Markets Panic amid the corona virus

Markets Panic amid the corona virus

Well, since our last post, markets have gone even further down and have pretty much wiped out the whole Trump elections gains in a matter of two weeks.  We have been warning of bubbles and valuations being absolutely out of control and now reality is starting to come into focus. We suspect margin calls are also exacerbating the selling  We were short and were long some puts and took on some longs today.. Two of our accounts was in an all cash position. 

Still there is risk and we are waiting for some of our indicators to show when buying is safe. The bottom is not in yet and you may see some wild rallies - do not buy - but only use these to unload or do intraday trading - there is lot of money to be made here.. We will see a bottom and it will be very obvious once it arrives and the pent up demand will be huge... So be ready.

if you have not taken profits in stocks that are making money like AMZN, AAPL and MSFT along with FB, NFLX - we highly recommend taking profits.. These stocks have not reached a bottom yet even with the intermediate rallies.. Check out our tweets @trucharts and check out some of the charts we post during the week. We have been short AAPL, SHOP and ROKU.. We closed our ROKU position today.. 

Again - we recommend doing intraday trading and using options to collect and get good premiums. The bottom is not in yet as much as it may appear from the oversold conditions and the VIX.. We may see a short term rally here - but use these to sell.. 

Good luck trading..

Check out our site - for excellent real time charts, quotes and fundamental data along with our excellent screener..

B. Bhatia

Founder Trucharts.com

Tech Stocks - Alibaba (BABA) and China/Semiconductor Stocks Updated/Fixed for fonts

Tech Stocks - Alibaba (BABA) and China/Semiconductor Stocks

First disclosure - We missed this bubble and are really upset that we missed it - made money in the last two bubbles but did not see this one even though it was staring us straight in the eyes. But this was an important lesson learned and a very expensive one at that. We missed many amazing stocks and that is what upsets us the most.. Truly disappointing..

Now back to the markets:What a run up - absolutely amazing - it was a classic up move from a huge pullback from earlier in the year. Every stock was just going up, up and up. There was no stopping the BULL train and indices hitting new highs - many stocks hitting new highs - company valuations crossing $1Trillion - bigger than the GDP of many nations put together.. Yet not one analyst or talking head or journalist (except that 1%) were willing to utter the word BUBBLE. New startups being valued at numbers that exceed the 2000 bubble, funding at levels not seen even in 2000 - Idiot Masayoshi - raising 100B funds like candy.. These are the signs of bubbles - not a single soul is scared or even concerned - margin debt at all time highs. P/S of companies at records - companies making no money being funded as they are going to make BILLIONS.. We have to say these are all signs we have seen and witnessed before and these never end nicely.. We have become addicted to bubbles and we have now perpetuated 3 within a span of 18 years - that is unheard of. Massive money printing and FOMO amongst the VCS, the investing public and machines doing the trading has led to this excess of massive proportions. There is not a single day when a company is going public - which is a sign the smart money (VCs) are cashing out - while everyone is high and drunk.. Some examples of stocks trading at ridiculous P/S - NOW - over 18x P/S; ETSY - over 14x P/S; and there are many more. The numbers of companies trading at these type of valuations is absolutely staggering. And every new company has now a valuation above $1B - it is an absolute joke - NVDA trading at over 170B market cap and P/S of over 15 for a semiconductor company - that is unheard of in the history of semi companies. Full disclosure - we are short NVDA.Here is a comment from ex CEO Scott McNealy from good old Sun Microsystems which eventually went out of business: read the words - they are actually amazing from a valuation perspective:



Anyway we can go on and on and now the 10Y Treasury is yielding over 25 bp over 3% and heading higher. Housing bubbles are cracking in many parts of the world - India, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, New York, Denver and many other locations are starting to breakdown from this incessant building of homes and apartments (flats as they are known abroad)You can only blow a bubble so big before it eventually explodes.. And the Fed and the world are all addicted to bubbles. We have huge issues with pensions all around the world - debt to GDP ratios at extremes and student loans, auto loans (with high car payments ever and highest number of payback years). Credit card debt at extremes and everyone is loaded with debt - this is unsustainable. The Indian banking system which was flush with loose money and corrupt insiders is now unraveling at a rapid pace and the INR is dropping to record lows while the markets are finally coming down. We think there may be a reset - do not know when and how - but something has to give because we have gone past the limits of what makes sense. It would have been better if the central banks had a good plan and approach to the crisis and managed it in a much slower and better fashion - but that is not what happened - they turned on the tap at full speed and now what we are experiencing is the overflow effects with no control left. It is like unleashing a monster.. If they would have taken a slow and gradual approach we would not be where we are today - staring down another bubble.. Unfortunately we want quick fixes and have been addicted to these bubble methods - which in the end always lead to busts.. This bust will last longer then anytime before and it will not be pretty. Just wanted to pen down our thoughts this week.We would sell the stocks like BABA - broken down and many tech stocks are finally breaking the 200d SMAs (some have already done so and have gone down since - look at MCHP and now we expect the same for TXN and BIDU etc.) So buy and hold works great when everything moves up in tandem but fails when things go sideways and/or start to breakdown.. We will update more next week. We are recommending short on ETSY and ROKU.

There is some exciting news coming from our site/platform - keep tuned..Good luck trading.

Founder Trucharts.com/Co-founder JETSTOX.com 

Do we keep buying or sell here..

Trucharts Blog 8/24/2018

Do we keep buying or sell here...

Such a conundrum buy or sell. Stocks keep moving up on the Nasdaq - this is very reminiscent of the 2000 bubble - the Dow Jones moved up first, stagnated and then the NASDAQ took over. We are seeing so much froth - in all stocks and at prices that are exhibiting absolute bubble characteristics. But yet stocks keep moving up - and we believe this may be driven by FOMO and central banks seeing the US economy as strong and buying stocks - think about that central banks buying stocks. Never has that happened in the history and ever since central banks have been in existence - money printing has become the norm and no longer an exception. Risk metrics are being thrown out the window and the predictions are getting frothier each day as if there will be no event that will kill this bull market. Valuations for all metrics are at the highest ever and yet there is not a sign of even a single bear on TV. Just run a check on price to book and price to sales along with PE screeners and you will see what we see as the most frothiest market ever. Every deal is getting funded and VCs are raising funds at an unprecedented levels. Everyone is an investing genius when all assets are moving up.. Very typical behavior at the top of bull markets.. You can never call a top until all leading stocks start breaking down.

Anyway - that was a short treatise on our thoughts as to where we are in this stage of the longest bull market in history. We are witnessing one of the biggest bubbles - and we do not know when or how this will end. In this market a $10B market capitalization is considered to be very low. Companies like VEEV, NOW, ALGN, and many others have revenues of no more than $2.2B but their market caps exceed over $78B - total annual revenue for these companies - $4.7B - so the multiple is - 16.59 - so for every dollar in revenue - people are willing to pay $16.59 - hmm - and the Fed says there is no bubble or folks come on TV and say - it is all great - bubbles are made this way.. 

On another note - marijuana stocks CGC and TLRY are trading at P/S of over 150 - so people are paying $150 per ever $1 of revenue - TOTAL MADNESS.

But these thoughts aside, we know this is an excellent market for trading and making money on a short term basis and also by the use of options or intra day or even from day to day trading. We are seeing machines doing a lot of the trading based on very elemental trading signals and this tells us that fundamentals do not matter - no matter what anyone is saying - there is froth, technical trading and money is being made at a frantic pace..

Using options or put spreads for stocks that are moving sideways or are in an uptrend is a very good way to generate income on your portfolio - candidates for these type of spreads would be CAT, DE, EA, IBM, ATVI, MNST, QCOM, INTC. 

No charts this week but checkout some new features on our site like our dynamic screener at with multiple options for screening:
http://www.trucharts.com/drpScanner.aspx

Our single variable scanner at:
http://trucharts.com/Scanner.aspx

We are planning to go long BIDU, EA, QCOM and INTC. We are heading into the AAPL announcement in September so you can be long stocks supplying to AAPL - like IDTI, INTC and others.

Good luck trading - check out our buy/sell signals on our page http://trucharts.com/Stockcharts.aspx

Subscribe and get access to all our features along with notifications..

Good luck trading.

Trucharts Founder

Is Tech Party over Fed and Grandma Yellen, ECB and Grandpa Draghi..

Is the Tech Stock party over??

So did the Fed crash the tech party and the bubble it created - what will it do to other asset bubbles. What will happen in the future with all the debt built up into the system and why have the billionaires become even richer in this cycle. The answer is Greed!! The Fed, ECB and central banks know that there is no way out of this debt cycle and bubble they have created and are responsible for. In the name of trying to save doomed and heavily taxed economies of the world and then making promises they cannot keep, the central banks are in a big bind - keep printing money and grow the debt or try to drain the liquidity. They have boxed themselves into a corner. 

The whole world has now over 280% debt to GDP ratio - Yes over 280% - thanks to Central banks and our crazy fractional banking system. Every nation is going to pay the price and the Fed has tried to perk up stock prices and has created another massive bubble in stocks and housing - it is called lather, rinse, repeat - when will these folks ever learn - that asset bubbles created from such loose monetary policies allow the folks at the top to get even richer and the lower class and middle class really do not get any benefit. Wages are stagnant and all the house buying is supported by elevated stock prices.

So did the Fed finally realize that the end is near.. and that they need to do something to stop their balance sheet from growing - did the ECB just realize that they are also complicit in perpetrating an asset bubble - just take a look at student debt, auto loan debt, and credit card debt just in the US. Consumer debt in UK, Australia and all countries is at exorbitant levels relative to income. Then there is corporate debt which has grown massively while rates have been low - will these go into default - what about the energy sector companies - will these be able to service their debt loads and their dividends?? 

The tech stocks and Nasdaq have had a massive run up and the valuations are at nose bleed levels. All these companies have manipulated earnings by doing stock buybacks and cost adjustments via layoffs and outsourcing. Real revenue growth is evident in very few companies and lot of the semiconductor companies businesses are very cyclical. Many of these stocks - specially like NVDA are trading at multiples given to very speculative companies or IPOs. We are betting heavily against NVDA and believe it is going lot lower. The daily chart shows a climax high on the day it touched its all time high of 168.5. In addition, the chart is parabolic in nature and parabolic charts never end well. We like QCOM as a better investment even though it is in the middle of some lawsuits and fighting the FTC and Apple. But their purchase of NXPI is an awesome addition to their portfolio as NXPI has huge presence in China. We do not believe the true benefits of this acquisition is reflected in the current stock price. NXPIs' RFID technology is omnipresent in China and the rest of the world (ROW) and growing. QCOM has enough cash to keep the dividend payout and if the government decides to change the tax rate on dividends then watch out and all dividend paying stocks will crash. See our video on youtube at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFC5iVaTkQY

So we think the bell on the NASDAQ and the semi stocks. We advise taking profits aggressively. All key indicators of market bullishness are at levels seen only in 1929 and 2007. 2000 bubble mania was higher and was the biggest bubble ever.

DOW stocks are doing well and it appears that energy may be bottoming here. We like CAT, DE and BA (wait to buy this one). The biotech sector still looks good but we would sell JNJ and MRK. Housing stocks look ok. Bonds are down recently - watch these closely.

Futures are pointing to a higher open for Monday Jul 3. This is very typical action prior to Jul 4th holiday. Sell into this rally any tech stocks and take profits. AAPL is still cheap but we would wait to buy at lower prices. We like NKE but keep a stop at 55. Weekly chart looks good. Chart for NKE - www.trucharts.com/stockcharts.aspx?TICK=NKE

Good luck trading. 

B. Bhatia

Founder

Fed meeting, gold, tech stocks and where we are headed

Fed Meeting - Fed stance, Gold and Where markets are headed

So the Fed meeting was over last week and they raised the rates by 0.25bp. In addition, indicated that they need to start winding down their balance sheet. Whoa!! Is Grandma Yellen and the Fed waking up to the scenario that they are the primary cause of the bubble - well surprise, surprise - they and all Central banks have co-ordinated this massive bubble and they have no idea how to truly unwind it. Stocks are trading at ridiculous valuations and at levels above the 2007 peak. The 1999-2000 peak was a real bubble of truly massive proportions - but we are now in an all out massive bubble in all assets except gold (maybe).

Tech stocks are valued at the highest EV/Sales ratio, high PE's and the insiders are cashing out. Does that sound familiar? Right now machines are trading and there we believe will be the catch 22 and the main risk. We can tell via our intraday charts when machines kick into the trades. Right now machines are running the show and there is very little human intervention. In addition, complacency is running at lows and we expect this to stay this way possibly through the summer.

We had predicted that the DOW stocks would hit new highs and many of the big names are hitting new highs. Our prediction of Dow 21500 was met this week and we do not see any reason for now that would not allow it to move higher.

We trade on technicals and these seem to be working very well - as we think the machines are programmed to work on technical signals. This is another reason to use our reports page to identify stocks that meet certain technical criteria.

So which stocks do we like - and how does one protect your portfolio.

Based on our analysis, we are seeing a move into the Dow component stocks and big names. We still like AAPL as it is cheap 0 but we would wait for a nice pullback before taking a position. We like BA, MDT, JNJ, CAT and DE. These are looking strong. 

We would take profits in tech stocks as we thinkthe tech cycle and bubble is over and although we may see signs of a rebound - we would sell into the rallies. There is definite rotation going on and tech is not the place to be at least for the summer or until the IPHONE 8 announcement happens. We are short NVDA and will stay short. We are long puts on NVDA also. 

We believe that the Fed is on a tightening and liquidity draining from the system and this will result in a profit taking in tech stocks as these are overvalued on all key parametrics - except for AAPL. In addition, please keep tight stops at around 8% to 10% or at 5% below 50d SMA depending on your buy price.

Check out our site - we offer AI based trading algorithms with clear buy/sell signals, end of day technical reports which work great to find good stocks to trade or buy.

We do not like gold as the Fed is in tightening mode and draining liquidity.

Good luck trading. 

Check out our site tour youtube video at -  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFC5iVaTkQY

Friday's Nasdaq Tech Bloodbath

Blog 6/10/2017 and 6/12/2017 

Trucharts.com

Was it a tech carnage or not?? Friday was a huge rollercoaster ride but we made out really well!Well, Friday started out like a good day in the markets with many of the FAANNG stocks hitting new highs and then reversing ending lower. AMZN moved around 100 points and we were very fortunate that we had closed our puts and were long the lower puts on many stocks and all of these made us some really good profits.We have been short NVDA and are staying short - we know this is a bubble stock trading at ridiculous valuations. Many of the stocks on the NASDAQ have been going up non stop in a straight line up with almost no end in sight - it looked and still looks like the bubble of 1999-2000 with a different feel. Everyone feels invincible and like a investment pro. It is all easy to think that one is a genius in investing when making money is so easy. It is days like Fridays when folks start getting margin calls that we see selling and then everyone tries ti buy the dip. We will have to wait and see if buying this dip makes sense. 

Now there was one key thing we had noticed on Thursday even when stocks were moving higher - MSFT was acting weak and that was a sign that something was changing. Everyone in the midea and online (CNBS - Cramer) has been harping on and on about NVDA - a chipmaker which momentarily reached a market cap of 100B - yes 100B and selling at price to sales ratio of around 12+ - no semiconductor company has ever traded at such a huge multiple or valuation. Also it is very common to see when stocks are high flying that analysts and idots on TV come out and try to justify the valuations of such stocks - vocalizing terms which they have no idea about like AI and VR etc. NVDA is a chip company - end oif story and their sales will never ever reach the lofty valuation it carries. NVDA is primarily a graphics chip company with lot of competition and this is a very hyped stock. We highly recommend taking profits, if long, and we are short and long NVDA puts.So what happened Friday tech stock bubble - we think there is a shakeout that took place. Technicals are still strong and until we actually see real technical breakdowns - we have to count it as a shakeout. In addition, it would be prudent to take some chips off the table and ring the bell on profits. Many of the stocks bounced up from their 20day and 50d SMAs. Very typical when machines are running the house. We can expect some bounce but we are also seeing rotation out of tech stocks, which we mentioned have been going up in straight line fashion, into energy and other sectors. 

Financials were strong but we still think this was a dead cat bounce. We like BAC and some financials, in energy we like beaten down names like SLB for short term plays. We also like some retail names - short term trades - GPS looks good. We would short SBUX, NVDA and LRCX. Although the real technical weakness or clear breakdown is not evident yet - have tight stops above at recent high. We suspect there will be some bounce back and maybe this was just a shakeout. We will have to wait and see confirmation - as there were no breakdowns below 50dSMA. NVDA was a classic textbook climax high reversal.

Financials were looking strong as these were oversold and oil bounced with gold closing lower. We need to watch for follow through on these next week. GPS chart looks good and we are watching BABA to see if it consolidates here for a breakout.Monday was a nice bounce back day. Many good formations on charts - need to watch closely - still short NVDA.Good luck trading and checkout our video on youtube and follow us on twitter (@trucharts). We will start posting more videos on youtube on how to use our site more effectively for trading decisions. Do subscribe - it is only $10 per month for full year subscription.

B. Bhatia
Founder - Trucharts.com

S&P and all indices at records - Wow Trump did have a huge impact on markets. Where do we go from here?

Welcome to the era of Trump and record high markets:

First of all, I wanted to apologize from being away so long from writing my blogs. Due to personal medical reasons, I was unable to keep my blog updated.

Well, we are definitely in the record books for sure. All indices at all time highs, financials were up, airlines up - everything is and has been going up. Financials did pull back from their highs after the Trump agenda does not seem to be materializing. But tech stocks - unbelievable run - all semi stocks, NVDA, AMD and many others are trading like it is 1999. Many amateurs are jumping into the market and let me tell you, I lived through 1999-2000, cashed out at the top - and this is looking like deja vu all over again - maybe to slightly smaller extent. Stocks are trading at sky high valuations and nobody cares, the media just keeps priming the pump and the bubble - along with the Fed.

It has been a nice run and we are still not seeing any real technical weakness - except in the financial stocks. AMZN, GOOG, FB, NFLX (or FANG stocks) along with TSLA are trading at valuations that are the GDPs of many nations combined together. I think it is getting crazy - but make hay while the sun shines. There is no regard for risk or risk aversion and therefore one as an investor or trader needs to make sure they have their stops in place. This is a good time to have one foot out the door. 

There is no question that this is a liquidity driven bubble, the Fed and all central banks are driving this bubble with no regard for the debt and market valuations. You can tell you are in a bubble when the markets and certain stocks bounce back to new highs even on bad news - mind you there has really been no real growth in revenue - there has been financial shenanigans and financial engineering to create wonderful rosy outcomes. Huge stock buybacks, and setting expectations low with the analysts community - and then during earnings season beating the estimates - sounds like a nice scam to me. But the SEC is powerless entity and they just play along. 

Anyway, we think there is still room at the top. With all this talk (no action) about tax reform, health care reform, infrastructure - well Mr. Trump does not seem to get that this is not like erecting a skyscraper - or just making a golf resort - this is the government and the government does not run like a business - and you cannot run it like a reality show - he just loves showmanship. Anyway, back to the markets.

So we like the following stocks - AAPL, WDC, PANW, INTC, QCOM - there are many others, but we are being opportunistic in our trades and watch for new highs and breakouts. We also look at the technical end of day reports from our site at www.trucharts.com/marketreports.aspx - look for RSI less than 30, improving RSI, TC Positional Buy signals and MACD crossover reports. 

The unemployment picture is not looking good - debt at consumer level is at record highs and this is already impacting the retail sector - obvious from the store closing and stock prices. Leadership is narrow and housing is looking like a major bubble - rides along with stock prices. 

We are in a bull market and heading higher into the IPHONE 8 season and going long AAPL is a good trade. Keep good stops and wait for our next update soon.


Good luck trading.

Trucharts.com
Founder

Markets Post Xmas hangover, SP500 line in the sand breached and how to prepare for 2016; The movie "The Big Short"

Markets Post Xmas hangover - SP500 line in the sand breached and how to prepare for 2016; 

The movie "The Big Short"

Ok it has been a REALLY long time since I updated my blog. Was out of it for a while for many reasons but suffice to say that I will do my best to keep our readers updated as much as I can on the latest conditions about the happenings in the markets and my predictions.

Well we have had a helluva of a ride in January and thank the Lord we were short. I was expecting some run up into the 1st week but that did not happen. We knew that the 2015 end of the year ramp was a who can beat the next fund manager race and we made money in it while the going was good and then the bottom fell out of the markets - I guess they are saying oil - but we beg to differ - we think oil was one factor but in addition the markets were, and are, still overvalued. We had the standard drop to old support and the standard "W" bounce backup - very textbook pattern and we expect the markets to move up to the 50d SMA coming in from an oversold condition, high bearishness and elevated volatility. Personally I think we are headed lower but for the short term the bulls have the upper hand. And with Grandma Yellen and the Fed out of the way for March - the party is on.. We said short many of our favorites like - IBB, QCOM, AMBA, FIT and many more - we covered a lot of these shorts and are planning to cover some more this week to have some ammo for some short term long trades. We like a paired trade like long AMGN short IBB and writing weekly calls and puts. In addition, BIDU is reporting this week, as is HD. We are looking to go long BIDU and waiting to short HD if their earnings/forecast do not look strong. We think HD is topped out - but we need confirmation that the housing is sort of peaking out here.

I personally believe that the Superbowl 50 was the mark of the super debt and commodity cycle. Gold - our favorite metal did well - but we need to wait for a nice pullback and consolidation. In the end gold is the best currency. As I write this gold is down 20+ and markets are rocking!! We have to see the bears capitulate a little bit before the next leg down. Be nimble..

Now for my rant on politics in the USA - It is the biggest sham ever put in the face of the public. It is such a shame that there is no real leaders in this amazing country where we had folks like Abraham Lincoln and so many more Presidents that made us feel proud to be an American - After George Bush Sr - it has been all downhill - Obama - fuck Obamacare - the worst health care law ever enacted - - we do not live in a free market society - we live in a collusion/cartel of insurance company health care system along with the drug companies - go see how the biotech execs have been cashing out of their stock - mind blowing, to say the least.. Hillary - liar and panderer, Trump Incompetent - no idea what he is talking about or saying, Sanders - Give everything for free and blame the corporations except the fucking government - Cruz - owned by the Big Boys as is Rubio - thank God Jeb is gone, as is Christie - owned by the mafia and even looks like the Mafia and I feel sad for Rand Paul - not that I agree with everything he says - but he was a really good candidate - and the media just keeps giving Trump so much free advertising and you can tell the media is so totally biased with the incessant analysis is way beyond crazy.. Where do people find so much time?? None of the candidates are even worth becoming vice president - much less president. Sad state of affairs for this amazing country - what blows my mind is how people even listen to Hillary talk - she is speaks from both sides of her mouth - saying one thing and at the same time telling herself how stupid the citizens of this country are. It is truly mind boggling. Our votes have no meaning - that is how the whole system is designed. All these debates are just a show and nothing else - Hillary will be president - that is the plan and Trump is part of this whole sham. Noise in the system..

Now for one of the best movies of all time - goes in my top 10 list - "The Big Short" - Please see this movie and it will teach you why sometimes you have to go against the crowd. When we were running our hedge fund ( I wish we had known about the insurance on CDSs') - anyway we were short the housing market - and no one would believe us and they started pulling their money out of our fund. After the crash of 2008-2009 - people agreed that we were right. We see the same state of housing - I know I may be early - but the tell tale signs are there - and it will come crashing again. It is like a double top and that is what I believe we are witnessing - easy credit and easy money printing and bubble blowing by the Fed - Big Ben and then his apparent clueless prodigy Grandma Yellen - what a disaster. The Fed has done nothing, along with the bankers of this country - then ruin the whole economy - it is easy when money is free to print - we are in debt to our eyeballs and yet we act like - no big deal. At the rate we are going - we will cross 20T this year.. States are going to go broke and then the government will too.. Buy gold, land and hoard cash because they are going after our retirement accounts soon.. It is coming - be ready..

Anyway - I am travelling again after a long period of some sickness - in Hong Kong waiting for my flight to India and then going to China on my way back to start a new business venture. I will keep trading as I love it and it is one of my passions.  Do check out our site - we have made many changes and improvements and do subscribe - it helps pay for our self funded developers/server and data charges and keeps us motivated to do more. Not to brag - but I do think we have a very unique site and for the end user we provide some of the best features. We are working on more features and will keep doing so. We have the best buy/sell signals with our proprietary strategies - check these out on the stockcharts page.

Good luck trading and best wishes.

B Bhatia
Founder/CEO trucharts.com

Happy Post Thanksgiving Blog - Markets and where these are headed going into 2016?

Happy Post Thanksgiving Blog - Markets and where these are headed going into 2016?

Started writing the blog in Hong Kong and now continuing to write in Singapore (a truly amazing city - so clean - it is like spotless). Still writing (now from Singapore lounge - Hong Kong airport is soooo much better).. 

Schizophrenic markets controlled by Central Bank speak and driving us crazy.. Down one day and up another just because of Central Banks (specifically Draghi - he is becoming such an annoyance) - Eurzone economy sucks - just suck it up and go home. What a waste of time. Well we had two days of trading on the downside and after the stupid huge ramp on Friday, because of options expiration and Draghi speak, we still expect the markets to stay range bound due to Q4 seasonality and technically weak. Energy stocks are crashing and our theme has been consistent on the energy stocks - stay away from these and our target for oil was between 35-60 - now we are at the low end of this range - tough to say where it goes - commodity complex is crashing and I was told that folks who bought real estate in many places (folks who were in the commodity business) are trying to dump their real estate holdings to pay off debts and get liquid. The COMMODITY boom is way over.. What happens to gold?? This will be tough sledging for gold with rate hikes coming. Negative interest rates in the Eurozone - who ever thought we would have negative interest rates - these are truly amazing times and the printing binge is not ending - then Saudi Arabia just secured financing for the tallest building in the world - Who the fuck wants to live in Saudi Arabia other than the fu%$$ng Arabs in such hot weather and crappy place. Having lived in the Middle East for a long part of my life - I hated every minute of it there. Someone's ego needs to be stoked - Alwaleed Bin Talal!! Ridiculous - this country is going broke and they are worried about tallest building in the world. Such BS..These people will never learn - they are here to just stoke their stupid egos.. 

Finally able to write freely after the stupid censors and blogging restrictions, 2 days of overcoming food poisoning in China - makes you wonder how is this country going to really move into the 21st century if it blocks freedom of speech, gets away with human rights violations and yet we welcome it everywhere - sounds too hypocritical to me. But, the progress in China is unbelievable - they keep on building - i think I counted over 500 cranes (since I was bored) in the taxi from Dongguan to Shenzhen. Crazy. There is no stopping the real estate train in China - not happening..Who knows where and how this will end - but right now it keeps chugging along. Travelled to India on this trip another crazy place with so much traffic, pollution and no control - and yet people keep talking about the Indian economy growing - where - it is predominantly driven by real estate, black money and infrastructure sucks, loans are defaulting and banks keep lending. The world is going crazy with the carry trade and there is no telling what the outcome is going to be. Right now everyone is acting like a drunken sailor and there is non stop money printing going on with no end in sight. Sounds like the good old Roman empire days..Well thanksgiving was great for the markets and black Friday looked good except online buying was even stronger. Then Yellen spoke and we had two down days right after that markets bounced on Draghi speaking.

It is typically a strong part of the year for the markets so you would have to buy the dips here - in strong stocks, typically Q4 is the best performing quarters and with quite a bit of under performance this year for many funds including hedge funds, we would expect a run on stocks going into the end of the year primarily in the big names that are holding the markets up - what we call the Trojan horses - AMZN,NFLX,GOOGL,FB,BIDU,BABA, and many others in this list and also top names that are underperforming this year will be picked up just to show good or at par performance relative to the markets - so our position would be to go net long here in the big names and ULTA also fits into that list. We stated in our previous blogs and on twitter that we liked the tobacco stocks(MO and PM) and LLY. We were net long the market with these stocks and these performed well for us. We have been short puts on YHOO - we like the idea of the sale of the core business - stock could go to 40.

Please do check out our site for our great buy/sell signals - we have been posting the charts on twiiter (follow @trucharts) - we have some amazing buy/sell signal strategies and we followed them for the energy stocks and that saved us a ton of money - specially stocks like SDRl, RIG, XOM, CVX and XLE. 

For 2016, we expect huge challenges for the markets due to lowered earnings and there is lot of technical issues with the markets that do not suggest a higher market - narrow breadth, leadership and overvaluation in many sectors - tech specifically. We would stay in some consumer staples with dividend stocks and stocks which have proven earnings power and options for hedging.  AAPL going into Q1 still looks good - but we would would hedge our position. Watch VIX closely - whenever it shoots to 30 - 40 range - start buying and we would sell biotech here - biotech bubble is over. Good luck trading.

Trucharts Founder/CEO and team
BB

Best October Market Rally, Do you Buy, Sell or Hold?

Best October Market Rally, Do you Buy, Sell or Hold?

Trucharts.com Blog update week of 10/26/2015

Well again due to some business commitments we were unable to update our weekly blog for over two weeks now. We are finally back and updating our readers on what has transpired and with all the financial media going nuts over the best October rally, we have to sit back and see what to do next and plan for Q4. Check out our site for the best buy/sell signals for stocks and just apply it on BABA stock and you will see why we went long at 62.. Go tot the stock charts page and click on the Trucharts Trading Strategies bar - seen in red below and you will get the different trading strategy options to apply to the chart - (please read our disclaimers - please do your due diligence and consult with your financial adviser before making investment decisions) - this is for information purposes only. We offer this to our paying and free subscribed users only. You can try this on VRX and you will see it generated a SELL signal around 220.

There is no doubt that the rally was expected. We had discussed this in our last blog and our updates via twitter (twitter handle: @trucharts) and on facebook at (https://www.facebook.com/truchartscom-273554162830234/) - we expected S&P to reach around 2100, DJIA to reach around 17800 to 18000 and that is exactly what the indices did during the October rally and with earnings season in full force - markets responded to stocks with good earnings. We believe that this is a short lived rally and even if we hit new highs, we would sell into the rallies. Markets are not significantly overbought yet so we expect some sideways movements in the indices. The Fed spoke (amazing) and now that they realize they are well behind the curve in raising rates, the again tried to spook the markets by indicating a possible rate hike for December. Markets are in bubble mode - real estate along with it and it is not just here but all around the world. We have bubble blowers and Central banks printing money while earnings from companies are drying up and not even meeting lower estimates. The Wall Street gang plays this game beautifully, lower the estimates and when the companies report slightly better results, the street starts their cheering. One has to look through the numbers - but from a technical trading point of view you just have to be ready to trade based on the earnings announcements. Here are some charts for the S&P , DJIA and a chart we pulled from a very interesting article on M&A activity which typically tends to peak around market tops.

ADDED: Another good read:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-31/quick-bull-vs-bear-case-8-charts

Link to article: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-beginning-end-bull-market-131106708.html 

Source Bloomberg/UBS:

From the charts below for SP500 and DJIA we expect sideways movement and possible new highs into Q4 due to a typically strong Q4 season for the markets and we would lighten up into this sideways and possible upward movement. We would not hesistate to write covered calls on long positions. We have done that already for many of our accounts. Many tobacco stocks appear overbought, so we would either sell these or hedge with puts or reduce cost basis via covered call strategy. We are long PM and LLY. Our MRK position got called away.

As you can see the MACD is getting extended as is the RSI reaching overbought conditions. But we expect this to last for sometime with minor pullbacks and sideways movements.

 

We would lighten up on biotech stocks and health insurance companies. We believe that Obamacare is a total disaster and will very likely get repealed if the GOP takes the White house. The premiums are unaffordable and we are seeing several co-ops going out of business due to high costs and then the insured are being put into a situation with no coverage and high costs. We believe this will not end well and there will be a new wave or change in the healthcare system in this nation. The current scenario is not sustainable and is designed heavily in the favor of insurance companies and drug companies. We also think these insurance companies may have reached a peak in their earnings cycle. Our net portfolio is short tech stocks. AAPL seems to have peaked and we do not expect any major move in AAPL - we still like NFLX - as Q4 is a strong season for them.

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team

Weekly Blog - Fed Decision on rates this week - What to expect and Market Action - What to buy/sell?

Fed Decision on rates this week - What to expect and Market Action

The Fed week is finally upon us. What is the Fed going to do - the grind and the news is unstoppable - it is discussed on every financial channel and news and now we have the heads of financial institutions and governments asking the Fed not to raise rates - really, now we need these knee jerk morons who have made a killing in the markets because of bubbles from the Fed's own making and decisions, to ask the Fed not to raise rates. I have never seen moments such as the ones we are seeing now or ever, since I started trading the markets over 20 years ago. This is unprecedented in its nature and irresponsible with even the IMF and EU asking the Fed publicly not to raise rates. Well, with over 5.5M job openings, the lowest rate of labor participation, unemployment rate at 5.1%, and Fed balance sheet at $4T - bubbles in stock markets, real estate - these morons want the Fed not to raise rates!! We think the Fed is in a corner (as we said before) and is scared to even budge on rates. The incessant speculation from the CNBS'ers (on purpose) and the non-stop blabber on Bloomberg is really annoying and frustrating - not a single person really knows what is going to happen - OK, we are going to say rates are not going up this week and the Fed will keep the same language - we may be wrong, but, at least we are not going to be blabbering all day about it. Expect volatility around the bonds, US dollar and gold when the Fed decision is announced.

Ok, let us get to the markets now - what do we expect to happen this week - Markets were up on Friday - as we said the markets have never been down on any 9/11 after the event. We expected that and were prepared for it. We are balanced in our portfolio short and long. We are short some semi stocks and overvalued companies and expect these to still move lower - we closed our AMBA short for a nice tidy profit. We were short AMBA from $115. We still think the stock is headed lower. We closed part of our short in MU, GPRO and shorted FIT.

We are long NFLX and BIDU,CYBR,MBLY. We know these are not exactly what we would like in our portfolio at this juncture - but we hedge these with options. The VIX is still trending down and based on our analysis this week from the markets and stocks on Friday, we expect the markets to head higher into the Fed decision day - very likely it will be volatile due to uncertainty from the Fed. 

Do not forget - this is options expiration week and end of quarter for Calendar Q4 and we will be heading into earnings season for Q3 and expect a bunch of surprises and warnings. We saw several charts that look like good trades heading into the Fed rate decision day on Thursday. Charts that look good on charts are shown here (as much as we hate biotech sector - it did not close below our 50week SMA and is tredning higher for the short term - we are short IBB and will likely have to roll that position out into the Oct expiration). Stocks that are looking good for trading are - AAPL,DIS,MCD,CAH,RH,ILMN,GILD and some other biotech stocks. You can check this report on our Market Reports page - here are the links (you can skim the charts quickly with our mouse-over chart feature):

1. Stocks with Buy signals
2. Stocks which close $2 or higher

Here are some of the charts we like for trading this coming week - 

 

 

 

Good luck trading.

Trucharts Team/Founder/CEO

Markets - Up and Down - What to do now - BUY or SELL?

Markets - Up and Down - What to do now - BUY or SELL?

Happy Labor day to all.

Well what do we think of the markets here and the direction. We stated in several blogs that markets were exhibiting topping action and we told our readers to take profits, sell rallies and reduce exposure or go short the semiconductor and biotech sector. We have been following this advice in our own portfolio. We have been net short since late June.

Markets have been bouncing from the recent crash and everyone was getting excited. This tells us that the people are still not scared enough and the folks on CNBS (got this of the web and I love it) are still very bullish in light of the market action. The VIX is still elevated and the ISEE call put ratio is still biased towards more put buying - we have not seen such a long string of the ISEE C/P ratio trend towards put buying. Markets dropped on Friday heading into the Labor day weekend. 

Major ETFs reflecting the DOW (ETF: DIA) and others have closed below their respective 100 week SMA. This is definitely not a good sign. We think the markets are headed lower to the 200d weekly SMA and maybe to the next support of 15000 for the DOW. We still recommend lightning up on your positions and take profits in any rally. Companies earnings forecasts are not strong and many are even lower than consensus forecasts. Just take a look at DE. JOY and the semi companies. Stocks are driven by earnings and stocks with their downward movements are indicating lower earnings coming in the future. Corporate buybacks and earnings number rigging along with Fed liquidity was what was driving the markets. You can expect short term rallies due to oversold conditions - but the trend is still down and we would wait before going net long. Insiders have been selling stocks at a rapid pace and they were doing so when the markets were topping - Major insiders in the biotech sector and semi sector dumped a lot of stock at the peak - this tells us that they got extremely rich and do not anticipate any higher prices - the markets were priced to perfection and the markets had gone up without even a 10% correction for over 3 years. We have shown some of charts below.

This past weekend the finance minister for China said that the China stock bubble had burst and this tells us that the Chinese government reactions and intervention in their stock markets is not working - and guess what happens - the Chinese citizens promptly move their money into real estate - the cycle never ends. We will have to wait and see how all the events play out in China. 

China is definitely slowing down and this is the world's second largest economy. They are mired in over capacity and nit driven by internal consumption. We think this is impacting the world economy and the commodity complex as China is the biggest consumer of the commodities.

Housing prices are again up in the US and heading into another bubble and we think this is definitely in the back of the Fed's thought process and with unemployment hitting the 5.1% well within the target range of full employment for the Fed - we think there is going to be pressure on the Fed to raise the Fed Funds rate. We have now the highest rate of employment participation (that means majority of the employable folks have stopped looking for a job).

From a stock perspective - we would not go long any of the semi stocks - we like SLAB possibly - but be mindful - you can take a position if you do not mind averaging down. We would hedge all our positions by selling covered calls and or you can sell puts if you want to own a stock. Now for shorts (be mindful we do not recommend shorting for amateurs - this is for experienced folks) - we still think IBB offers the best shorting opportunity here along with AMBA stock. We are short IBB and AMBA (since 115). Even though some of the indicators are oversold on a daily basis, the weekly indicators are not oversold yet.

We recommend watching this documentary (on youtube) on how OIL controls the world and how the "SEVEN SISTERS" control the world's oil: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtYOjMmEMeg - it is called the 'Secret of SEVEN SISTERS' - unbelievable. 

Check out our buy/sell strategies automated on your portfolio to see if your stock is still a buy or sell signal - try this on weekly and daily chart. Use the Stock charts page to check this. 

As we said last week - we are self funded and would like to get more subscribers so we can look for an investor to help us take the site to the next level - we would like to ask our readers and users to subscribe - it is a measly $9 or $15 per month to get the best feature set on the web and we know this since our returning user base is engaged on our site for more than 12 minutes a session. We use very minimal budget for marketing - we use our funds primarily for development, paying salaries to our developers, and servers, news/data feeds. 

Here is the link to the subscription service page: http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx 

Here are the weekly charts along with our trendlines drawn:

 

 

Good luck trading.

Trucharts team/Founder/CEO

Fed Speak - What to do with your portfolio this week and market direction - UP or DOWN!

Fed Speak - What to do with your portfolio this week and market direction - UP or DOWN!

We just went through one of the most volatile weeks in the markets since the dog days of 2008-2009 financial crisis. Is China slowing, what is the Fed going to do and is the world headed into a recession? So many questions and the answers are not very clear. From a volatility perspective, the VIX hit the highest levels on Monday last week when the DOW traversed over 4500 points - this has never happened before - there were huge opportunities to buy at the lows that day and make a huge profit - volatility is truly a trader's gift and an easy way to generate some very quick profits - if you are a technical trader it becomes even easier. You have to make your preferred stock list and watch those only else you will not be able to choose during big market moves, like the one we had last Monday 8/24. We did make money as we were net short into the market and would have really preferred to get into some stocks that tanked at the open - we knew that the  markets would bounce - since it was an oversold condition and markets did rebound into the end of the week - just go check some of the low prices for some of the top stocks on 8/24. Several stocks opened down over 20% and then recovered very nicely. That is why you have to have cash set aside for trading on volatile days - because the returns can be magnificent. 

Markets rebounded over 1000 points on the DOW late into the week and many stocks bounced off the lows - there was short covering and some buying buy the big funds since they saw this as a huge buying opportunity - we saw the fund managers discussing this on TV. Volatility numbers are still high and we would expect volatility this week also. Major trend-lines have been broken and we have to test the trend-lines and the previous support levels (which are now resistance levels) for all the indices.

Fundamentally we do not think the economy or the tech stocks have bottomed - China slowdown and the issues/headwinds they are facing from their bad loans, high debts, exports slowing, over capacity are going to have repercussions around the world. US economy is still strong with the jobs numbers still ahead of the 200K/month magic mark and we think the Fed sees this and is ready to pull the trigger in September. We still suspect whether the Fed will actually raise the Fed Funds rate in Sept. We wil have to wait and see - from our perspective we do not think they have the 'guts' to do it. 

China intervention into their stock markets was one of the worst ideas and then they have been so reactive to every little piece of economic news, that they are acting like a 2 year old's in a candy shop. Lowering RR ratios, cutting interest rates, injecting cash, and so many others drastic measures, it makes one wonder what really is going on in China. 

Is it really that bad!!

There was The Jackson Hole meeting this weekend and the Fischer indicated that the Fed would move towards hiking rates. They know there is a bubble and they are trying to defuse it before it becomes bigger and then they are left with no tools to fight it. We will just have to wait and see with the numerous number of crazy commentary on CNBC and Bloomberg non stop about the Fed's plans. It is getting really ridiculous!!

As we write this futures are down - we expected that heading into Mondays' - typically weak in recent weeks.

Anyway, we expect the markets to consolidate here within a 500 point range - with a topside target of 17000 and low of around 16000. S$P500 to be range bound between 1920 and 2040 range. NASDAQ which was primarily up because of biotech stocks should start seeing some pullback. 

Use this opportunity to lighten up on tech stocks - fundamentally there has been no change in their outlook and forecasts - the trend is down and we expect it to stay that way. With Apple's event coming Sept 9th, we expect that the tech stocks may stay range bound here. We like SLAB for short term trade. We are short AMBA (earnings on Sept 1),SWKS,INTC,PYPL and MU. Our shorts did well for us during this downdraft. We were discussing topping action in the markets and we were ready for it. Long NFLX. We use options to hedge all our positions.

Commodities - oil bounced - expect that to be short lived - we are heading into the slowest season for oil - post summer time. Still some money to be made from short term trading here - check out chart for USO and OIL. Possibly very oversold - should go up for short term. Gold Bounced - we are keeping a close eye on this - as it is tied to the dollar - but with the weaker currencies abroad, we think gold can shine - wait and see.

Here are the charts for DIA daily and weekly - Daily chart shows an oversold condition and weekly is not oversold yet. Watch these carefully along with the VIX. We always trade stocks which have underlying options and are very liquid. We like DIS for short term - looks oversold. Do not like biotech - short IBB.

 

 

Please check out our site and provide us your feedback and do check our lowest subscription rate in the industry for all the features we offer. Here are some links and thanks for reading and visiting/supporting our site - we are entirely self funded and still losing money but trying our best to provide our users a good experience to make sound and good investment decisions - we offer the automated buy/sell signal strategies for users to see if the stocks in their portfolio is a buy or a sell. Trust me it has saved me a lot of grief in stocks like RIG.SDRL,USO and many more. I am so glad we have that feature.   

We would love to get subscribers so we can keep the site going and it is the price of 2 lattes at Starbucks per month. 

For subscription visit: http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx

For features we offer visit: http://truchartscom.blogspot.com/p/why-is-trucharts.html

Good luck trading. Stay nimble.

Trucharts Team/Founder/CEO

Markets direction - check this amazing chart!

We got this chart from the article at the link below: Very interesting correlation..

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-20/commodities-plunging-2002-level-sends-investors-rushing-safety-overpriced-tech-megac

Here is the chart showing the markets relative to commodities - someone please tell me we are not in a bubble:

Stock Charts Free - Trucharts.com - Technical Analysis, MACD, ETFs, Dividend stocks, Charting, Chart, Best Charting sites, Free Charts, Stock Signals Strategies

Watch these charts closely this week..

Trucharts.com Blog Week ending 6/12/2015:

Watch these things and charts closely this week..

We did not have a chance to write a complete weekly blog last week due to some family emergencies. Finally got over these and now back to writing and watching and trading the markets this week. 

We are sure you must have been noticing the past few weeks how the big market players have been holding the DOW at 18000, SP500 at 2100 and the NASDAQ at 5000 - rigging - you have to wonder. Every week (for the past six weeks), there has been at least one day a week for a positive 3 digit move in the markets and then we have several - what we call - consolidation days - and then we have had news on Greece everyday impacting the moves in the indices. It is becoming like a same story different day.. Still there has been no resolution on the Greece situation, and then we are seeing some news today that the Greeks have not come forth with a solution that pleases the IMF and the Eurozone. Let us see how this unfolds.

Now back to our markets and China - an amazing bubble brewing there in the markets. A billionaire is made everyday and the three drop out due to improper financial conduct by their respective companies - just take a look at Hanergy as an example. 

We think the underlying fundamentals are weak and many stocks are exhibiting weak technicals, and in addition, we think the tech stocks are looking weak. We strongly recommend taking profits in this sector.

Here are some charts from our markets we are watching closely this week. Keep an eye on the 13 week SMA, the 50 week SMA and the 100 week SMA. Amazing support levels for all the ETFs below.

Charts Weekly: 

Check the chart for:

CVX at critical support - we think this could go to 90.
DIA going to 50 week SMA?
IBB at 13 week SMA - still looking good - still not closing below 13 week SMA.
IWM - Russell 2000 ETF - still strong
MMM - heading to 50 week SMA - should be a good buy point for a bounce
SPY- at week SMA - great support here.
TXN - at 50 week SMA - looking weak - may bounce here
XLK ETF - technology starting to show weakness. (See INTC chart below)

 

 

 

 

 

We are long BIDU,CYBR,TWTR,Z, and short AEM,AMBA. Closed DTEA, LLY and UA this week for a good profit.  

IPOs to watch this week: Fitbit - Wednesday - FIT.

Critical earnings this week:

Adobe Systems (ADBE), FedEx FDX, Oracle (ORCL), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Kroger (KR), CarMax (KMX), and KB Home (KBH), DTEA on Tuesday.

Check out our special subscription offer - just $90 for the whole year. The best deal of any technical and stock charting website on the web. Here is the link: 
http://www.trucharts.com/truCharts_Services.aspx

Check out the results of our backtest feature - the fastest on the web: This is for IBB ETF with a 8 SMA crosses 12 SMA and exit is 11 days after crossover - the short needs to be optimized - but the long strategy shows a 174% return.