Markets - Up and Down - What to do now - BUY or SELL?

Markets - Up and Down - What to do now - BUY or SELL?

Happy Labor day to all.

Well what do we think of the markets here and the direction. We stated in several blogs that markets were exhibiting topping action and we told our readers to take profits, sell rallies and reduce exposure or go short the semiconductor and biotech sector. We have been following this advice in our own portfolio. We have been net short since late June.

Markets have been bouncing from the recent crash and everyone was getting excited. This tells us that the people are still not scared enough and the folks on CNBS (got this of the web and I love it) are still very bullish in light of the market action. The VIX is still elevated and the ISEE call put ratio is still biased towards more put buying - we have not seen such a long string of the ISEE C/P ratio trend towards put buying. Markets dropped on Friday heading into the Labor day weekend. 

Major ETFs reflecting the DOW (ETF: DIA) and others have closed below their respective 100 week SMA. This is definitely not a good sign. We think the markets are headed lower to the 200d weekly SMA and maybe to the next support of 15000 for the DOW. We still recommend lightning up on your positions and take profits in any rally. Companies earnings forecasts are not strong and many are even lower than consensus forecasts. Just take a look at DE. JOY and the semi companies. Stocks are driven by earnings and stocks with their downward movements are indicating lower earnings coming in the future. Corporate buybacks and earnings number rigging along with Fed liquidity was what was driving the markets. You can expect short term rallies due to oversold conditions - but the trend is still down and we would wait before going net long. Insiders have been selling stocks at a rapid pace and they were doing so when the markets were topping - Major insiders in the biotech sector and semi sector dumped a lot of stock at the peak - this tells us that they got extremely rich and do not anticipate any higher prices - the markets were priced to perfection and the markets had gone up without even a 10% correction for over 3 years. We have shown some of charts below.

This past weekend the finance minister for China said that the China stock bubble had burst and this tells us that the Chinese government reactions and intervention in their stock markets is not working - and guess what happens - the Chinese citizens promptly move their money into real estate - the cycle never ends. We will have to wait and see how all the events play out in China. 

China is definitely slowing down and this is the world's second largest economy. They are mired in over capacity and nit driven by internal consumption. We think this is impacting the world economy and the commodity complex as China is the biggest consumer of the commodities.

Housing prices are again up in the US and heading into another bubble and we think this is definitely in the back of the Fed's thought process and with unemployment hitting the 5.1% well within the target range of full employment for the Fed - we think there is going to be pressure on the Fed to raise the Fed Funds rate. We have now the highest rate of employment participation (that means majority of the employable folks have stopped looking for a job).

From a stock perspective - we would not go long any of the semi stocks - we like SLAB possibly - but be mindful - you can take a position if you do not mind averaging down. We would hedge all our positions by selling covered calls and or you can sell puts if you want to own a stock. Now for shorts (be mindful we do not recommend shorting for amateurs - this is for experienced folks) - we still think IBB offers the best shorting opportunity here along with AMBA stock. We are short IBB and AMBA (since 115). Even though some of the indicators are oversold on a daily basis, the weekly indicators are not oversold yet.

We recommend watching this documentary (on youtube) on how OIL controls the world and how the "SEVEN SISTERS" control the world's oil: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtYOjMmEMeg - it is called the 'Secret of SEVEN SISTERS' - unbelievable. 

Check out our buy/sell strategies automated on your portfolio to see if your stock is still a buy or sell signal - try this on weekly and daily chart. Use the Stock charts page to check this. 

As we said last week - we are self funded and would like to get more subscribers so we can look for an investor to help us take the site to the next level - we would like to ask our readers and users to subscribe - it is a measly $9 or $15 per month to get the best feature set on the web and we know this since our returning user base is engaged on our site for more than 12 minutes a session. We use very minimal budget for marketing - we use our funds primarily for development, paying salaries to our developers, and servers, news/data feeds. 

Here is the link to the subscription service page: http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx 

Here are the weekly charts along with our trendlines drawn:

 

 

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team/Founder/CEO

Was it a market Correction? Or the start of something bigger?

Market Correction or is the market going to crack here?

Markets on Friday pulled back and broke the 50d and 13d SMA from the wedge pattern we discussed in our last blog. The NASDAQ closed above its 50d SMA. Here are the charts with critical short term trendlines. We expect support for SP500 around 2048 area and for the DOW around 17450. For NASDAQ, around 4850. These will be short term critical support areas. 

There was news on new housing starts which was not good heading into the peak home buying spring season and the housing stocks - check (www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=LEN as an example). Then we had news from Greece and possible default, then the news of the slowdown in China growth and the stock market bubble - investors opened over 4.8M accounts in one week - think about that number 4.8M in one week - Wow!! China is experiencing the same bubbles we had in the US - stocks bubble, housing bubble and then now again stock bubble. There are bubbles brewing everywhere and now for the first time San Francisco median price crossed $1M - this is what happens when money printing machine is running non-stop.

Check the trendlines for the DOW, SP500 and NASDAQ. Watch the levels closely. We have been in a sideways consolidation pattern after the breakout in Oct of 2014. There have been breakouts, but the markets have still been in a sideways pattern. Support for DOW is around 17000, SP500 support is at 1980 area.

With the earnings season in full force there have not been too many surprises - PM raised forecasts and the tech companies have had lackluster earnings - even the forecasts have been muted. We think this is the peak of the tech cycle. 
We are looking to short XLK (www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=XLK) 
and/or SMH/IPGP (www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=IPGP) for the short term. 

There is a another set of earnings barrage coming next week and the week after - IBM, AAPl, TWTR, YHOO and many more - check this link on our site for the earnings calendar: http://www.trucharts.com/EarningsView.aspx?qst3=qstthisweek.

Our all long portfolio was down only 0.1% on Friday even though the markets were down over 1% each and our long/short portfolio was up 0.5% on Friday. We hedge all our positions and our TWTR position was called away on Saturday. We are long MO, USO, BIDU, TWTR. Short positions are AEM, IBB and SNDK position closed on Saturday.

Check out our special susbscription rates for full access - our features are bar none the best of the web - we are aware of other sites that charge just $35 per month for the real time news feature. Here is the link to our subscription page and our site features:

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Good luck trading.

Trucharts Team

Trucharts.com Market closing update - 1/28/2015

Free Stock Charts/ETFs/Dividend stocks at Trucharts.com: Auto Stock Buy/Sell signal strategies - check out our site - free 30d trial:

Well another down day after Fed speak and the techncial picture is getting weaker. Read this article - a very good read on the market technicals: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/too-already-bear-market-110124065.html.

We stated we never have our portoflio all long or all short. We were hedged but stayed with our shorts - GM, F, IBB and DAL. We closed our YHOO short early. Our long side of portfolio was hedged with covered calls and today's weak close was not a good sign. 

OIL is getting crushed and our USO position is not looking strong. We will hold on as the bearish sentiment on oil is growing day by day. We now expect that oil will go to 40 possibly. Gold was down and we are short AEM. 

The market has been going through a tug of war between the bulls and the bears and looks like right now the bulls are losing. Earnings have been mediocre and a few companies are either beating or rasing their forecasts. Majority of the forecasts have been down for this year. Well what this tells us is that the economy is going to see some challenges this year and the world economies are in for a challenge. 

The Greek anti-austerity party victory is driving up the Greek bond yields - expect some fire crackers from the Euro zone - what happens if Greece decides to break away from the Euro zone. Who is next? 

We still want to stay short GM, F and AEM. We will sit and wait tight with our USO position and average down when the dust is cleared. 2000 onthe S&P has been the line in the sand - we will have to watch this 2000 mark and see if the S&P can hold or break it.

AAPL stock was up today and YHOO pulled back - FB still looks like a great short - overvalued company.

Trucharts.com Hot Stocks and Stocks to watch - Weekly Blog update - week ending 1/23/2015

Trucharts.com Weekly Blog update - week ending 1/23/2015

A shortened week and the Draghi moment on Thursday when the markets were up nicely after another round of QE was announced 1 Trillion Euros – all central banks are printing money and there is no stopping – low interest rates (negative in the Eurozone) and then we have stock bubbles and ZIRP in US is showing up as bubbles in stock valuations and real estate. We do not expect the Fed to do anything this year on the Fed Funds rate and Draghi is bent on destroying the Euro (which incidentally is at 1.115 to the USD) – now European vacations are going to be lot cheaper. And then we had the Greek election and the drum roll please !!! – the anti austerity party won the elections – what a surprise!! Are the Greeks going back to the drachma??

Enough politics – what does this do to the markets – the move up on Thursday was a big move and the move down on Friday looked like a consolidation move and the trend is still intact – the RSI and MACD is moving higher and we think oil is vacillating within a tight range, and gold is also consolidating. Keep an eye on gold and oil. There are over 1300 companies reporting earnings this week. AAPL is on top of the list and as are many big names. Check out the earnings calendar on our site at:http://www.trucharts.com/earningsview.aspx and also we provide the earnings date for any stock on the stock charts page. Futures are pointing to a lower open, but we expect the AAPL earnings maybe the catalyst and Fed speak is what is going to drive the markets.

We are short GM, F, IBB, DAL (sold some puts also)  and long USO, WSM, K, CYBR, LINE and went long BOX on Friday. Our ALTR short was a good call and GM calls expired. Our Trucharts.com BUY/SELL strategies are working well and we are using these to make trade decisions along with watching the technicals closely. There will be a lot of noise during the earnings season, so be watchful. Here are some stocks we like: K, and the list below – futures are down this morning – so be careful with your entry and keep tight stops – the trend is still up and we think until the Fed speaks we may see some volatility.

BABA	104.0200	105.2000	103.0200	103.1100	104.0000	9847987
CME	88.5000	88.9400	87.6800	88.5100	88.5700	1058695
EBAY	56.9900	57.2800	56.3100	56.7600	57.1500	13357022
ETFC	23.9000	24.9700	23.7800	24.5600	22.6500	12271579
EXPE	84.3300	88.6500	84.1400	87.4400	85.7100	3679708
HON	101.1100	103.9200	100.5000	102.4100	99.3900	5209857
HPQ	39.9600	40.2500	39.7600	40.1000	40.0600	6171057
IWM	118.3400	118.7700	117.5500	118.1300	118.2000	26223219
MNKD	5.5900	5.8000	5.5100	5.7400	5.5700	4143225
NOW	66.5900	69.5000	66.5500	68.7400	66.1400	1015475
SNPS	43.2000	43.8500	42.9000	43.5300	43.1700	448589
VLO	48.1500	50.9000	47.7400	50.1600	48.0000	11559865

Check our Reports section for many other picks in the MACD bullish crossover reports and others.

Please spread the word and invite your friends to use the site and take advantage of out recommendations and site features.

Trucharts CEO and Founder

Bob Bhatia

Trucharts Blog Stock Charts Free - Week ending - 1/16/2015

Trucharts.com Blog week ending 1/16/2015. 

Happy MLK day - markets were closed today - but what a closing on Friday almost 8:2 advancers vs decliners on NYSE and NASDAQ - we suspect short covering rally and short term oversold conditions - but technically the markets look weak and we had a 13d SMA crossing the 50dSMA for the indices - we expect a bounce to the 50d SMA - we had a strong close and gold moving higher, along with oil. And then we had the Dutch cut their interest rates to -ve. SO we pay the banks money to hold cash - think about that for a second - you pay the bank to hold your money - wow!! Then there is the expectation that the ECB will unleash another round of QE - when are the idiots in the Eurozone get it through their thick skulls - QE does nothing in a heavily taxed and socialistic government structure - reduce taxes and act like Ronald Reagan and let's see what happens - really dumb people lining their pockets. So stupid.

Today China reported the GDP number - 7.4% and then yesterday the markets in China got crushed as China pricked the stock bubble by regulating margin accounts which were non-compliant to the capital requirements. Now everyone expects China to unleash another round of stimulus. The whole world and asset prices are now running on steroids - that is what I call QE and all these stimulus injections into the economy - eventually these will hurt and the central banks are scared shit. Gold is the real currency and there is now a currency war in play an oil glut and stocks/real estate in bubbles everywhere. We never seem to learn from our mistakes.

This will be the start of the earnings barrage week - check the earnings calendar on our site at: http://www.trucharts.com/EarningsView.aspx

We closed our ALTR calls last week - our call on ALTR short was correct.

DAL - we sold puts for Jan 30 for 44 strike - we are still short DA and the 44 puts, GM and F.

Our GM call spread for 34.5 and 36.5 expired worthless. Our stock K is doing well and we are long WSM, TWTR, CYBR, USO and ANV. We still like gold here because it broke through resistance and the Chinese New Year is in February.

Here are some good picks for the coming week -

XLU (www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=XLU); Other stocks (www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=SO) - the utility stocks look good in this falling interest rate environment. Our call on HELE was good - still looks strong.

Chart of GRMN here below - looks good technically for a short term trade:

Trucharts.com - Blog and stocks to watch week ending - 01/09/2015

Trucharts.com Blog week ending 01/09/2015 - HELE, TWTR, SCO, USO

What a volatile first trading week of the year. We were negative for the year and then after the huge move up with the VIX above 20 - traders came in drove the market up over 500 points. And then on Friday we had the consolidating pull back. Even stocks like MU which guided lower revenue forecast to the analyst estimates for Q1 rallied after falling sharply. There was expectation that EU zone will unleash a QE and with nterest rates going negative in some of the EU countries - the markets rallied. In addition, we still have the Russian ruble crisis and the oil drop is definitely hurting the Russian economy, and the Venezuelan economy. The talking voices and experts on TV keep telling us that the drop in oil is due to lower demand and supply glut - I call that complete BS. This drop in oil is a politically driven - there is no way oil can drop 50% unless economies around the world are crashing - it is like saying 50% of the cars and oil consumers around the world suddenly stopped driving and the oil supply jumped by 100% - does this this sound reasonable at all. I believe oil will stabilize around 45 and move up to 70 from this very oversold rally - keep an eye on SCO the oil short ETF which is very extended - we woud look to buy puts on this ETF - check out the chart - www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=SCO. 

We are long USO, LINE and look to go longer in oil stocks or ETFs. We will wait for the signal. There is too much negative sentiment on oil. Surprisingly - gold and gold stocks and gold ETFs moved up last week - we think this was driven by a run to safety and the falling dollar from the extended move up.

During the rally, Advancers vs Decliners was almost 8:2 on the NYSE and the NASDAQ. Here are the numbers for the A/D and volume from Friday close:

Advances & Declines

	NYSE	AMEX	NASDAQ
Advancing Issues	1,163 (36%)	202 (50%)	913 (33%)
Declining Issues	1,975 (61%)	187 (46%)	1,785 (64%)
Unchanged Issues	92 (3%)	15 (4%)	101 (4%)
Total Issues	3,230	404	2,799
New Highs	152	11	77
New Lows	63	8	54
Up Volume	985,074,941 (29%)	52,720,491 (60%)	606,206,477 (36%)
Down Volume	2,335,614,656 (69%)	32,671,019 (37%)	1,034,281,930 (62%)
Unchanged Volume	49,081,860 (1%)	2,604,305 (3%)	24,354,296 (1%)
Total Volume	3,369,771,4571	87,995,8151	1,664,842,7031

This week is start of earnings week with AA (Aloca reporting tomorrow) - check the earnings calendar on our site at: www.trucharts.com/earningsview.aspx.

Here is an excellent article on the PE and the markets this week:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-10/permabull-throws-towel-stocks-are-massively-overvalued-key-multiples-are-post-war-re

This article tells us that we are at a critical juncture in the markets - we highly 

recommend taking some profits.

Another article: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-12/this-guy-called-bonds-in-14-you-listening-this-time-.html?cmpid=yhoo

On our stockview page - you can see the earnings date on the top right hand side of the data box for any particular symbol. We closed our YHOO position last week and we have been watching and keeping an eye on the utility stocks. The financial stocks like BAC and others pulled back - we have no positions in these stocks.

Our long positions are AMKR, USO, LINE, WSM, CYBR, K, and TWTR. Our short positions are GM,F,IBB,DAL.

We like the following stocks for next week:

TWTR - we think the rumors of a buyout are driving the stock higher - we went long on Friday - here is the chart: Charts:

  

Trucharts.com Weekly blog - stocks to watch week ending 01/02/2015

Trucharts.com Weekly blog week ending 01/02/2015

For SEO: Stock Charts Free, Charting, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Stock Blog, Stock Buy and Sell Signals.

Happy New Year 2015 to all:

Market Stats:                     DOW 17832.99; S&P500: 2058.20; NASDAQ: 4726.81

	NYSE	Amex	NASDAQ
New Highs	55	5	64
New Lows	23	5	31
Up Volume	1,317,747,081 (49%)	54,149,125 (72%)	640,070,736 (47%)
Down Volume	1,361,184,794 (50%)	18,108,068 (24%)	714,790,713 (52%)
Unchanged Volume	31,963,947 (1%)	2,449,256 (3%)	11,961,935 (1%)
Total Volume	2,710,895,822	74,706,449	1,366,823,384

New Year and new resolutions - I am sure Yellen and the Fed have their resolutions already in place - we think there resolution is keep economy on track and no need to raise rates - the dollar strength and weakening economies around the world will bolster the demand for US $ and US bonds - we do not see the bond bubble imploding (at keast yet). Seeing the oil collapse and the Russian ruble collapse is making the US dollar gain more strength and we suspect the Chinese RMB will get weaker - with the Chinese economy slowing - the Chinese will have no choice but to allow the RMB to weaken and make their exports competitive and with the Chinese economy driven by exports to EU and other nations with weakening currencies and economies - the RMB has to fall further. That is our prediction for 2015 - what does this do to gold - with energy prices down we expect gold to drop also - but we will have to keep an eye on this - gold may also become the currency of choice - a tricky catch 22 situation. Oil drop is, we believe, a political driven drop and maybe mixed in with a hint of over-supply. This is affecting major economies like Russia, Venezuela and other major oil-producing nations. We expect oil to be range bound between $45-$70. We went long USO and LINE this week.  The economies of US states like Texas, Oklahoma, ND will be affected by this drop in oil price - we will have to see the impact.

Fed action - we do not expect any rate hikes this year as we stated earlier.

Stock bubbles and valuations - There is no doubt we are in a stock bubble - the accounting shenanigans, stock buybacks help moved the stock prices and earnings. Many stocks and sectors are trading at above average PEs - with the Fed holding back on raising rates, we expect stocks to possibly rise this year as there are almost no alternatives to make a decent return. Stocks look extended short-term and we expect a pullback here and will have to keep a close eye on the earnings and forward forecasts for Q1. Semi stocks were downgraded last qtr by BofA Merrill Lynch and this a sign that the semi stocks have had a nice long bull run and we would expect a pullback. Keep an eye on the following stocks SWKS, TXN, ALTR, XLXN, SYNA, MXIM, SIMO etc.

VC funding and company valuations are still outrageous and it smells a lot like 1999.

We also expect major dividend cuts from the energy sector stocks - so please keep a close eye on your small to mid-sized oil and energy stocks with current high payout and high dividend payments - these will definitely impact the stocks prices.

Consumer staple stocks and retail stocks are holding up well and we expect the retail sector to show decent earnings. There have not been any major warnings to date - with the gas prices at the pump dropping, we expect that consumers used this opportunity to spend more on gifts etc during this Christmas season.

Utility stocks had a huge run due to the drop in bond yields and we need to keep an eye on these - there was pullback on Friday - but we expect that this sector will still be strong this year unless there is a bond rout.

We added a new feature to our stock site: Multiple stocks charts on one page - check this link: www.trucharts.com/multiplestocks.aspx.

We additionally added Ichimoku cloud and turtle trading system - these are available on the www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx.

We will be publishing the definitions and charts for all the indicators on our site soon.

Check out this stock LINE which we went long for a short term trade: www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=LINE.

Gold miner stocks were up on Friday - keep an eye on GDX, GDXJ.

Trucharts positions: Short GM (due to recall), technically stock extended, ALTR, DAL, IBB, AEM. Long USO, CYBR, WSM, K, HMY, LINE.

Best of luck for 2015 and use our site for auto buy/sell signal strategies and as we keep making improvements, we will keep you posted.

Thanks and please help us spread the word - our subscription price is one of the lowest and best in the industry for the type of information we provide to our users and if you have any ideas for improvements or information you would like us to add, please email our CEO and founder directly at bbhatia@trucharts.com - we look forward to your comments and feedback.

Trucharts Team