Schizophrenic markets, Fed Reserve, Powell and markets moving up, FAANG stocks

Schizophrenic markets, Fed  Reserve, Powell and markets moving up, FAANG stocks

Well the man with balls - lost them over Xmas and New Year's eve - you know who we are talking about - none other than good old Powell himself.. I guess he had a good chat with grandma Yellen and good old bubble maker Bernanke himself and suddenly had his balls chopped off for being too aggressive and making the rich poor - oh we feel for the rich!!! What a fucking joke. Markets gyrating 1000 points in a day, 700 points - guess we have to get used to these type of moves. And then we have the blabber heads on TV trying to explain these markets. And non stop talk about the Fed and their constant analysis - just annoying - it would be nice to have a channel where no one says anything. Yet have you heard anyone yet mentioning that the bubble is falling apart. Somehow the Fed roll off the balance sheet is now being questioned after the teachers of Powell (Yellen/Bernanke) made some noise on Friday and everyone was excited. Again we are coming off very oversold conditions and several stocks are bouncing of key moving averages. We like any stock here for the short term - normally all stocks in the indices will move with the move up. so the FAANG stocks are also good for the ride up. Banking stocks look strong on charts - again be mindful - we are talking about some short term moves here and these can be used to trade intra-day and for overnight positions. Obvious names come to mind - FB, GOOG, SHOP, GRUB, NFLX (which moved up and we think it is going to 300). There are many other heavily shorted stocks that also have high betas.

Here is an article worth reading:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-06/ugly-truth-you-wont-hear-fed

The AAPL news was expected - it was obvious based on the suppliers indicating that their biggest customer (as if this was a big secret) was canceling orders - so the news from AAPL should not have shocked anyone and it was also obvious when the stock started falling after the last earnings report. As expected the stocks dropped and the once darling of Wall Street lost a total of over 350B in market cap value - that is the whole market cap for FB - and we say the markets are not over-valued or expensive - this is actually happening - everyone is in equities and the ETFs do not help - we think ETFs should be banned - these distort markets and are really another way for Wall St to just make more money. How are these different from mutual funds - there is really no difference.

AAPL will need to change its approach on the next generation phones and there is nothing new on the horizon and specially this paying $1000 for a phone days are over. These companies need to start realizing that after a certain point - (same as computers) - people are not going to pay up for small feature improvements and there is a lot of competition in this space. Competitive phones are cheaper and better. A good phone should be no more than 500 - yet all these companies keep pricing themselves out of the markets. As you can see Samsung and AAPL are losing market share to Chinese competitors all around the world and we expect that prices will trend downwards as we may have reached the peak with IPHONE X.

There will be backlash as ordinary customers will stop paying these high prices being pushed onto them. This is going to be the next computer - lots of competition and prices will start to come down. There is a lot of buzz around 5G - we expect some noise around this - but it will be short lived. Prices will not be going any higher from here on forward. This means it will impact margins not just for AAPL, Samsung and others - but also their downline suppliers - they will be put under pressure on component pricing.

We would trade the markets here as earnings season is upon us - watch the man without the balls now - Powell - who changes his tune every couple of weeks. He is like a management trainee..

We are expecting to launch our new revamped site with new features and buy/sell directly from our site towards the end of Jan - slight delay to our original planned date.

Time to go and make some money.. Good luck trading.

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2019..

Trucharts team/Founder (Co-founder Jetstox.com)

The Fed, the markets and tech stocks - FAANG - NVDA and others

The Fed, the markets and tech stocks - FAANG - NVDA, FB and others

Well the Fed showed that it has balls and is not dictated by markets or politics - and this is what would be expected if they are truly independent and focused on maintaining their mandate of full employment and low inflation - the previous two Fed generals or chairman/chairwoman did a terrible injustice by not raising early enough and leading to a massive ALL asset bubble - not just in good old USA, but all over the world. We were not aware but Chairman Powell has been an investment banker and a hedge fund manager. We hope he saw that the bubble was brewing in the markets and that valuations were truly over extended to a level that matched the 2000 bubble. Along with this we have a massive debt issuance from corporates that are rated at grade "BBB" - when companies issued bonds at cheap rates and this number has ballooned to $4T (yes TRILLION) from 1.5T in 2008. Watch the FAANG stocks - these are broken..

We have provided here a link for a very good article from Mauldin economics (one of the better ones written) - 

www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/powell-the-third-mandate-the-new-fed-and-crawdads - Check it out - it has some really good data.

We are down a mere 6% and everyone is panicking - imagine that - a mere 6% and apparently a growing economy (bustling as they say) - where it cannot handle a Fed funds rate of a mere 2.5% - what is wrong with a 2.5% fed funds rate - that is just 50bp over the 2% mandated inflation rate. Really - how is that our wonderful economy cannot tolerate such a normal Fed funds rate.. All the idiots on CNBC and Bloomberg - are nothing but a bunch speculators who have never experienced a bubble.   As we mentioned in our previous blog post - not a single soul has mentioned the word bubble - or how truly overvalued the markets are still - even after this pullback. We also stated that bear market rallies are fierce and vicious - so watch for many more of these in 2019 - but the trend is still down and there will be a reversion to the mean - it is called the law of nature and physics. Drumpf panicking as is Mnuchin - such morons.. Do check our comments on our last blog on how tops are marked with 3 different events.

We would like you to refer to our previous posts on stocks and why these were overvalued - stocks like NVDA, ALGN, ADBE and NOW. Check the charts we had posted and we are still recommending to sell these if you are making money. NVDA and ALGN are both down over 50% - and do you recall the analyst who upgraded the stock at 290 along with the analyst who upgraded ALGN. Well these guys still have their jobs and the stocks are down over 60%. We picked ADBE as our next big short - as it has a market cap of over 100B - for a company that does only 10B in revenue - what is that - a P/S of 10x.. Again overvalued and over hyped stock. We keep track of our key indicators and our indicators are saying there is more downside and there will be rallies on perceived good news and from oversold conditions - but these will be rallies to sell into. Here is our updated short portfolio;

We are still recommending shorting HD and LOW - the retailers will have a tough time in 2019 and this is being reflected in their stock prices - shorting Macys (M) would be a good idea here.

Again we will are in process of revamping our site - expect to launch in January - new features along with direct trading from our platform. Can't wait..

We want to wish everyone a merry Christmas and Happy New Year and wishing everyone good luck in their trading and some sound advice - to stop listening to the bozos on TV - Cramer, CNBC and Bloomberg. Too much analysis and non stop gibberish. Do your own work and analysis - it does not take that long to make sensible decisions.

Trucharts.com Founder

Our top short picks and markets

Our top short picks and markets

What a roller coaster - down 700 point and then up 700 points, we have had one of the most volatile periods since any recent memory in the markets. But we said in our last article that bear market rallies are fierce and vicious - these happen to shake out the weak, but the trend does not change - it happens to suck in those who think markets are bouncing back and going higher - this picture has been played before many a time. Basically what happens after a long period in these type of bull markets, where every dip is bought and things go back up again. The mindset of the investors and many becomes complacent and it is like becoming habituated or trained and maybe even numb to any volatility. On top of that if you add all the sound on TV, news and articles - you seem to be lulled into the fact that it is all OK and you can just keep buying - it will always go higher. We mentioned in our last post - it is like being at a party and everybody is high and drunk - no one knows what the hangover will be like. We recommend you read this article and it echoes our sentiment on housing and credit bubble:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-08/everything-bubble-has-popped

We are witnessing people reducing prices in one of the most hyped up housing places in America - California - specially Bay Area where folks were tripping over each other to buy houses - overbidding with cash offers was a common staple.. Now we are seeing price reductions ranging from a very low percent all the way up to 40% reductions - UNHEARD OF IN Bay area - we are staying with our prediction of the coming 30% price correction in California and Bay Area.

We wanted to also show how tops in some stocks are made - this always happens when companies build monuments to their success - good examples of this in our present era are - guess - NVDA, AAPL, FB and CRM - this tells us the story in these stock is also over.. So sell these while you are making money.

If you recall we have been steadfast on our call on NVDA stock being one of the most over-hyped and over priced semiconductor stock in the history of the markets (as much as we missed the bull run in the stock) - we stayed with our call on shorting it all the way up. As we stated sometimes it requires a lot of patience - the stock was trading at the highest P/S multiple ever. Well the markets finally spoke and the stock has crashed over 50%. We think it is going to $80.. Another over-hyped stock in our short list was ALGN - what a joke - stock went from 80 to 400+ - we said short it - and as of Friday the stock has crash 50% - think about that 50% - it is now at 200. The stock was trading at a P/S multiple of 17-18 - so for every $1 in revenue - people were willing to $17 - what a fucking joke. We were long puts and made some good money.

Well we want to bring to you our next top short picks - if you make some money - at least give us some credit and subscribe to our site - here they are - LULU, HD, ADBE and NOW. ADBE is trading at a P/S of almost 14 - Market cap 114B and 8B in revenue (ridiculous); NOW trading at 17 P/S ratio - 2 B in revenue and market cap of 33.5B; HD is a call on the housing slow down - just short it - over priced - we expect their earnings are headed lower.. LULU another retail dump stock and over hyped. We have other plays but these are on the top of our list. We are still short and hold shorts on these stocks in our account except HD for now - we will swap TXN short for HD short.

We like gold as it has been holding up and cash as a holding - gold has been moving up and this is telling us that there is some event that may occur which will impact the markets - maybe Deutsche Bank (DB) - it is not clear. In addition this has been a market for traders and not investors and it will stay the same for the foreseeable future - there is money to be made for the last few weeks via via intraday trading. So stay on your toes and again - this is not an invest-able market - majority of our accounts are in cash and we published our short and short/long portfolio on our twitter handle - @trucharts.

We do not do FB - but do post on twitter our trades. One additional prediction - FB will not be a company in ten years.

We have an incredible deal coming in Jan on our site www.trucharts.com  - stay tuned..

Good luck trading.

Founder and Trucharts team