Fed testimony, Markets, Tech Stocks and Backtest feature on our site

Fed testimony, Markets, Tech Stocks and Backtest feature on our site

LATEST UPDATE: Yellen dovishness sparked huge market move and tech stocks came off oversold conditions. Revenue growth is not there - but we are in bubble mode. We like the following pair trade - Long NFLX calls, Short NVDA. VIX is at all time low and volume in markets is also low - therefore the grind higher. Keep tight trailing stops. SP500 is going to 2500 and DOW to 22000. No stopping this bubble - we like also KLAC and AMAT. BA was our top pick and we still like it.

Brief update on the markets and Yellen testimony. 

Well looks like the squirrel went back into its hole - Yellen and the central bankers are now clueless as to what to do - one moment they are hawkish and then the next two weeks they become dovish. They are so scared now to raise rates, that they have just completely given up. They talked about reigning in the monetary stimulus via draining liquidity from the system by selling their assets on their huge balance sheet of over $4T - loaded with mortgage backed securities. They want to start this in September and increase that as they go along. In addition, Grandma Yellen also indicated that she may not be raising rates (of course that would increase our debt burden) T aggressively - the markets rocked up in a straight line, dollar crashed but gold was up slightly. Basically the Fed is saying we do not care about the bubbles, asset valuations and whatever else the loose monetary policy has unleashed in asset bubbles around the world. Case in example - do you know that the Indian stock market is up over 1000% - yes 1000% - in 14 years - no one is mentioning that the Indian banks are drowning in NPLs - but yet the market is up over 1000%. PEs and company valuations in the US are at levels not seen since the 2000 and 2007 heights and moving higher. But the central banks do not care as this is making the rich richer and the goal is to make the average guy feel richer. Nasdaq is out performing and we are heading into earnings season for Q2 - we will have to wait and see how the companies manipulate their results using financial engineering and stock buybacks etc. Oil has been crashing - we had predicted that and we will have to wait and see how that plays out. Tech stocks are rocking and rolling like there is no bound to valuations and PEs - sounds like the 1999-2000 bubble times (i remember those days very distinctly). FAANG stocks are rocking and we like NFLX and AMZN. FB is breaking out and we need to watch carefully where it goes. We like BABA, QCOM, BA, CAT, LLY, AAPL and are short NVDA. Airline stocks like UAL are about to breakout and rail stocks along with defense stocks look good. Even though there may be issues with the valuations etc., these do not matter as we are in full bubble mode - in Bay area people are over bidding on houses by over 350K with multiple offers - exactly like 1999. We expect this to continue. In addition, we are not seeing any real technical weakness in the markets other retail and oil stocks. We also like EEM as merging markets are doing well.

Always put a stop limit loss of 5% to 10% below 50d SMA to limit your loss or gains in case there is a crash. Check these values on weekly charts also - like 13 week and 20 week SMA.

Also spend your time to learn how to trade options - it helps to reduce and improve your portfolio risk and return.

Do read the following: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-13/global-stocks-hit-new-all-time-high-after-dovish-yellen-strong-chinese-trade-data

There is a very unique feature on our site - call backtest and we use it for checking certain technical analysis parameters for many stocks to see which yield the best winning results. Here is an example for stock Facebook or FB and you can see one of our trading strategies generated a buy signal on 7/7 and the results showed that this was a very strong signal for FB and it yielded 7 winners and 1 losing trade. So there was a very high probability that the signal would yield to higher prices and sure enough the stock moved over $8 in 3 days to 159. See the snippet of the testing below:

It is tested over 600 trading bars and the results are amazing. We will be restricting use of this to paid subscribers only very soon and you have a chance to test it out. You can also check out our videos on youtube - links are on our site - www.trucharts.com.

Good luck trading.

Do you buy or sell now!! Markets where are they headed for Q4 and our favorite stocks - Trucharts.com Blog week ending 10/9/2015

Trucharts.com Blog - week ending 10/09/2015

Do you buy or sell now!! Markets where are they headed for Q4 and our favorite stocks - Trucharts.com Blog week ending 10/9/2015

Well the title says it all - what do you do now that we have had this wonderful rally this week - the move (to us was expected) has been decent and we had stated the markets would move higher after the retest and elevated VIX. So now the VIX is trending down, material stocks have been up, gold has been moving up, right after the Fed announcement and energy moved higher. Markets moved higher as junk bond yields recovered from an oversold condition - be mindful - there is a very high correlation between JNK (etf) and the markets. This is the correlation related to the appetite for riskier assets - specially high yield junk bonds. Based on the charts for DIA and SPY - included here below - we expect the markets to go higher as technicals are still trending higher - see the MACD, RSI and the 200d SMA looks like where we could be headed which would be 17500 for DJIA and 2050 for the S&P500 - these would pose as high resistance for the indices and huge overhead supply. We believe this is just a bounce from an oversold condition with weakening fundamentals, remember earnings drive stock prices. But there are signs of bubbles everywhere and we would be taking profits and sell into the rallies.

Here are weekly charts for DIA and SPY:

 

Now we are heading into the earnings season for Q3 and forecasts for Q4 - we will have to see what the companies say. From FACTSET news we learned that it would be the first quarter since 2009 for back to back declining earnings quarter over quarter. In addition, FACTSET noted that forward P/E is around 15.9 vs average of 14.1 (5 year). We expect big declines in energy sector along with impact to companies earnings with global exposure due to strong dollar. Well Ms Yellen is going to make it easier by driving down the dollar with the Fed's non stop money printing and ZIRP. We have deleted the earnings calendar and estimates from our site due to very low usage. We will try to see if we can get this data from some other providers. You can check our realtime news page which has an earnings section and dates for reporting.

If you own a position in TSLA - please be mindful - this stock on weekly chart looks like it headed a lot lower and has formed a nice topping pattern. It is at a very critical juncture - the 100 week SMA. Here is the chart:

Charts for gold miners and GLD are looking good for the short term - trend is higher - good for some short term trading. See chart for GLD here - not convincing enough for me. Volume is not strong - but looks like it could go to 50w SMA around 113.

Here is a chart for BABA - we went long at 62.7 based on the buy signal from our site and will close the position soon - very likely this week. As you can see the buy signal was strong and stock is still heading higher - a very unique feature from our site. Please read DISCLAIMERS on our site and our site policies. We always strongly recommend you do your own due diligence and if have never invested in stocks - these are very speculative stocks and trading inherently is not for the risk averse. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions - our recommendations are meant for seasoned traders and experienced professionals.

Please make sure you are aware of holdings in your portfolio and the earnings reporting date - this is available in Yahoo and buy some cheap protection via puts maybe 10% below the current stock price - to limit your risk.

We were also long MO and plan to stay long - strong chart and did a breakout on this past week to a new high from a consolidation pattern.

Now on to our favorite stocks for trading this week and ones we will be taking positions in. These are the stocks we will be trading this week:

http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=VRX
http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=LLY
http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=MO
http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=YUM
http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=AAL

Please take some time reviewing these charts above and monitor these stocks. There are many others but we try to limit our choices to what we think have the highest probability of making money.

Please also take some time to review our site and do subscribe - as we said for all the services we provide, we know we offer the best value for money. We cannot survive if we do not have paying subscribers and we need your support to make the site a sustaining entity. People do not work for free and we do not get anything for free. But our users use our site entirely free and do not take advantage of what we truly offer to help you make money in stocks. 

Again your support is very critical - it is a mere $9 per month. If you cannot afford that then please do not trade stocks. You pay that much in commission and will very likely lose money also.

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team and Founder/CEO

Weekly Blog - Fed Decision on rates this week - What to expect and Market Action - What to buy/sell?

Fed Decision on rates this week - What to expect and Market Action

The Fed week is finally upon us. What is the Fed going to do - the grind and the news is unstoppable - it is discussed on every financial channel and news and now we have the heads of financial institutions and governments asking the Fed not to raise rates - really, now we need these knee jerk morons who have made a killing in the markets because of bubbles from the Fed's own making and decisions, to ask the Fed not to raise rates. I have never seen moments such as the ones we are seeing now or ever, since I started trading the markets over 20 years ago. This is unprecedented in its nature and irresponsible with even the IMF and EU asking the Fed publicly not to raise rates. Well, with over 5.5M job openings, the lowest rate of labor participation, unemployment rate at 5.1%, and Fed balance sheet at $4T - bubbles in stock markets, real estate - these morons want the Fed not to raise rates!! We think the Fed is in a corner (as we said before) and is scared to even budge on rates. The incessant speculation from the CNBS'ers (on purpose) and the non-stop blabber on Bloomberg is really annoying and frustrating - not a single person really knows what is going to happen - OK, we are going to say rates are not going up this week and the Fed will keep the same language - we may be wrong, but, at least we are not going to be blabbering all day about it. Expect volatility around the bonds, US dollar and gold when the Fed decision is announced.

Ok, let us get to the markets now - what do we expect to happen this week - Markets were up on Friday - as we said the markets have never been down on any 9/11 after the event. We expected that and were prepared for it. We are balanced in our portfolio short and long. We are short some semi stocks and overvalued companies and expect these to still move lower - we closed our AMBA short for a nice tidy profit. We were short AMBA from $115. We still think the stock is headed lower. We closed part of our short in MU, GPRO and shorted FIT.

We are long NFLX and BIDU,CYBR,MBLY. We know these are not exactly what we would like in our portfolio at this juncture - but we hedge these with options. The VIX is still trending down and based on our analysis this week from the markets and stocks on Friday, we expect the markets to head higher into the Fed decision day - very likely it will be volatile due to uncertainty from the Fed. 

Do not forget - this is options expiration week and end of quarter for Calendar Q4 and we will be heading into earnings season for Q3 and expect a bunch of surprises and warnings. We saw several charts that look like good trades heading into the Fed rate decision day on Thursday. Charts that look good on charts are shown here (as much as we hate biotech sector - it did not close below our 50week SMA and is tredning higher for the short term - we are short IBB and will likely have to roll that position out into the Oct expiration). Stocks that are looking good for trading are - AAPL,DIS,MCD,CAH,RH,ILMN,GILD and some other biotech stocks. You can check this report on our Market Reports page - here are the links (you can skim the charts quickly with our mouse-over chart feature):

1. Stocks with Buy signals
2. Stocks which close $2 or higher

Here are some of the charts we like for trading this coming week - 

 

 

 

Good luck trading.

Trucharts Team/Founder/CEO

Markets - UP UP and UP. VIX getting clobbered and OIL up..

Markets - UP UP and UP. VIX getting clobbered and OIL up..

Markets are up significantly for the past two days and have recovered over 1000 points on the DOW. Running into some resistance here.  We expected the markets to bounce and were long some high beta stocks like NFLX, NTES and SWKS. We think the markets will stay around this level into next week. We went long BIDU for short term trade and sold/hedged our shorts with some puts and calls. We like the markets heading into tomorrow and would stay long knowing the VIX is coming down. We said pay heed to the VIX since it had exploded on Monday - and sure enough - it worked - wish we had enough cash to had bought some of the big stocks that got clobbered on Monday - we are long NFLX and MBLY. Looks like Fed made some statements regarding rates in Sept and ETF FXI looks oversold.. Always hedge.. 

Oil is up over 8% today - was way oversold - we still think it will bounce for short term here but long term the trend is still down. 

Check out our subscription page at: (we offer the lowest subscription rate for the best feature set of any site on the web) :

http://trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx

Stay nimble in trading.

Good luck.

Trucharts.com team

Markets Direction - Up or Down? Where are we headed? Trucharts.com Blog Update

Markets Direction - Up or Down? Where are we headed? Weekend Blog Update week ending 5/29/15

We have not had a chance to do a weekend update due to the jet lag from travel and other pressing matters. Finally getting some time to put my thoughts down related to the markets from the past 3 weeks and heading into the summer session.

Well NASDAQ hit a new high, markets moved higher and many earnings were reported. Avago bought Broadcom - a $37B acquisition (we think they paid too much - almost 5.5x sales) and then we have Intel buying ALTR this week - from an earnings we had HD, LOW and many other companies that reported earnings in the past couple of weeks. ULTA also reported but the stock reversed after reporting its earnings as did HD. There is talk of additional mergers in the semi company space - here are the companies that we think are ripe for consolidation - MXIM, IDTI, TXN, SLAB, MCHP, ADI, NVDA, AMD, SWKS, MRVL, XLNX, AMBA and probably many others we are missing.  Keep an eye on these stocks. NXPI, AVGO, INTC and other big semi companies would be possible acquirers. With the AVGO and BRCM merger - the merged company will be the 3rd largest semiconductor company after INTC (1) and QCOM (2).

Our drug stock picks LLY, MYL and TEVA still holding strong. The biotech sector has been holding the NASDAQ up and we expect that this sector will eventually fall - we just cannot predict when - there is technical weakness in the ETFs in the biotech sector.

We are very concerned about the underlying weakness in the markets - structurally. We are seeing many stocks breaking down in the DOW and S&P500. In addition, stocks are reversing after reporting earnings - check HD, ULTA. Housing stocks are dropping - indicating that the markets are anticipating rate hikes from the Fed. We think the Fed sees an asset bubble and are being left with no choice but to start raising the Fed funds rate. Housing prices are moving up. unemployment is down to 5.3%, homes on the west coast are selling at prices higher than asking - and this has been the longest period for the rates being at near zero - now close to 6+ years and over the past week we posted an article on FB and G+ where Byron Wein discusses how the Fed has pumped over $3T into the markets - we concur. And then we see this article over the weekend:

- http://finance.yahoo.com/news/robert-shiller-bubble-element-were-140322037.html 

All these are pointing to over valuation in the markets and the complacency is remarkable. The VIX was down last week and we expect this to spike higher in the coming weeks. We stated that we would take profits here and hedge positions with calls and puts. Adding some shorts is in our plan for the coming week.  We are long BIDU, TWTR, Z (all hedged with covered calls) and are looking to short MSFT, and possibly IBM. 

Just take a look at the stocks that popped on our sell signal strategy here:Just sort the page by volume from highest to lowest by clicking on the volume column twice: 

http://www.trucharts.com/FilteredStocks.aspx?ConditionId=8174,8175,8176

Watch for our regular daily posts and positions updates on Twitter and FB.

Again - watch the Greek situation, China stock bubble, and sell here to take some profits and wait for a better opportunity.

Good luck trading. Check out our special subscription rates and we offer the best feature set on the web for our lowest subscription rates - here is the link: 

http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx

Do checkout our backtest feature - it is the fastest on the web and ummatched by any site.

Link is: Backtest feature - play with it and you can use it to try some paper trades.

Please help by spreading the word of our site.

Trucharts founder and team

Jobs? Jobs? - what happened and what will the Fed do now??

Free Stock Chart - Trucharts.com - Technical Analysis, Predefined Scans, Screener.


JOBS JOBS and JOBS:

We are getting some good rest today from markets being closed for good Friday - but the job news for month of March was terrible - only 126000 jobs created versus the estimate of 248000 (BTW - that, as you can see, is a HUGE HUGE MISS) and Feb jobs report was revised down to 254000 from 295000. Stock futures dropped on the news - we will see what happens on Monday to the markets. Gold was up on the news - anticipating an accommodating monetary policy. It looks like the weather did impact this number, and the slowdown in the oil patch hiring affected this number. It also looks like the country has stopped hiring waiters and bartenders - there are only so many restaurants you can open!! 

There is still a huge shortage of workers in the tech field and there are numerous jobs in the tech industry as is evident by the poaching going on in the tech industry and the abundance of openings (due to shortage of talent & experienced workers).

We still think the Fed will still stay on path for a rate increase in Sept - we think this is going to happen. This jobs report was very likely a one month blip and we will have to see 3 continuous months of this type of job creation numbers to see a trend and comment on the Fed response. We still think rates have been too low for too long and the Fed is very concerned about the bubbles in the economy. Have a happy Easter weekend.

We went long MO on Thursday - check the chart at - chart for MO

UPDATED:

Other stocks of interest for next week: EXPE, SO, M, PHM, and TWTR and you can check other stocks on our Reports page at www.trucharts.com/marketreports.aspx


Trucharts Founder/CEO