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Showing posts with label Biotech Stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Biotech Stocks. Show all posts

August 8, 2020

Markets update Aug 8th - How we made 40% on AMD in 20% on MTCH in a week.. and 40% on NVAX..


Markets update week ending Aug 8 and what stocks to watch for next week

In the video this week we discuss the following - check it out and watch the whole video - you will see how to make money...



1.Site features and what we offer (voice issue (video), real time quotes and charts, self funded, subscribe, database update and screener)

2.Markets update for the past week – DIA,QQQ,SPY,SSO

3.Multiple stock charts

4.How we traded and made a 40% return on AMD, over 20% on MTCH and over 30% on
   NVAX

5.Bank stocks, ETF page, Reports page (Dow 30), CAT,DE,DIS,JNJ,FDX,UPS (gap ups)

6.Moving average examples and breakouts for OLED, BYND, ANET, FVRR, NFLX, AAPL, FB

7.Our favorite stock Z (Zillow group) and how we close to doubled our money

8.Backtest feature

9.Heatmap issue and fix, update

10.Software or SAAS stocks CRWD,ZS,COUP,OKTA and MACD patterns

11.Contact us truchartscom@gmail.com

12.Follow us on twitter - @trucharts

Video:



October 11, 2015

Do you buy or sell now!! Markets where are they headed for Q4 and our favorite stocks - Trucharts.com Blog week ending 10/9/2015

Trucharts.com Blog - week ending 10/09/2015

Do you buy or sell now!! Markets where are they headed for Q4 and our favorite stocks - Trucharts.com Blog week ending 10/9/2015

Well the title says it all - what do you do now that we have had this wonderful rally this week - the move (to us was expected) has been decent and we had stated the markets would move higher after the retest and elevated VIX. So now the VIX is trending down, material stocks have been up, gold has been moving up, right after the Fed announcement and energy moved higher. Markets moved higher as junk bond yields recovered from an oversold condition - be mindful - there is a very high correlation between JNK (etf) and the markets. This is the correlation related to the appetite for riskier assets - specially high yield junk bonds. Based on the charts for DIA and SPY - included here below - we expect the markets to go higher as technicals are still trending higher - see the MACD, RSI and the 200d SMA looks like where we could be headed which would be 17500 for DJIA and 2050 for the S&P500 - these would pose as high resistance for the indices and huge overhead supply. We believe this is just a bounce from an oversold condition with weakening fundamentals, remember earnings drive stock prices. But there are signs of bubbles everywhere and we would be taking profits and sell into the rallies.

Here are weekly charts for DIA and SPY:

 

Now we are heading into the earnings season for Q3 and forecasts for Q4 - we will have to see what the companies say. From FACTSET news we learned that it would be the first quarter since 2009 for back to back declining earnings quarter over quarter. In addition, FACTSET noted that forward P/E is around 15.9 vs average of 14.1 (5 year). We expect big declines in energy sector along with impact to companies earnings with global exposure due to strong dollar. Well Ms Yellen is going to make it easier by driving down the dollar with the Fed's non stop money printing and ZIRP. We have deleted the earnings calendar and estimates from our site due to very low usage. We will try to see if we can get this data from some other providers. You can check our realtime news page which has an earnings section and dates for reporting.

If you own a position in TSLA - please be mindful - this stock on weekly chart looks like it headed a lot lower and has formed a nice topping pattern. It is at a very critical juncture - the 100 week SMA. Here is the chart:


Charts for gold miners and GLD are looking good for the short term - trend is higher - good for some short term trading. See chart for GLD here - not convincing enough for me. Volume is not strong - but looks like it could go to 50w SMA around 113.


Here is a chart for BABA - we went long at 62.7 based on the buy signal from our site and will close the position soon - very likely this week. As you can see the buy signal was strong and stock is still heading higher - a very unique feature from our site. Please read DISCLAIMERS on our site and our site policies. We always strongly recommend you do your own due diligence and if have never invested in stocks - these are very speculative stocks and trading inherently is not for the risk averse. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions - our recommendations are meant for seasoned traders and experienced professionals.

Please make sure you are aware of holdings in your portfolio and the earnings reporting date - this is available in Yahoo and buy some cheap protection via puts maybe 10% below the current stock price - to limit your risk.


We were also long MO and plan to stay long - strong chart and did a breakout on this past week to a new high from a consolidation pattern.

Now on to our favorite stocks for trading this week and ones we will be taking positions in. These are the stocks we will be trading this week:

http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=VRX
http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=LLY
http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=MO
http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=YUM
http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=AAL

Please take some time reviewing these charts above and monitor these stocks. There are many others but we try to limit our choices to what we think have the highest probability of making money.

Please also take some time to review our site and do subscribe - as we said for all the services we provide, we know we offer the best value for money. We cannot survive if we do not have paying subscribers and we need your support to make the site a sustaining entity. People do not work for free and we do not get anything for free. But our users use our site entirely free and do not take advantage of what we truly offer to help you make money in stocks. 

Again your support is very critical - it is a mere $9 per month. If you cannot afford that then please do not trade stocks. You pay that much in commission and will very likely lose money also.

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team and Founder/CEO





September 27, 2015

NASDAQ,DOW and SPY where are these headed? What to do with your portfolio? Trucharts Weekly Blog

Trucharts Weekly Blog

NASDAQ,DOW and SPY where are these headed? What to do with your portfolio?


Sorry that we were unable to publish our blog last weekend due to some family commitments. Well the Fed speech impact was short lived and then volatility picked up in the past week and the biggest standout was the biotech sector which had driven up the NASDAQ to its 2000 highs and everyone on TV was still bullish on biotech sector. As much as we like some stocks in the drug sector and the biotech sector, the valuations were not justified - in addition, we were seeing heavy insider selling in many companies. Many biotech companies with no revenues were showing exponential charts and if you recall how we warned about exponential charts - these always are a bad sign of things to come. Just check out some of the high flyers in the biotech sector. We were also seeing weakening technical signals in the ETF IBB when it was hitting new highs.


Check these stocks:

www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=BLUE
www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=ICPT

and then there are many more in this sector that would move on the smallest drug news. Absolutely ridiculous. We have been saying to keep and eye on the 50 week SMA for ETF IBB (which we have been short), and sure enough once it broke the line in the sand it cascaded down and now it is a pure short. We are stil short but we are long BIS (short ETF) which closed for the first time above 50 week SMA - here is a comparison chart (IBB vs BIS). Check the BIS volume - highest ever.

We also have the chart here for the buy/sell signals for IBB on weekly chart - see below (this feature is provided to our registered/subscribed users). We think IBB is headed to around 260 - 280 range. There will be margin calls on folks who are long biotech stocks.

  



Now where do we think the markets are headed - gold moved up after Godmother Yellen spoke on Thursday that rates would rise in 2015 and markets were up in on Friday early and then pulled back later in the afternoon. We believe the institutions are moving into the comfort of consumer cyclicals, staples and high divided yielding stocks in sectors that are still strong. We are concerned that we may see dividend cuts in the stocks of oil companies - just a guess - but with oil down - there is no way these companies can sustain such high payouts. In addition, we expect massive layoffs and the oil states economies will be affected (Texas, Louisiana and others). We like NKE after their earnings report. We hav been playing with NFLX and are short FIT/GPRO (valuation too high). We expect the DOW to stay range bound 15000 - 17000 for some time here, SPY is headed to around 1750 - current price is 192.85. We would be very careful here - SPY and DIA have broken 100 week SMA. 

China slowdown has now shown up in 2 major equipment suppliers - JOY and CAT. CHina is definitely slowing down and we have to see if they are headed the way of Japan. In addition, the central banks are still running loose with money printing and it seems to be helping the top 1% only. Brazil is going to the dogs with its credit rating cut. The rates for 10 year bonds in Brazil have shot up to 16% - want buy some Brazil debt - anyone? We would stay away from these stocks. We like gold stocks - but we need to see high volume breakout - we are not there yet. We encourage to write covered calls on your positions - that is what we have done and that has protected our portfolio. The trend is down. The ony thing in favor of the indices is the RSI is oversold - but needs to consolidate. Here is weekly chart for SPY:





Check out our site features at the best subscription rates in the industry and on the web:


Good luck trading.

Stay nimble.

Trucharts Team and Founder/CEO


September 13, 2015

Weekly Blog - Fed Decision on rates this week - What to expect and Market Action - What to buy/sell?

Fed Decision on rates this week - What to expect and Market Action


The Fed week is finally upon us. What is the Fed going to do - the grind and the news is unstoppable - it is discussed on every financial channel and news and now we have the heads of financial institutions and governments asking the Fed not to raise rates - really, now we need these knee jerk morons who have made a killing in the markets because of bubbles from the Fed's own making and decisions, to ask the Fed not to raise rates. I have never seen moments such as the ones we are seeing now or ever, since I started trading the markets over 20 years ago. This is unprecedented in its nature and irresponsible with even the IMF and EU asking the Fed publicly not to raise rates. Well, with over 5.5M job openings, the lowest rate of labor participation, unemployment rate at 5.1%, and Fed balance sheet at $4T - bubbles in stock markets, real estate - these morons want the Fed not to raise rates!! We think the Fed is in a corner (as we said before) and is scared to even budge on rates. The incessant speculation from the CNBS'ers (on purpose) and the non-stop blabber on Bloomberg is really annoying and frustrating - not a single person really knows what is going to happen - OK, we are going to say rates are not going up this week and the Fed will keep the same language - we may be wrong, but, at least we are not going to be blabbering all day about it. Expect volatility around the bonds, US dollar and gold when the Fed decision is announced.

Ok, let us get to the markets now - what do we expect to happen this week - Markets were up on Friday - as we said the markets have never been down on any 9/11 after the event. We expected that and were prepared for it. We are balanced in our portfolio short and long. We are short some semi stocks and overvalued companies and expect these to still move lower - we closed our AMBA short for a nice tidy profit. We were short AMBA from $115. We still think the stock is headed lower. We closed part of our short in MU, GPRO and shorted FIT.

We are long NFLX and BIDU,CYBR,MBLY. We know these are not exactly what we would like in our portfolio at this juncture - but we hedge these with options. The VIX is still trending down and based on our analysis this week from the markets and stocks on Friday, we expect the markets to head higher into the Fed decision day - very likely it will be volatile due to uncertainty from the Fed. 

Do not forget - this is options expiration week and end of quarter for Calendar Q4 and we will be heading into earnings season for Q3 and expect a bunch of surprises and warnings. We saw several charts that look like good trades heading into the Fed rate decision day on Thursday. Charts that look good on charts are shown here (as much as we hate biotech sector - it did not close below our 50week SMA and is tredning higher for the short term - we are short IBB and will likely have to roll that position out into the Oct expiration). Stocks that are looking good for trading are - AAPL,DIS,MCD,CAH,RH,ILMN,GILD and some other biotech stocks. You can check this report on our Market Reports page - here are the links (you can skim the charts quickly with our mouse-over chart feature):

1. Stocks with Buy signals
2. Stocks which close $2 or higher

Here are some of the charts we like for trading this coming week - 


 

 

 

Good luck trading.

Trucharts Team/Founder/CEO

September 6, 2015

Markets - Up and Down - What to do now - BUY or SELL?

Markets - Up and Down - What to do now - BUY or SELL?


Happy Labor day to all.

Well what do we think of the markets here and the direction. We stated in several blogs that markets were exhibiting topping action and we told our readers to take profits, sell rallies and reduce exposure or go short the semiconductor and biotech sector. We have been following this advice in our own portfolio. We have been net short since late June.

Markets have been bouncing from the recent crash and everyone was getting excited. This tells us that the people are still not scared enough and the folks on CNBS (got this of the web and I love it) are still very bullish in light of the market action. The VIX is still elevated and the ISEE call put ratio is still biased towards more put buying - we have not seen such a long string of the ISEE C/P ratio trend towards put buying. Markets dropped on Friday heading into the Labor day weekend. 

Major ETFs reflecting the DOW (ETF: DIA) and others have closed below their respective 100 week SMA. This is definitely not a good sign. We think the markets are headed lower to the 200d weekly SMA and maybe to the next support of 15000 for the DOW. We still recommend lightning up on your positions and take profits in any rally. Companies earnings forecasts are not strong and many are even lower than consensus forecasts. Just take a look at DE. JOY and the semi companies. Stocks are driven by earnings and stocks with their downward movements are indicating lower earnings coming in the future. Corporate buybacks and earnings number rigging along with Fed liquidity was what was driving the markets. You can expect short term rallies due to oversold conditions - but the trend is still down and we would wait before going net long. Insiders have been selling stocks at a rapid pace and they were doing so when the markets were topping - Major insiders in the biotech sector and semi sector dumped a lot of stock at the peak - this tells us that they got extremely rich and do not anticipate any higher prices - the markets were priced to perfection and the markets had gone up without even a 10% correction for over 3 years. We have shown some of charts below.

This past weekend the finance minister for China said that the China stock bubble had burst and this tells us that the Chinese government reactions and intervention in their stock markets is not working - and guess what happens - the Chinese citizens promptly move their money into real estate - the cycle never ends. We will have to wait and see how all the events play out in China. 

China is definitely slowing down and this is the world's second largest economy. They are mired in over capacity and nit driven by internal consumption. We think this is impacting the world economy and the commodity complex as China is the biggest consumer of the commodities.

Housing prices are again up in the US and heading into another bubble and we think this is definitely in the back of the Fed's thought process and with unemployment hitting the 5.1% well within the target range of full employment for the Fed - we think there is going to be pressure on the Fed to raise the Fed Funds rate. We have now the highest rate of employment participation (that means majority of the employable folks have stopped looking for a job).

From a stock perspective - we would not go long any of the semi stocks - we like SLAB possibly - but be mindful - you can take a position if you do not mind averaging down. We would hedge all our positions by selling covered calls and or you can sell puts if you want to own a stock. Now for shorts (be mindful we do not recommend shorting for amateurs - this is for experienced folks) - we still think IBB offers the best shorting opportunity here along with AMBA stock. We are short IBB and AMBA (since 115). Even though some of the indicators are oversold on a daily basis, the weekly indicators are not oversold yet.

We recommend watching this documentary (on youtube) on how OIL controls the world and how the "SEVEN SISTERS" control the world's oil: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtYOjMmEMeg - it is called the 'Secret of SEVEN SISTERS' - unbelievable. 

Check out our buy/sell strategies automated on your portfolio to see if your stock is still a buy or sell signal - try this on weekly and daily chart. Use the Stock charts page to check this. 

As we said last week - we are self funded and would like to get more subscribers so we can look for an investor to help us take the site to the next level - we would like to ask our readers and users to subscribe - it is a measly $9 or $15 per month to get the best feature set on the web and we know this since our returning user base is engaged on our site for more than 12 minutes a session. We use very minimal budget for marketing - we use our funds primarily for development, paying salaries to our developers, and servers, news/data feeds. 

Here is the link to the subscription service page: http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx 

Here are the weekly charts along with our trendlines drawn:


 

 

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team/Founder/CEO

August 16, 2015

Is the bull run still intact - Markets ended below 50 day? Are you buying or selling? AAPL, NFLX, and the top horsemen

Is the bull run still intact - Markets ended below 50 day SMA? 

Are you buying or selling? 

AAPL, NFLX, Biotech and the top horsemen


What a week - but we ended the week with the market averages closing below their respective 50d SMAs. Looks ominous and then we had 5 days of non stop news of the Chinese Yuan devaluation - we had stated that this was the only option left for the Chinese and we do not think this is the end  the devaluation - the Chinese Yuan is headed to 6.8-7 relative to the USD. The currency is too strong and with the commodities in a complete crash scenario (from the slowdown in the Chinese economy), the Chinese government has to stimulate their exports by driving down the currency - just like all the other nations in the Pacific Rim - look at Japan.  

Markets moved sideways with minor moves up and down but still ended below their critical averages. We have been saying the markets have been going sideways with many 3 digit moves and topping action. Narrow breadth, narrow leadership, big stocks breaking down and a very high number of stocks below their 50d SMAs. Earnings have been lackluster and so have the forecasts. 

Investors and hedge funds are hiding in the high fliers and the consumer discretionary stocks - which are also starting to show some weakness. Some of the auto parts stocks are doing very well because of strong earnings reports. Dividend stocks are performing well due to the obvious benefits - although we think the dividends from the bigger oil players are at high risk of being cut due to the drop in oil prices and falling margins/profits. We would sell all the big oil stocks here if you own them and move money into cash or some other stocks like REITs and some of the other big industrial companies whose earnings look strong or are not affected by the commodity crash. Oil is headed lower and this creates a huge dilemma for the world over and especially the Middle East nations that rely heavily on oil exports for their economies. We are short HAL.

We have been saying to take profits in the tech sector after Micron (MU) and INTC earnings - this seems to have been the perfect call. Earnings were flat and forecasts going forward were lowered and sure enough all the semi stocks are being beaten down. We were short BABA into the earnings report, along with IBM - both of these shorts worked well for us. Sell AAPL and TXN. We are still short AMBA and SWKS and are looking to short MU.

Now let us look at the Biotech sector - especially the ETF IBB - it closed below the 13 week SMA for the first time in over 15 months and is starting to show technical weakness. We were short and did make money on some of our short calls and short puts. We are still staying short the IBB ETF and expect support for the short term at 50 week SMA at around 340. We think this could be the short of the century (our opinion entirely). Here is the chart:


You can clearly see support at the 50 week SMA.
We still do like AMGN - one of the only high dividend paying stocks in this sector. We would wait to go long AMGN.













We still like the REITs even though we think interest rates are going higher primarily the apartment REITs - with rents going through the roof - we think this will force the Fed to raise rates - rent is one of the components of the inflation index.

We expect the markets to test the 13 weeks SMA this week - around 17800 for the DOW and with the Greek Bailout approved by the Greek parliament - we would expect to see some bounce in the markets. 

Check the weekly charts with 13 week, 50 week, 100 week and 200 week SMA for all the indices on our site - you can use the big charts page at: http://www.trucharts.com/bigcharts.aspx

We have shown here below amazing results from our backtest strategy for IBB using the SMA cross with 14 day exit for 2000 bars - it showed a profit of over 211% - Amazing - we have the the snapshot below for part of the runs - an amazing number of profitable trades, just run the backtest feature and you can see for yourself with the numbers on the left hand side in the snapshot below.


Here is a chart of stock TRMB with our automated buy/sell strategy showing clear buy/sell signals on a weekly chart - a feature that is only offered on our site - to registered members only. This automated buy/sell signal could have made you money and saved you a lot of grief. I hate to say it - we do not believe in buy and hold - that is for sissies.

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team

August 9, 2015

Is the bull run over or is it just a correction? AAPL, Biotech, Industrials - what and where are the markets headed in this swoon?


Is the bull run over or is it just a correction? 

AAPL, Biotech, Industrials - what and where are the markets headed in this swoon?

Trucharts.com - Weekly Blog update

Hi to all our readers and viewers. We did not publish a blog last weekend due to some family commitments. 

Finally got back to the markets and sure enough - excitement all week - DOW was down seven days in a row. The Dow Jones, AAPL, NASDAQ, BIOTECH, Technology, Semi-Stocks and many indices were down for the week. Oil crashing, commodities crashing, China markets down (over $4T valuation wiped out), gold was down - then bounced, earnings were spotty and big energy stocks are being abandoned. With oil crashing, energy companies margins and earnings will be headed downwards. 

Narrow breadth and leadership in the markets were the key points we discussed in our previous blogs as being the indicators and signs of a topping market. We had several huge 3 digit moves and these type of moves are very characteristic nature of topping markets and this is exactly what we were observing. We had also indicated through our facebook and twitter page to sell into any rallies or going short certain stocks. 

A fight between the bull and the bears and short covering were driving stocks like CMG,GOOG,AMZN,NFLX and the top horsemen of the markets higher. The DOW component stocks are being hammered down and we think the DOW has definitely topped out. Revenue growth in companies in the S&P500 were unimpressive and EPS were primarily inline and forecasts were either lower or inline. We will have to wait to see how this plays out. We had also indicated to be short the semiconductor stocks after the INTC and MU earnings report and this played out very favorably for us. We are still short INTC,AMBA and SWKS. QRVO news was terrible and many other companies reported inline and their forecasts were below analyst estimates. We think this will impact AAPL earnings next quarter - the Apple watch and Apple Pay are also not performing well. We prefer to be short the AAPL suppliers and would lighten up on any technology positions on any rallies in this sector.

Now the Biotech stocks - these are the stocks that have helped the NASDAQ run upto new highs (eclipsing it's old high from the 2000 bubble). These are starting to show signs of fatigue from the huge run-ups and for the first time in over a year the IBB etf closed below it's 13 week SMA. We need to see it stay below this 13 week SMA for another week and if it does, we can expect it to go the 50 week SMA at around 320. We are short IBB. We are also seeing some stocks in this sector dropping from their bubbly highs. 

We had to close our TWTR position - we think this stock is headed lower. We had hedged the position with puts so we were able to handle the loss. We went long NFLX.

The averages have definitely broken some trendlines along with some major averages - we think this a bad sign and expect some volatility in August going into the September Fed meeting. Jobs report this past week was 215K but that was still above what we call a critical threshold of 200K jobs per month. Real estate is in a bubble mode and as are stocks and both these sectors will have to correct - stocks are already correcting and it is definitely a stock picker's market.  

UPDATE: We forgot to mention the number of new highs has been contracting sharply and therefore stocks hitting new lows is rising. Media stocks tanked last week and many of these broke major trendlines, and there has been major insider selling in all stocks. These are all signs that we have topped out after this 7 year bull market run. We would highly advise to take profits and sell any rallies.

As for China - the country is now in control of their markets - but we think this will be a futile exercise and the country is mired in over capacity, high debt, real estate bubble and still has a strong currency - we think they need to devalue the Yuan to gain over their rivals in the Asian subcontinent. Shadow banking is a huge problem in China and we have to see how the party handles the situation and not letting the markets run freely.

Let us see some of the charts we have discussed above along with the indices charts:


  1. AAPL Chart support at 105 - expect a bounce after MACD and RSI turn. Short.
  2. DOW Jones support at around 17000
  3. IBB headed to around 330-350 range - Short
  4. NASDAQ support at 50 week SMA.
  5. NFLX still looking strong
  6. SPY - support at 50 week SMA


 

 

 


Interesting articles for reading this week:

http://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/93862/why-china-extremely-vulnerable-now
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-08/12-trillion-fat-finger-how-glitch-nearly-crashed-global-financials-system-true-story
http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/legionnaires-outbreak-new-york-city-bill-de-blasio/2015/08/07/id/669061/
http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-dragon-losing-shine-foreign-firms-035151394.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/buck-wargo/boomerang-kids_b_7912484.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/150-watch-terrifying-apple-luxury-184402938.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/made-by-china-is-what-chinese-consumers-want-now-2015-8?r=UK&IR=T
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/irresistible-china-stock-trade-keeps-160001314.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-producer-prices-slide-to-six-year-low-in-july-2015-8
http://www.businessinsider.com/factset-q3-eps-estimates-sp-500-prices-2015-8
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-worlds-seventh-largest-economy-is-in-a-downward-spiral-2015-8

Good luck trading.

Trucharts Team


July 19, 2015

What will markets do this earnings season - trucharts.com blog weekend edition and update

What will markets do this earnings season - trucharts.com blog weekend edition and update:

Well we had the big down move and then the earnings season started - VIX was elevated and the shorts or bears were thinking they had the upper hand - but maybe it was too early and too easy. Like they say when it is too good to be true then... The bears are probably licking their wounds - it is never good to be taking hefty positions in one direction or the other upon the dawn of earnings season, and last week, we think bears were caught off guard and this bubble growing bigger last week. Stocks like NFLX and GOOG/GOOGL killed the bears moral. We think many people were short these stocks into the earnings for these companies.

ADDED: We do not like the semi sector here - there is definitely a slowdown in this sector.

Gold is dropping like a rock - we predicted around 1000/oz and that is where we are headed - this is a bad sign seeing gold dropping - long term implications are not good - but this can be expected since markets are going up and the sentiment is in favor of the markets going up. The scenario is playing out like the 1999-2000 bubble - where stocks kept going up - real estate was going up (like now) and people stopped taking the refuge in gold and gold dropped to $200/oz and then rallied into 2008-2009 to 1900 per oz. We think we should wait on gold to bottom out and the markets topping action to complete its cycle. The bears have not thrown in the towel yet and the NASDAQ is now leading the markets - sounds like 1999-2000 - well a repeat is here. 

How can we forget about Greece - well the government and the leaders caved in and we know that the finance minister resigned because Tsipras was going break his own word. Now Greece maybe saved and the Germans averted their egotistical Euro but we think this is not the end - with many other countries to follow.. Sell out Tsipras.. 

Fed will raise rates this year and quickly ramp this into the new year - rents and housing are moving fast and the Fed does not want this to get out of hand..

The internet stocks are trading at ridiculous valuations - again - check the market caps of all the major movers last week - FB, GOOG and NFLX. Biotech is still moving up and the breadth in the overall markets is very weak - that means that leadership is very narrow and only a small section of the overall market stocks are moving higher. There is very good evidence of a bubble scenario here - stocks up, real estate up and the Fed is still at 0% rate. You can clearly see this in the ETF and stock charts below: Do you see a pattern here??  SPY bounced nicely off the 50 week SMA.


 

 

 

 

Looks like the bubble is still intact.

Just check the charts for IBB,NFLX,NKE,UA,NEU and there are many others like these. YUP there is no bubble. 

Next week over 450 companies will be reporting earnings - AAPL,MSFT,IBM,MMM and many others. We think the NASDAQ is taking the lead here from the internet and biotech stocks and the biotech bubble is still not ready to burst. These are great trading vehicles. We expect the DJIA to stay range bound and the SPY to track the NASDAQ - VIX dropped to below 12 and the stocks were coming off an oversold condition and the technicals like MACD, RSI and SMAs still are pointing to a move up.

We closed our INTC short and are short AMBA,AEM and long BIDU,CYBR,WBA and V,
WBA Chart: www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=WBA 

We like BIDU here - coming off a bottom and oversold condition - earnings are on 7/23.

Check out our site and we have the best buy/sell signals on daily and weekly charts - no other site offers this feature and we will be now limiting access to paying subscribers very soon.

Good luck trading and focus on hedging your positions with options - we do that for all our positions.

Trucharts Team

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July 9, 2015

Greece, Markets and Dow Jones below 200d SMA - Mid week update - Blog Trucharts.com Stock Blog

Mid Week Update - Trucharts.com Stock Blog - Will Grexit be a reality and stocks to trade and China stock markets

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What a week - sorry, we could not post over the weekend and then we had huge market movements in China, US and then the Greek referendum. 

China markets were down over 30% and the Chinese government made or passed laws to arrest folks who were aggressively short selling, then increased margin leverage, forced brokers to plead a measly 120B Yuan to buy stocks, banned companies from selling their own stock and I am not sure when this list will end. Well in response to all these wonderful government interventions, the markets rebounded yesterday to the tune of 200 points and everyone was getting excited. We are non-believers of this rally and think it will still take its own course eventually - we believe the China growth engine is slowing due to their shadow banking and debt problems of the state owned entities. We expect the Chinese GDP growth to drop to below the 7% number and the Chinese are very concerned. We stated that the world is mired in overcapacity and China is at the root of this overcapacity. We expect a slight bounce in the markets here, but the downtrend should resume - timing not clear. When you are minting a billionaire everyday, you will eventually have more billionaires than anywhere in the world... Bubbles, bubbles and more bubbles and the Chinese government does not know how to handle bubbles - amateurs. And they have been printing money non stop - this will come to haunt them someday.

Now Greece - well the referendum passed with an overwhelming NO to the Eurozone and it is not clear what the Grexit will look like - we believe the Eurozone members Germany and France are extremely concerned about the future of the Euro zone if they allow Greect to exit - this is called dismembering - if one falls will others follow - Italy, Spain, Portugal and who else!! That is the reason the Eurozone leaders are scrambling to prevent Greece from exiting - we still expect that this is inevitable.. 

US markets - We stated in our previous blogs that the markets were exhibiting topping action and sure enough we had the markets trying to hold levels of 18000 for the DOW, 2100 for the SP500 and the 5000 level for NASDAQ. This topping action was ongoing for 4-6 weeks with 3 digit moves every other day. Eventually the markets broke down and now the earnings season is in full bloom. Markets broke 200D SMA for DOW and we are closely watching the 17700 level now as resistance and 2070 for the SP500. VIX is elevated and we have to be on our toes. 

We had earnings report from Micron, which were lower than forecast and their outlook was grim. AMD re-enforced the slowdown in the PC markets and we expect the same from the overall semi sector. We stated to go short INTC or SMH and overvalued stocks such as AMBA, SWKS, NXPI and AVGO. We believe INTC buying ALTR was a desperate move from INTC and they paid a hefty premium for this. And as did AVGO buying BRCM for a hefty premium. There is no questions there is a major slowdown in this sector and we do not expect any major driver for this sector. Overcapacity is a definite issue and the phone markets are getting severely saturated in China and India.

Some good reads from this and the past week:


We are long BIDU,CYBR with covered calls written and short INTC,SWKS,AMBA. We went long WBA today for a short term trade. 

We recommend that you hedge your positions by buying some put protection and selling some covered calls. 

Check out some new features on our site and help us spread the word - we rely on word of mouth advertising - we focus our funds on driving development of our site. 

Here are some charts for DIA, SPY, and QQQ - weekly: 

 



Keep an eye on 50 week SMA for all the above symbols - these are critical support. In addition, watch IBB to see if it closes this week below 13 week SMA - if it does - it is ripe for a short.


Best of luck trading.
Trucharts team.

June 21, 2015

Positioning your portfolio - Summer 2015 and Markets Direction - Blog Trucharts.com

Trucharts.com - Market positioning and where markets are for the summer - Blog Update for Week ending 6/19/2015


Well we guess by now you are all used to the volatility and jerky moves in the markets for the past few weeks. Markets that move sideways for a long period of time are either topping, consolidating, and what we call confused markets. For the past several weeks, we have been seen these wild 3 digit moves up and down and primarily the markets holding the 18000 for the DOW, 2100 for SP500 and now 5100+ for the NASDAQ. This has been occuring every single week. The Russell 2000 hit a new high as did the NASDAQ and everyone is ready to party like its 1999. 

Market pundits are trying to justify why the market valuations are low compared to 2000 - but some of their points sound absurd. Granted there are companies with good earnings and low PE ratios - but these are few and far between. Zero rates from the Fed, market speculators, big firms and heavy stock buybacks are the reasons driving this market and we have shown several examples of charts that look like exponential chart patterns. With everyone chasing performance and yield, stocks have been the only game in town and therefore we are seeing astronomical valuations for many companies - especially in biotech and stocks that are up for no reason (check the charts for stocks (for last 7 years period) like UHAL Chart; SHW chartAMBA chartIBB chartREGN chart and many others. 

Here are the charts for DIA chartSPY chartIWM chart and QQQ chart from the week ending 6/19. You can see the DIA and SPY have not broken out yet and based on the market internals, we are seeing some fundamental weakness in the Industrial stocks, Utility stocks and the individual DOW component stocks - just check here the DOW 30 stocks with the mouseover charts feature: here is the link - DOW 30 stocks - check each chart and you will see how each of these stocks are doing currently.  

As we write, futures are up as Greece is trying to avoid printing drachmas and stay within the Euro zone. This is like the never ending story - it is like a soap opera - with the Greek Prime minister and the finance minister playing lead roles and the Germans are getting tired of it - but do not have a choice but to deal with it.

What should you be doing now: 

We would take a very defensive posture here and take some profits in profitable positions and sell some covered calls, and to protect downside risk with buying some puts on your positions - maybe 10% below (strike price) the current price - these are cheap, knowing that the volatility (VIX) is low and the puts would be cheap insurance. We typically hedge our positions as long and short and try to keep our portfolio balanced. We definitely still think there is risk here on the downside. 

NASDAQ is being hitting new highs primarily because it is being driven by the biotech stocks. These stocks may still go higher, but as they do, so does the risk. In addition, many new IPOs are healthcare related and biotech focused. We would be wary of trading these - unless you have the stomach or risk profile to handle volatile stocks. 

From a stock perspective, we are long BIDU, CYBR, Z, TWTR - we like MO, PM here for short term trades. We missed BTI at 104 (major support). We are short AMBA, and INTC.    
Here is a recap of some of the interesting articles we liked and have provided the links here:

What is the meaning of a "dry-bubble" to VCs?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-17/silicon-valleys-fantastic-dry-bubble

China bubble news:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-20/so-you-think-you-are-rich

California Drought:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-18/california-has-never-experienced-water-crisis-magnitude-%E2%80%93-and-worst-yet-come

TSMC and AAPL news - very interesting read and outlook on semi stocks:

Till next week. 

Good luck trading.