Happy Post Thanksgiving Blog - Markets and where these are headed going into 2016?

Happy Post Thanksgiving Blog - Markets and where these are headed going into 2016?

Started writing the blog in Hong Kong and now continuing to write in Singapore (a truly amazing city - so clean - it is like spotless). Still writing (now from Singapore lounge - Hong Kong airport is soooo much better).. 

Schizophrenic markets controlled by Central Bank speak and driving us crazy.. Down one day and up another just because of Central Banks (specifically Draghi - he is becoming such an annoyance) - Eurzone economy sucks - just suck it up and go home. What a waste of time. Well we had two days of trading on the downside and after the stupid huge ramp on Friday, because of options expiration and Draghi speak, we still expect the markets to stay range bound due to Q4 seasonality and technically weak. Energy stocks are crashing and our theme has been consistent on the energy stocks - stay away from these and our target for oil was between 35-60 - now we are at the low end of this range - tough to say where it goes - commodity complex is crashing and I was told that folks who bought real estate in many places (folks who were in the commodity business) are trying to dump their real estate holdings to pay off debts and get liquid. The COMMODITY boom is way over.. What happens to gold?? This will be tough sledging for gold with rate hikes coming. Negative interest rates in the Eurozone - who ever thought we would have negative interest rates - these are truly amazing times and the printing binge is not ending - then Saudi Arabia just secured financing for the tallest building in the world - Who the fuck wants to live in Saudi Arabia other than the fu%$$ng Arabs in such hot weather and crappy place. Having lived in the Middle East for a long part of my life - I hated every minute of it there. Someone's ego needs to be stoked - Alwaleed Bin Talal!! Ridiculous - this country is going broke and they are worried about tallest building in the world. Such BS..These people will never learn - they are here to just stoke their stupid egos.. 

Finally able to write freely after the stupid censors and blogging restrictions, 2 days of overcoming food poisoning in China - makes you wonder how is this country going to really move into the 21st century if it blocks freedom of speech, gets away with human rights violations and yet we welcome it everywhere - sounds too hypocritical to me. But, the progress in China is unbelievable - they keep on building - i think I counted over 500 cranes (since I was bored) in the taxi from Dongguan to Shenzhen. Crazy. There is no stopping the real estate train in China - not happening..Who knows where and how this will end - but right now it keeps chugging along. Travelled to India on this trip another crazy place with so much traffic, pollution and no control - and yet people keep talking about the Indian economy growing - where - it is predominantly driven by real estate, black money and infrastructure sucks, loans are defaulting and banks keep lending. The world is going crazy with the carry trade and there is no telling what the outcome is going to be. Right now everyone is acting like a drunken sailor and there is non stop money printing going on with no end in sight. Sounds like the good old Roman empire days..Well thanksgiving was great for the markets and black Friday looked good except online buying was even stronger. Then Yellen spoke and we had two down days right after that markets bounced on Draghi speaking.

It is typically a strong part of the year for the markets so you would have to buy the dips here - in strong stocks, typically Q4 is the best performing quarters and with quite a bit of under performance this year for many funds including hedge funds, we would expect a run on stocks going into the end of the year primarily in the big names that are holding the markets up - what we call the Trojan horses - AMZN,NFLX,GOOGL,FB,BIDU,BABA, and many others in this list and also top names that are underperforming this year will be picked up just to show good or at par performance relative to the markets - so our position would be to go net long here in the big names and ULTA also fits into that list. We stated in our previous blogs and on twitter that we liked the tobacco stocks(MO and PM) and LLY. We were net long the market with these stocks and these performed well for us. We have been short puts on YHOO - we like the idea of the sale of the core business - stock could go to 40.

Please do check out our site for our great buy/sell signals - we have been posting the charts on twiiter (follow @trucharts) - we have some amazing buy/sell signal strategies and we followed them for the energy stocks and that saved us a ton of money - specially stocks like SDRl, RIG, XOM, CVX and XLE. 

For 2016, we expect huge challenges for the markets due to lowered earnings and there is lot of technical issues with the markets that do not suggest a higher market - narrow breadth, leadership and overvaluation in many sectors - tech specifically. We would stay in some consumer staples with dividend stocks and stocks which have proven earnings power and options for hedging.  AAPL going into Q1 still looks good - but we would would hedge our position. Watch VIX closely - whenever it shoots to 30 - 40 range - start buying and we would sell biotech here - biotech bubble is over. Good luck trading.

Trucharts Founder/CEO and team
BB

IBB short update?? Read it..

We are providing an update on our position on IBB. It is slated to close below 50d SMA for the 1st time in over 18 months. We would short it here - we are short since 340. See RSI and MACD - trending down - this is weekly chart.

Here is the chart:

What will markets do this week? Semi Stocks, and which stocks are on our buy list

Trucharts.com Blog - What will the markets do this week - and which stocks are on our buy list?

Where are the markets headed this week? The markets exhibited volatile behavior this past week. The DOW and the SP500 ended below their respective 50d moving averages. The markets closing below the 50d SMA is a sign of weakness and with the upcoming earnings season, it would be wise to take some profits here and wait to take positions after earnings season is over. The NASDAQ held up due to the biotech bounce and the semi stocks on Friday due to takeover talk of ALTR by Intel (INTC). We expect the bounce to the 50d moving averages for the DOW and the S&P. See the charts here below for the DOW and the S&P.

In the commodity complex, gold had rallied hard due to the conflict in the Middle East and the Eurozone uncertainty with Greece. Oil moved up and then pulled back Friday after Yemen was bombed by Saudi Arabia. We think this conflict and Eurozone uncertainty will keep oil and gold volatile in the coming weeks. We think the risks in stocks is growing and we also showed a chart of the margin debt in China used for trading and buying stocks on margin - here it is again:

The Fed indicated that rates will start rising gradually from September - we believe this is coming and the markets are starting to get ready for rates to move higher. Here is an excerpt from the weekly Mauldin Economics newsletter (you can subscribe at Mauldin Economics) - an excellent writer: We call it the world on a debt binge thanks to the Fed:

Quoted as is from 'Thoughts from the Frontline' by John Mauldin
Begin Quote

This report was underscored by a rather alarming, academically oriented paper from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), “Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage.” Long story short, emerging markets have borrowed $9 trillion in dollar-denominated debt, up from $2 trillion a mere 14 years ago. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard did an excellent and thoroughly readable review of the paper a few weeks ago for theTelegraph, summing up its import:

Sitting on the desks of central bank governors and regulators across the world is a scholarly report that spells out the vertiginous scale of global debt in US dollars, and gently hints at the horrors in store as the US Federal Reserve turns off the liquidity spigot….

“It shows how the Fed's zero rates and quantitative easing flooded the emerging world with dollar liquidity in the boom years, overwhelming all defences. This abundance enticed Asian and Latin American companies to borrow like never before in dollars – at real rates near 1pc – storing up a reckoning for the day when the US monetary cycle should turn, as it is now doing with a vengeance.”

End Quote

There were some interesting picks we made this week:

1. SNDK short - staying short (company forecast lower revenue for the current qtr) - 
2. TWTR long and still long - looking to add to our position - we like TWTR and believe that they are ready to ramp their revenue model via ads (like facebook). The weekly chart for TWTR looks good (TWTR chart). 
3. Took a position in BIDU at 205 and are still long with a buy-write strategy. 
4. Additional positions we have are short AEM, long USO. 
5. Position in LLY was called away due to covered calls.

We wrote an article on IBB this week and showed that the weekly chart showed very good support at the 13 week and its 50 week average - here is the chart: We expect a pullback in IBB to the 13 week and if it closes below the 13 week, we expect a test of the 50 weeks SMA. Here is the chart:

Good luck trading.
Trucharts.com team

Bought these hot stocks today - Markets Rally today

Market Rally 3/18/2018 - Thanks Ms Yellen - Greatly appreciated 

CORRECTED LINKS..IN THIS UDPATE..

Well today's Fed output (scientific term) was all but nonsense and as expected - the markets had done a classic bear trap and sucked everybody in. Our expectation was to stay net long and our picks from our blog this past week was right on the money - Euro rallied, Gold rallied, Oil rallied and the Fed will keep blowing bubbles till it learns a lesson it will never forget - till then keep partying.

We mentioned the XLU, SO, PCG, LLY and BIDU in our blog this past week and as part of our holdings - all of these stocks rallied hard today - staying long and going long more on BIDU or LLY..

Here are the charts:

www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=LLY


www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=BIDU


www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=XLU


www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=SO


www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=PCG

Good luck trading. 

Founder/CEO
Trucharts.com

Trucharts.com Blog - week ending 2/13/2015 and Stocks to Watch

Trucharts.com Blog week ending 2/13/2015

Happy Valentine’s day to all and after a short travel hiatus, we are back to writing our blog. Due to blogging restrictions in China, we were unable to post to our G+, FB and blogger/WP. It feels weird when you cannot blog about just something simple as stocks. Anyway, it has been an exciting week after what we call a consolidation period in the markets. The S&P,NASDAQ and the DOW all hit an all time high – we were expecting the breakout based on the wedge pattern/descending triangle pattern that started in Nov. We expect this to move to last based on the recent earnings and the oil sector bouncing back. Gold pulled back and we expect gold to move down – we think the move up was due to the Chinese New Year. The Greek crisis is just noise and we do not expect this to impact the markets. Oil is in a bottoming phase and we will watch this closely – our picks LINE, USO and OIL jumped very nicely (over 30% for LINE and OIL etf), our GM short and F short will be rolled over to next month. We expect this to be a peak year for auto sales. Our pick CYBR did very well as did TWTR – both of these are up over 40% CYBR and 20% TWTR since our calls and check out the buy signal for CYBR on our buy/sell strategy chart below:

Check the Chaikin money flow Index on the bottom of the chart – it went negative when the stock gapped up on Friday. Based on our technical analysis, we would expect the stock to pull back/consolidate and make a move higher. The earnings were announced on Thursday after the close and the company crushed the earnings and guided higher.

CYBR _ WITH BUY/SELL SIGNALS

TWTR also reported good earnings and that moved higher and we are still expecting a move higher in TWTR. 

We went long ALTR based on the technicals. Here is the chart for ALTR. We will exit the position this week around 36.25 or better.

We went long AMKR, are long USO/LINE and are watching the following stocks closely next week:

http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=VFC (which went buy signal right before the gap up)

http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=PRU

http://www.trucharts.com/stockview.aspx?TICK=COLM

Markets are closed for President’s day – Monday. Good luck trading and check out our multiple charts feature and also our real time categorized news feature.

We closed our position in K (Kellogg) right before it gapped down on Friday – looks like people are not eating enough cereal!!

Our call on DAL short was right on the money - we closed that position this week.

Trucharts Founder

Delayed Blog posting due to travel and restrictions

To all:

Due to my personal travels for the past two weeks and travel to China - my blog has not been updated due to bloggin restrictions in China - we will be posting a big update later today - just a brief update on our calls on oil and the ETFs for oil (USO and OIL) these have moved up sharply from our recommendations and as has TWTR which really worked very well for us. We have been long USO and LINE which have moved up over 10% and 30% in the past week and TWTR has moved over 20%. We will discuss these and many other things during our blog update later today.  Good luck trading and watch BOX stock.

Trucharts Founder/CEO