.

Well what will you trade this week - the tech stocks - the big industrials - check the earnings calendar on our site at: (http://www.trucharts.com/EarningsView.aspx) - additionally, we show the date on the stock charts page as shown below (see red marked box on the right corner):

We are going to close our AEM position and SNDK.

Well what stocks are we going to trade: Here are our picks - be mindful of the earnings dates:

We closed BIDU and TWTR in one account - but here are the charts we like this week:

1. www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=CAT - earnings are on 4/23 - but the chart looks 

    excellent

2. www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=TWTR - earnings are on 4/28 - we like TWTR

3. www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=XOM

4. www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=USO  - ETF - has a good chart

5. www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=LLY

We had picked MYL, TEVA, LLY, ABBV, LO, RAI and M in our last blog and all of these did very well. We still like LLY (watch earnings date).

Check out our best rates for subscribing to our site at - we offer the best feature set on the web: http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx

Best of luck trading.

Trucharts Team