Markets Update 12/10/2014

Markets Update 12/10:

Markets down, oil down, gold down and our short positions are right on the money. We have been saying markets look extended here and the commodity crash will impact the markets. We have been short DAL, YHOO, ALTR, AEM and long BIS, WSM, CYBR. We think the markets will test the 50d moving average. GM still looks like a good short.

Watch this closely - HYG - correlates to market performance and trend.

Trucharts.com Blog and stocks to watch - Week ending 12/5/2014

Trucharts.com - Blog update and Stocks to watch:

Another week and another set of new records and new highs. There is no stopping this train. Excellent jobs report (321K new jobs created). Oil dropped this week and so did the commodities. Energy stocks are getting slammed and so are commodity stocks. We think there maybe an end coming to the commodity cycle - many have indicated that this is typically a 15 year cycle that started in 2000 and will end by 2015. This will impact commodity stocks - so if you have commodity stocks in your portfolio - like FCX, BHP, RIO - be mindful and this end to the commodity cycle may impact the dividends being paid out by the commodity stocks. Another concern recently has been the drop in the oil sector stocks and their issuance of junk bonds to fund their exploration - the main concern is related to the capability of these companies to pay back this debt due to the drop in oil prices (check JNK). Financial stocks are breaking out. We are watching BAC (Bank of America) - here is the chart (weekly) - looks like it is going to breakout (Other stocks to watch in this sector - financial - JPM, XLF, MS, ETFC, AMTD)

Gold is still holding between 1100 - 1200 - watching this closely - we still think this is headed to 1000.

Health stocks and airline stocks were hitting new highs this week along with many tech stocks. AVGO, MCHP, SYNA and SLAB announced better outlooks for the coming quarter. We like the chart of SLAB - here is the chart (check the MACD and RSI):

Right now the trend is your friend and the don't fight the Fed. We will look to go long the financial stocks this week. Keep and eye on the commodity stocks.

We are still heading into the holidays and a strong period of the year for the markets - we would expect some consolidation - but DOW 18K is imminent and as is SP500 hitting 2100. We are short AEM, IBB (hurting right now), YHOO (will likely close this tomorrow and go long BAC). Watching the stocks above and UTX.

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team

Jobs Jobs and more Jobs

Stock Charts - Free and Charting at Trucharts.com: Well what a blowout jobs report - our estimate was 240K and one of the highest estimates and the job reports came in at over 320K. This is good news for the economy but will put pressure on the Fed to raise rates next year. We still do not think this will happen due to the other world economies - but will definitely not spur a QE event. Markets are consolidating here - strong season for markets - we expect new highs. 

Expect stocks to consolidate here.  We will publish a stock to watch list later today.

Today's market stats 12/04

Stock Charts Free, Charting / Predefined Stock Scans at TruCharts.com

Today's market stats 12/04 - Markets closed slightly lower from yesterday's close. There was a dip in the morning and then the markets recovered due to some rumor that QE was to be announced by EU zone. The breadth was negative - more than 2:1 on the NYSE and AMEX and 6:4 on Nasdaq (Decliners vs Gainers). ISEE ratio closed at 92 indicating more puts were being traded. Tomorrow is the big jobs number - we expect around 240K+ - due to holiday hiring. We are still holding all our positions - short AEM, YHOO, DAL, IBB and long WSM, BIS, TWTR.  We went long JRJC today for a short term trade.

Good luck trading 

Stocks to Watch - 12/4/2014

Stocks to watch tomorrow: SLAB, MCHP, CARB, JCOM.

Here is the slab chart - good for short term trade:

Stock Carbonite takeover - updated

Carbonite stock -

Stock Charts Free, Charting / Predefined Stock Scans at TruCharts.com:

We really missed CARB (Carbonite) - we had an instinct that it would be a takeover candidate and today JCOM announced a takeover of Carbonite.  

Check out the JCOM chart here (amazing):

www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=JCOM

Stock Charts Free, Charting / Predefined Stock Scans at TruCharts.com:

Very good article : Please read 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hindenburg-omen-cries-bear-market-again-2014-12-03?siteid=yhoof2

Stock Market Update 12/3/2014 Close

Stock Market Update 12/3/2014 Close Updated with ISEE:

Markets closed strong again today, we still think DOW 18000 is going to happen along with a hit of the 2100 on the S&P. Up Volume on NYSE and NASDAQ was 2:1 which shows there is still strength and trend for a move higher.  Advancing issues was 2:1 (175 new highs and only 74 new lows) on NYSE and 1.6:1 (135 new highs and 86 new lows) on NASDAQ. We have the job reports on Friday and if weak - watch out for bond yields. 

Still long WSM/CYBR/QIHU and YELP.  Short AEM, IBB and DAL.

Stock Charts Free, Charting / Predefined Stock Scans at TruCharts.com:

ISEE closed today at 136 - implying markets are heading higher - this is inline with the internal dynamics of the markets which we have shown above.

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team

YHOO short

YHOO looking weak technically - we will short for short term trade for this week.  Still short AEM.

Shorted YHOO today.

Short IBB.

Take profits on BABA. Heading to 50d SMA.

Check this chart for RIG - shows sell signal around 45 (which is where we closed our position).

Chart: www.stockcharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=YHOO
Chart: www.stockcharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=BABA

Trucharts team

Trucharts Post thanksgiving blog update - week ending 11/28/2014

Trucharts Blog week ending 11/28/2014

Well what a Thanksgiving week this was. New records were set and the S&P500 had a close over it's 5d SMA for 30 consecutive trading days - a new record. Stocks closed positive for the week and then we had the energy complex stocks getting completely crushed after the OPEC announcement from Saudi Arabia - no production cuts and crude oil suffered one of the biggest drops since 2008. In line with this drop, the other commodities got crushed - gold down, copper down etc., and the big rail stocks also dropped. We indicated that, we think, this was a political move by Saudi Arabia, pressured by US, to put the pressure on Russia and Iran - whose biggest revenue comes from oil exports. Obviously this is bad for all oil producing countries and good for possibly some oil importing countries like India/Japan and others. It will help reduce their account deficits and should be good for the consumer. Tech stocks, biotech and health care stocks did well - but then pulled back at the end of the week. We think the markets are definitely extended here and the move up has been nothing short of being historical. The ISEE P/C ratio closed at 74 on Friday and we expect the markets to pull back this week. We will very likely see a drop in the commodity stocks and the energy stocks. We expect that the drop in energy prices will definitely impact the local economies of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, North Dakota and the shale producers. Expect gold to drop to $1000 and below. We are staying short the gold miners that are still overpriced relative to their peers. Short AEM.

Biotech stocks are definitely in bubble state and it is not clear how long this will last. We are seeing some cracks but not there yet. Market breadth is narrow - meaning that the number of stocks moving up by sector is narrow. Consumer retail stocks should do well with oil prices dropping. GM was up - but we think this will be shortlived - auto subprime loans hit a new historical high and auto inventory for GM dealers is also very high. Along with the issues with the ignition switches, this will impact their bottom line. We are going to watch this one closely and wait for the right moment to short.

We are long QIHU, CYBR, YELP, WSM, BIS, and short AEM, DAL (with tight stops) and IBB.

Below is the link for some good reading this week - a good article on the markets and their direction.

http://www.businessinsider.com/long-term-stock-chart-pe-ratio-2014-10

Another very interesting article on the nature of of US consumption and our values:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-29/best-slave-slave-doesnt-know-hes-slave-america-today-4-pictures

Here are some charts for your enjoyment (all montly) we would short the XLE based on monthly chart:

Stocks to Watch - Post Thanksgiving Day

Stock Charts Free, Charting / Predefined Stock Scans at TruCharts.com:

Our stocks to watch list for tomorrow (we expect markets to head higher - we are in a bubble and in that environment - it is buy buy and buy) - here is the list:

MXIM, QIHU, TWTR, FB, WUBA, SIMO, AMKR

Have a great post thanksgiving holiday.