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Showing posts with label msft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label msft. Show all posts

March 7, 2020

Volatility and Markets the corona virus effect

Volatility and Markets the corona virus effect


Well what a couple of weeks its been in the markets - the volatility and point moves have been pretty staggering and unseen in the most recent times and not really since the 1999-2000 bubble and also since the GFC of 2008..all from the corona virus.. Point moves in the DOW, S&P500 along with the NASDAQ are quite a wake up call for many used to the markets that have gone up in a straight line since 2019. And yet no one was crying out that markets were in bubble territory from all valuations perspective and higher than the 1999-2000 bubble.. Yet all the analysts kept raising their target prices for already over hyped and over valued stocks. Well the virus came and fixed that - in a span of 4 or 5 trading days all the gains of 4 months were wiped out. Just check the chart below...

The market players and individual investors had become numb to any down moves and were high on everything moving up and were hypnotized by the markets - since every buying the dip was a good move - specially in the big names - the DOW stocks and the most owned stocks by the entire universe of funds - HD, MSFT, FB, GOOG, and you can easily name the whole list.. 

As you can see the markets look oversold and may have some consolidation at this level - around 25000 for the DOW and around 280 for the S&P500. The QQQ (or NASDAQ even though looking oversold - may head lower - we think there is short term risk to stocks like AAPL, MSFT, AMZN and FB - the big movers for the past few months. AAPL definitely moves lower to around 240.. We recommend taking some profits in these big names.

Here are the charts for AAPL, AMZN, FB and MSFT. 
FB looks the weakest...











The DIA chart here is showing resistance at 270 so we should expect a bounce to that level  (around 27000 for the DOW). 
Although the markets have been volatile - it is a great time to make money.. The volatility creates huge opportunities to make money with intraday or overnight trades with the right stocks. Many stocks are moving over $10+ a day and that is a huge bonus to make money. It is easy to find these stocks and these are very standard big names like AMZN, MA, V, SHOP, ADBE, NFLX and many more. We recommend more day trading rather than holding overnight positions.

We really like gold and you can check our tweets and blogs and our call on gold since it has been at 1100 and now has had a move to around 1700 a move of around 40%+.. We still like gold and are long physical bullion and buying more... Our target is 2500 as fiat currencies are failing and in the end there will be some reset as the debts are unsustainable as are the promises being made by governments. We expect INR (Indian rupee to head to 80 per dollar..)

Good luck trading and do subscribe to our site - it is a measly 180 per year (premium) and 95/year for basic membership to excellent REAL TIME CHARTS, QUOTES, FUNDAMENTAL DATA, excellent scanner (screener) along with buy/sell strategy signals - we are working on sending technical alerts via sms/email...and many other features... 

Sincerely
Bob B (Founder Trucharts.com)


June 12, 2017

Friday's Nasdaq Tech Bloodbath

Blog 6/10/2017 and 6/12/2017 

Trucharts.com


Was it a tech carnage or not?? Friday was a huge rollercoaster ride but we made out really well!Well, Friday started out like a good day in the markets with many of the FAANNG stocks hitting new highs and then reversing ending lower. AMZN moved around 100 points and we were very fortunate that we had closed our puts and were long the lower puts on many stocks and all of these made us some really good profits.We have been short NVDA and are staying short - we know this is a bubble stock trading at ridiculous valuations. Many of the stocks on the NASDAQ have been going up non stop in a straight line up with almost no end in sight - it looked and still looks like the bubble of 1999-2000 with a different feel. Everyone feels invincible and like a investment pro. It is all easy to think that one is a genius in investing when making money is so easy. It is days like Fridays when folks start getting margin calls that we see selling and then everyone tries ti buy the dip. We will have to wait and see if buying this dip makes sense. 

Now there was one key thing we had noticed on Thursday even when stocks were moving higher - MSFT was acting weak and that was a sign that something was changing. Everyone in the midea and online (CNBS - Cramer) has been harping on and on about NVDA - a chipmaker which momentarily reached a market cap of 100B - yes 100B and selling at price to sales ratio of around 12+ - no semiconductor company has ever traded at such a huge multiple or valuation. Also it is very common to see when stocks are high flying that analysts and idots on TV come out and try to justify the valuations of such stocks - vocalizing terms which they have no idea about like AI and VR etc. NVDA is a chip company - end oif story and their sales will never ever reach the lofty valuation it carries. NVDA is primarily a graphics chip company with lot of competition and this is a very hyped stock. We highly recommend taking profits, if long, and we are short and long NVDA puts.So what happened Friday tech stock bubble - we think there is a shakeout that took place. Technicals are still strong and until we actually see real technical breakdowns - we have to count it as a shakeout. In addition, it would be prudent to take some chips off the table and ring the bell on profits. Many of the stocks bounced up from their 20day and 50d SMAs. Very typical when machines are running the house. We can expect some bounce but we are also seeing rotation out of tech stocks, which we mentioned have been going up in straight line fashion, into energy and other sectors. 

Financials were strong but we still think this was a dead cat bounce. We like BAC and some financials, in energy we like beaten down names like SLB for short term plays. We also like some retail names - short term trades - GPS looks good. We would short SBUX, NVDA and LRCX. Although the real technical weakness or clear breakdown is not evident yet - have tight stops above at recent high. We suspect there will be some bounce back and maybe this was just a shakeout. We will have to wait and see confirmation - as there were no breakdowns below 50dSMA. NVDA was a classic textbook climax high reversal.

Financials were looking strong as these were oversold and oil bounced with gold closing lower. We need to watch for follow through on these next week. GPS chart looks good and we are watching BABA to see if it consolidates here for a breakout.Monday was a nice bounce back day. Many good formations on charts - need to watch closely - still short NVDA.Good luck trading and checkout our video on youtube and follow us on twitter (@trucharts). We will start posting more videos on youtube on how to use our site more effectively for trading decisions. Do subscribe - it is only $10 per month for full year subscription.

B. Bhatia
Founder - Trucharts.com

July 21, 2015

Trucharts.com Excellent articles to read - we did not post in our blog update

Trucharts.com Excellent Articles to read links:


AAPL, MSFT - reported earnings after the close and both stocks are down in extended hours.

Short MSFT and AAPL. 

SWKS down also because of AAPL - short SWKS.

NFLX - looks very bubbly but we have to wait and watch this one.

We forgot to post these links to some excellent articles over the past week and weekend:

http://jessefelder.tumblr.com/post/120120109570/3-uber-bearish-studies-foreshadow-the-death-of

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/manage-meddle-magnify-chinas-corporate-012319507.html

http://fortune.com/2015/07/19/how-many-watches-did-apple-sell-last-quarter-second-pass/?xid=yahoo_fortune

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-must-learn-lessons-stock-145050718.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-ceo-must-balance-creeping-car-technology-and-consumer-privacy-182006526.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-s--consumers-poised-for-liftoff-164021519.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/generation-genuinely-creepy-electronic-devices-221000672.html

http://247wallst.com/investing/2015/07/19/5-ipos-due-to-launch-in-the-week-of-july-20th/

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/silicon-valley-startup-guru-says-162047275.html

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/101314/what-are-requirements-fha-loan.asp

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-19/in-bailouts-china-s-bias-for-the-complex-may-be-storing-up-risk?cmpid=yhoo

P2P- lending in China:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6b6a6ac4-2dcd-11e5-8873-775ba7c2ea3d.html?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev,traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev#axzz3gMDiX96v

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-19/portugal%E2%80%99s-debts-are-also-unsustainable

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/xi-jinping-losing-control-china-13366

https://www.helpscout.net/blog/best-entrepreneur-books/