Trucharts.com Blog - What will the markets do this week - and which stocks are on our buy list?
Where are the markets headed this week? The markets exhibited volatile behavior this past week. The DOW and the SP500 ended below their respective 50d moving averages. The markets closing below the 50d SMA is a sign of weakness and with the upcoming earnings season, it would be wise to take some profits here and wait to take positions after earnings season is over. The NASDAQ held up due to the biotech bounce and the semi stocks on Friday due to takeover talk of ALTR by Intel (INTC). We expect the bounce to the 50d moving averages for the DOW and the S&P. See the charts here below for the DOW and the S&P.
In the commodity complex, gold had rallied hard due to the conflict in the Middle East and the Eurozone uncertainty with Greece. Oil moved up and then pulled back Friday after Yemen was bombed by Saudi Arabia. We think this conflict and Eurozone uncertainty will keep oil and gold volatile in the coming weeks. We think the risks in stocks is growing and we also showed a chart of the margin debt in China used for trading and buying stocks on margin - here it is again:
The Fed indicated that rates will start rising gradually from September - we believe this is coming and the markets are starting to get ready for rates to move higher. Here is an excerpt from the weekly Mauldin Economics newsletter (you can subscribe at Mauldin Economics) - an excellent writer: We call it the world on a debt binge thanks to the Fed:
Quoted as is from 'Thoughts from the Frontline' by John Mauldin
Begin Quote
This report was underscored by a rather alarming, academically oriented paper from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), “Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage.” Long story short, emerging markets have borrowed $9 trillion in dollar-denominated debt, up from $2 trillion a mere 14 years ago. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard did an excellent and thoroughly readable review of the paper a few weeks ago for theTelegraph, summing up its import:
Sitting on the desks of central bank governors and regulators across the world is a scholarly report that spells out the vertiginous scale of global debt in US dollars, and gently hints at the horrors in store as the US Federal Reserve turns off the liquidity spigot….
“It shows how the Fed's zero rates and quantitative easing flooded the emerging world with dollar liquidity in the boom years, overwhelming all defences. This abundance enticed Asian and Latin American companies to borrow like never before in dollars – at real rates near 1pc – storing up a reckoning for the day when the US monetary cycle should turn, as it is now doing with a vengeance.”
End Quote
There were some interesting picks we made this week:
- SNDK short - staying short (company forecast lower revenue for the current qtr) -
- TWTR long and still long - looking to add to our position - we like TWTR and believe that they are ready to ramp their revenue model via ads (like facebook). The weekly chart for TWTR looks good (TWTR chart).
- Took a position in BIDU at 205 and are still long with a buy-write strategy.
- Additional positions we have are short AEM, long USO.
- Position in LLY was called away due to covered calls.
We wrote an article on IBB this week and showed that the weekly chart showed very good support at the 13 week and its 50 week average - here is the chart: We expect a pullback in IBB to the 13 week and if it closes below the 13 week, we expect a test of the 50 weeks SMA. Here is the chart:
Good luck trading.
Trucharts.com team
