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Showing posts with label NOW. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NOW. Show all posts

November 18, 2018

Our latest thoughts on markets, Bubbles, Housing, NVDA



Our thoughts on housing, NVDA, ALGN and bubbles:



Written on 11/01:

Housing Correction coming, Bubbles, and how we held our NVDA short for over 2 years - patience is a virtue in the markets - what stocks look vulnerable and why we think HD is going to less than 50.. Well, what we expected finally happened - fortunately we were prepared for this big move down and we think more is coming - we used our indicators to monitor and these were confirmed once the move down was triggered.  We believe this pullback and move down could last longer than anyone thinks. Bear market rallies are fierce and vicious, and these tend to fool the ones who are still hanging on to their hats, praying for the move up so they can liquidate their positions which were acquired a lot higher. Unfortunately praying and hope are not the answer. 

We have shown here our short portfolio and our long/short portfolios below..

We know that there are some impeccable indicators that clearly show we were approaching a top in the markets - here they are: AMD stock - Masayoshi investing money like it grows on trees (which we guess is partially true), and ETRADE ads on TV showing trading can make one a billionaire.. Very standard ads - we live in a world where we are easy to forget the past, and repeat the same mistakes in a different form at a later time with a different group or generation of folks.. It is called wash, rinse and repeat - the big guys know it and they play the game well. Suck in everybody - make them high and drunk - then kick them out onto the road.. Works perfectly.. been there done that.

We have been warning for several weeks now that we are experiencing one of the most massive bubbles ever - ridiculous valuations - excessive risk taking with no regard for risk. Eventually someone has to pay for all this money printing. We believe the Fed has realized there is a massive bubble in stocks and is focused on pricking the bubble. Well, they are succeeding. Not a single soul and crackhead on TV has uttered the word bubble - CNBC, Bloomberg - you name it - all these assholes come on TV acting like they are gods of the stock market - everyone of them is a pump and dump ass.. Trust us - we know this very well - when one analyst came out and pumped up NVDA - all the asses on TV said it is going higher.. It is the most expensive semiconductor stock in the world - trading at over 15 time P/S - there is ZERO justification for that and guess what my favorite top of the market indicator did - that Masayoshi idiot invested in NVDA. We had shorted it all the way up at every 20% move and then also bought the long term puts. Agreed that we missed this bull run - but sometimes you have to use your gut and sit through it - trust us - we have learned patience from markets. And this mistake will never happen again.. We know how to manage such a situation much better next time around. BTW - whatever happened to that analyst - did he get fired - nope - we know that in these firms, the firms will be short the stock, and then their analysts will come and put a buy on the stock while the firm is shorting at the same time.. It is a well known technique/practice - but will never get out to the public - well now you have it.  Another one of our favorite shorts and overhyped stock ALGN - what a joke - company does 2B in revenue and market cap was over 35B - how does this make any fucking sense.. (We are allowed to cuss in our own blog!!) - I can tell you people lost their shirts in this stock as it dropped over $80 in a week and over $170 in 4 weeks. Margin calls are running around the trading desks.. We were long ALGN puts right before earnings.

Housing in Bay area - here is our open prediction - a 30% correction is coming.. We said it and are putting it in writing.. There is a 100% stocks to housing correlation in Bay Area and once all of the stocks come back down to earth - so will housing prices - we are already witnessing price reductions of over 100K in a week for eager sellers.. Unheard of again - where people were jumping over each other to overbid and paying top price of over 200K-300K on average over asking - now there are no buyers - whoever is out buying - is going to regret it very soon.. Just a 20% reduction in price will instantly eliminate all your equity.. It is coming - wait and watch. This is the main reason we think HD stock has to go to 50.. all the days of renovation and flipping are coming to an end.. The SALT and HELOC deductions will devastate the Bay Area - watch - Trump knows it. Prices are coming down in NY, Denver, Australia, Hong Kong, Canada, UAE and India.

We are short and stay short NVDA, ALGN, NOW and many more overhyped and overpriced stocks. We will buy when there is blood on the streets.. It is unfortunate that many people will end up losing (wise ones will sell and take their profits) while all the suckers who are still drunk and high at the party will be stuck with a big shock.. It is also unfortunate that the Fed and all Central bankers have made the world (along with China) addicted to bubbles.. They have not learned that human behavior does not change just because of a single or two  incidents (2000 and 2008 crash) - people will take more risk when money is flowing like water.. No one is talking about all the pension funds, government liabilities, and many more government entities that will suffer consequences of bubble markets - it is sad and it would have been better had the Fed and central bankers had taken a more gradual slow and steady approach - we might have been in a much better position. Yet they do the same - wash , rinse and repeat.. So take profits while you are up - and do not end up crying later..

We will be announcing an amazing offer for equity trading from our site directly very soon - an unbeatable offer - that will rock your brain.. It is coming - stay tuned.. and keep checking our site..which will also be completely revamped.. 

Also check our call on Chinese Yuan to USD targets on our twitter handle @trucharts where we post our trades and our previous blogs. 

BTW - sell AMZN and we are short NFLX.

Short portfolio link on Twitter handle - (@trucharts)

      https://twitter.com/trucharts/status/1063793651552182272

Long portfolio:


Good luck trading..

Founder/CEO/Team at Trucharts.com   


October 7, 2018

Tech Stocks - Alibaba (BABA) and China/Semiconductor Stocks Updated/Fixed for fonts

Tech Stocks - Alibaba (BABA) and China/Semiconductor Stocks

First disclosure - We missed this bubble and are really upset that we missed it - made money in the last two bubbles but did not see this one even though it was staring us straight in the eyes. But this was an important lesson learned and a very expensive one at that. We missed many amazing stocks and that is what upsets us the most.. Truly disappointing..

Now back to the markets:What a run up - absolutely amazing - it was a classic up move from a huge pullback from earlier in the year. Every stock was just going up, up and up. There was no stopping the BULL train and indices hitting new highs - many stocks hitting new highs - company valuations crossing $1Trillion - bigger than the GDP of many nations put together.. Yet not one analyst or talking head or journalist (except that 1%) were willing to utter the word BUBBLE. New startups being valued at numbers that exceed the 2000 bubble, funding at levels not seen even in 2000 - Idiot Masayoshi - raising 100B funds like candy.. These are the signs of bubbles - not a single soul is scared or even concerned - margin debt at all time highs. P/S of companies at records - companies making no money being funded as they are going to make BILLIONS.. We have to say these are all signs we have seen and witnessed before and these never end nicely.. We have become addicted to bubbles and we have now perpetuated 3 within a span of 18 years - that is unheard of. Massive money printing and FOMO amongst the VCS, the investing public and machines doing the trading has led to this excess of massive proportions. There is not a single day when a company is going public - which is a sign the smart money (VCs) are cashing out - while everyone is high and drunk.. Some examples of stocks trading at ridiculous P/S - NOW - over 18x P/S; ETSY - over 14x P/S; and there are many more. The numbers of companies trading at these type of valuations is absolutely staggering. And every new company has now a valuation above $1B - it is an absolute joke - NVDA trading at over 170B market cap and P/S of over 15 for a semiconductor company - that is unheard of in the history of semi companies. Full disclosure - we are short NVDA.Here is a comment from ex CEO Scott McNealy from good old Sun Microsystems which eventually went out of business: read the words - they are actually amazing from a valuation perspective:



Anyway we can go on and on and now the 10Y Treasury is yielding over 25 bp over 3% and heading higher. Housing bubbles are cracking in many parts of the world - India, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, New York, Denver and many other locations are starting to breakdown from this incessant building of homes and apartments (flats as they are known abroad)You can only blow a bubble so big before it eventually explodes.. And the Fed and the world are all addicted to bubbles. We have huge issues with pensions all around the world - debt to GDP ratios at extremes and student loans, auto loans (with high car payments ever and highest number of payback years). Credit card debt at extremes and everyone is loaded with debt - this is unsustainable. The Indian banking system which was flush with loose money and corrupt insiders is now unraveling at a rapid pace and the INR is dropping to record lows while the markets are finally coming down. We think there may be a reset - do not know when and how - but something has to give because we have gone past the limits of what makes sense. It would have been better if the central banks had a good plan and approach to the crisis and managed it in a much slower and better fashion - but that is not what happened - they turned on the tap at full speed and now what we are experiencing is the overflow effects with no control left. It is like unleashing a monster.. If they would have taken a slow and gradual approach we would not be where we are today - staring down another bubble.. Unfortunately we want quick fixes and have been addicted to these bubble methods - which in the end always lead to busts.. This bust will last longer then anytime before and it will not be pretty. Just wanted to pen down our thoughts this week.We would sell the stocks like BABA - broken down and many tech stocks are finally breaking the 200d SMAs (some have already done so and have gone down since - look at MCHP and now we expect the same for TXN and BIDU etc.) So buy and hold works great when everything moves up in tandem but fails when things go sideways and/or start to breakdown.. We will update more next week. We are recommending short on ETSY and ROKU.

There is some exciting news coming from our site/platform - keep tuned..Good luck trading.

Founder Trucharts.com/Co-founder JETSTOX.com