Fed testimony, Markets, Tech Stocks and Backtest feature on our site

Fed testimony, Markets, Tech Stocks and Backtest feature on our site

LATEST UPDATE: Yellen dovishness sparked huge market move and tech stocks came off oversold conditions. Revenue growth is not there - but we are in bubble mode. We like the following pair trade - Long NFLX calls, Short NVDA. VIX is at all time low and volume in markets is also low - therefore the grind higher. Keep tight trailing stops. SP500 is going to 2500 and DOW to 22000. No stopping this bubble - we like also KLAC and AMAT. BA was our top pick and we still like it.

Brief update on the markets and Yellen testimony. 

Well looks like the squirrel went back into its hole - Yellen and the central bankers are now clueless as to what to do - one moment they are hawkish and then the next two weeks they become dovish. They are so scared now to raise rates, that they have just completely given up. They talked about reigning in the monetary stimulus via draining liquidity from the system by selling their assets on their huge balance sheet of over $4T - loaded with mortgage backed securities. They want to start this in September and increase that as they go along. In addition, Grandma Yellen also indicated that she may not be raising rates (of course that would increase our debt burden) T aggressively - the markets rocked up in a straight line, dollar crashed but gold was up slightly. Basically the Fed is saying we do not care about the bubbles, asset valuations and whatever else the loose monetary policy has unleashed in asset bubbles around the world. Case in example - do you know that the Indian stock market is up over 1000% - yes 1000% - in 14 years - no one is mentioning that the Indian banks are drowning in NPLs - but yet the market is up over 1000%. PEs and company valuations in the US are at levels not seen since the 2000 and 2007 heights and moving higher. But the central banks do not care as this is making the rich richer and the goal is to make the average guy feel richer. Nasdaq is out performing and we are heading into earnings season for Q2 - we will have to wait and see how the companies manipulate their results using financial engineering and stock buybacks etc. Oil has been crashing - we had predicted that and we will have to wait and see how that plays out. Tech stocks are rocking and rolling like there is no bound to valuations and PEs - sounds like the 1999-2000 bubble times (i remember those days very distinctly). FAANG stocks are rocking and we like NFLX and AMZN. FB is breaking out and we need to watch carefully where it goes. We like BABA, QCOM, BA, CAT, LLY, AAPL and are short NVDA. Airline stocks like UAL are about to breakout and rail stocks along with defense stocks look good. Even though there may be issues with the valuations etc., these do not matter as we are in full bubble mode - in Bay area people are over bidding on houses by over 350K with multiple offers - exactly like 1999. We expect this to continue. In addition, we are not seeing any real technical weakness in the markets other retail and oil stocks. We also like EEM as merging markets are doing well.

Always put a stop limit loss of 5% to 10% below 50d SMA to limit your loss or gains in case there is a crash. Check these values on weekly charts also - like 13 week and 20 week SMA.

Also spend your time to learn how to trade options - it helps to reduce and improve your portfolio risk and return.

Do read the following: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-13/global-stocks-hit-new-all-time-high-after-dovish-yellen-strong-chinese-trade-data

There is a very unique feature on our site - call backtest and we use it for checking certain technical analysis parameters for many stocks to see which yield the best winning results. Here is an example for stock Facebook or FB and you can see one of our trading strategies generated a buy signal on 7/7 and the results showed that this was a very strong signal for FB and it yielded 7 winners and 1 losing trade. So there was a very high probability that the signal would yield to higher prices and sure enough the stock moved over $8 in 3 days to 159. See the snippet of the testing below:

It is tested over 600 trading bars and the results are amazing. We will be restricting use of this to paid subscribers only very soon and you have a chance to test it out. You can also check out our videos on youtube - links are on our site - www.trucharts.com.

Good luck trading.

Markets - Up and Down - What to do now - BUY or SELL?

Markets - Up and Down - What to do now - BUY or SELL?

Happy Labor day to all.

Well what do we think of the markets here and the direction. We stated in several blogs that markets were exhibiting topping action and we told our readers to take profits, sell rallies and reduce exposure or go short the semiconductor and biotech sector. We have been following this advice in our own portfolio. We have been net short since late June.

Markets have been bouncing from the recent crash and everyone was getting excited. This tells us that the people are still not scared enough and the folks on CNBS (got this of the web and I love it) are still very bullish in light of the market action. The VIX is still elevated and the ISEE call put ratio is still biased towards more put buying - we have not seen such a long string of the ISEE C/P ratio trend towards put buying. Markets dropped on Friday heading into the Labor day weekend. 

Major ETFs reflecting the DOW (ETF: DIA) and others have closed below their respective 100 week SMA. This is definitely not a good sign. We think the markets are headed lower to the 200d weekly SMA and maybe to the next support of 15000 for the DOW. We still recommend lightning up on your positions and take profits in any rally. Companies earnings forecasts are not strong and many are even lower than consensus forecasts. Just take a look at DE. JOY and the semi companies. Stocks are driven by earnings and stocks with their downward movements are indicating lower earnings coming in the future. Corporate buybacks and earnings number rigging along with Fed liquidity was what was driving the markets. You can expect short term rallies due to oversold conditions - but the trend is still down and we would wait before going net long. Insiders have been selling stocks at a rapid pace and they were doing so when the markets were topping - Major insiders in the biotech sector and semi sector dumped a lot of stock at the peak - this tells us that they got extremely rich and do not anticipate any higher prices - the markets were priced to perfection and the markets had gone up without even a 10% correction for over 3 years. We have shown some of charts below.

This past weekend the finance minister for China said that the China stock bubble had burst and this tells us that the Chinese government reactions and intervention in their stock markets is not working - and guess what happens - the Chinese citizens promptly move their money into real estate - the cycle never ends. We will have to wait and see how all the events play out in China. 

China is definitely slowing down and this is the world's second largest economy. They are mired in over capacity and nit driven by internal consumption. We think this is impacting the world economy and the commodity complex as China is the biggest consumer of the commodities.

Housing prices are again up in the US and heading into another bubble and we think this is definitely in the back of the Fed's thought process and with unemployment hitting the 5.1% well within the target range of full employment for the Fed - we think there is going to be pressure on the Fed to raise the Fed Funds rate. We have now the highest rate of employment participation (that means majority of the employable folks have stopped looking for a job).

From a stock perspective - we would not go long any of the semi stocks - we like SLAB possibly - but be mindful - you can take a position if you do not mind averaging down. We would hedge all our positions by selling covered calls and or you can sell puts if you want to own a stock. Now for shorts (be mindful we do not recommend shorting for amateurs - this is for experienced folks) - we still think IBB offers the best shorting opportunity here along with AMBA stock. We are short IBB and AMBA (since 115). Even though some of the indicators are oversold on a daily basis, the weekly indicators are not oversold yet.

We recommend watching this documentary (on youtube) on how OIL controls the world and how the "SEVEN SISTERS" control the world's oil: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtYOjMmEMeg - it is called the 'Secret of SEVEN SISTERS' - unbelievable. 

Check out our buy/sell strategies automated on your portfolio to see if your stock is still a buy or sell signal - try this on weekly and daily chart. Use the Stock charts page to check this. 

As we said last week - we are self funded and would like to get more subscribers so we can look for an investor to help us take the site to the next level - we would like to ask our readers and users to subscribe - it is a measly $9 or $15 per month to get the best feature set on the web and we know this since our returning user base is engaged on our site for more than 12 minutes a session. We use very minimal budget for marketing - we use our funds primarily for development, paying salaries to our developers, and servers, news/data feeds. 

Here is the link to the subscription service page: http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx 

Here are the weekly charts along with our trendlines drawn:

 

 

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team/Founder/CEO

Positioning your portfolio - Summer 2015 and Markets Direction - Blog Trucharts.com

Trucharts.com - Market positioning and where markets are for the summer - Blog Update for Week ending 6/19/2015

Well we guess by now you are all used to the volatility and jerky moves in the markets for the past few weeks. Markets that move sideways for a long period of time are either topping, consolidating, and what we call confused markets. For the past several weeks, we have been seen these wild 3 digit moves up and down and primarily the markets holding the 18000 for the DOW, 2100 for SP500 and now 5100+ for the NASDAQ. This has been occuring every single week. The Russell 2000 hit a new high as did the NASDAQ and everyone is ready to party like its 1999. 

Market pundits are trying to justify why the market valuations are low compared to 2000 - but some of their points sound absurd. Granted there are companies with good earnings and low PE ratios - but these are few and far between. Zero rates from the Fed, market speculators, big firms and heavy stock buybacks are the reasons driving this market and we have shown several examples of charts that look like exponential chart patterns. With everyone chasing performance and yield, stocks have been the only game in town and therefore we are seeing astronomical valuations for many companies - especially in biotech and stocks that are up for no reason (check the charts for stocks (for last 7 years period) like UHAL Chart; SHW chart; AMBA chart; IBB chart; REGN chart and many others. 

Here are the charts for DIA chart, SPY chart, IWM chart and QQQ chart from the week ending 6/19. You can see the DIA and SPY have not broken out yet and based on the market internals, we are seeing some fundamental weakness in the Industrial stocks, Utility stocks and the individual DOW component stocks - just check here the DOW 30 stocks with the mouseover charts feature: here is the link - DOW 30 stocks - check each chart and you will see how each of these stocks are doing currently.  

As we write, futures are up as Greece is trying to avoid printing drachmas and stay within the Euro zone. This is like the never ending story - it is like a soap opera - with the Greek Prime minister and the finance minister playing lead roles and the Germans are getting tired of it - but do not have a choice but to deal with it.

What should you be doing now: 

We would take a very defensive posture here and take some profits in profitable positions and sell some covered calls, and to protect downside risk with buying some puts on your positions - maybe 10% below (strike price) the current price - these are cheap, knowing that the volatility (VIX) is low and the puts would be cheap insurance. We typically hedge our positions as long and short and try to keep our portfolio balanced. We definitely still think there is risk here on the downside. 

NASDAQ is being hitting new highs primarily because it is being driven by the biotech stocks. These stocks may still go higher, but as they do, so does the risk. In addition, many new IPOs are healthcare related and biotech focused. We would be wary of trading these - unless you have the stomach or risk profile to handle volatile stocks. 

From a stock perspective, we are long BIDU, CYBR, Z, TWTR - we like MO, PM here for short term trades. We missed BTI at 104 (major support). We are short AMBA, and INTC.    
Here is a recap of some of the interesting articles we liked and have provided the links here:

What is the meaning of a "dry-bubble" to VCs?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-17/silicon-valleys-fantastic-dry-bubble

China bubble news:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-20/so-you-think-you-are-rich

California Drought:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-18/california-has-never-experienced-water-crisis-magnitude-%E2%80%93-and-worst-yet-come

TSMC and AAPL news - very interesting read and outlook on semi stocks:

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2015/06/18/even-apple-cant-save-tsmc/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

Till next week. 

Good luck trading.

Markets Rallied Hard today and here are the reasons why

Free Stock Charts - Trucharts.com - Auto Buy/Sell Signal Strategies -

Markets rallied hard today - this was due to several factors:

1. VIX was up for the past few days

2. Dollar had rallied significantly in the past few weeks and was due for a pullback. 

3. Euro rallied from an oversold condition - but this move up will be short lived with the current negative interest rate environment in the Eurozone

4. Retail Sales were down and that inspired the bulls to think that the Fed would be refrained from raising rates in June

5. Health Stocks and utility stocks were looking oversold and therefore there was a good bounce - we expect a test of 2025 on the SP500 and we went long BIDU today with a covered call strategy - we discussed this strategy in our blog yesterday.

• Check out our site for auto buy and sell signals for any stock, check out our real time news feature for before and after hours news and updates. We have technical mouseover charts for very quick technical analysis on our reports and earnings page.

Good Luck Trading.

Trucharts team 

Stocks of Interest - and Covered Call Strategy with 12% return - Market closing 3/11/2015

Trucharts.com - Markets Update and Stocks of Interest and Covered Call Strategy for BIDU

Markets were in an oscillation mode today and we had several negative and positive readings. But at the end of the day - markets ended down. We shorted UAL today - even though it was up today - our position in BOX stock is doing well (we write covered calls and / or covered puts on our longs/shorts) as needed based on market conditions.

We still expect SP to test 2025 and the Euro to go below par to the USD - our target is 0.90 - 0.95 - currently it is at 1.056 approximately.

We are short AEM and UAL. Stocks long positions are BOX, TWTR, USO, DATA, Z. 

Looking to go long BIDU - chart here - www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=BIDU - we like the stock primarily because it looks oversold and the call premium is very good and therefore the short term returns with covered call writing will provide a good return on the investment. Be aware that this a volatile stock. 

So let us say you buy 100 shares on margin - for 2 months - margin rates vary but are around 2-4% currently.

The covered call for near the strike price of 205 for APRIL 17 2015 is around $5.00 - so you will collect 500 as premium for one month and then your cost will be around 200. Let us say on April 17th the stock is at 200 and your call expired worthless (205 strike) - you can write the 200 call for May 15th around that time should be around $7 and you collect 700. Your total investment on margin at 50% is $10000 and you collected $1200 as premium on the calls and your cost went down to around $193.  BIDU call writing makes lot of sense and therefore we are looking to do this trade.

TruCharts team